tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post4361273350488404659..comments2024-01-05T10:11:27.498+00:00Comments on Soot and Ashes: The World AFTER the Crash: 94% of you disagree with me. Interesting. But maybe, just maybe, I'm right. And Hope is here.bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger132125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-24276923512099610012009-06-01T23:37:01.422+01:002009-06-01T23:37:01.422+01:00I dont know about you but I'm getting a bit sick o...I dont know about you but I'm getting a bit sick of seeing "It hath been foretold."<br /><br />Dont ya have another catch phrase?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-79903751735500579122009-06-01T19:36:37.212+01:002009-06-01T19:36:37.212+01:00Now Keith is saying "wait two years". LOL. Keith, ...Now Keith is saying "wait two years". LOL. Keith, you don't think logically. You don't use hard analysis. Rather you use your "feelings" and "gut instincts". <br /><br />If you are going to say we are out of the woods, then post charts, graphs, facts, etc.... But please don't give us your feelings.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-63696083784695526942009-06-01T19:22:51.510+01:002009-06-01T19:22:51.510+01:00OF COURSE when you throw a trillion dollar party, ...OF COURSE when you throw a trillion dollar party, there will be short term money made in markets. <br /><br />But any profits made in the next year or two, due to the trillion dollar bomb, it will eat away quickly by inflation.<br /><br />And the nominal profits you make, once adjusted in real dollars (inflation adjusted), will be near nil. So it's all fake.<br /><br />So what's Keith celebrating here?<br />A money bomb rally, at the cost of devased currency and big time inflation? <br /><br />Behold the next bubble! The Fed stimulus bubble, built upon massive public debt. Bush did the same thing. Only his was privatized corporate debt (now made public debt).<br /><br />Start moving your assets out of USD.gutless and lazynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-79271731087324373682009-06-01T18:11:10.907+01:002009-06-01T18:11:10.907+01:00oh really, Keith? what ever happened to "things ar...oh really, Keith? what ever happened to "things are not ever returning the normal after the magnitude of what they have done"?...quietly dropped it? we are in the eye of the hurricane...there is the other shoe still to drop...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-76260495742742651522009-06-01T16:25:57.765+01:002009-06-01T16:25:57.765+01:00Keith,
exactly, GM goes bankrupt today and the ma...Keith,<br /><br />exactly, GM goes bankrupt today and the market goes up!<br /><br />Why, because one economic indicator was not as bad as the expectation, and another one was better than expected.<br /><br />You must understand that there is an orchestration -- both covert and overt -- of pumping the markets. The big players (governments and banking institutions) are in it together.<br /><br />You will notice that every time there is bad news, the market goes up. The excuse they use is that "it's not as bad as we thought". Here are some examples:<br /><br />1) GDP declies 6%...market goes up because not as bad as expected.<br /><br />2) 550k people lose jobs in April (really 770k)...market goes up because not as bad as expected.<br /><br />3) GM announces it is bankrupt...market goes up because some economic indicator released on the same day as the announcement is not as bad as expected.<br /><br /><br />Rigged. Totally rigged. What do you think the global govt meetings and the constant meetings between the U.S. govt. and the bankers is all about? They are about pumping the market, especially on the days when the bad news comes out. By pumping the market on those days, it tells the sheeple that things really are OK. There's nothing to worry about. Be confident! It is all designed to instill confidence. Confidence. That's what it's all about. If people are confident they will spend and invest, which will get the economy back on track.<br /><br />But this is a false confidence...manufactured confidence (about the only thing we're good at anymore!).<br /><br />If you look at the future for America and its ability to produce wealth, I'd say that it's not so bright; certainly not bright enough to warrant equities to be where they are today.<br /><br />The bankers are going to fleece people one more time; maybe two more times, with mini-equity bubbles like we are seeing now. They did it after the dotcom crash by not letting the Dow go below 8500; and they are doing the same today, trying to set a floor of 8500 again.<br /><br />The last time this happened they were successful in creating another bubble based on housing. They can't do that this time around however unless they find a new vehicle in which to create one. But perhaps they will.<br /><br />Anyway, my observation is that the market is massively rigged right now and is heading for a fall this fall, and perhaps even this summer.