We said trillions would be lost. Trillions and trillions.And now $40 trillion has indeed gone away. With the taxpayer on the hook for trillions and trillions more.
Ugliest crash since the Great Depression.
The only question now is - will it be even worse?
Can anything make it end?
This chart looks like all hope, and all support, is now gone.
And this post is either a good sign of a bottom, or the beginning of the last and final cataclysmic chapter, and the end of the financial world.
Forget popcorn. This keeps up, get bullets.
Posts
63 comments:
"A once-in-100-years stock market crash? Dow 5,000 or below? And why would any sane person ever own a stock again?"
I think it will be well below 5,000. Wasn't the top 15,000. So a 90% sell off should take it down to......
http://tinyurl.com/br8yjq
"Look at your young men fighting,
look at your women crying,
look at your young men dying...
(It's) the way they've always done before..."
"Look at the hate we're breeding,
(& the doubt we've wallowed)
look at the fear we're feeding,
(& the leaders we've followed)
look at the lives we're leading... "
(& the lies we've swallowed...)"
(It's) the way we've always done before!!
(& I don't want to hear no more...) "
Plenty of ammo here. And if the gubermint comes to my door trying to take my guns and ammo, they better bring some fire power themselves because it will get ugly.
I own no stocks, but do own a very nice HK compact 45 cal handgun with lots of ammo. Been practicing alot lately. Also thinking about getting an HK compact 9mm - just like the one Jack Bauer uses. Now might be a good time to load up on some put options.
"Don't be economic Girlie- Men."
I can't eat bullets, man. I don't see anyone chowing down on bullets when the food shortages come.
Go look at a DOW chart from its inception and you will see the typical"head and shoulders" pattern.
Ain't No Stopping Us Now! I think that's a song.
DOW will go to around 2000. Get out while you can and short everything especially US Long Term Treasuries (TBT).
Good luck folks.
----Bo Jangles Obama Proclaims Budget to be 'halved'
by Terms End----
---Market Responds with Dow droping 150+ points--- PPT? Where are U?
---Public Responds by Sharpening up Pitchforks and record gun & ammo sales---
Here's an enlightened view of the New Tarp-Banking-Foreclosure Calculations A Must Watch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAPvvCxMibc&eurl=http://housingdoom.com/2008/08/15/op-ed-friday-corporate-or-government-accounting
the problem is not the market
it is the lack of a market
nobody trust this idiots anymore.. just ask Berney and Stamford why they don't
curropt PIGS
just wait till the large insurance companies start to FAIL
The sheeple have memories that go back fifteen minutes, tops.
Oh yeah. There will be stock bubbles again, and mutual funds will be marketed as if they were new ideas, and the sheeple will follow and pour their money into the stock market. The sheeple are suckers for beautiful tanned people in expensive suits, with shiny white teeth, and strong jaw lines --they'll do whatever these people tell them to do.. Particularly if it comes to them via a well produced info-commerical. Just you watch how the sheeple will forget...
A bottom is coming -- in 2012, but I don't think the markets will be denominated in dollars. My advice (worth $.02) is to get yourself out of USD holdings before June 1st. B-I-G, rock-yo-world changes are afoot with the central bankers.
Nobody wants in until they see that the crooks gaming it are out on their asses. Don't know if that will happen.
Why would the stocks go back up? They were up so high on a debt fueled economy over the last few years. Now that debt is not getting paid back. It is merely being shifted around. New policy is not calling for this debt to be paid back either. It will take years to recover from this.
here in florida gun shops are running out of bullets. Gun shops are making a Killing.
S&P’s below 750. I remember some investment house owner only two months ago saying on Bloomberg the S&P would never go below 750 again. Well I wonder what he’s saying now, what’s his explanation for his stupid prediction? F him. F all the cheerleading market analysts. Their predictions are all rigged by their own greed. Why should I trust any of them?
And after all the fearmongering from Bush, congress and investors, the world’s not falling apart as the Dow, S&P and every other index keeps crashing. Guess what Wall Street; it’s we the working schmucks who keep you in business, not the other way around. We don’t need you. Keep crashing and burning.
The last time('29-'32) it was nearly 60 years till it came back to the top; inflation-adjusted.
25 years to even return to the same nominal level.
Less optimistic people think it's much, much worse this time.
Do you all realize how close we're coming now to societal breakdown?
