1) Schiff was VERY right on what was happening, and the economic implosion that was to come
2) Schiff was VERY wrong on the US dollar and foreign stocks in 2008
3) Check back in 2015. We'll see who was right. I'd bet on Schiff. Big-time.
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26 comments:
Logic says he will be proven correct by 2015. Though how often have we made a prediction that turns out to be completely wrong? For most of us our predictions are probably wrong half the time.
Just look at the price of oil or gold. Who would have thought last year at this time, that today oil would cost $45 bbl, or gold would cost a mere $60 more an ounce today?
As investors what we can't see happening is very likely what will.
Schiff can't deny that his strategies on stocks the last twelve months have been wrong.
The dollar is still in question.
Both of these guys in my book are two of the best, if not THE two best.
One difference between the two is Mish is a lot more humble.
Kudos to Schiff - must have been really hard to be the lone voice in the wilderness.
Wonder if the rest of the Faux Talking Heads would laugh derisively now, or accuse him of being a doom 'n gloomer.
Yeah, Mish has been accurate, but he is so frickin self righteous. All high and mighty about how right he was. Whatever. There are so many douchebags out there that lost big bucks for their clients, yet Mish chooses to go after Schiff. A tad bit jealous of his fame and success, eh?
Here's the thing when you get on your pedestal and start calling people out. Karma happens, and payback is such a bitch.
It's one thing to disagree with some ones opinion , but to laugh in peters face is just the height of arrogance , Mike Norman you Dingle Berry " I don't know what peters is talking about " Damn straight you don't . In fact you obnoxious waste of skin you don't even know what you are talking about . How much money did you loose your clients last year , you are the epitome of what everyone hates about America .
Sorry about that rant , boy i feel sooooo much better now .
It's a shame to see Mish and Schiff going at it like that. Both have helped me tremendously over the last 2 years. I've managed to navigate the crisis pretty well so far in no small part due to these guys. However, it must be said that so far, Mish has been right on. Peter might be proven right in the long run, but that doesn't take anything away from Mish for calling the short term correctly.
vanilla ice:
Thanks for saying what I always bust Keith's chops for - people are wrong sometimes. The HP archive is a good example.
This has to be my favorite video clip of all time. Paticularly the portions of that exceptionally attractive man, Ben Stein, remarking that Merrill Lynch is an "astonishingly well run company". Hilarious. And Arthur Laffer's name is certainly appropriate.
Taps will now be played.
My experience is that timing is more important than being "right". Like they say a broken clock is right twice a day. Lately, Schiff has become a little too defensive, to the point of being offensive. When the general population thinks gold is a wise investment, I think its time to sell. My hope is that the government runs out of money before they can reverse the depression and that boomers with savings can retire and enjoy the benefits of declining prices and labor costs.
I'm now with Schiff more than ever. But I'm not just with Schiff, I'm with Jim Rogers, Mark Faber and Eric Janszen.
Yes, Schiff was wrong in the short term, nobody bats 1,000.
He will be proven right before 2015.
When Laffer bet Schiff a penny... If I were Schiff I would say "Make it an even million and I'll take that bet".
That would be classic.
-Mike
By 2015 anything can happen. Those betting on hyperinflation near term could suffer substantial losses as deflation CONTINUES and accelerates. So far, contrary to prior assertions of the inflationistas, there has been no sign of inflation whatsoever...
Schiff's biggest problem is that he equates issuance of Federal debt with "printing money". Printing debt and printing currency are two separate things altogether...So far the Fed hasn't "monetized" $1 of debt. Bernanke is a Monetarist and he won't give up on the credit markets until they have cratered and he has no other option - about $52 trillion to go... We are now transitioning from a credit-based economy to a cash-based economy which is going to be somewhat difficult to say the least. Soon people will be selling anything that isn't bolted down to get their hands on some cash...
Mish is a pretty smart guy, he's been more right than anyone else. Schiff was wrong on the decoupling and the dollar but overall he got the right idea. Another one I like is James Puplava at financialsense.com.
Every Saturday morning he has an awesome news cast on his web page.
