December 7, 2008

Here's the chart for US Steel. So, how do you want your depression?



This, folks, would be known as a cliff.

Yes, that's a real chart.


25 comments:

happy snapper said...

just about back to historic norms

Anonymous said...

My dad recently bought some X (US Steel).

I'll probably be doing the same.

Lots of steel will be needed for the upcoming infrastructure projects.

Watch the price double in the next year.

George L. said...

why do people keep talking about a great depression that will never materialize?

relax my angry loner friends,it will only be "the great recession".nothing more nothing less.

by the way,when steel(X) reaches 9 dollars,which it has before,I'll be buying it like a madman.

Anonymous said...

Do you think that Obama will buy steel from India (Mittal) or another foreign country before US Steel gets the supply contracts?

Rebuilding old and decaying dams, bridges, highways etc. Those are the projects that Obama is talking about.

I think they'll use more steel for these projects than the high rise condos and other buildings during the bubble.

Opinions Keith?

Pamela said...

I just talked to my 92 year old uncle. He told me he is having a hard time resisting some of the "buys out there." He's been living off buying and selling stocks his whole life, after a stint as a Business School Prof. He doesn't make it too complicated.

I asked him how my grandfather managed during the Great Depression. My grandfather was a real estate investor, starting in about 1900. He did fine during the Depression, sending his sons to good schools, only because he never bought on margin. He ran a cash business. He bought up blocks of apts. on Comm. Ave. in Boston when nobody wanted them during the 30s. Buy Low, use cash. Live frugally.

Anonymous said...

Wait for it to hit $15; then buy.

David said...

Meanwhile, the trailer-park geniuses who bought big gas-guzzling Hummers, etc., are torching them out BIG-TIME: http://www.jsonline.com/business/35665039.html

Also: parking them in harm's way in front of hurricanes, dumping them in quarries, stuffing them full of newspaper and lighter fluid, leaving the keys in the ignition in shitty neighborhoods, etc., and then committing insurance fraud.

Damn. Maybe Andrew Hac has a point...

Paul E. Math said...

I'll take mine over easy. Oh, I'm sorry, that's not on the menu?

Lost Cause said...

You don't know US Steel. That company was started by Andrew Carnagie. It was a high flying stock for years, until the 1960s, when it collapsed. It was thought that it would never come back, until the recent commodities bubble. It is not the collapse in the price that should make you worry, but the fact that it got up to nearly $200.

Edgar Alpo said...

It looks like every other chart, they all look the same.

Anonymous said...

Hey keith I noticed you didn't post my Obama supreme court comment. The full court reveiwed the appeal. I read the case law and your screwed. You make me as sick as the communist crap on this blog. Thats right comrade don't post any of whats going on with Obama. Your as disgusting as this countries corrupt vile msm, loser.

HelloKitty said...

It still feels too early to buy stocks. My god this economy was based on fraud for 10 years. how the hell can we recover right away from that?!

People have 'wised up' about real estate fraud, dot coms, and the crooked stock market scams.

Time to hide in CD's and Bonds until inflation begins IMO. You cannot have a booming stock market based on government spending can you?

Anonymous said...

Lower steel sales will induce steel manufacture to cut back on production and to lay off workers.

Rising steel unemployment and declining steel profits will further depress demand.

Productions demand for industries that support the steel industry will go down and these industries will lay off their workers causing unemployment to raise again.

Then this feedback loop will be self reinforcing as productions demand of small businesses that support those industries go down and these small businesses will lay off their workers causing more unemployment.

As this happens central bankers will lower interest rate cutting to zero. As interest rate reach zero the gap of profits between lenders and borrowers will be minimized and money markets become noneffective.

Don't you think Jean-Claude Trichet now that once the point of no return has been passed, there is no turning back.

Too bad Uncle Benny and BOJ did not listen, but at least you will be able to see how big Yen Carry Trade really is once it completely unwinds.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/831019a2-
c26e-11dd-a350-000077b07658.html

Trichet stays silent on further ECB rate cuts

Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank's president, emphasised yesterday the boldness of a 75 basis point cut in its main interest rate.

He highlighted the extent of the eurozone's economic downturn - but indicated that borrowing costs might not fall much further.

Hinting at strong differences of opinion, however, the ECB president said the 75 basis point cut had been agreed by "consensus" rather than unanimously.

Anonymous said...

Great Depression Unemployment Didn't Hit 25 Percent Overnight

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker
/article/140365/Great-Depression-
Unemployment-Didn%27t-Hit-25-Percent-
Overnight?tickers=^dji,^ixic,^
gspc,spy,dia,qqqq,tlt

Anonymous said...

