Give it your best shot.
What could send this meltdown into overdrive in an instant?
Figure we'd get it out there, so that it won't happen. Black swans are unforeseen after all.
December 1, 2008
It feels like another shoe could drop. What would another shoe be?
Give it your best shot.
What could send this meltdown into overdrive in an instant?
Figure we'd get it out there, so that it won't happen. Black swans are unforeseen after all.
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Credit card industry may cut $2 trillion of lines: analyst
Commercial real estate melting down (businesses defaulting on mortgages, etc.causing more job loss)? Credit card companies reducing credit to consumers (consumer spending goes down another notch)?
Al quaeda or some other group takes a big hit at us on American soil.
That would do it, I think.
11:11 am pst
Market DOWN 441 points on Bushco recession/depression 'apology'.
Wake UP the PPT and tell them to put the crack pipe down and GET TO WORK WITH A 1PM RALLY, dammit.
Tell Baldo Paulson and Helicopter Bernanke their something-for-nothing jimminy crickett golly-gee plans are not working and they are OUT of bullets and bullshit now and Main Street America is sharpening up their pitchforks...
Happy Depression Holidays
The NBER says were in a recession?
Exactly how much of my tax money goes to these savants? Reminds me of the Steven Wright joke, "...pretty sure it was a guy named Eddie." If you're wondering why were in such a crisis of confidence, look no further. Good work boys, now go hit the golf course.
_I read the other day from a post in a French economic think tank newsletter that we have been trying to borrow $300 Billion from the Gulf States about 10-15 days ago. Right around the time we were getting ready to stealthily announce another 800 Billion to prop up credit cards, etc.
That means things are pretty bad...we must be at a point where it is getting dangerous to spend more of our own money.
OPEC has said oil should be $75 a barrel but won't raise until 2009. I am guessing they said they will hold off to give us time, but then that's it.
The article said we were asking for the money, not that the countries asked, had said yes.
I am thinking credit cards are the next blow because there will be spending increasingly only on necessities.
Unless it's a piece of news that is so telling we'll upchuck.
Or failure of something out of left field..black swan..,
speaking of which:
Taleb (Black Swan concept guy),works with Benoit Mandelbrot of fractal/chaos theory fame.They were interviewed recently on television re the current economy,because Mandelbrot's work also applies to the stock market,and they said they are not sleeping much because they are so incredibly worried about what they are seeing as possibility...I concur. I wake @ 3 +/- AM many days with a lurch of panic and piercing fear. I have lived long enough to know the implications of what I am seeing...Bless us all.
Grandma PKK
Funeral Dirge for the further career prospects of the Bearded One:
Bernanke cashes his last check and about to punish American Savers ONCE AGAIN in a desperate pathetic failed attempt to revive an already dead person like Dr. Frankenstein...
Bernanke: lower interest rates are "feasible"
By JEANNINE AVERSA AP Economics Writer
Posted: 12/01/2008 10:47:47 AM PST
WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday that further interest-rate cuts are "certainly feasible," but he warned there are limits to how much such action would revive an economy likely to stay weak well into next year.
The Fed's key interest rate now stands at 1 percent, a level seen only once before in the last half-century. To help lift the country out of a recession that started in December of last year, many economists predict Bernanke and his colleagues will drop the rate again at their next meeting on Dec. 15-16.
Bernanke, in prepared remarks to business leaders in Austin, Texas, noted that the bracing impact of the Fed's aggressive rate reductions has been somewhat stymied by the worst credit and financial crises to hit the world economy since the 1930s. Despite lower borrowing costs ordered by the Fed, skittish banks have been reluctant to lend money to people and businesses, a vicious cycle that has seriously hobbled the U.S. economy.
"Although further reductions ... are certainly feasible, at this point the scope for using conventional interest rate policies to support the economy is obviously limited," Bernanke said in the speech. The Fed can lower its key rate only so far—to zero—and its getting ever closer to that threshold.
Bernanke said there are other ways that the Fed might bolster economic activity.
The Fed, for instance, could buy longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the open market in substantial quantities, he said. This might lower rates on these securities, "thus helping to spur aggregate demand," Bernanke said.
Given the limits to how low the Fed can go in reducing interest rates, the central bank over the past year has resorted to a flurry of other radical—and often unprecedented actions—with the hope of busting through credit jams and getting financial markets operating more normally.
It has ramped up cash and other types of loans to financial institutions, started buying mounds of short-term debt that companies rely on for day-to-day operations like paying salaries and buying supplies, and expanded its emergency lending program to investment firms.