I can't believe what we're seeing.
It's like living in a dream.
I'd like to fast forward a year and see what the world looks like.
Fear is now running wild.
.
GO BUY YOUR AR-15 NOW BECAUSE RAHM EMANUEL (MOSSAD) IS COMING FOR IT.
.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29353992
Cramer blaming Geithner for destroying the markets.
I fully agree.
Tim Geithner is dangerously incompetent. And yes, my trust of Obama is plummeting by the minute.
Monkeys.
We apparently exchanged the old monkeys for equally incompetent new ones.
Every man for himself soon.
Good luck everyone.
You're on your own.
Dow 900
yes DOW 900
Don't doubt me.
If you're so scared then run under a rock and hide. The stock market isn't going away.
Jesus Keith, you've really lost it. I'm done with this blog. Thanks for the memories on HP and best of luck in the future.
I do not not always agree with you, but it takes a big man to admit he was wrong, especially publicly.
You are right - all are corrupt monkeys.
I was wrong - after today that $40 trillion loss number is probably more like $42 trillion
All the wealth of the world - poof - gone.
It truly is stunning.
Everyday the market tanks more and more retirees come out of hiding and back into the ever eroding job market. Unemployment to the moon.
How many trillions will be wiped if the DOW does 4 or 5 K? How many wothless 401K's does that equal? There was a piece on CNN about the auto workers who are now down to one shift a day, and not promised ANY next month. Folks, these are thousands of people who will be outta work and outta luck soon. There was another piece about near riots in Florida at the housing authority where 5000 people had lined up 24 hours in advance to get "on the waiting list" for government subsidized housing under section 8 and HUD. 5000 needing and 2000 spots on the waiting list---not even getting housing, just on the list to wait for it. Folks, I am a true optimist, but I dont think we seen nuthin' yet!!!
"Tim Geithner is dangerously incompetent. And yes, my trust of Obama is plummeting by the minute."
That is the funniest thing I read all day.
Once Ron Paul lost his followers, his followers lost their compass.
Keith is a good example of this phenomenon.
Running toward Obama and expecting hopeful change has turned into guilt riddled masses of people who are finally waking up.
Obama promised this to you; why are you surprised now that it is happening.
Marxism doesn’t work, but it will bring rioting in the streets and violence in the heartland,.
It might be; dig a bomb shelter rather than purchasing gold.
Purchase long shelf life survival food instead of a garden.
Water Filtration systems rather than water…
Because this kind of calamity could spark off a few nukes.
Gold, veggies and a garden won’t help if you are dying from radiation poisoning.
The solution comes down to surviving in a new world of pissed off inhabitants that believed Obama would pay off their Mortgage, cars and credit cards but got starvation, and other countries that have been sucked down the rabbit hole along with us.
Dig deep, and dig soon, see you after the Nuclear Winter turns to Spring.
"keith said...
Do you all realize how close we're coming now to societal breakdown?"
Returning a movie to local video store here in SillyCon Valley. Wanna Be washed-up MILF-type Soccer mom in huge SUV didn't get video she wanted so she threw a shit-fit tantrum and spit on the clerk... I am 6'1" @ 250 an no wimp but was waiting cautiously (ready-to-run) for her to pull a 9 out and kill everyone...
Minutes later, I witnessed her apprehemded by one of our cities men-in-black and another freak-out.
Careful, All, people are ready to snap over any little thing...
tick, tick, tick Ka BOOM!
George and Dick's Depression.
Helluva Job!
It really is very odd, and yes, I'm surprised. I thought Obama was competent and intelligent. I still think that. But man, we're really seeing some grade-A f*cking up right now. And by the time he pulls his head out of his ass, it might be too late. The damage may be catastrophic.
Now take my silly little 10 point plan. What would the market do if that actually happened? What would happen to consumer confidence? What would the reaction be around the world?
The market would go up 2000 points immediately, and this fever would break.
Instead, we get nothing. Geithner is nowhere to be found. And when we do get something, we get stupid. We get pork. We get gambler bailouts. And the market hates it.
It's just all very strange. It doesn't compute. It's as if Geithner and Obama WANT the market to crash, and the Dow to fall to zero.
Hmmm...
"Once Ron Paul lost his followers, his followers lost their compass."
