December 5, 2008

Citigroup Chief Technical Strategist: "The world is not going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done"




OK, for those of you already in the shelter, here's reason to stay there for a bit longer, care of Citigroup:

"They are throwing the kitchen sink at this. The world is not going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done.

"When the dust settles this will either work, and the money they have pushed into the system will feed though into an inflation shock. Or it will not work because too much damage has already been done, and we will see continued financial deterioration, causing further economic deterioration, with the risk of a feedback loop. We don't think this is the more likely outcome, but as each week and month passes, there is a growing danger of vicious circle as confidence erodes.

"This will lead to political instability. We are already seeing countries on the periphery of Europe under severe stress. Some leaders are now at record levels of unpopularity. There is a risk of domestic unrest, starting with strikes because people are feeling disenfranchised.

"What happens if there is a meltdown in a country like Pakistan, which is a nuclear power. People react when they have their backs to the wall. We're already seeing doubts emerge about the sovereign debts of developed AAA-rated countries, which is not something you can ignore.

"For those who refer to gold as 'that useless piece of yellow metal that has no real value and earns nothing' (and have done for years), they might want to look at financial market charts more closely.

"We continue to believe that a move of similar percentage to that seen in the 1976-1980 bull market can be seen, which would suggest a price north of $2,000."

- Tom Fitzpatrick, Citigroup Chief Technical Strategist, leaked internal client report, November 2008


And then here's Glenn Beck's comments on these comments:

You must prepare your household, you must prepare your ch
"I'm telling you you are running out of time to prepare.ildren, you must do logical, well thought out things to be able to prepare your family and please do not do them in a panic fashion. I don't tell you these things to panic you. I tell you this with a sense of urgency so you may move with a sense of urgency and it is the same reason why CitiBank is telling you this today.

"They say it's either going to be inflation or a downward spiral into Depression, civil disorder and possible wars. They are talking about this on a global scale. They don't say that this is the United States but, gang, there's trouble coming.

"Americans, your gut is telling you this. Don't dismiss it. Follow your gut. If China would make that one move, no one's lending us any more money. So all of the things that we borrow has to be purchased with something else. You want prescription drugs? Okay, we can't borrow the money from China anymore. We need $500 billion more, half a trillion dollars more for a stimulus package so we can train people to go out and buy a new television set to keep the economy going? No one is going to borrow no one is going to lend us that $500 billion. We're at the end, gang. We're at the end of that game. So how do they pay for it? They print it because governments can do that."

- Glenn Beck, now in full freak-out mode, December 2008

And remember, it hath been foretold.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Glen Beck makes so much money he is so removed from any financial instability. These pundits make me laugh as if they can relate to the average citizen who is unemployed or earns just enough to afford the basics. Or the Auto executives who make like 14 million/year and they are talking about there travels driving and taking turns carpooling to DC what a show there putting on. Im sick of hearing about highly paid people acting as if they will be suffering along with the rest of us so Glenn Beck and all you other pundits who make multi million dollar a year salaries STFU!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Citi chief technical strategist? Crap job. Any good chartist either works for a hedge fund or trades proprietary. I have been on Wall Street for 17yrs, these guys are not worth following. People like Tom Demark are good, but he's on the payroll at SAC and hes rich anyway from working at Tudor. IGNORE CITI'S COMMENTS

blogger said...

You want to see social unrest?

Visit the mideast next year.

From predictions of $200 to predictions of $25 in months.

Wow.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are going to be beehives of despair and angst.

Watch out.

Merrill says oil may fall below $25 next year amid global recession

Posted Dec 4th 2008 1:46PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: International markets, Commodities, Oil, Recession
If economist David H. Wang had predicted earlier this year that oil would fall to $40 per barrel in 2009, "I would have lost my reputation as an economist in standing," he said.

Or, "they would have probably said I was in need of 24-hour observation," he added.

Well, $40-per-barrel oil in 2009 doesn't appear to be that outlandish now. In fact, in the view of one research operation, it looks downright high.

Merrill Lynch said oil may fall below $25 per barrel in 2009 as a global recession takes hold, Bloomberg News reported Thursday, reducing demand for the world's most important commodity.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/04/merrill-says-oil-may-fall-below-25-next-year-amid-global-recess/

Roccman said...

Hmmm...

5 years ago this was tin foil...

3 years ago this was tin foil...

1 year ago this was tin foil

Newsflash...

This is going to get much much worse.

Unimaginably worse.

When you begin to understand that 7billion are about 6 billion too many...

well...

consider this...

between 1937 and 1943 73 MILLION people died in WWII...

(wait for it)

AND THE WORLD'S NET HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH WAS POSITIVE.

Oh yes - this is going to be bad... beyond anyone's (even mine) wildest thoughts.

Anonymous said...

$25 a Barrel Oil?

Where did I put that Hummer?

Anyone seen my old Expedition?

blogger said...

Richard - I updated the photo in you honor.

Even I didn't think the tin foil hatters would be THIS right. But the wheels are really off. We're spinning out of control. This could end really, really, really, really ugly.

And yet, even with the potential that the entire worldwide financial system may crash like never before, people are going about their lives as if everything is ok.

Which makes me think, maybe, just maybe, it still is.

Either way, it's best to be prepared. And if this blows over like Y2k, at least you were prepared.

But then the question is, how do you best prepare?

Roccman said...

How to prepare keith?

Stop drinking the kool aid.

Empower yourself by not buying into the illusion.

Fully understanding what "overshoot"..."carrying capacity" and "dieoff" mean.

For starters got to

dieoff.com

then read

"overshoot" by Catton (1986).

And in other news:L

over 1/2 million jobs lost ini November...and that is not the real story...

Drum roll please...