Just last week the Fed announced two new programs aimed at increasing the availability and lowering the costs of credit card loans, auto loans, student loans and home mortgages.
The Fed last week said it would purchase $200 billion in securities backed by different types of consumer debt. That market essentially froze in October, making such loans harder to obtain while carrying higher interest rates.
The Fed also said it would spend $500 billion to purchase mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and another $100 billion to directly purchase mortgages held by Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks.
Bernanke said the Fed will continue to look for innovative ways to break through the credit logjams.
"We at the Federal Reserve and our colleagues at other federal agencies will carefully monitor the conditions of all key financial institutions and stand ready to act as needed to preserve their viability in this difficult financial environment," Bernanke said.
Bernanke spoke just hours after the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the U.S. economy has been in a recession since December 2007.
Bernanke = Gross Incompetent. Imbecile. Only person more incompetent would be the Maestro of Mayhem, George W. Bushco and his gang of Merry Thugs.
Happy Greedspan Depression to You.
Collapse of the commercial real estate market. You see the signs everywhere - empty spaces, for lease signs on every building.
The big box commercial center retail paradigm is dead.
When the commercial real estate market goes down, watch out below.
I assume that the stock market is going away because people will learn that their so called investments were loans and the companies behind them are screwed.
For example: BloomBerg.com noted that GM debt is now worth 15 cents on the dollar:
Goldman, GE, GM Invite Us to Play a Rigged Game: Jonathan Weil
and, moreover, about GE:
[GE] just landed government insurance for as much as $139 billion of debt for its lending arm, GE Capital Corp., which also is rated AAA. If GE were really that strong, it wouldn't need the help.
so unless that stock market goes into overdrive, the US government will own everything.
Cross-border fighting between India and Pakistan. Threat of regional war, between Nuclear powers, would bring the whole card game to an end.
Credit card industry may cut $2 trillion of lines: analyst
Hehehe.. I was just about to post that.
Yeah, as Mr Schiff has said, consumer credit is the next shoe to drop.
The total collapse of credit-financed consumer spending; a move from 'won't spend' to 'can't spend.'
How many more shoes are there, anyway? This thing is looking more and more like a centipede ...
Our friend Mr. Bernanke just announced the Fed is ready to buy Treasuries directly -- aka monetization of debt.
Hello inflation, goodbye U$D.
A terrorist attack would do it. The way the country is now, it wouldn’t take much. A terrorist shoving an elderly shopper into a pyramid of stacked canned corn could do it.
Iam writing from Canada, and the shoe has dropped very hard this week. It's mostly political, but it relates to meltdown. TSX through the floor today.
"Tell Baldo Paulson and Helicopter Bernanke their something-for-nothing jimminy crickett golly-gee plans are not working and they are OUT of bullets and bullshit now and Main Street America is sharpening up their pitchforks..."
Best post I've read all day....my sentiments exactly!!!
Citigroup burning through the meatshield of money standing in front of the common stockholders might do it.
Right now, we're getting these rallies because investors have faith that the state will intervene. Because even when it chooses not to there is still the hope or chance that it will change its mind. If they start believing that it *cannot* as opposed to chooses not to help then even dead cats won't bounce.
Meltdown in consumption. Bad for services (many of which are discretionary spending, and which constitute much of our economy), and bad for China (and thus bad for institutional funds vested in it like much of Japan).
How many financial stocks are below/nearing the $5/share threshold that institutional funds prohibit themselves from investing in?
Oil shock. Not likely, but that would be a real killer. Oil traded in other currencies? May be a real possibility if dollar pricing does not provide trust and stability.
Interest rate rise/spike. Not even necessarily the fed. Different loans are indexed to different valuations (LIBOR, etc.). One of the few things the government seems to be understanding is how much of a death-spiral in real estate that would cause.
If there *is* someone smart pulling the levers over there, then they are trying to create a lull in the drop/panic in order to buy time for people to refinance at low rates before letting things drop again.
But really, those are the symptoms. We all need to remember that the underlying disease is, and for the better part of 7 years has been, a solvency crisis. We've (they've, but let's not split hairs as we're on the hook and neither you nor I have exactly seized any armories yet) swept things under the rug for all that time.
The real estate crisis, the credit crisis, the coming consumer spending crisis, the coming commodities price crisis. They're all manifestations of the fact that we have borrowed not to invest in wealth but to blow up a ponzi scheme which was used to hide how terrible wages and profits really were. And like any good crack binge, after all the windows are smashed and the televisions are pawned you have nothing to show for it.
