November 13, 2008

So, we retested the 7,882 panic low on the Dow today, and then bounced bigtime. Will that be it? Will 7,882 stand?

21 comments:

Hawver said...

You must be crazy if you think that's as low as the Dow is going to go. Dow is going down to 6000 in the next 3 months, and I'm willing to bet after a rally it'll plunge back down even lower.

Anonymous said...

No. PPT back in action 440+ point gain at session end. They put the pipe down long enough to call in their whores (is 'whore' too racy for this wonderful new blog format Mister Rogers?) on the street.,

Is anyone tired of their hackneyed games?

Paulson and Bernanke get put in the dock right after Bushco-Cheneyburton.

PUNISH THE GUILTY. ALL OF THEM.

Anonymous said...

As I said in another post...

You wonder where your 700 billion went.. it went to prop up the market. IF you think it will drop below 7000 anytime soon.. hold your breath. Your tax dollars will see it rise.


And you wonder why theres no transparency... This is the time to get your money out.... whats left of it.

Anonymous said...

Bartiromo looks like a gibbon or a baby baboon with those ridiculous overblown botox lips. How about another 'head', talking that is, to replace this tired worn out shill?

How LOW do you have to stoop in America to be on televison?

Bartiromo is a PERFECT example of what is wrong.

1-20-09 The End of an Error. GWB

L. Yun Market Bear said...

All equity markets are different. Why throw away your money on renting a share when you can sell it right now? There's never been a worse time to buy.

Anonymous said...

No wonder those traders have so many strokes. The Dow is like a kleenex in the wind. Sheeple are scared to death. The "keen" "elite" only know whats what with the market. They make money going up------------and going down. Sell high and buy cheap, an if you are the one deciding which, you got the ball.

Randall666Flagg said...

Yeah, sure. Cheer it up, people. Might as well have a good time until your miserable house is foreclosed on, your automobile is repossessed, your CC is denied due to continuous non-payment, you have $5 left in your miserable checking account bank (which then triggers a low fund penalty fee), etc... The American people are pathetic !

Afterthought said...

Of course not.

This proves that all they have left is momentum trading.

Stocks will crash through the 7000s soon.

Anonymous said...

No. If I was cautious before--out of deference to my girlfriend thinking I'm crazy--about the severity of this crisis, I'm now convinced "this sucker is going down," hard. And I owe alot of my perspective to having been informed through various sources and having been a long time reader of Housing Panic.
One point I continually hear myself repeating, sometimes outloud, is that the performance of the DOW is not the end all be all indicator of the current crisis.

In the U.S, I think JOBS (and regular, good old fashion taxes) represent the "make or break" aspect of what's goind on and where it's going. If there are insufficient tax revenues, there is enevitably a breakdown in the rule of law and services, and no amount of printed money will get you out of that calamity. The "guns, propane and barbed wire" crowd will be right if we slip into massive unemployment, which seems to be happening -- whether it's despite the market or because of it.

I have no sympathy for the rich. They will survive by hook or crook if necessary. I am worried about regular folk, who have done and do the "right thing" all their lives, and who will suffer for their trouble. Given the sheeplike characteristic of many people's thinking, it will only take one relatively ordinary incident (like Rodney King's beating or an assination) to incite all out rage/frustration with trying to have done the right thing and having it blow up in your face. Throw on top of that the choice of survival or demise and there you have it.

The have nots, whether justified or not, will do whatever is necessary to put food in thier childrens' mouths, and that's bad.

As a pragmatist and idealist, it's hard for me to say this, but, it really is going to boil down to your neighbors and subsequent affiliation (which is weird when I consider the counter-intuitiveness I have always felt about neighborhoods of McMansions). (Maybe that's where racsim/prejudice originated.)

Anyway, I really believe we're at the tip of the iceberg of turmoil and money is going to be the last thing we care about in the long run, regardless of which currency you're holding or how you're invested. So, being inspired by Keith's S&A attempt, I am focusing on improving my little world, here in Maryland, by helping, advising or defending myself against the people in the near vicinity and I would suggest anyone who doesn't understand or hasn't gotten the message to do the same...you won't regret it.

The civil unrest that Keith, amongst others have referred to is just around the corner if the situation gets worse. And by that I mean, the stock market going down too low, or the dollar crashing, or unemployment getting out of control, or government services being cut off or a major decline in the standard of living for all the people who thought it couldn't happen. And while I was skeptical about how screwed up whomever was responsible for getting us here, I am now convinced we're there, and the only way out of this are the hard choices that each of us, including "the powers that be" have to make. It really is happening much faster than anyone could have predicted.

So, to whoever is reading this, do what you have to do, whether it's figure out the market, provide for your family or prepare for the worst, just bear in mind this problem is global and while you may not care about other countries or other states, cities or counties, or companies and people for that matter, we are all going to have to suffer through this devastation and you will be best served by thinking about how one goes about actually contributing to either preventing the inevitable or how to go about picking up the pieces regardless of whether the DOW goes to new lows.

Anonymous said...

what is the PPT?

Dan's ego said...

DOW is too big to fail.

