November 19, 2008

One more time, Here's Ben Bernanke, in his 2002 "Helicopter Speech" telling us exactly what he is going to do. Ignore this at your peril.


Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt's devaluation.

Each of the policy options I have discussed so far involves the Fed's acting on its own. In practice, the effectiveness of anti-deflation policy could be significantly enhanced by cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities. A broad-based tax cut, for example, accommodated by a program of open-market purchases to alleviate any tendency for interest rates to increase, would almost certainly be an effective stimulant to consumption and hence to prices. Even if households decided not to increase consumption but instead re-balanced their portfolios by using their extra cash to acquire real and financial assets, the resulting increase in asset values would lower the cost of capital and improve the balance sheet positions of potential borrowers. A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous "helicopter drop" of money.

Of course, in lieu of tax cuts or increases in transfers the government could increase spending on current goods and services or even acquire existing real or financial assets. If the Treasury issued debt to purchase private assets and the Fed then purchased an equal amount of Treasury debt with newly created money, the whole operation would be the economic equivalent of direct open-market operations in private assets.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Rick Wagoner (GM CEO) now threatens us - like Paulson/Bernanke - that if nothing is done to save the "Big 3" (soon to be "Little 3") that the economy faces devestating consequences.

This short-sighted, and greedy man should have known what was to happen if GM continued on their reckless course months ago.

Now, we're being asked to bail-out more financial elite, while the rest of the country suffers.

Mr. Wagoner, as a business man, should know that if a business is fundamentally insolvement, that it must be allowed to fail.

No amount of money pumped at them, or Ford or Chrystler, will fix this problem.

Watch, as Wagoner and friends try to desperately acquire capital to save their sinking ships.

I'm not sure if there's enough hot-buttered popcorn left to really appreciate the coming die-off of the "Big 3".

Chuck Ponzi said...

Wow,

That paragraph should be required reading in schools everywhere. It should be emblazoned on everyone's mirror in red lipstick.

You want to know what's going to happen?

You just read it.

Chuck

satan said...

Ben is on his way out. The new guy will "fix" the economy the right way, with prosperity and change for all.

Your friend in DC,
SATAN

Anonymous said...

I like that the helicopter dropping money is an AH-1 Sea Cobra probably added to intimidate with its rocket launchers and at the same time entice with its bales of cash.

The Cobra is just as confusing and perplexing as Ben's speech. I still can't make heads or tails of it.

From Ben's Speech: "accommodated by a program of open-market purchases to alleviate any tendency for interest rates to increase"

What the f is an "open - market purchase?"

From Ben's speech: "Even if households decided not to increase consumption but instead re-balanced their portfolios by using their extra cash to acquire real and financial assets, the resulting increase in asset values would lower the cost of capital and improve the balance sheet positions of potential borrowers."

So in other words we're going to f people with capital and savings to help borrowers. Wow that's great, let's discourage investment while encouraging recklessness.

I don't know, but it seems like these monetary bombs did as much, probably more, harm then good.

I'm going to have to read this over again tonight and build a diagram to try and figure out just what in the world he's talking about.

blogger said...

I'm disappointed there aren't many comments on this thread.

Yes, it's wonky. But it's like getting tomorrow's lottery numbers today. It's like reading Manias, Panics and Crashes in 2004.

We know the future. It's only a matter of when. It hath been foretold.

It's like Hitler's Mein Kampf.

There should be no surprises. And yet, there will be. People will say "nobody saw it coming."

You did.

Thanks for checking out this thread. It's too bad that 99.99999999999999999999% of the world population hasn't.

Anonymous said...

I read it and have been acting upon this for a couple years. a devalued dollar and lack of oil in the not to distant future is going to make for a very ugly scene.

Thanks for the post Keith.

Anonymous said...

I read it.

I've been buying DJP and tip-toeing back into stocks (IVV), hopefully as an inflation hedge.

make sense?

I'm just too chicken to jump in with both feet. I'm still less than 2% in stocks (sold off in Oct '07 and Feb '08)

Anonymous said...

Ben Said - "If the Treasury issued debt to purchase private assets and the Fed then purchased an equal amount of Treasury debt with newly created money, the whole operation would be the economic equivalent of direct open-market operations in private assets."

So basically The Treasury issues bonds. It sells these bonds to the Fed. The Treasury then can go out and buy companies, just like it is doing today. The Fed pays for the bonds with its super duper printing press.

So Keith, you are right. That is exactly what's going on right now. Is there hidden talk about money bombs in this speech as well?

I still don't understand the whole thing but am working on it. I swear he makes his speeches as academic and cryptic as possible to mystify a population into not questioning it. And then 10 years later when everyone realizes what he did, he can say "we'll it was right in my speech and everyone either agreed or didn't care."

Anonymous said...

"the Fed then purchased an equal amount of Treasury debt with newly created money"

Grand Theft Nation

Anonymous said...

I read it and I have to say it's hard to follow. It's wonky.

And thank god that the USA will soon be run by people who are wonky, and whose first instinct is not to dumb down the problem.

These are interesting times...great books will be written, and I have to say that maybe i'm a sheeple but I don't have a clue what to do with my money.
CDs,gold,houses,stocks?...not a clue.

So I keep buying stocks on the dollar-cost averaging mentality..

Anonymous said...

When is Bernanke's term up?

I'm going long on oil but would like to see it get down to $40 first. Normally I'm prescient about these things.

-Mike

Anonymous said...

Hyperinflation seems inevitable at this point. Almost everybody thinks that we are facing deflation, but the monetary base is actually exploding. Probably a good time to buy some gold. Or better yet, silver.

http://the-silver-oracle.blogspot.com/

Tom Grey said...

The helicopter drop would be better -- send everybody a $5000 or $10 000 check.
They buy stuff (demand stimulus, good), or pay down debt (reduce fin. system exposure, good), or save (re-capitalize the banks, good).

Instead, the bags of cash go to the rich Big Bankers who have bet the most and, so far (without cash bags from Ben & Hanky) lost the most. Why should bank owners and managers get the cash? Millionaires of a feather,
stick together.

Cash to all, no selective bailout.
Print the money now, and keep printing until house prices stabilize. No hyperinflation near.

Anonymous said...

Tom Grey, you want to transfer wealth from the population so the homedebtors don't see the price of their houses decline. Well I own a car. Why can't the government inflate the currency until my car value stabilizes too? What's so sacred about a 2x4 and sheetrock house?

It is theft either way.

You must be a homedebtor.

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