<br /><br />My "spidey sense" is tingling. I'm at the verge of shorting the Dow at this point but may wait a bit longer to see if the grifters can pump it over 9000.i've had itnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-15564984127423531422009-06-01T15:34:07.383+01:002009-06-01T15:34:07.383+01:00Sorry Keith... but a little news from the ground h...Sorry Keith... but a little news from the ground here. St. Louis used to be a big deal in autos. All of the Big Three had plants here. Vans from GM, Explorers from Ford, Minivans and Rams from Dodge/Chrysler... all three have bitten the dust (or are in the process of biting the dust) in the past two years. Ford plant demolished. Chrysler, bankrupt and soon to close Fenton, MO location. GM bankrupt today - who knows what will become of Wentzville plant. The jobs related to those industries feed multiple employment scenarios. Because of a motorcycle injury, I am limited to what I can do at the moment so on a lark, I decided to go do a little house shopping. Talked with a FSBO seller trying to unload his place to take a job out of state. In the conversation he makes the thinly veiled threat of a higher price if not sold soon "because will list with a realtor who will fetch a higher price". My Smug Bastard brain is saying "yeah right buddy... I guess you've not heard about the recession going on right now and are unaware of the multiple properties like your own that have been up for sale in the same community for over two years now and the price cuts that have taken place during those two years..." The attitude of some sellers is still in for an adjustment. Price cuts are of the nearly inconsequential type and are coming in dribs and drabs. I've seen properties in the past three years in the aforementioned idiot's hometown go through FSBO at high price, no activity, for sale via realtor at slightly lower price, no activity, back to FSBO with price cut one and then again with price cut two. We are still looking at more creative financing arrangements going bust for the next two years. We are at "false hope" not real hope.<br /><br />Smug BastardAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-11549193604674510502009-06-01T08:43:40.704+01:002009-06-01T08:43:40.704+01:00For a counter-view on the rainbows and lollypops, ...<I>For a counter-view on the rainbows and lollypops, have a good read of this... (funny and informative)</I>.<br /><br /><br />That's a good read and it's dire implications are that Keith himself has slid back into Denial.<br /><br />-GonzoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-12783233332274660332009-06-01T07:27:58.891+01:002009-06-01T07:27:58.891+01:00Keith,
For a counter-view on the rainbows and lol...Keith,<br /><br />For a counter-view on the rainbows and lollypops, have a good read of this... (funny and informative)<br /><br />http://mandelman.ml-implode.com/2009/05/stop-blowing-sunshine-up-my-skirt-recovery-my-aunt-petunia/Saulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11223726282638853316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-35390266558763647002009-06-01T06:51:32.153+01:002009-06-01T06:51:32.153+01:00The way I see it - the USA is not exceptional and ...The way I see it - the USA is not exceptional and is now on the downward slide to serfdom. The Asian tigers will come to dominate the global economy. They already are.<br /><br />The US is fundamentally broken. Yes, Bernanke and Obama may be able to paper over the wound for a short period of time. How long that may be is anybody's guess. We're already seeing the dollar begin to slide and a dislocation in the bond market. <br /><br />The US simply has nothing left to bring prosperity. The populace is dumbed down to the point of knuckle dragging and drooling. The productive capacity of the US has been effectively dismantled. <br /><br />I honestly don't know what you are trying to predict here Keith. Are you trying to say we are in recovery right now? In what way? A recovery of jobs? A recovery of standard of living? Or simply a recovery of stock value? But what about the value of that stock in relation to the value of the dollar? <br /><br />Your prediction lacks definition my friend. <br /><br />-GonzoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-8663575866399128772009-06-01T06:38:24.743+01:002009-06-01T06:38:24.743+01:00The money isn't getting in to the hands of the nee...The money isn't getting in to the hands of the neediest. There is no turnover of dollars.<br /><br />The M1 multiplier is at 0.93. Institutions and people are hoarding the stimulus money or its replacing money that was lost. This 1.8 Trillion stimulus will have the same impact as Bush $600 million tax rebate (m1 multiplier 3.2). <br /><br />We would've been better off giving everyone $3000 than shoring up these bankrupt corporations.lesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-72493878605335216662009-06-01T06:20:13.687+01:002009-06-01T06:20:13.687+01:00"-As someone else said, it will push house prices ..."-As someone else said, it will push house prices down 75% overnight. Remember in the late 1970's Volkner raised rates to kill the over heated housing market and to tame inflation? <br /><br />With that thought, why did house prices go through the roof for the last 8 years? <br /><br />Low interest rates combined with easy credit.<br /><br />We're not going to see 2005 again."<br /><br />Let's remember what Japan did. The authors of quantitative easing. Real estate still went below average.<br /><br />My guess is everything will go up in price greatly, house prices will continue to fall but will stabilize at some point during this period.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-52443907576546796762009-06-01T06:10:48.156+01:002009-06-01T06:10:48.156+01:00Got Balls and Money?
Invest now!