I agree that the steel price will go up .
When I was young we use to debate about how automation would be the undoing of the work force. In those days we would debate and try to figure out how people will survive when the machine takes over the jobs . Never in my wildest dreams did I perceive about 60 years ago that it would be foreign labor creating a monopoly and crushing competition in America and that would destroy the jobs and manufacturing in America .

In my youth, China was a Country that kept to itself. Sure some cheap china junk or some China would make its way over here that long ago ,but there was a small market for it .

People would like to say that being protective about your own countries jobs is just not the way the USA should be . Who is saying this ?.... Corporations ,the News ,the Advertisers , Wall Street? What do the Citizens of America really think ?

Did this experiment with a World money supply and mixing World economies work out ? Did the carry-trade create great wealth for some ,without creating anything ? Were imports and exports fair or even taxed properly to level out the playing field . Were wages on a fair and level playing field World Wide so as to make the word competition a reasonable word to even use ?

The Railroad Barons of American History cut prices to destroy their competition ,only to raise the price once they obtained the monopoly .

I'm charging the USA Government ,Wall Street and the Corporations with Conspiracy to create a monopoly of foreign manufactured goods ,thus
destroying competition for USA based manufacturing and Jobs . Further I am calling this a breach of protection of the Citizens of the United States of
America and failure to enforce the Monopoly laws and rightfully charge proper import taxes on such cargo .

I charge that the Powers have not properly taxed Corporations for any form of outsourcing of jobs to foreign Countries as to breaching the duty to protect the Citizens of the United States .

Anonymous said...

Use linear scales for more cliff.

Anonymous said...

Two years ago when house prices started to fall did you Buy into the 'House Price Are Cheap' Hype.

Did you listen to those people who told you that you better jump in now or you will miss the boat again.

Two years ago you planned out everything when you took out all of your saving and put 10% down and you took out an option ARMs.

You have a job in the commodities industries and with the weaker currency, you though your job would be secured.

You stretched out your debt to loan ratio and you figured interest rate will go lower, so even if house price fall you will still have enough equity in the house to refinance with a lower interest fixed rate loan.

Now the time have come to get into that lower fixed rate loan and the commodities market just tanked and, you just got laid off.

Two years ago, you know the financial jobs and high tech jobs that supported the financial sector was going to have higher unemployment, but you did not realized that this depression will have a self feeding loop that reinforces itself.

But learning that lesson now is too late.

For others who are planning to buy soon ask yourself this question so what if interest rate fall, if you do not have a job how will you make your mortgage payments.

How secure will your job be one to two years from now and after your take out some of your saving for your 20% down payments do you have enough in your saving to ride out this self feeding feedback loop call the DEPRESSION.

http://www.usatoday.com/money
/economy/2008-11-30-money-downturn-
savings_N.htm

The Great Depression created a generation of Americans that abhorred waste and considered debt the devil's playground. Long after the economy recovered, they hoarded tin foil, saved little pieces of string and insisted on paying cash for their purchases.

Few economists believe this downturn will become another Great Depression. But the economic slump could have a lasting impact on Americans' savings habits, particularly young people who may be witnessing the worst economy they've seen in their lifetimes.

Anonymous said...

and it's up 13% already today.

Anonymous said...

make that almost 16%

Anonymous said...

17%

Anonymous said...

and sell.

dwr said...

"just about back to historic norms"

Exactly. Keith, you needs to stick to housing, you know nothing about stocks. Anyone with investing and business sense would've kept HP going.

keith said...

Wow - 25% rally today

Maybe I should post more stock charts for companies that looked like they were going out of business

Any nominees?

Anonymous said...

Job cuts being announced in the pass few days in December by the following companies:

Anheuser-Busch InBev

Wyndham

Dow Chemical Co.

North Memorial

Park Nicollet Health Services

ABX

3M

AT&T

DuPont

Viacom

Level 3

Adobe Systems

Washington Mutual

United Technologies subsidiary

Hynix Semiconductor Inc

Yahoo (Will come out Wednesday)

Anonymous said...

Bank lending up 3.6% last month, fastest pace in 16 years

http://search.japantimes.co.jp
/cgi-bin/nb20081209n3.html

The average daily balance of Japanese bank lending in November rose 3.6 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace in over 16 years, as more companies borrowed from banks

The loan balance, excluding loans by "shinkin" credit banks, increased for the 34th straight month to 400.13 trillion yen.

The rate of increase was the fastest since April 1992, when it grew 3.8 percent.