January 15, 2009

Is it starting to feel like this crash will never end?


Despondency and Depression. It's everywhere. It's worldwide.

And some say this crash will indeed never, ever end. That it REALLY IS different this time. That there is no reset button.

Hmmm...

Doesn't that give you some hope?

33 comments:

Afterthought said...

I'll become bullish on America at the precise moment we choose short term pain for long term gain.

We are far, far, FAR from that moment right now.

Roccman said...

will the crash end...?

nope

blackberries and the ability to split wide open children's heads from 1/2 mile are the crowning jewels of our species.

enjoy the deioff!!

keith said...

SocGen says Depression ahead:

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE50E39G20090115

Depression ahead, prepare for stock rout: SocGen

LONDON (Reuters) - Societe Generale said on Thursday that the United States' economy looks likely to enter a depression and China's could implode.

In a highly bearish note, veteran cross asset strategist Albert Edwards said investors should now cut equity exposure after a turn-of-the-year rally and prepare for a rout.

He predicted that the S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks could be set for a fall of around 40 percent from recent levels.

Anonymous said...

I was hedged for the dollar to go either way, but now it looks like the dollar will hold its own in the shit storm. And just as perversely, the S&P is going to rally as the money spigots open wide in 2009. China's growth will slow to less than 5% and their economy will implode. The EU is toast.

The coming money bomb in the U.S. is much like Greenspan's ploy in 1998 when he pumped $2T into the economy because he feared Y2K runs on the banking system. We ended up with the dotcom boom that rallied stocks to record highs.

Like the dotcom saga, it wil end badly and 2012 will be fugly to the max.

Anonymous said...

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Apple Inc probably will be sued by investors unhappy with the company's about-face on the health of its visionary chief executive, but the law is not clear on what duty the company has to disclose personal medical information, legal experts said on Wednesday.

Apple said CEO Steve Jobs, 53, will take a medical leave of absence until June. The announcement that comes just nine days after the pancreatic cancer survivor downplayed investor concerns about his dramatic weight loss in recent months, saying it was caused by an easily treatable hormone imbalance.

Analysts and investors complained that Apple was slow to disclose Jobs' true medical status and to form a succession plan after his 2004 cancer treatment because of his crucial role in vetting the company's forward-looking designs.

Anonymous said...

The public is hardly looking at their 401k's. They know its down sharply but they refuse to open the envelope sort of speak. So no bottom yet. Also that SocGen guy has been bearish for 10yrs pre dot com boom. Do a Google search on him.

keith said...

The governments of the world have never, ever been this stimulative.

0% interest rates and trillions and trillions in government spending.

There's never been a more interesting time in economics.

This could end in a Great Great Depression, or it could end in a hyperinflationary bubble and mania unlike anything ever seen before.

Get popcorn.

keith said...

Looks like all the banks are going out of business today

Wow.

Time to just nationalize all of 'em?

Anonymous said...

Calling Al Gore and his legion of retards. Some global warming, huh? Oh ok, got it, if it's cold is because of global warming, and if it's hot too. It's freaking 60 degrees down there in Miami!

KANSAS CITY, Missouri (Reuters) - A blanket of frigid air moving across part of the United States Wednesday tied up transportation and sparked farmer fears of damage to crops and livestock.

In northern Minnesota, temperatures dropped to 40 degrees Fahrenheit below zero, and record lows near that were recorded in North Dakota as single-digit and sub-zero temperatures spread through a broad swath of the country's northern and central tiers.

As the bitter cold moved south and combined with snow and ice in some areas, the sudden plunge in temperature fueled farmer fears that vulnerable young wheat plants could suffer, and ranchers fretted over how to keep weight on cattle and hogs for market.

"Everything is harder when it is cold," said Kevin Gilbert, a hog producer in Ionia, Iowa, where single-digit temperatures were forecast to fall to 18 degrees Fahrenheit below zero on Thursday.

Anonymous said...

It took years to get us here, it's gonna take a decade to get us out!

Anonymous said...

Keith, I am on a work trip to Oxnard, Ca and things look the same as they were five years ago. Still the same amount of for sale signs, but now they are not selling. Traffic and places to eat seem busy. When is it going to hit? People are still acting normal, instead for talking about how high prices will go they now they talk about how they knew it was coming and positioned to make some money. Back home the house across the street is being foreclosed on, some investor type bought it and now can't make it. I still don't see it crashing as fast as I once thought.

Anonymous said...

Steven P. Jobs:

Jobs, rhymes with Robs...

DIE U PIGS

Noodles said...

Check out this article quoting C. Serin as a somewhat responsible failed speculator. As a plus, they also mention pets.com

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/14/politics/otherpeoplesmoney/main4720465.shtml?ref=patrick.net

Mike Hunt said...

Aaah, S&A, the thinking persons' blog...

Good question Keith. What does it mean when we consider ourselves to be contrarians and yet it really does feel like the financial world is ending! But I don't think we are in the bottom of the trough yet... so maybe time to buy???

What the hell.. put 10% of your net worth in... call it the emotional gambit gamble, may pay off, may be like catching a falling knife.

As for global cooling / warming... here in Bangkok it's fucking cold ... 18 C at night. I've been here 3 years and it's never been this cold. Normally 23 C is the low and that's for 5 days in the year. It's been cool the last 45 days with very cold (sub 20 C) temps the last week. Loving it because it is unbearably hot but clearly something isn't normal, weather-wise!!!

-Mike

Anonymous said...

The Supreme Depression.

Better lie back and enjoy it.

