November 6, 2008

So, how would we know if we fall into a Depression and not just a Recession?

Pretty amazing to see the UK drop rates 1.5% today. Uh, someone feeling behind the curve a bit?

So, now that interest rates around the world are heading to 0%, and a massive deflation continues, how would we recognize it if we fell into a real true Depression?

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

Soup kitchens lines will be a pretty clear indication. Wall Street suicides might get one thinking it's a depression. All your friends hitting you up for beer money is always a good indication. Hell, it seems to me that Pres. Bush said, "this sucker is going down," if we don't pump and dump. And I don't see it working, so there you have it.

The real question is how do we fix it? How do we create millions of jobs? How do we modify current debt so everyone benefits by keeping a roof over their head, for example?

My point is, even a global recession will be worse than anything we've ever seen, so what's the difference. Let's focus on preventing it or at least shortening it if it is indeed inevitable.

OK?

Anonymous said...

Um, 40% unemployment?

Darren said...

I do not even see much evidence of a hard economic time here in Gainesville Fl. Once I do not see poor people spending money everywhere including fresh market and lower middle class no blowing money every where than it will be a recession here. Once the upper income stop spending here, than a depression.

Anonymous said...

It'll be a depression, the parallels to 1920s-1930s are remarkable. You know what they say about history and repeating it...

gwk said...

Wait I thought your socialist hero was going to fix the economy as soon as he was elected and yet it is off 900 points since his big win oh must be Bush's fault and have you herd McCain might be his biggest asset in senate reaching across as he has alway's to work with those Democrats but why I ask and have you noticed some liberal news media already asking about who Obama really is just to cover themselves for when he is a complete failure they will just say we really didn't quite know him only had years to investigate but that wasn't the agenda and you and millions like you but this man in so get ready when the millions turn on him when he can't pay their gas and mortgages.

Anonymous said...

Well if or when this country falls into a depression we can cure it the old fashioned way, job corps. Take the money from the bailout and start working on our crumbling infrastructure. This keeps people working and helps them provide for themselves and families. Hey, it worked for FDR...

vanilla ice said...

When millions start losing their jobs is a good indication.

And in other news the Dow's down 300 pts. Every day the Dow is lower 100 pts, a perma bear gets his wings.

vanilla ice said...

When millions start losing their jobs is a good indication.

And in other news the Dow's down 300 pts. Every day the Dow is lower 100 pts, a perma bear gets his wings.

Anonymous said...

Keith, congratulations your new blog. I so enjoyed HP.

America won't fall into a Depression because we are a powerful country (economically, culturally, politically, etc...). There has never been a country like the U.S.A. in history. We will get through this little economic downturn.

Don't forget, back in late 2001 to summer of 2003 many bloggers, experts, and media were talking about a deflation and or depression. And it never happened.

EconE said...

negative interest rates?

anon @ 7:03

We didn't go into a depression/recession in 2001-2003 because G-span lowered interest rates and banks wrote neg-am liars loans.

We lied about our strength and prosperity.

gwk said...

Read the WSJ and see who Obama really has to deal with
and why all of you who voted for change are soon going to get it in spades be careful what you wish for.

vanilla ice said...

With the Dow -450 points today, it reminds me that we're due for a second stock market crash. Every stock analyst, trader, banker thinks the economy is doing ok except for the credit markets, which are starting to thaw slightly. The financial geniuses are, like usual, ignoring the bad news. They don't want to face up to entering into a deep recession.

Another crash will clear out all the garabage in the financial system so we can get back to actually making useful things. Hurry up and crash already.

Anonymous said...

I agree. It doesn't matter if we are in either. We need to focus on the prize - jobs.

In that vein, what about hydro-electricity? I heard about a company called Underwater Electric Kite, which has already set up generators on some various rivers in Canada and Africa. I think they produce at least 3-10 k/w per prop and they've built a few.

There's a hospital in Saskatchiwan, Canada that's running on one as we speak. I heard it's the only income that keeps the old guy going while his family tries to steal the company from him.

Anonymous said...

What we need is an effective multi-media campaign to convince everyone exactly how bad the situation is and provide a list of things that people can do to at least attempt to prevent the worse from happening. I know it's daunting task, but the circumstances will provide the free publicity. And I think we're pretty much thinking the same thing about what the circumstances might be.