How wrong you are. the number of Dr. Paul supporters is growing daily. And they, we are holding our ground and not loosing sight of direction. Just because the sheeple are to stupid to see our new found socialist gov is not working and the sheeple are the majority right now does not mean they will prosper. The new model is tainted and not sustainable.
Go, Ron Paul!!!
"We get gambler bailouts."
Isn't point one of your ten point plan, partially a gambler bailout? Come on admit it.
"Now take my silly little 10 point plan. What would the market do if that actually happened? What would happen to consumer confidence? What would the reaction be around the world?"
It will not cure the debt fever. Have you not retained anything Schiff has taught you?
Vanilla - no, I see offering 4% 40 years to anyone who is credit-worthy as a good investment, not a bailout. I'd lend the money myself.
The government can borrow at 2.5% and lend it out at 4% and make money for the taxpayer.
Now, if it can convince the sheeple to refi their loans at 4%/40 instead of walking away, then the New Great Depression will be avoided.
But if the sheeple all walk away from their homes, all the banks fail, and the government spends trillions and trillions more to pick up the tab, then you're f*cked. There will be no safe zone.
A bailout is when you cut the principal of what someone owes, or when you give them money.
I agree ...40 yr mortgages is not a bailout & the speculators who listened to realturds on crack would not be willing to refi anyway...They wanted instant wealth & paying for something more than 2 years was not in the plan.
Glad to see to you joining the group that sees what is about to happen.
upthecreek said...
just wait till the large insurance companies start to FAIL
------------------------------
That begins tomorrow with AIG. Also remember that they have had one big f**ng party since their first cash infusion.
There must be a new party scheduled and they need fuel for their Gulfstreams & Cessna Turbos.
Dow 5,000 is too optimistic.
There is zero reason to buy stocks.
Companies are slashing dividends left and right. Without dividends there is only one reason to own a stock and that's to gamble some other sucker will buy it from you at a higher price like the house bubble.
Give me a million dollar non-recourse loan and I might roll the dice, otherwise no way.
Keith -
I thought a few weeks ago you advised it was the MOABO? Stocks are even cheaper now. Are you not continuing to see this as a great opportunity?
The market would go up 2000 points immediately, and this fever would break.
See, this is the problem. Many people like you think that the S&P is the American economy. If it jumps 2,000 points, everything is swell...poof! all fixed. The stock market is a Ponzi scheme manipulated by several Madoffs and Stanfords. That's not the REAL economy.
Can't you see that this economy isn't creating any good jobs, just outsourcing and depressing wages with H-1B visas? The American worker is dead, without means to make enough money to carry this rotten economy. No matter how much your beloved S&P or AAPL may go up, the fundamentals won't change much.
Nafta, mass immigration, pork, lobbyists, unfair free trade, breeders, cronyism, dumbing down plan, outsourcing, fiat economy, gov union parasites, all killed the American worker.
As long as the gov doesn't notice that, there won't be good economy. EVER! There won't be anyone buying $4k Mac laptops or taking kids to Disneyworld, or visiting Paris, or trading cars, or going out for dinners, or buying electronics, or having $300/month crackberry or iPhone bills, or buying homes. Can't you people get it? What was the economy before? School bus drivers lying on mortgage application to buy a $800k mansion to support Mexican illegals and import raw materials from third world countries? Do you see that ever coming back, even with your 40 year mortgage? What good a 40-year fix mortgage does if the union parasites who work for the government keep destroying the states?
And the amazing part is that his gov wants to reignite the same old formula: big spending, bigger government, more pork, more mass immigration, Nafta, more union parasites, more welfare...
Who cares what the stock value for BofA or Citi are...we're in for bigger trouble.
Accidental laugh:
Googled for DJIA; hit "Maps" by mistake.
Where do you suppose I ended up?
I could care less. I made out like a fucking bandit and I have my money stashed away in a safe deposit box. I have six years worth of money saved up. So I am not worried. Plus, if things get really bad, I can always go to the old country where my uncles own a lot of land and they grow mangoes, rice, beans, and other fruits.
When everything is said and done, at least I can say I had one hell of a good time!
Time to get bullets? The time has passed. Let me tell you: Prior to summer 2008 I lived in a safe middle-class neighborhood. Little crime to speak of. Now we've had no less than 10 breakings-and-enterings, doors kicked in during daytime, since August 2008. Other crime is rampant. I've had to pull a gun twice now, on my own property, to confront aggression from persons who probably would have killed me in a heartbeat if they could get away with it.