Drought, crop failure, dust bowl conditions in the mid-western US and Canada.
What happens when the supply of agricultural commodities such as corn or wheat falls due to adverse weather?
Supply challenges, on their own, would cause agricultural prices to skyrocket. But now all this money that the fed wants loaned to businesses and consumers instead piles into speculation on ag commodities. Vicious cycle of ever-rising prices.
Pray it doesn't happen.
Here's a little picker-upper from the Nice GOP Folks at the Bushco-Cheneyburton-Greedspan Depression Team;
I hope it just keeps getting worse and worse and worse.
WaMu = Woo Hoo, Boo Hoo Hoo.
JPMorgan Chase to cut 3,400 WaMu jobs in Seattle
By BILL VIRGIN
P-I REPORTER
JPMorgan Chase said it will eliminate 3,400 jobs at Washington Mutual's banking operations in Seattle.
Of that total, 1,500 jobs are being eliminated now, with those employees to be gone by the end of January. Another 1,900 employees will stay on in temporary, transition jobs that will disappear next year.
Washington Mutual had 4,300 jobs in the Seattle area at the time federal regulators took over the bank and sold most of its operations to New York-based JPMorgan Chase.
Spokesman Tom Kelly said JPMorgan Chase does not plan to close any WaMu branches in the state.
Nationally JPMorgan Chase is cutting 9,200 jobs, including 4,000 jobs now and 5,200 transition positions. WaMu had 43,000 employees nationally.
DIE U PIGS
Happy Depression Holidays from George, Dick and Alan.
Pencils 3 for a dollar (Made in China)...
The $10 money bomb shoe drop
Like you said Keith, it's Bernanke's financial crisis secret weapon. He said he's going to use it. Money bomb = greatest transfer of wealth in our time. Everyone will be much poorer and the stock market will in all likelihood crash again.
The next shoe to drop- Ecuador!
From Money&Markets
Key Date #1: Thursday, November 13. Seventeen days ago, the government of Ecuador failed to pay interest on bonds it had sold to investors. Citing plunging oil revenues, the government postponed its interest payments for a full month.
Key Date #2: Monday, December 15. Fifteen days from today, Ecuador must make those interest payments plus interest for the month of November. If it fails — if Ecuador defaults on its government bonds — it’s could be first the domino in a chain reaction of government debt defaults that will sweep the globe.
Putin will attack Ukrain within 90 days. He will lose control over gas supplies to Europe if he does't. His oil money has already dried up. Putin has been the middleman between Europes gas suppliers and Europe. They are cutting him out. Lets see how our one world government leaders in Washington handle Putin, China, and the middle East when they realize these tyrants don't give a rats ass for a chair at their table. As Booooooosh said, I looked into Putins soul and it was good. Those Corrupt dumbasses in Washington have no idea what they have caused. It will be raining huge shoes from here on out. Head for the bunker.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Fed will need another few trillion to cover this.
It used to be you got loans for apartment complexes and shopping malls from local banks. Then around 2003, Wall Street pigs saw how subprime lenders were packaging and securitizing residential loans so they thought why not commercial loans too. Since Wall Street was making the rules, they could offer high LTVs and sweet interest rates.
Trillions of dollars of commercial purchase and refi loans were done at high LTVs. Sometimes 100% LTV!
I know one guy who bought a 60 unit apartment complex with just 5% down. Investors who have owned properties for many years refinanced to cashout equity and get the low rates offered. Most of these loans were 5 year ARMs.
2004 + 5 = 2009 is when a flood of these loans start to reset. The cash flow on many properties is marginal to begin with. After a reset they lose money. Commercial lenders right now will not loan over 65% LTV based on todays value. Most properties do not qualify. I have heard estimates that as high as 30% of the commercial property in this country could be in default in the next few years.
Meanwhile, there are murmers that farmers are not able to get the loans they will need in order to plant crops next year.
If this is true, then come this time next year, there will be food shortages. Remember the rice issue earlier this year?
This may well have been only the first of the upcoming food crises.
You may have a wad of savings, a stack of guns and a pile of gold, but if you do not have food and are unable to produce your own, then you are truly S.O.L.
-Mammoth
Ruh Roh...
12:48 pm pst
Market DOWN 545!!! points on Bushco recession/depression 'apology'.
Wake UP the PPT and tell them to put the crack pipe down and GET TO WORK WITH A 1PM RALLY, dammit.
Note to Baldo and Beardo:
Your something-for-nothing jimminy crickett golly-gee plans to enrich your friends while fucking over the american voting taxpayer public are not working.