So what's effective? Kids? Animals? Dust? All three and others?

I mean, isn't there a certain truth about what's going on? Aren't a lot of people looking for honost information and leadership?

So let's start a new thread about what the most effective images of where we are and what we need to do about this will be?

If I were a smart man...(or ambitious as the case may be) I'd be recording news coverage of this and using the footage, a.s.a.p. - to explain via every media outlet there is - we are on the verge of a world of hurt and here's why. What the heck, add a here's what you can do component at the end of it.

If I were doing it, I'd highlight some highprofile, urban activist (M. Johnson) to emphasize it's importance and relevance.

We gotta start doing something!

happy snapper said...

Hello, from a long time HPer
I was not initially gonna follow you here, I think you pre-ejaculated by killing HP way before the housing bust climaxed.

But in the end I enjoyed the HP community (aside from the occasional Jew enviers whom I hate with a passion).
And I respect you Keefer for always posting my thoughts.

So here I am and looking forward to contribute to the fun times ahead.

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry.

I should have said, "highlight hiring anybody including highprofile activists."

happy snapper said...

Just to clarify, most refer to Jew enviers as anti semites,

anti semites are really nothing more than 'losers' envious of others successes.

Ready to play said...

I am sick and tired of sitting here watching everything fall apart.

We need big ideas, and we need exposure for the good ones. We need access to people who are making decisions. That means our friends in some cases. Hopefully, we're not as bi-partisan and paranoid as an outsider might think and that we can convey good, "big" ideas.

People who have read HP surely have been thinking about this, so...how the hell do we get out of this? Now's the time to spit it out.

I think jobs and transparency are the priorty.

It seems to me that we don't need approval from a large business, bank or government for this. Let's come up with our own ideas to fix it and let them include the full participation of our current administration. I don't know this, but I bet they're trolling for good, "big" ideas.

And, while letting it all go and starting over might be tempting, I think the actual devastation to a lot of people each of us know, would probably be pretty shocking.

Let's do something.

Ready to play said...

BTW, on the subject of U.E.K = it runs off of the current in the river. They're working on getting it to work on the tide, like say, the Straights of Gibralter...

Lady Di said...

It sure feels like were headed towards a depression. In my family of 4 adult siblings, a brother, who is a geologist, was laid off last month. Another brother, who is a writer for the LA Times, was laid off last week (I know, newspapers are a dead sector), and a sister, who works in the foreclosure arena will be out of work this December.

Fortunately, we all live in close proximity and no one will be out on the street. But, it is a trying time.

BTW, I live in Orange County, CA. Home of the roasted snapper turtle.

lensam69 said...

@GWK

Obama got elected, but he doesn't come into office until next year.

But that's besides the point.

This downturn has a lot of inertia. Think of a large ship (No titanic jokes please). You can steer the ship into one direction, but it will not change it's course instantly. It will do so gradually. Right now the best we can hope for is to be steered in the right direction, ans slowly our course will begin to change. We all have to be strong, we have to be patient, and we have to understand that this is only the beginning.

Night's darkest our comes right before dawn.

deepcgi said...

Electing a charismatic leader spouting Marxism as a new policy of hope and change would be a good indication, too.

Anonymous said...

"This land of the Fat-Ass Americano Homosexual Erectus is a cesspool of sewage now. And to add insult to that, the Americano is being slowly roasted nicely over a bed of white hot charcoal, skewered from mouth to ass like a Snapper Turtle skewered on a green Chinese bamboo stick, juice dripping down, fat oozing, sputtering, succulent flesh aromatically wafting hungryly in the air.

Americano Homosexual Erectus == Roasted Snapper Turtle !!!

Go Hick, Hillbilly and Cracker Nuthead. Party all you can while the going is still good. Drink that Cold Mountain rotgut moonshine until you puke your snapper turtle gut out. The doom day is coming and it will judge you and your heathen crowd justly."

Sorry Kieth, but your new viewers need their first exposure to Mr. Andrew Hac

BMW Driving Sex Machine said...

The arrogant euros are having to make up for lost time as they believed they could continue to keep rates high or increasing them.
That the credit crisis issues were all americas fault and would only affect america.
B.S. Euros were neck deep in all this garbage as well.
I believe we will come out of this recession a lot faster than the euros. The euros could be looking at a japanese style 10+ year recession with their lazy socialist ways and cradle to the grave welfare.