Meanwhile the Americans living 10 miles down the road in "safe" (for now) gated communities, still using their homes for ATMS (believe it or not some are!) Seem shocked when I mention the issues in my 'hood.
Morlocks and Eloi, I tell you.
For now the police are impotent. They exist mostly to collect tax revenue via traffic tickets; secondarily to protect the wealthier upper-crust. Third mandate is to suppress acute violence. Actually providing security to the average citizen is a distant 4th priority. Will this situation improve as municipal budgets are constricted?
Yet most are still blind, ostriches with their heads in the sand.
Morlocks and Eloi, I tell you.
anonymous at 9:51, If we have a nuclear war, It is better to go in the first group. It takes a long time for radiation to break down. Your grandchildren will have two heads.
Hey, the market's back to 1997 again!
Time for some Hanson!
MMM BOP, ba duba dop
Ba du BOP, ba duba dop
Ba du BOP, ba duba dop
Ba duuu... yeah yeah!
See you tomorrow for the Macarena!
Next week, it's pre-World Wide Web!
Market will bounce from here. Why? Keeping it brief I'll just mention that sentiment is extreme bear after a slow motion crash. Sell the bounce to come...
"I thought Obama was competent and intelligent. I still think that. But man, we're really seeing some grade-A f*cking up right now. And by the time he pulls his head out of his ass, it might be too late."
(sigh) You're contradicting yourself. Could it be that BHO will never pull his head out of his ass because he is neither competent nor intelligent?
This chart isnt as scary as the linear chart.
Actually, the limear is more accurate - showing how high the market has gone up in the past 15 years.
This chart is tame.
4% mortgages would be a bailout because it's below the prevailing rate. And I don't know how the government would borrow enough at 2.5% to fund all these mortgages at 4%.
Not to mention the fact that the market needs to be allowed to work. houses are too expensive. I'd rather have a $100k house @ 10% interest than a $250k house @ 4% interest.
Also keith, your 10 point plan completely ignores that fact that the root of our problems can be laid at the feet of our monetary system. Debt-based currencies simply don't work.
You think the US is bad?
Japan hitting 27-year lows
Let me repeat that
27-year lows. Dead money since 1982.
And now the government might start buying shares, since people won't.
TOKYO, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said on Tuesday the government was studying measures to support the share market, which is flirting with 27-year lows.
Officials had been ordered to look into support for the stock market, including considering a call from the head of a business lobby group for the government to buy shares, he said.
So I did the inflation calculation as best I could
Dow is at 7114 and they say in the MSM "back to 1997 levels"
But when you adjust for inflation, 7114 in today's dollars is actually worth less than 5585 in 1997 dollars
Someone give this some thought and some math and explain to us in REAL terms, what year we're back to now. It ain't 1997. I think it's in the 80's.
What cost $7114 in 1997 would cost $9158.08 in 2007.
Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2007 and 1997,
they would cost you $7114 and $5585.93 respectively.
KEITH SAID...
It's just all very strange. It doesn't compute. It's as if Geithner and Obama WANT the market to crash, and the Dow to fall to zero.
Hmmm...
Ya Think.......all part of the engineered Depression
after the insurance companies fail it is all over...
February 23
September, 1996
DJIA = 5582
GET YER LARGE POTS FOR SOUP NOW........... THEY MAY BE A POOR MANS JOB SOON ENOUGH........
OH AND, I HAVE BEEN TOLD THAT FLOUR, YEAST AND WATER MAKE A MORE TASTY BREAD THAN THE RECYCLED NEWSPAPER THE SUPERMARKETS BEEN SELLING US
WHAT THEY GET FOR ONE OF THE OLD METAL TRASH CANS NOW A DAYS... THEY MAKE GREAT SOUP POTS WHEN NEW AND GREAT TRASH BURNERS WHEN OLD..........
i FIND RETIREMENT HOUSES AND UNITS SELLING FOR 20,000 YET IM THINKING VEGETABLE CROP YARDS?????????????????????????
DOES THAT MEAN THAT THE AUTO REPAIR DEALERS MIGHT SPEND 10 BUCKS FOR SEALS TO REPAIR PARTS RATHER THAN SELLING REPLACEMENT PARTS FOR 500................WHAT WITH gm BEING VALUED AT 1938 PRICES???????????????