Buy gold! It's ...Got Balls and Money?<br /><br />Invest now!<br /><br />Buy gold! It's so great and cheap, its going to be $5000 an ounce soon!<br /><br />Buy Real Estate! It only goes up. People who own it never work plus property taxes are fun! Weeeee....<br /><br />Buy Dollars! Dollars are paper and backed by the full faith of the United States Government. <br /><br />Buy Stocks! Wow! They are paper also and manipulated by the full faith of business people and corporate America!<br /><br />And while you do that, don't work or produce anything. Just talk shit, push a pencil, and pick up a paycheck.Devestmenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13704339847524381868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-42666924275509659922009-06-01T06:08:32.274+01:002009-06-01T06:08:32.274+01:00As in it's early in terms of adoption. It sounds ...As in it's early in terms of adoption. It sounds like crazy talk. Hell, it even seems crazy to me.<br /><br />But it's right.<br /><br />It'll just take a year or so to prove it.<br /><br />Meanwhile, GM goes bankrupt today, tens of thousands more lose their jobs. And we're in Hope?<br /><br />Man, that's crazy.bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-79666592486925004282009-06-01T06:04:24.085+01:002009-06-01T06:04:24.085+01:00Why after 117 posts are you saying your "hope call...Why after 117 posts are you saying your "hope call" is early??<br /><br />Thats not what you said in the beginning of the thread.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-61480271926787276342009-06-01T05:54:03.611+01:002009-06-01T05:54:03.611+01:00"A lot of those Option ARMs and ARM resets have al...<I>"A lot of those Option ARMs and ARM resets have already defaulted or have refinanced at locked in low rates</I>No they haven't.<br /><br />And just for kickers, remember that the banks are still booking a fully amortized payment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-49320259533787698302009-06-01T05:13:35.893+01:002009-06-01T05:13:35.893+01:00The 94% and negative comments really aren't surpri...The 94% and negative comments really aren't surprising - not at all. Most of you came here because you saw the downfall about to happen, or you came here after the downfall happened. Nobody came here for rah-rah stuff.<br /><br />But 94% of you are unwilling or unable to pivot. Either today - which is DEFINITELY early, or maybe even a year or five years from now.<br /><br />And that's dangerous. When things were going gangbusters, you needed to pivot and realize they were going to go to sh*t. And when things were going to sh*t, you need (eventually) to pivot and realize that business cycles recover.<br /><br />It's impossible to pivot at the tippy topa and then hit it again at the very bottom. Impossible. But as long as you come close either way, you'll do fine.<br /><br />Look at that graph again. The point of maximum investment return potential at the bottom is during panic and depression. So if you think my Hope call is early (hint - it is), and you think we're in panic and depression, then GREAT, you've identified we're in panic and depression.<br /><br />And then you should know what to do.<br /><br />Just look at the chart. And if you invest - houses, stocks, oil, corn, whatever, be ready to take some pain, as you'll be early too.<br /><br />But two years from now, you'll look back, and it will all be clear.bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-84885607473215175162009-06-01T04:18:31.298+01:002009-06-01T04:18:31.298+01:00It's not "The End of the World is Here and Things ...It's not "The End of the World is Here and Things Will Never Ever Get Better"<br /><br />Okay. But every man, woman, and child in this country owes somebody around $200k in today's dollars.<br /><br />When those people are not paid, and surely they cannot possibly be, how will that play out over the next 10-20 years?<br /><br />Maybe they'll accept some (more bad)checks. Then we'll blame them for trying to cash them immediately.<br /><br /><A HREF="http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/6437320.html" REL="nofollow">Like Continental did with their pilots recently.</A>"...the pilots — seven men and two women — were afraid of losing major chunks of their pensions because of the financial difficulties the airline industry experienced in 2005.<br /><br />Around that time, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and US Airways filed for bankruptcy protection, reneged on their pension promises and handed over the plans to a federal administrator to make good on a portion of the pension obligations.<br /><br />The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.’s maximum guarantee is paid in periodic annuity payments instead of lump sums and is far less than a typical airline pilot pension. This year, for a 65-year-old person, the maximum is $54,000.<br /><br />“If you look at it from the pilots’ perspective, it’s understandable why they might have pursued this plan..."..."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-29301034398411817022009-06-01T03:48:56.821+01:002009-06-01T03:48:56.821+01:00In my metro area, rush hour traffic is as bad as i...<B>In my metro area, rush hour traffic is as bad as it always been, the malls are packed, cars are selling, SF homes are receiving multiple offers, and hotels are booked.</B>Same in Seattle. <br />Traffic is very heavy, malls are packed. Houses are selling.<br />If you go to windermere site, you'll see more pending than active. Of course, some newer crap for $499000 stays there for 365 days and more but good houses for reasonable price are going fast.<br />By the way, rent is going up too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-24351638248373685102009-06-01T03:41:34.619+01:002009-06-01T03:41:34.619+01:00>Get ready for 20% interest rates.
