November 20, 2008


34 comments:

Dr. Huxtable said...

CNBC says last two days have been worst 2 days since 1987.

We must have racked up at least 8"Black Mondays/Tuesdays" in the last 6 weeks. Absolutely, historically, and painfully, unbelievable.

Fast Money says tomorrow could be wild ride; could go to 6900 and shoot up to 8000, another 1,000 point trading range day. Years of stock moves in hours and minutes. Unbelievable.

Mark in San Diego said...

"Mark's ruler overlay on chart theory" - go to the Yahoo Dow MAX chart - take a ruler from 1935 to 1983 (or therabouts) and you will see if that trend from 1935 to 1980 is continued, then the result - the DOW should be around 4000 in historic terms. . .I have always used this to find fair value for a stock, and it often works. . .it discounts bubbles. . .so - we have another 3000 points to drop before fair value - and of course there is often overshoot - so if the DOW reaches 3500, then buy.

Anonymous said...

Ohhhh, God....

Afterthought said...

No support.

But beware!

The government can initiate short term mega rallies with the printing press.

Next big day?

Options expiration!

keith said...

Lives are being ruined right now.

Thank you Alan Greenspan.

Thank you unregulated hedge funds.

I can't believe what I'm seeing.

You'll tell your children about this. You know, when you're all gathered around the fire in your cave.

Nevada Burning said...

I think it is interesting to see how the Dow takes off in the mid 1990's right about the time internet trading came into use. Everybody has become an expert on markets and anybody with few thousand dollars can contribute to any financial bubble CNBC can create.

Maybe now, people will look to realistic investments, like stable blue chips with decent dividend yields and higher yield savings/money market accounts.

We became a nation of gamblers betting on how long a story can hold. I am glad to see the market in free fall. Oil will probably hit $30 a barrel and the Dow will stabilise somewhere around 5000 right where they should have been all along.

vanilla ice said...

Ahahahaha! Oh my god that's hilarious.

And remember all those people who said TARP was the legislative equivalent of a miracle from god? They said we'd better pass it or else? Wow that TARP really helped out a lot! In the end we're screwed even more then we thought.

Just look at that graph. Talk about trendlines. To go back to average over the past 80 years, the DOW still has a cliff to fall off of.

Who said increasing equities is an entitlement? Who said my 401K scam would always go up?

No one considered it could go down and crash like it's doing. The government and genious financial advisors told you what to do as they held a psychological gun to your head.

Perma-bears have won for once!!!!

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

I was going to get back into stocks when the S&P was around 750. Now we're there but I don't believe we've seen the last of the bad news. I'd rather miss a bottom then catch a falling knife.

A friend of mine has a GM car with a lease that's about to expire. He wants another GM car but the only companies that offer leases now are Japanese. I think America may be out of the car business in the near future.

vanilla ice said...

"Oil will probably hit $30 a barrel and the Dow will stabilise somewhere around 5000 right where they should have been all along."

You're so correct. Inflation, deflation, I don't see how the stock market won't keep going down.

That second graph is one for the ages. It makes the housing market Ponzi Scheme look like an ant hill.

Anonymous said...

Looks like 3,500

It's a scam said...

What will happen when students can't get any more loans and health insurers begin denying claims like there's no tomorrow?

What will happen when there will be no credit cards to cover the out-of-pocket expenses?

Who the f* decided that keeping the 401k as an "investment" in mutual funds and other shenanigans is a good idea to build retirement savings?

What will happen when cities start going bankrupt? NYC is about to go down in terms of public services like police, fire department, and mass transit.

401k - SCAM
College education - SCAM
Private US "Healthcare"/Medicare/Big Pharma - SCAM and major ripoff too.
Social Security - SCAM
Housing market, ARM, NINJA - SCAM
Banks - SCAM
The strong, highly touted Greenspan US economy, powered by happy go-lucky consumers hitting the malls - SCAM
The Federal Reserve Corporation - BIGGEST SCAM EVER!