I thought the market would at least tread water through the Spring - Obama's 100 days or at least May - but looks like I was wrong. Looks like wave 4 of 5 down (which means an up wave like wave 2) is over. Wave 5 of 5 down has begun (like Wave 3 which was May - Nov 2008). So down we go, and where we stop, nobody knows. Then an extended wave 5 down. Or an ABC correction followed by another 5 waves down. Exciting times.
Can't trust the banks. Can't trust the insurance companies. Now that we are being hit with a surprise "AIG needs more cash now!" with the government owning most of it but not telling anyone til last minute, it looks like we can't trust the govt (but you suspected that already). Can't trust the car companies. Can't trust the Madoff like funds (and which ones are they?).
When you can't trust anyone, the market P/E goes to 7 to account for the risk of investing/gambling with companies that can't be trusted in a market that can't be trusted run by a govt that can't be trusted. That's previous years worth of earnings. That's after earnings falling have settled a bit. Next couple of years earning won't be settling anytime soon.
There seems to be solid support level at Dow 1000. Or at least Dow 800.
Buy when there is blood in the streets, but after the nuclear war is over.
Keith,
Take a pill. If you've been reading history at all, you'll know that the big market corrections are ~80% down, in a series of four or five 20% down steps spread out over a couple years. The defining characteristic of these steps is that they are far apart enough that the mainstream thinks its 'finally over' or 'contained' briefly between drops. That is, there are sucker's rallies between the drops in a secular bear market. In the vernacular, waves of BOHICA.
It's the relentless repetition and depth of the process that leads to complete capitulation, otherwise folks could see a 50% drop and go, 'its like 1987, I'll just hold on to my stocks and it will all be aok in a few years.'
I'm disappointed by Tim's performance too, but you can't blame the market drops on him. The market is tanking because the penny is dropping for most investors that the big banks are all insolvent! It will keep dropping until that fact is 'priced in' completely. Then we will have another suckers rally until the next wave.
Summary:
1st wave: Fannie/Freddie are insolvent (Aug 08)
2nd wave: The investment banks are insolvent (Sept 08)
3rd wave: The big commercial banks are insolvent (now).
4th wave: TBD
And unlike the other folks here, I do not expect social breakdown (in the US/UK/West Europe) because of a long tradition of social order: e.g. we're sheeple in manner as well as money management. History appears to support this.
People's lifestyles and political inclinations are going through a sea change, but the system creaks onward.
cheers,
Comet Lulin
"...The defining characteristic of these steps is that they are far apart enough that the mainstream thinks its 'finally over' or 'contained' briefly between drops. That is, there are sucker's rallies between the drops..."
Picture what the summer of 1933 must've felt like.
"I thought Obama was competent and intelligent. I still think that.
You mean intelligent like his Harvard pals who leveraged 105% of Harvard's endowment and lost most of it? You do realize that Harvard has been selling bonds just to cover their options account?
Is that what you call "intelligent"? Or intelligent as in the shadow government picked him as puppet and made him president with the help of the paid for corrupt MSM?
See, I didn't get my degree from Harvard or any other Ivy League, but my portfolio has been returning 7% for the last 3 years. I haven't lost a dime during this very predictable and engineered financial stunt.
Stupid me, I don't mechanically bounce my head from teleprompter to teleprompter, telling stories about rainbows and pink unicorns that make school bus drivers in CA, Bukko, and Chris Matthews wet.
Let's get it through it already! The sooner we pass through murky waters, the sooner we can move on with our lives.
All the wealth of the world - poof - gone.
I have to say I disagree. The wealth is the physical things that are produced, and those are all still here. What's actually disappearing is the economic arrangement that produced those things.
It really is very odd, and yes, I'm surprised. I thought Obama was competent and intelligent. I still think that. But man, we're really seeing some grade-A f*cking up right now. And by the time he pulls his head out of his ass, it might be too late. The damage may be catastrophic.
I still think he was the better of the two choices. The only reason republicans are railing against the bailout now is because they can do so safely, knowing that it won't actually prevent the bills from passing. They can then whine about some theoretical world where they got their way, and how much better it would have been. And we'll accept it as true, because people are naturally bad when it comes to probability and logic.
The truth is there are only two ways out of this mess and neither party wants to directly acknowledge them: price discovery or severe currency destruction.
Post a Comment