Schiff has it wrong on "decoupling". there isn't any decoupling, therefore any investments outside the US will perform just as poorly and likely even worse.
schiff will continue with the big loses until he changes how he invests in order to profit from his correct macro view.
Schiff is sticking to his guns concerning the dollar decline. as long as he keeps it up he may eventually be correct.
Mish on the other hand thinks the dollar may eventually get hammered... or it may not. in the near term he doesn't see it happening because the destruction of credit is so huge. Mish has stated many times that dollar will likely happen once the destruction of credit has leveled out. his view is invest for what is happening now or is about to happen, not what may likely happen in a couple of years because what goes on in between could wipe out any gains you get once you are finally correct.
Don't forget CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities) is yielding over 12%.
How many more banks are going to make it to the FDIC bank failed list this month.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
business/feedarticle/8333645
Gross explains that CMBS are now yielding over 12 percent versus 5 percent in recent years, making real-estate financing more expensive.
"As real estate financing comes due and rolls over in the next few years, it is imperative these yields return to mid-single digits if shopping centers, retail malls, and office buildings are to remain viable," Gross said.
Similarly, municipal yields are now trading at nearly twice their U.S. Treasury counterparts, resulting in higher borrowing costs for states and cities, Gross added.
>One of us is off base but it's definitely not me.
Great line Peter.
How come all the "experts" didn't see any of this coming? What a bunch of monkeys. Most of the financial types are absolutely incapable of independant analytical thought. You got to give Schiff a lot of credit to stand up to these idiots back in the bubble days.
What's really scary is, how few got it back then. Now those same fools that didn't see it coming are trying to fix this disaster. Downright scary.
>>3) Check back in 2015. We'll see >>who was right. I'd bet on >>Schiff. Big-time.
Yes, but if he continues with the same strategy he won't have any money left to invest in 2015.
on a macro level schiff is 100% right.
His investment strategy to profit from his macro outlook leaves a lot to be desired, to put it nicely.
he had better rework his investment strategy or else he is going to lose all his clients to Mish and will be left to selling books to make a living.
Schiff comes off as extremely desperate and defensive in this missive, rebutting Mish's critique(selected parts, anyway), while disrespectfully failing to identify him except by the condesdending reference to "the blogger in question."
Ultimately, Schiff writes: "I never held myself out to be a market timer. My advice was always geared to long-term investors."
Well, fine. But, how is that defense different from those of the hundreds of bullish fund managers whose funds performed equally poorly?
If I went on TV before the stock market crashed and said "buy stocks! Dow is going to 20,000!", I would have been WRONG on that call.
I can't say "Oh, well - it was a long-term strategy. Eventually Dow will be 20k and I'll be right". Nope - I was wrong, and I can never claim to be right just because eventually the stock market will go up again. That's just plain absurd.
If you lose 50% of your money listening to me, you need a 100% return before you get it back to break even. So, the person who didn't listen to me and still had 100% of their principal to invest in the stock market after it had already crashed, would have TWICE as much money when the Dow hit 20k than the person that listened to me.
Thus, Mish is correct - timing is everything. Schiff was right on housing and US stocks, but extremely wrong on foreign equities and decoupling.
If you ask GATA they would say the Central Banks sold Gold to manipulate the value of the dollar. The reverse reaction of gold prices (dropping) with every crisis has almost become humorous. They are probably right. It's not something Peter Schiff could realistically predict. Because it's almost time for them to run out of reserve gold for sale.
Schiff isn't wrong about decoupling if GATA is correct about the Central Banks selling gold to manipulate the US dollar. All bets are off if the manipulation is real - and GATA's evidence has always been compelling and level-headed.
I follow both. Mish's analysis are brilliant but IMHO very "short time horizon", 1 year tops. Hopefully he won't be over-focused reveling in his correct call of "deflation" that he forgets to warn his readers of the inevitable inflation that the fed is ramming down our throats. Schiff is going to be accurate in the "long term". So, for those who want to know "where do I place my bets and forget about it" bet on inflation, LOTS of it.
Personally, I'd take the advice of a visionary over an ambulance chasing attention hound anytime.
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