Note to Bearded Bald Ben:
0% won't make a difference except aunt clara will be eating cat food this winter while she slowly freezes to death. See "Japan 1990-Present" for more information.
Note to stuttering "Hank":
Are you just about finished with your phony-baloney bailout program? Haven't you enriched your felon friends enough? 9,000 foreclosures a day cannot be all bad - eh? Step down while you still have a shred of dignity left. Grow a beard and chant Krishna with bells on your fingers at airports. Americans are stupid and have no memory in 25-30 years they will forget who you are...
Main Street America and THE REST OF THE WORLD are sharpening up their pitchforks...
Happy Depression Holidays!
PS: Salvation Army pots now are a non-theft high-impact plastic Made in China for 'Security'.
DIE U PIGS
Ahh, another day, another 600 point drop on the Dow.
Rapid increase of interest rates after the 12/16 cut, will kill the bond and stock market. There will be an avalance of selling in the markets. The elite will be buying everything on-site and this little game that is called life will start all over again. It will peak in about 30 years again when more bubbles will start/finish in order for the elite to sfisr sell and then accumulate wealth and power for the next generation.
While this happens we will be fed a steady dose of lies, new economic theories, and related crap.
The game is really very simple, most people are ignorant of history, my own two sons included, and can't properly frame a problem in the contect of the past; it is all about power, and money is one of the means of power.
In the case of George, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Sometimes people are pushed too far and the pitchforks do come out...
Thank you President Bushco for the apology for causing the Next Great Depression.
The market rewarded your reckless and dangerous remarks with a 679.9 point drop (or -7.7% in ONE day)in the Dow. Financial Markets around the world are in Chaos. You must be So Proud...
Not even your phony Wall Street PPT could stop the tide from coming in (or OUT, depending on your perspective).
Good thing the market closed or maybe the Dow would have gone to 0 like your genius Helicopter Ben will do to interest rates soon...
Haven't you done enough damage to America and its people?
Why not resign, go to Paraguay to the New Ranch and Be Gone? Maybe your GOP pal Gov. Sarah Palin would help you hook up with a time-honored alaskan tradition of putting the useless and disgraced elders out to sea on a melting ice floe?
Think about it.
Major ethanol producer files for bankruptcy
by Rich Bowden - Nov 2 2008, 22:31
VeraSun Energy, one of the major producers of ethanol in the U.S., has filed for bankruptcy after citing rising costs and liquidity problems.
In a statement released Friday, the company said a series of events had caused the move, including a rise in the price of corn, worsening capital market conditions and a tightening of trade credit.
VeraSun is one of the country's largest ethanol producers, with operations based in South and North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa and Michigan.
I can't find the other article...but I read somewhere that the corn farmers have not been paid.
Inaugeration will be a pretty big shoe, but there will probably be another one before then. This decline is steep. 5 million people are decending on the nation's capital and will freak out.
Maybe this is it:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D94Q55T80&show_article=1
One by one, each state goes bellyup.
The Black Horse. The third horseman. Massive world wide famine. This is also known as the death of capitalism or commerce.
We has already experienced pestilence (AIDS, Bird flu, Ebola, etc) and Wars (Gulf War 1, Balkans, Gulf War 2, Iraq, Afghan, and the War on Terror, etc.)
Now comes the break down of world wide trade and it's resulting famines.
It hath been foretold:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Horsemen_of_the_Apocalypse
Finally after the famine, comes the last of the four horsemen, the big one ... Slim Pickens riding on the big from a B-52.
Poof! We're gone.
Bank of America or JP Morgan Credit Default Swaps come knocking at their door steps for collection as the next ARM Loan of Wave resets come pushing in. Make no mistake the tsunami is coming!
we were talking about this before the holiday season of '07 here at my house about how the lack of consumer credit was going to be a slap in the face for those still on denial about the recession.guess that shoe is dropping as we speak.
this will be the last credit card Christmas for the masses.
next year will be:
A layaway Christmas
I’m surprised ya’ll aren’t seeing it.
It’s right in front of our noses.
The other Shoe is the so called ‘Global Economy’
Yes – the one that did not really exist 10 years ago (pre- credit bubble)
Europe is going to tank like never before.
There was never a real economy in Europe; it was always an extension of the US economy.
And unlike other Global economies (that will also tank) Europe had the worse part of it, the crappy inexperienced financials.
Ouch -- big haircut on Wall Street today (predictable).
What would bring the system off its knees and flat on its back? Several good ideas have been mentioned -- famine, drought, credit tightening, terrorists and so on. But for my money, an increase in oil & natural gas would be the icing on the cake. Just when you thought it was safe to get back on the freeway... OIL SHOCK PART II.