Lady Di said...

BAM! 10% return on DXD today.
It shouldn't be this easy.

Miss Goldbug said...

After seeing that chart, I'm rethinking the market falling lower than 6000 when its all said and done.

Anonymous said...

After the crash of '29-'32, it wasn't until 1954 that it returned to the '29 top in nominal terms...

Adjusted for inflation 1987.

NEARLY SIXTY YEARS.

A corporate crime wave of Biblical proportions.

Anonymous said...

if you have opened a link
open this one biggest crash since the great one
squidly77

Anonymous said...

Hey Baby Boomers !!!!

No reitrement for YOU ! snicker!

Now, you'll be fighting for those WalMart greeter jobs, and your kids are going to HATE YOU for what you've done!

hahahahahahah !!!!

The DUMBING DOWN of America has been COMPLETED !

Have a nice day!

jim said...

Thank god for DXD.

Psycho said...

Volume is picking up and we may be moving from the panic to capitulation stage. Pick some stocks you like and from today’s closing price subtract 40-50% and place limit bids. PFE 7.80, BP 22.13 etc…

Do it now because later the brokers will be so bogged down you won’t even be able to log on or get someone on the phone.

Psycho said...

“Dr. Huxtable “Fast Money says tomorrow” … Oh yes the Sheeple on Crack show. When this is all said and done they will be doing penny stock infomercials.

Anonymous said...

Depends which slope of the graph you prefer. From 1955 to 1970 You are looking at Dow 2500. From 1965ish to 1980 and you are looking at Dow 1000. From 1980 to 1995 then Dow 7000.

Average them out and you get Dow 3500

Devestment said...

We are in the last months of a cash bubble administration that is passing off to the competition.

It is in their interest to do nothing and drop the mess on the new mans desk.

You know damn well those good old boys from the Bush administration are delighting in ruining the reputation of the Democratic Party and their politically correct poster boy with this mess.

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

What we're witnessing is a cleansing of the rot built-up in our economy - more losses will continue for quite sometime.

I was speaking with a nurse the other night at a (much more empty) pub in Huntington Beach.

He remains smug, saying how he'll "always be in demand". As someone running a healthcare business, I see more and more dependancy on the consumer's ability to actually pay for services. When people can't pay, and tax-payer's are tight on cash as there are now, fees come down. He wasn't so smug after our conversion, and looked down into his glass of beer, nursing it much more slowly.

Got Popcorn?

Anonymous said...

I believe that the market price will be more like what it was right before 911 ,where-ever the value was at that time .

Anonymous said...

Cramer plan:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27826519

Anonymous said...

If I ask my neighbor to help me build my house and I help him build his house and our other neighbors do the same, why doe we even need money?

If I farm my land and raise animals and my neighbor does the same and we share in each other's harvest why do I need to fear?

If I give my excess to the community to help provide for those who are not able-bodied or able-minded or are old and my neighbor does the same, will that not benefit all even if only some of us are able and willing to do the work necessary?

Why is money so important? Can you not imagine any other way of life?


Land will be very inexpensive very soon I imagine. Why bother with a crappy house in a deserted landscape?

Build your own house and help your neighbor build his/hers.

You can build a solid, long-lasting and efficient home and have farmable land for pennies on the dollar for what it costs you to commute to work to earn the money to give to the banks to borrow more to pay the builder, bank, broker...you end up tired and no better off than if you just quit your job for a year after saving up 30K and built it yourself.

Anonymous said...

China fears job riots

BEIJING, China (CNN) -- China's job outlook is "grim," and the global financial crisis could cause more layoffs and more labor unrest until the country's economic stimulus package kicks in next year, the nation's minister of human resources and social security said Thursday.
Thousands of graduates crowd a jobs fair in Nanjing but vacancies are becoming harder to find.

Thousands of graduates crowd a jobs fair in Nanjing but vacancies are becoming harder to find.
Click to view previous image
1 of 2
Click to view next image

The stimulus package, unveiled earlier this month, will pump $585 billion into rebuilding communities destroyed by the May earthquake, constructing railways, housing, airports and highways, and funding other projects.