Volume during the spike was pretty big there folks. What is the old adage -- volume speaks louder than words?

Frank said...

20,000 Dow Jones should be the next stop in the years ahead.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/10-bullish-sign.html

As for your 700 billion...I think its like what happened to Chrysler in 1979. 1.5 bil. loan...paid back years early...and 500 mil profit on the preferred TO THE TAX PAYER....

Paul E. Math said...

I fail to see the merit in expanding credit without expanding the ability to repay.

Users of credit overshot the limit of what they can repay - this is why home foreclosures and credit card defaults are skyrocketing. How does increasing credit do anything but postpone and exacerbate the inevitable? Talk about barking up the wrong tree.

I'm not sure if we'll get down to 7882 in the next week or the next month. But I'm pretty sure we'll get below 8835.

The consumer is completely tapped, neither willing nor able to spend like he used to. You think retailer stock prices are low? Many of these retailers get half their revenues in Nov. and Dec. - a strong Christmas shopping season is the only thing keeping these businesses out of bankruptcy. And this is NOT going to be a merry Christmas for retailers.

So while the stock prices of retailers have been tanking, just wait until they go BK in Jan, Feb, Mar. Macy's may look like a bargain at 8.38 since it's high was 45 just a couple years ago, but common shares will be worth 0 when it files for chapter 11.

Now, I don't know if Macy's specifically is going to go BK, but some of these retailers will. That's why I short the whole lot of them with SCC. Not that I'm holding SCC right now - I sold at 156 yesterday only to kick myself as it rose as high as 176 mid-day today. But I felt much better when it ended the day at 146. And I'm thinking of getting back into it - we'll see how I feel tomorrow.

For those thinking of trying this approach I warn you: I may very well just be an idiot who's been lucky for the last month. I bought SLV at 17 and sold at 13, losing myself a couple grand in the process. That's how much of a genius I am - I didn't recognize commodities for the bubble they were nor did I appreciate the imminence of deleveraging and deflation despite being warned repeatedly.

Good luck to you all.

Devestment said...

thats all folks.

Anonymous said...

Bartiromo looks like a gibbon or a baby baboon with those ridiculous overblown botox lips. How about another 'head', talking that is, to replace this tired worn out shill?

How LOW do you have to stoop in America to be on televison?

Bartiromo is a PERFECT example of what is wrong.

1-20-09 The End of an Error. GWB


Ah, nice to see someone other than myself making fun of Maria Bartiskanko. Why is anything this pig says relevent??

Anonymous said...

With the cliff diving in the ABX and CMBX indices, there is little chance that we have seen the bottom.

Today's action is little more than a short squeeze prior to the mother of all corrections.

Chris said...

I can't see how this can possibly be the low. Consumer spending has dropped 3 quarters in a row which hasn't happened in decades. Unemployment is rising at a rapid clip, and we just exceeded 500,000 jobless claims which looks like it will keep rising. Maybe a bottom will be reached in about 9-12 months but not now. We also did not see anything close to a capitulation moment this week.

Nevada is Burning said...

Technical Bounce. Volume big only because so many think 7882 is a support level. Now, the way this market is played is simple. First you bet on where you think short term(1-2week) support is, and buy at this level. Wait until your indicators hit and sell into the rally before the next firm does thereby getting more profit to buy into the next dip and place your bet on the intermediate(3-4week)support and sell into the rally ect, ect.

Today's rally is still lower than the lows of the previous rally(before the elections)which indicates the trend is still down. After all the "players" sell, the dow will creep to 7200-7500(new support) being shorted all the way. Resistance is around 9400-9600 and 8000-9000 a short term trading range. When the dow goes past 9800, it will scream to 11,000 and correct. Then again, people might just buy like there is no tommorow and the Dow goes to 15,000 by Nov 18th. It's hard to tell. I had to sell my crystal ball and give the money to my bankrupt state.

Goodluck trading.

Nevada is Burning

Anonymous said...

Isn't Short Covering all part of the economic reality

http://www.mercurynews.com/
ci_10983300?nclick_check=1

"We're taking sharp, decisive action to align ourselves to a new economic reality, and also to amplify our investment in the way the world is heading,"

Anonymous said...

Do you remember that song "Don't Worry be Happy."

Wouldn't Saturday be a good day to pay it.

http://www.reuters.com/article/
americasDealsNews/
idUSTRE4AD04220081114

Anxiety is sweeping the hedge fund industry before a crucial deadline on Saturday, when investors angered by recent heavy losses are expected to demand the return of billions of dollars.

"Managers have a pretty good feeling for what is coming, and there are significant redemption requests out there," said Stewart Massey, founding partner of Massey, Quick & Co., an investment consultant that puts money into hedge funds.

Saturday is the last day for thousands of investors to notify hundreds of hedge funds if they want their money back by year's end.

i've had it said...

Trading range will be 8000 to 9000 generally speaking but dow will go below 7500 by end of year. Quite likeky to go below 7000 by early 2009.
Some folks are even saying beow 6000 next year. Could be quite possible given the rising unemployment and potential inflation due to the printing presses running full speed.