That'll...<B>>Get ready for 20% interest rates.<br /><br />That'll make housing drop by another 75% overnight.</B>If you buy a $300000 house with 20% downpayment at 5% mortgage rate now, you'll have same monthly payments as you buy a $97000 house with 20% downpayment at 20% mortgage rate.<br /><br />http://www.mlcalc.com/<br /><br />Will it go from $300K to $97K? I really doubt. <br />Will mortgage rates will go from 5% to 20%? Yep, it's likely. I've seen it happening before (not in the US).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-54593730933874407602009-06-01T03:30:41.597+01:002009-06-01T03:30:41.597+01:00Keith,
With interest rates at 20% housing will dr...Keith,<br /><br />With interest rates at 20% housing will drop like a rock, and the dollar will shoot up. Look to Iceland for evidence of this.<br /><br />The bigger problem is with the huge debt we have, high interest rates will crush the US financial system. There won't be any way to pay back this debt.<br /><br />Obama screwed us all with his multi-trillion bailouts. We could have taken the pain, the shared sacrifice, and moved on. But no- instead there was talk of sacrifice and we kicked the can a few years. Then it's going to blow up on us.<br /><br />Sad thing is there was enough people behind Obama that we could have endured this hardship and become stronger. Instead we just got let down Big Time. <br /><br />20% interest rates will kill the country but at that time the dollar will be extremely attractive.<br /><br />And housing won't sell for $500K at that time- you will have a completely illiquid market or people just walking away or not paying, like an amplification of what we have today.<br /><br />-MikeMike Huntnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-37825352814003812852009-06-01T03:28:19.630+01:002009-06-01T03:28:19.630+01:00I just bought a house.
Am I stupid? Is it too earl...I just bought a house.<br />Am I stupid? Is it too early?<br /><br />We'll see. I think a few ears later I'll take some change out of my pocket and pay off my mortgage.<br /><br />Yep, I'm talking about inflation. <br /><br />Instead of having 100K in US dollars I prefer to have a house.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-42813761387098225922009-06-01T03:25:14.855+01:002009-06-01T03:25:14.855+01:00"..current events form future trends.."
Listen to..."..current events form future trends.."<br /><br />Listen to the man to gain an understanding on why what the gov. is doing is only leading us to the greatest depression of all time...<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzQabWBVTg0<br /><br />I once had hope, but now only have fear. The massive bailouts have sealed our fate! Thank you Mr. Obama for being stupid. Thank you for trying to save us by listening to the morons who got us in this mess to fix things. For someone who has no experience in anything, he sure does try to give people the perception to wisdom. He will be remembered as the worst president of all time. President Bush, you've been saved.<br /><br />But, you're right Kieth, the recession is over!!! Whohaaa… Now for the shortest recovery in known history, we're talking months here folks, maybe a year.<br /><br />Complete economic meltdown, on a global scale, is now coming. The mother of all bubbles; the one that will end it all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-43907979526052180892009-06-01T03:22:49.780+01:002009-06-01T03:22:49.780+01:00The American economy is Humpty; it is irrevocably ...<B>The American economy is Humpty; it is irrevocably broken - nothing is going to put it together again. </B>So, pick up your crap and get out of the United States!!!<br />Go to a country with better economy! Go to Mexico, Australia or go to Europe.<br />Nope, you will not go. You'll stay here. You know why? Because it's better here. :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-65382503132565233952009-06-01T03:19:13.828+01:002009-06-01T03:19:13.828+01:00Well if 94% are against you
Maybe your wrongPerfe...<B>Well if 94% are against you<br /><br />Maybe your wrong</B>Perfect time!<br />Most people (94%) are shitting their pants. It's time to get out and do some action.<br /><br />You guys were saying for months: Buy when there is blood on streets. Didn't you? <br />Here it is. Most people are in their shelters afraid to do anything. Why aren't you buying? Because you have no guts!<br /><br />Of course, it's way easier to say later: Ohhh, I should have bought earlier. :(Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6568749253826790814.post-57700325139939709042009-06-01T03:13:43.716+01:002009-06-01T03:13:43.716+01:00Massive deflation or massive inflation. Still can'...<B>Massive deflation or massive inflation. Still can't get a sound idear of which it will be, but neither is good.</B>Inflation!!!<br />There is no other way to get out of our debt. Only inflation.<br />Maybe nor right now but later.<br />I've seen this happening in Russia. I feel it's coming here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com