If the recession is protracted, it could happen as investment in new supply fails to pace depletion -- standard peak oil scenario.
May you live in interesting times.
Hey,
Now is a good time to buy,
rates are low..
So Keith,
Can we quit the charade and admit that Obama's "Hope and Change" was all just a big charade?
Obama’s National Security Team: Minions of the New World Order
How much longer do we want to continue being conned by this two party control system?
What could send this meltdown into overdrive in an instant?
If somebody told the truth?
Here's what I see coming besides the obvious (commercial real estate meltdown and consumer credit crunch):
1. Second and third wave of mortgage defaults and total housing collapse. The once-hot markets will be hit harder (the reason why I think you should re-start HP, Keith!)
2. Total collapse of the dollar. Countries with currencies pegged to the US$ decide to de-couple.
3. Britain joins the Euro-zone to protect sterling and to present the Euro as an alternative currency (a desperate move that won't work since the Euro-zone itself is in turmoil)
4. China invades Taiwan and sides with Pakistan in its looming nuclear war with India. US forces sent by Obama to Afghanistan caught in the crossfire and the US is dragged into a war it doesn't need between India and Pakistan, with the threat of a direct confrontation with China (remember that the current commercial mutual deterrence with China would have already ceased to exist since Obama decided to curtail imports from China in a protectionist move to create jobs at home)
5. The oil cartel drops the dollar as a trade currency and adopts the Yuan (due mainly to Obama's policies to develop alternatives to imported oil)
6. China signs pacts with OPEC members (Iran as the facilitator), Russia and most Asian, African and Latin American states (mainly oil for military protection, food, manufactured goods and weapons)
7. Stock trading stopped indefinitely.
8. Paulson, Dodd, Mozilo, and many Wall Street and NAR fat cats jailed.
9. GOP regains majority in both chambers of Congress.
10. Obama impeached for mishandling the economy and the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush and Cheney absolved from any wrongdoing.
11. Canada opens its doors to Americans seeking asylum.
12. Corporate media shut down for lack of revenue (MSM discredited forever--ratings at floor level-- the internet becomes sole source of news and entertainment)
13. Popcorn becomes gold!!!
14. ...and finally, Lawrence Yun resigns!
Stay tuned for more...
ah yes, the "unknown unknowns" to quote a former sec def.
terrorists managing to set off a nuke. that would do it.
You may have a wad of savings, a stack of guns and a pile of gold, but if you do not have food and are unable to produce your own, then you are truly S.O.L.
-------------------------
if that happens uncle sam will step in to fill the void. a couple hundred (billion) should do it.
Anonymous, somewhere, said "another hit on our soil". That would kick it into overdrive for sure.
In Las Vegas, Blockbusters are getting boarded up; Rite Aids have already been boarded up for months. My local Smith's grocery store is boarded up and I just heard from a neighbor that our local Von's will soon be boarded up.
Looks like I need to invest in boards.
Every "major" shopping mall in Las Vegas is for-sale. Even Red Rock, which was to be hugely high-end, but got stuck at the framing stage.
Maria Bartaromo said today that we're officially in a recession. Finally.
Now, everybody is going to be yapping about it. I guess we've passed another hurdle. I still don't see fear and panic, just short tempers.
I am excited that the CA real estate I've had my eyes on has dropped $180K in 6 months and still sitting. I expect in another 6 months it'll drop another $100K.
someone mentioned the global economy going bust. that is a good one.
there hasn't been any "decoupling" of economies (this is going to cost schiff dearly). the global economy is built on the back of the american consumer.
@Ahmed said...
"I’m surprised ya’ll aren’t seeing it.
It’s right in front of our noses.
The other Shoe is the so called ‘Global Economy’"
That's along my line of thinking. Within 12 month Britain will pull an "Iceland" on us. Complete core meltdown of the entire banking system in England and a somewhat milder version in the Euro-zone. Followed by civil unrest in China & India.
Commercial real estate and credit cards are just freak side shows. The big Kahuna is when Britain goes belly up.
"You may have a wad of savings, a stack of guns and a pile of gold, but if you do not have food and are unable to produce your own, then you are truly S.O.L.
-------------------------
if that happens uncle sam will step in to fill the void. a couple hundred (billion) should do it."
Bernanke will just print a few billion happy meals, don't worry.
Afterthought said...
What could send this meltdown into overdrive in an instant?
If somebody told the truth?
Yes. That is all it would take isn't it?