Anonymous said...

I can now really see the DOW Jones hitting 3000. I believe it really is going to happen!

Anonymous said...

keith said...
The governments of the world have never, ever been this stimulative.

0% interest rates and trillions and trillions in government spending.

There's never been a more interesting time in economics.

This could end in a Great Great Depression, or it could end in a hyperinflationary bubble and mania unlike anything ever seen before.

Get popcorn.

January 15, 2009 2:39 PM

----------
Keith,

I can't get popcorn, is to expensive. :(

Anonymous said...

Most are still in denial of their plans and pain to come.

Guberville Smack said...

Feel like it will never end?
What?
It's not even 2010 yet.

Anonymous said...

You always seem to be 2 ticks further ahead on the scale than my estimation. I'd say we are somewhere between denial & fear.

Anonymous said...

I think we are still in panic and heading down from there. Of course it will end!! But will probably last a lot longer than we are used to.

As for those "dots" on your graph, each one of those phases takes different lengths of time. although the dots are placed equi-distant from each other....the "panic" could be fast but it will take more time to work through the actual "depression".

Personally I think things will be Ok gain when employment is stable and more people are re-employed. (2+ years) Although an avid investor, I am done with Wall Street for the near term.

JAWS said...

The first week of Jan, as I drove around Vegas it looked like a For Lease bomb had hit. My eyes could not look in any direction without seeing a com'l For Lease sign.

There is just a ton of com'l property here, especially in the Red Rock area. Lots of it just completed construction mid-08 and is still sitting empty. Add to that the mid-construction halted building and yikes.

But, I met friends at a local high-end restaurant/bar on Tuesday, in the cold, wearing our coats and gloves so we could sit outside. It was packed, literally packed, outside in the cold. And, it isn't cheap.

Batman said...

Right now the main denial phase we are in is something like "the patient is sick, but will recover if we give him enough steroids". 'Might work for a bit.

WRT to anon troll who says there is no climate change because it's cold today in central Redstate-istan: nice rock solid logic Einstein, you're ready for the Sarah Palin school of climatology.

investorinpa said...

You want hope? Here's a commercial for AllState that I think will be the first in a series of new ads designed to give us hope in troubled times. Its very well done and the people of America will bounce back. Just scroll over the pic of Dennis Haysbert: http://www.ingoodhands.com/

never_forget_y2k said...

I'd say the sheeple are mostly in 'Anxiety'.

I personally however just moved into 'Panic'. I will be locked in my closet clutching a firearm and my krugerrands while I wait for the rest of my fellow sheeple to catch up.

Anonymous said...

...They have no idea, no idea, how it's bad out there... No idea. They have no idea...

Guys! This time IT IS different.

Anonymous said...

Crash will never end?
Have you ever seen a crash in your live? Really?

You haven't seen nothing yet. Believe me.

I lived my first 28 years in Russia and 8 years in the USA. I can compare.

Guys! The crash haven't started yet. :)

Anonymous said...

WRT to anon troll who says there is no climate change because it's cold today in central Redstate-istan: nice rock solid logic Einstein, you're ready for the Sarah Palin school of climatology.

-----------------------------------

Different anon here. With record cold temperatures in the North East, I side with the 90% who believes that Al Gore is full of BS. Sorry sire, but you are among the 10% who still believe in snake oil and Santa.

Brian said...

This thread isn't about climate change the main indicators that can show long term trends (as opposed to subjective assessments based on perception) are icepack and glaciers. Show me one that is growing. ONE. I will show you every single one I can think of on the globe that is shrinking.

Is it human caused? Not 100% proven yet IMHO (but the case is decent, and I am a very difficult to convince engineer). Concerning something that has the potential to cause irreversible damage to the planet, is it prudent and responsible to err on the side of caution? I dunno, do you have kids you don't hate?

Tool Box said...

Gee anons, the government scientists I work with have been convinced that climate change is real for a decade or more, and now only speak in terms of "how much", not if.

You can believe anything you want, but your belief is unlikely to matter in the end -- unless you are going to sign up for some faith-based science. I think one of the biggest contrarian plays you could make would be buying coastal property in South Florida, since most folks I know think it will be under water in 50-100 years and you already can't get insurance.

Anonymous said...

.



Where the F**K is Al Gore?????



.

Daphne64 said...

I don't really fit on your chart. I just switched from shadenfreud (not sure about spelling) to fear.

The doom is coming nearer ... foreign countries won't be ponying up $2 trillion to the US for very long. Money printing follows immediately, and since the US isn't bothering to disguise their money printing, inflation will follow very soon.

I am not as prepared as would like to be, and no amount of preparation would put one in the situation of eating popcorn. You gonna eat popcorn while shooting would-be looters? I hope none of us are THAT crass.

And by the way, I am terribly afraid the chart will not complete, just like it didn't at the end of the Roman Empire. A real crisis involves the very real risk that things will go very, very wrong.

And considering that not one government official is even timidly saying "sorry, but it looks like we can't afford heart bypass surgery for 90 year olds anymore" the outlook for real leadership is quite bleak.

Anonymous said...

I think one of the biggest contrarian plays you could make would be buying coastal property in South Florida, since most folks I know think it will be under water in 50-100 years and you already can't get insurance.

Oh now you geniuses are making predictions 50 to 100 years ahead of us? Gee, I wonder if your cristal balls were also paid by grants (aka taxpayer), bunch of thieves. You sound like those Wall Streets annalists who predict that somewhere in the future we'll have a bull market again.

GLOBAL WARMING = PONZI SCHEME