China is most concerned about the growing labor unrest, the human resources minister, Yin Weimin, said at a news conference. The increase in unrest has paralleled the increase of business and factory closings and job losses.

Wind Farmer said...

Add to book list:

World Made by Hand, James Kunstler

Anonymous said...

"What will happen when students can't get any more loans and health insurers begin denying claims like there's no tomorrow?

What will happen when there will be no credit cards to cover the out-of-pocket expenses?

Who the f* decided that keeping the 401k as an "investment" in mutual funds and other shenanigans is a good idea to build retirement savings?

What will happen when cities start going bankrupt? NYC is about to go down in terms of public services like police, fire department, and mass transit.

401k - SCAM
College education - SCAM
Private US "Healthcare"/Medicare/Big Pharma - SCAM and major ripoff too.
Social Security - SCAM
Housing market, ARM, NINJA - SCAM
Banks - SCAM
The strong, highly touted Greenspan US economy, powered by happy go-lucky consumers hitting the malls - SCAM
The Federal Reserve Corporation - BIGGEST SCAM EVER!"

Hey Keith long time no talk for me!
I was dissapointed with HP closing down and I didn't like the new blog at 1st but like HP this blog has grown on me to be riveting and the 1st thing I do in the morn. I had to copy and paste above to discuss the underlining problem. You know what I think of boomers!! This is there own demise and if you look at the CEO's and the people especially in school education they are run by boomers to make a killing on the students trying to make something of themselves because they are raised in a system which tells them to go to school. This let's the boomers keep their ridiculous lifestyle so they can BUY AND SPEND on expensive cars and condos on the beach. They have been fianced by the people under them for the last 25-30 and there greed, arrogance and pride will not let them give up to let the future generation do good or better than them. I FUCKING HATE BOOMERS!!! The caused this so they can buy thier $2 mill condos in boca raton and drive the black S class to show off to everyone that they made it. YOu know the sign is a black benz to tell everyone you made it!!! FUck them they ruined our country for thier own selfish interest!!! Thanks Barney (the clown) Frank, Mozillo, Wagoner,Ford,Huizenga, Bush, Clinton, Paulson Dodd, etc...
THey are all boomers which need to just hurry up and die off so the gen x'ers can save the country!!!

rich in fl

Anonymous said...

World Made By Hand is a good read.

I heard he was working on part two

Anonymous said...

The graph shows the great shoveling of 401K money beginning in the 1980's. The great 401K ponzi pushed the Dow beyond the real economy or company fundamentals. The Dow is still inflated because people are stuck in retirement funds hoping to recover their losses.

Could you write something on this, Kevin?

Mammoth said...

Anon 9:19 a.m . nailed it.

We are slowly working on this very thing, while still holding down the day-jobs and getting prepared.

Anyone else?

-Mammoth

Anonymous said...

"...delighting in ruining the reputation of the Democratic Party..."

With just the slightest discipline they could have waited a half year but no.

They started in by saying it is the fault of a guy six months away from taking office.

Then they sobered up and re-conjugated to "will be" his fault. Sure fooled me.

About a third of the populace wanks vigorously in agreement.

It's a scam said...

Hey Rich in FL,

I don't get it: what does this have to do with my post? Is it that all the scams I mentioned are a creation of the boomers so that they can live off the future generations??

I had to copy and paste above to discuss the underlining problem. You know what I think of boomers!! This is there own demise and if you look at the CEO's and the people especially in school education they are run by boomers to make a killing on the students trying to make something of themselves because they are raised in a system which tells them to go to school.

Anonymous said...

"After the crash of '29-'32, it wasn't until 1954 that it returned to the '29 top in nominal terms..."

And it only took 5 years with dollar-cost averaging and dividend reinvestment to get back in the black:
http://www.fool.com/news/foth/2002/foth020801.htm

...so what's your point?