Another vote for commercial real estate. The banks have been waiting out the market for the past year, only to finally realize a turn-around is not in the cards. In my area, we are just beginning to see the first of the big comm. foreclosures. Today, it was the bank take-back of a $5 mil. vacant apt building site that was permitted and ready to build with paid impact fees in 2006.
Some commercial property is still listed at 2005/2006 prices, while we have others that have dropped list prices 70% (to 2003 pre-boom levels), and still no takers. Who the heck can afford to hold this stuff for 5 more years?
Like Lady Di said – “look out below”.
Balloon payments loom! - Fla. Comm. Appraiser.
Full out civil war\unrest in mainland China would send the global markets into turmoil. As someone pointed out earlier China invades Taiwan. This would be a good diversion for the people to keep their minds off of unemployment rate.
Lagwagon
Paulson is as close to the selling of those bogus trillions of derivitives and a self profit of a half a billion as bush was to all the bogus enron scammers and scams and the finance of his election campaigns. and yet look what followed soon after the realizations of such.........................
And the winner is....
JaneZ, who wrote,
"If somebody told the truth?
Yes. That is all it would take isn't it?"
1. New York City real-estate
2. Credit card debt
3. China not buying Treasuries
From washingtonpost.com:
"The U.S. military expects to have 20,000 uniformed troops inside the United States by 2011 trained to help state and local officials respond to a nuclear terrorist attack or other domestic catastrophe, according to Pentagon officials."
Obviously the government is expecting SOMETHING to happen soon. Or maybe these troops will be needed to quell the riots of outraged citizens when they realize they have all been fleeced.
And the truth is that, Britain is not unique
“all of Europe” is going to collapse
Wow -- I had not read my Kunstler yet for this week -- http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/12/does-mr-o-know.html
Peak Oil baby. Hope you can walk to town.
Interesting times!
the global economy is built on the back of the american consumer.
If that's true, what a sad little planet this is.
"And the truth is that, Britain is not unique"
Yes they are very unique having the biggest bubble of them all and an economy entirely based on financials. It will be the biggest bust of any economy the world has ever seen, mark my words.
"Bank liabilities in the United States are about 20 percent of the size of the economy. In Britain, the figure is 285 percent."
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/28/even-uk-guarantee-cant-stop-housing-crash/?ref=patrick.net
Several Euro-zone countries like Germany never had a housing bubble, so things won't get as bad over there.
Here are some things that would allow the other shoe to drop:
1) Israel bombing Iran (which it is likely to do...and should)
2) Govt. buying up massive amounts of foreclosed homes (which will ultimately kill housing prices)
3) Unemployment at 12% (there will be many protests all over America and in DC)
4) Russia bringing nukes to Venezula (which will cause a military confrontation between the U.S., Russia, and Venezula)
5) Commercial real estate implodes(causing retail, industrial, and professional building bankruptcies)
All, or perhaps any one, of these will cause either the stock market or housing market to tank.
I'd say all are likely to happen by the end of next year.
US-Government declaring insolvency
Happy European
the global economy is built on the back of the american consumer.
No, the global economy is the engine and the American consumer is the caboose.
Putin will attack Ukrain within 90 days. He will lose control over gas supplies to Europe if he does't
Sorry why did anonymus say this. I might be going there for a week soon. I do not look forward to a vacation invasion.
Major Pension Failure - large company, municipality or state is unable to honor pension obligations
Large insurer unable to pay annuity holders
The shoe has dropped. But it will be awhile before you feel the impact. There is a lot of talk here, of end-of-the-world, armegeddon scenarios. The truth is, you wish it would be that cut and dry. You wish when it gets that bad, it might actually end. But it won't end. This has happened before. First off, check out one of our previous financial crises--1340. Yes, you read that right, 1340. Read all about it at: http://www.myprops.org/content/How-Venice-Rigged-The-First-and-Worst-Global-Financial-Collapse-660-Years-Ago/
Then, when you've gotten a wider perspective on that one, think about the other shoe I present to you.
When the bee hives collapsed, it didn't really generate much of a buzz. (I know, that's a really lame pun.) And why would it? Who gives a rats ass about bees? Not many, apparently. And by themselves, maybe it's not that terrifying. So the world gets on without bees. Big deal.
Except, what is really frightening, is in addition to this, a number of regions across the country have reported that their oak trees have not dropped a single acorn this year. Nothing at all. No one has ever seen this before. New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia: no acorns.