Anonymous said...

We will all be working for some kind of Corps, ameri-corp, peace-corp, appl-corp.

Though we won't get paid, we will get a nice shirt and a tax-credit we can't use.

Kent said...

Keith, I agree with Happy Snapper. The fact that on the 2nd day of Soot and Ashes you already had to remind people to be positive is an indicator that people are not ready for that yet. Bailouts will not fix the mess we are in. No one can borrow their way out of debt. Moving debt or negative equity from one entity to another doesn't eliminate it.

When one gets overextended and the time comes to repay, it is a double-whammy - as the flow of credit is now shut off (it can no longer supplement income) AND the added burden of repayment has to begin. That is where we are as a country.

Either those of means - liquidity, net worth, low debt, and sustainable income - will end up having to support those of little means as this crisis deepens or the government will have to hyperinflate our way out of debt (after a period of deflation).

Duke Of Earl said...

You know the shower is a dangerous place to be. The big burly guy has had his eye on you since you entered the stall. But he doesn't bother you as much as the midget on the opposite side of the room.

The problem is that the soap is in the center of this triangle. You, the burley guy, and the midget. Someone’s rectum is gonna be wrecked and my money aint on the midget.
Were you mistaken or did the burly guy just wink?

Anonymous said...

Ok, I admit I came to be an HP'er way too late. Had I found this blog before, I would've never drank the kool aid and bought a bigger house w/ granite, stainless and hardwood floors. I totally bought into the whole thing, forgetting that I grew up in a family of 4, mom, dad, older brother and me in about 1200 sq ft and managed just fine.

that being said, I'm now married with two daughters, age 5 and 10. I'm 41, hubby is 45. I worked for state gov't. hubby for a local city and job losses are immenent. More for him than me - hindisght is always 20/20. This country is f'd and I'm not sure of any answers. I have relatives retired from GM that worked so hard for so many years, only to have their retirement life in jeopardy. On the other hand, I've been looking at new cars to buy (with cash which I don't divulge when I first walk in) and the dealers have NO DESIRE to lower their prices. My thinking is that geee, if you have a car sitting on the lot for 22K and I'll take it off the lot for 17K - yet they'd rather keep it. Fine with me, don't need it anywayt. which is different from a want.

Over the years, my kids have learned the difference between want and need but the needy kids outnumber mine by a huge margin.

At this point - the number one issue is jobs, If you don't have an income, it doesnt matter how much or how little you can borrow. WE NEED JOBS good paying jobs that pay the bills and then some so you have a little left over so you can put some in savings that pays what 1% now?

OK, enough of my rant from Chicago...carry on

Anonymous said...

hanky panky paulson has saved us from pain by spending trillions and will do it again and again and again or somneone else from goldman saks at the levers of finance when appointed by obama

Anonymous said...

"I think you pre-ejaculated by killing HP way before the housing bust climaxed"

This is true, however, it think there's a certain charm in it, in the sense that if in the year 2025, someone discovers it, it'll be an interesting academic discussion of how the whole 'hindsight is 20/20' is a load of crap and that if one's cognizant, that it can be seen in advance. Now, instead of reading a lot of "I told you so" threads from 2009, it'll all be contained to the period, 2005 to 2008, a dairy of a contrarian group.

Anonymous said...

already I am not buying meat because it's too expensive. I am thinking a pot of bean, rice, and some biscuits are we being gently pushed into this depression instead of waking up one morning and it's here. remember the rule is you don't know it's a recession until after it's passed, so does a pot of beans mean we are in a depression but won't know until it's passed. it's not looking good out there.

Anonymous said...

ps gwk the drop in the market is from the bush mess and bush has made it perfectly clear he is still the president until Jan 20, 09 so this mess is Bush's fault. I know you can't wait to blame the black man but admit to yourself it was the white man. anyway Obama is only the president elect not the president so quit chomping at the bit.

Anonymous said...

"Duke Of Earl said...
You know the shower is a dangerous place to be. Someone’s rectum is gonna be wrecked and my money aint on the midget.
Were you mistaken or did the burly guy just wink?

November 7, 2008 12:17 AM"

That was no burly guy, that was Sarah Palin, the Wonderful Winker from Wasilla.

Remember her from last week?

DIE U PIGS