And the revisions were:

Oct revised to -320k from -240k
Sept revised to -403k from -284k

Why even bother doing the math...

Just use descriptors like...

Bad

Really bad

Fucking off the charts bad

Head to the bunker bad

Enjoy the die off bad

Cheers

Anonymous said...

I'm scared shitless and noboby ealse seems to give fuck! We've turned into a bunch of clueless fucks!!!!! Maybe this is a good thing if we can get thru the turmoil?

Anonymous said...

Settle down everyone.

Save a little more, if you save at all. If you don't save start.

If you have extra money, spend it on the things you need. And don't spend money you don't have.

We'll all be fine in the long run. Just going to be difficult for many people along the way.

Look at the value of what you are doing with your life.

If you can afford to spend, by all means do it. You'll help out the economy. If everyone stops spending because they are afraid, we might as well hang the whole thing up.

So buy yourself the things you need. If you don't need it maybe you can find a reason to - not everything but maybe you do really need it i.e. not a frivolous purchase.

The economy needs you to do that, America needs you to do that, the world needs you to do that.

Just don't buy crap you don't need.


Example:

You need a new television because the old one is broken and costs too much to fix. - Buy a new one.

You have a clock in the kitchen that constantly runs 5 minutes too fast and eats up batteries. - Buy a new one.

Your wife wants to buy a porcelan doll and a glass cabinet to put it in and fill up yet another room in the house with knick-knacks. - You cut up your wife's credit cards.

You need to get tires for the car - Buy the tires.

You daughter needs a nose job and wants a boob job - You offer to pay for her first year of college and no more and you kick her out as soon as she is 18.

Aww screw it, we're fucked.

File for divorce and move out of the country with what little you have left.

Lost Cause said...

All signs point to it not working -- that the entire amount of cash has been wasted.

Mammoth said...

“But then the question is, how do you best prepare?”
-----
Learn how to do more things by yourself. Become more self-sufficient.

Start by planting a garden. Even planting a few seeds in the flowerpot on your condo’s balcony is a place to start…and who knows where this may lead you?
=============
“You need a new television because the old one is broken and costs too much to fix. - Buy a new one."

"You have a clock in the kitchen that constantly runs 5 minutes too fast and eats up batteries. - Buy a new one.”
-----
Disagree!
Your TV craps out.
- You look on Craig’s List, you go through the want ads, then you go pay the seller a visit. If you want it, then you offer him/her ½ price from what was advertised.

Your clock doesn’t work right.
- You visit a thrift shop or garage sale, and pay a fraction of the price for a new clock.
=============
It is NOT your obligation to deplete your financial resources in order to keep others employed.

It IS your obligation to provide for your family and yourself.

Get it?

-Mammoth

Anonymous said...

Commodus, is that you?

Anonymous said...

Just a quick note about the Y2K.
I have a friend who works for the NYSE. He spent huge amouts of time planning/implementing backup sytems, system upgrades, contingencies and redundancies for the upcoming Y2K end of the universe. The systems he works on backup all the trade data. The morning after
9/11, the Feds were at his door and "escorted" him back to Wall Street. I think it took 5 or 6 days to get the system up and running again. Know why? All the Y2K preparation resulted in backup systems, many of which were outside of New York City. Without the Y2K scare, the exchanges would have been out of business for months (at least). So, sometimes you prepare for one disaster and avert another.

Hey Mammouth...perhaps vegetable seeds will become the new money. I'm gonna stock up on them as soon as they hit the stores.

Also...Storage Facility auctions are great for bargins. TVs are about $5.00 now. No kidding.

Anonymous said...

Guess it's time to take the wife and kids for another visit to MREdepot.com

To continue the comedy here's a funny headline from Bloomberg:

"U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies, Foreclosures Rise to Record as Prices Plummet"

Bwahahah! OHhh that's so funny. They just keep reprinting the story month after month until average prices reach $50k/house.

Anonymous said...

Got my American Eagle gold coins delivered the other day...took ten weeks to get here. Got gold in hand now! I'll have none of this Comex or GLD paper gold at this point...it just isn't real.

As for buying stuff: I've been making money in the market flipping stocks the last few months, so I upgraded my two floor standing Klipsch speakers to include a center channel and two surrounds. In addition, I purchased a Polk 12" DSW Micro4000 subwoofer with 1,200 watts of power and a seven channel Yamaha rxv-1800 a/v reciever with 130 watts per channel.

I'll be blasting my surround sound movies while the world crumbles around me.

Got popcorn!

Anonymous said...

Sounds like panic is setting in around here!

Dr. Huxtable said...

My friend and I were talking about this mess today. He told me that his grandfather said that the scarry thing about the depression, is that for the first 2 years, no one acted different. It was after 1931 when things could be felt.

Anonymous said...

Anon and Mammouth are so right: Americans do not know how to be poor.

My cheapskate brother and his wife live well below their means. Their house cost them about a third of what they would qualify for under the old, conservative rules and probably 10 times less than what they would have qualified for under the "it has a pulse" lending standards. They simply could not bring themselves to pay the inflated, out-of-line to income and rent prices in their area of the country. When they house-hunted several real-estate agents eventually refused to work with them. It's a standing joke in our family that 2 MBAs with cash managed to piss off realtors so badly. They drive older, paid for cars. My brother does most of the work on the cars himself. The killer is their TV came from the local dump. There are plenty of perfectly good TVs at most dumps. You can't sell an old TV if you try, even to college kids!

His take on the housing crisis: "I can afford to take a loss on my house and trade up. My lower priced house is not leveraged as much. I can suck it up and take the loss and get a good deal on a foreclosure." People forget that leverage works both ways. I wish my brother would enjoy himself and buy himself a new TV and a nicer house; especially since now he will be able to get the fire sale prices he has been dreaming of.

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