The shoe has already dropped, setting things in motion. It dropped, and you didn't even hear it; it didn't even excite your interest. You were looking for nukes and stock market plunges as likely candidates to end your world. Maybe all it takes are bees and acorns, or lack thereof.
A major US auto maker will declare bankrupcy.
Israel surfaces a couple of their submarines(yes they have submarines) and sends a few cruise missiles (yes they are outfitted with cruise missiles) into the general neighborhood of Iran's oilfields and several big mushroom clouds are seen rising 10's of thousands of feet into the air (yes they have nukes). Game over......
Just like the Handmaid's Tale...go to the atm and be denied...maybe just the immigrants at first, then maybe just the unemployed, then maybe the women, then, what the heck Joe Plumber, then maybe the folks on the no fly list, then...
This is not a shoe, but perhaps a slipper...
Pimco cancels dividend payments for 6 funds
December 01, 2008: 10:03 AM EST
NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Pacific Investment Management Company Inc. on Monday canceled announced dividend payments for six of its funds, saying the weak market has pushed the value of those funds below legal thresholds.
The dividends declared Nov. 3 that were scheduled for payment Monday will not be paid for Pimco New York Municipal Income Fund, Pimco Municipal Income Fund II, Pimco California Municipal Income Fund II, Pimco Municipal Income Fund III, Pimco California Municipal Income Fund III and Pimco New York Municipal Income Fund III.
"Continued severe market dislocations and recent further erosions in the municipal bond market have caused the values of the Funds' portfolio securities to decline," the company said. As a result, the funds' asset coverage ratios have fallen below 200 percent, it explained, and federal law prohibits a fund from paying or declaring common share dividends below that threshold.
Yoski,
You are close, but I think the order will be as follows:
Ireland, England then Switzerland.
The Swiss bank liabilities to GDP are so large, its just silly. Then, all those oil shieks etc sitting in the swissy will panic. Big. Into gold.
China Holds the key to what happens in the USA
lOOK OUT FOLKS ..IT'S GOING TO BE UGLY
http://seekingalpha.com/article/108530-china-s-manufacturing-crisis-deepens
Schwarzenegger declares fiscal emergency in Calif.
when the states welfare and foodstamp checks bounce.. Then you will see the riots start ...
Just ask Rodney King.....
Pakistan and India throwing nukes at each other
FHA bad debt wave is about to hit
Time.
You're just fooling yourself if you think there's another shoe to drop.
We can't afford no shoes as it is!
The inimitable words of Mr. Frank Zappa said it best then and even now:
Hey lawdy mama,
Can't afford no shoes
Maybe there's a bundle of rags that I could use
Hey anybody,
Can you spare a dime
If you're really hurtin', a nickel would be fine
Hey everybody
Nothin' we can buy
Chump hare rama, ain't no good to try
Recession
Depression
"Cross-border fighting between India and Pakistan. Threat of regional war, between Nuclear powers, would bring the whole card game to an end."
Two neighbors fighting - each launches a nuke, then the big guns i.e. Russia and the U.S.A. step in and stop them from bombing the entire atmosphere in to a nuclear winter. But only after 700 million people in the two countries have perished.
Perhaps they let the war spread into other parts of the middle east and allow it to continue as a big massive "clearing out" of potential troublemakers for the near future.
Anyone surviving in the environments existing thereafter would be hardly a threat and the two superpowers would manage the wealth with China at this point also stepping in to divide up the world into 4 nice chunks.
Each of the 4 powers that result, i.e. Russia, U.S.A., China, Japan/Europe would then manage their respective part of the globe and lock their currencies to a single "North Star" currency.
Sounds far-fetched and almost humorous but that's what I hear the interns talking about while I got my second Brain MRI after I had an eplilleptic fit yesterday while I was at a christmas market drinking some hot spiced rum.
How about on Friday Dec 5th the Supreme Court decides to hear one of many lawsuits claiming that Obama isn't an American Citizen.
Then after hearing the case rules him ineligible to run in the first place and Bush stays in office.
Then Anarchy!
RayNLA
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28006645/
Panel warns biological attack likely by 2013
Report recommends Obama administration prepare for germ warfare
Germany, the world's second largest exporter has superior infrastructure, amicable ties to Russia it's main source of natural gas and some of the best engineers and machine builders anywhere in the world.
They also have extensive energy resources in the form of coal and a moderate enough climate to support sufficient agriculture for it's population, including the companies to produce the machinery necessary to maintain a viable agriculture and infrastructure.
The average German has a positive net savings and high-school level intelligence or education.
Immigration is moderate and immigrants are typically (but not always) reasonably well integrated into German life and culture and also form an important part of Germany's economy.
The influx of new immigrants is kept within reasonable limits (here too not ideal but far better than the situation the US has).
And Germany's highways, bridges and rail network, it's digital communications network and other infrastructures, i.e. electrical grid and sewer, wastwater treatment and water supply, trash incineration etc. are the best in the world. (for contrast, take a look at italy where trash piles up in the streets and people set fire to it causing incredible problems)
If Europe is toast, then Germany will most certainly still be on top if not able to profit from the downturn.
Just my opinion since I'm currently living and working there as a contractor.
Truly amazing infrastrucure.
"..10. Obama impeached for mishandling the economy and the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush and Cheney absolved from any wrongdoing."
LOL. This made me laugh like I haven't laughed in years. "Bush and Cheney absolved from any wrongdoing." HaHaHaHa...Oh God...Where do people come up with this stuff?
When the bee hives collapsed, it didn't really generate much of a buzz. (I know, that's a really lame pun.) And why would it? Who gives a rats ass about bees? Not many, apparently. And by themselves, maybe it's not that terrifying. So the world gets on without bees. Big deal.
Except, what is really frightening, is in addition to this, a number of regions across the
--------------------
The bees are not even from here in the first place. They came from Europe with the first settlers, just like fruit trees, horses.... The list goes on.
There's a reason why the "Indians" didn't become as civilized as Europeans, they did not have horse power, or domesticable animals. It's hard to increase crop output and grow without them.
That's the story of North America. We screwed up its environment from the onset. No one seems to realize this. I don't know how long we can go on fighting the forces of nature, I guess time will tell. Mother Nature is showing us signs, that's for sure.
my black swan. hmm..
E a r t h q u a k e
around the full moon.
and not the money kind.
that's my black swan
(or, wait, now that i'm expecting it, its turned into a gray swan?)
The credit rating of the United States could fall from the AAA level it has always had down one or two notches. Right now the new debt being created by all of the various emergency financial measures is bearable because interest rates are at record low levels -- about 3 to 4% on 30 year bonds, just about zero on the extremely popular 3 and 6 month Treasury bills that are now so much in demand. Any rise in interest rates, even if quite modest, could make it very difficult for the US to service its debts, triggering a credit rating change.
Greg Swann admits he was wrong
Yoski said:
‘Several Euro-zone countries like Germany never had a housing bubble, so things won't get as bad over there.’
You might want to check the data before posting your opinion.
The ‘entire EU’ especially Germany has / had (for the past 10 years) the biggest fattest Housing /Credit bubble ever.
And we know what happens next,
the biggest fattest economic crash ever.
Europe is not going to survive this one.
Check out this black swan folks.
The entire internet could have been compromised or shut down.
Wow.
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/16-12/ff_kaminsky?currentPage=all
Martin Rose said...
Except, what is really frightening, is in addition to this, a number of regions across the country have reported that their oak trees have not dropped a single acorn this year. Nothing at all. No one has ever seen this before. New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia: no acorns.
You can add Utah to the list. My whole yard is scrub oak forest. Normally we are bombarded with acorns hitting the roof in October. I rake up mountains of them every year. Normally I have squirrels everywhere.
Not a freakin acorn one this year. Squirrels gone since early summer. I read something this week that said squirrels are starving on the East Coast. Attacking hotdog vendor carts in Central Park.
Geez Louise....
" especially Germany has / had (for the past 10 years) the biggest fattest Housing /Credit bubble ever."
Wrong! You're probably confusing Germany with Ireland or Spain or something.
Yoski,
What I'm interested in is how much the Swiss and Austrians lent out to eastern Europe. I'm not hearing much on that. With a name like Yoski, maybe you know?
Peace -MC
Sorry why did anonymus say this. I might be going there for a week soon. I do not look forward to a vacation invasion
Be carefull, the real story is not economic, it is world war 3. The arrogence of Americans or perhaps the people who blog here is that they have not studied what caused the last 2 world wars. People go to church because they believe in God. They do not believe there is a devil?????????
@Matt
"What I'm interested in is how much the Swiss and Austrians lent out to eastern Europe."
You mean Swiss and British, Austrians weren't too big in lending. There're a bunch of banks that gambled on Wall Street and lost big time, mostly German, Swiss and French.
Then you had a bunch of Brits buying real estate all over Europe, mostly in Britain, Spain and eastern Europe (Black Sea area of Bulgaria & Romania). That bubble was financed by British Banks and is in the early stages of busting. When it blows it will be truely spectacular. As I said Britain is the next Iceland.
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