February 28, 2009

Warren Buffett: Cash is king, and then it won't be. And the US treasury bond bubble of 2008 may one day be seen as "extraordinary"


I couldn't agree more. The safety of cash and t-bills feels great. Shelter in the storm. Safe. And as the markets melt down, anyone is cash, especially US dollars and t-bills, is feeling like a super-genius.

Pretty amazing, eh?


And then.... when you least expect it... KA-POW. And that lovely safe cash ain't gonna be worth the paper it's printed on. That 3% yield will be a rounding error.

This may take months. It may take years. And as you know, timing is indeed everything.

Here's a bit from Buffett's annual letter / mea-culpa. Like Schiff, he got 2008 wrong. But he won't be getting 2009 - 2020 wrong. I'd bet on that.

The investment world has gone from underpricing risk to overpricing it. This change has not been minor; the pendulum has covered an extraordinary arc. A few years ago, it would have seemed unthinkable that yields like today’s could have been obtained on good-grade municipal or corporate bonds even while risk-free governments offered near-zero returns on short-term bonds and no better than a pittance on long-terms.

When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary.

Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long. Holders of these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable –in fact, almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted. They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time.

Approval, though, is not the goal of investing. In fact, approval is often counter-productive because it sedates the brain and makes it less receptive to new facts or a re-examination of conclusions formed earlier.

Beware the investment activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns.

44 comments:

Lost Cause said...

Bubbles go POP!

Michael G said...

Then the million dollar question...where the hell should I put my money. I happen to be one of those smugsters who has been sitting on cash. I have some gold via the GLD but thats it. WHere should I sock my savings. I sold my house during the bubble and make a nice return and have had the money in CDs and money markets. I can't figure out where to stick my money. I have though of buying some high yield energy stocks, but had i invested in them 3-6 months I would have been down 30-40%. If someone could suggest where to stick my money I would love some suggestions (I have considered opening an account with EuroPacific and Schiff) but I just generally dont trust brokerage firms. I look forward to your advice.

Anonymous said...

I'm moving money into the long ETFs, but that is painful these days.
Also a little into TBT that shorts the longer term bonds.
I am a bit scared of a big ETF firm busting and being left with little or nothing. Since the TV cheeleaders are pushing ETFs and talking about the ETF boom, there must be a contrarian signal there that ETFs are about to unwind. You know it happened when they were cheerleading Tech, Houses, and the "Private Equity boom."

Anonymous said...

At the retail, harry-homeowner end of things, as always, "cash is king" only really applies to things that you either don't need, or don't want.

Used to be that less demand = lower prices, now less demand = higher prices, as long as it's something that you simply have to have(heat, vehicle fuel, medical, food, utiliies, etc.)

Where should you put your money?

I find that flipping a coin is as good a way of planning investment stratagy as any.

Anonymous said...

Where to put the money?
I have been pondering the same question for a while.
Maybe energy denpending on the severity of the recession/depression, supply and demand destruction and eventual resurgance of demand. I am sure long term that's the right move. Short to medium I don't know.
Gold, yes I own some gold, silver & platinum 5-10% of my total assets.
I just bought a house in Miami @ 75% discount to bubble prices for $110K. Previous sale was in 3/06 for $430K. Nice place in decent n'hood. Needs very little besides new AC unit. Was that a smart move? I honestly have no idea but I need a reasonbly nice place to live instead of renting a dump for $1400 a month.
Short term treasuries are fine, they are essentially cash. Stay away from long term debt (like more than 1 year) 'cos the future is very uncertain. If inflation kicks back up @ say 20% then your 10 year 3.5% treasuries are roughly worth 25 cents on the dollar. Not the kind of safety you were looking for.
I still think good farm land might be a decent investment. Guns and ammo possibly. Upgrade your house if you plan on living there for a while. I mean insulation, heating and air, garden, well, solar etc.
Good luck all

Anonymous said...

Maybe we'll have hyperinflation and our money will be worthless - maybe our money will only grow by what we manage to stash away. But the savers of this world have always managed to live on less - that's why we're able to save in the first place. I'm not willing to take the chance that maybe my money will grow by 12% if I put it as risk by letting some bozo that doesn't even know how to handle his own money manage it. Why are we assuming that interest rates are always going to be zero?

Anonymous said...

Well, we cashed out everything at the end of 2007. We have no debt. Our two houses are paid up; we live in one, and the other is rented at less than the cost of a flophouse to a church family who has a long track record of honesty and hardwork but which is going through some very hard times. We have some metal, guns, and about a six months supply of food. The plan for this year is to greatly expand the vegetable garden using used tires for raised beds, and to start canning up produce from farmers markets if the raised beds bear poorly, in anticipation of having to feed unprepared friends, neighbors, churchmembers, etc. Also to begin raising locally obtained crawdads in a seasonal creek at the bottom of the garden. Also to put in a well to irrigate the garden, and a cistern tied to the gutters as a backup drinking water supply. (Everyone around here is on septic and city water, but I don't trust the one not to leak or the other to be dependably available.) We are also going to change out one of the two fireplaces with a wood stove insert. The other is already equipped with blowers and is tied into the flues so as to heat the whole house. We will also expand flock of layers to 12 hens and put in bee hives. We are very seriously considering solar, but the technology is not, in my opinion, there. We'd do better living small with wood heat and kerosene lamps. Also, to putting in radiant floors in the downstairs and individual room ceiling fan-heaters in the upstairs preparatory to solar conversion. (It is easier on the wattage to heat individual rooms via these methods than to run the electric furnace.) We are also paying our college kid - who is obese - $100 per lb payable every 3 pounds, to lose weight. This strategy is working surprisingly well and let me tell you, it is a whole lot cheaper than a spa. Everyone else in the family who is overweight is also getting down to normal weight in anticipation of Body Odor's fat tax, (which will be disguised as an incentive for healthy behavior), aka his tobacco tax. Look for it in his health plan, coming soon to your neighborhod. Thinking about buying a hybrid car to replace one of our cars, which is a minivan, but also feel that we might do much better just buying a used cheap fuel-efficient second car. Thinking about buying a third house close to ours if the market drops much further, and putting the second and third houses in our kids names, partly to put our cash out of BO's reach, and partly to provide potential homes to family currently living out of state who may get caught in the economic deathspiral. Thinking about training as an electrician - I am currently an employed, 50 year old, physician, so I can continue to engage in productive work, should BO's health plan force me to commit euthanasia or abortion. In any case, I expect we will lose one third of the public and private hospitals this year, and another third next year, given the medicare/medicaid cuts, after which the survivors will be nationalized by BO. (Doubtless BO will let us work at slave wages in these now third worldesque public hospitals, and will sadly exclaim how tragic it is that physicians were such crummy business managers that they totally crashed the health care system.) The unfortunate new graduates with $250,000 in medical debt will sell themselves to the Indian reservations, correctional systems, and military services in order to be allowed to work off their debt.

Mammoth said...

Yoski nailed it again:
"I still think good farm land might be a decent investment."
-------------------
If you live there as well.

Vegetable garden, fruit trees, nuts, berries, animals...

Tyrone said...

Michael G said:
I look forward to your advice.

Michael, in this economic maelstrom, everyone must make their own decisions. I told a lot of people to exit the stock market near the peak; they didn't. Now they ask me what they should do. I tell them I can't offer advice or tell them what to do, but I tell them what I'm doing.
My plan:
- avoiding the stock market
- Trading SDS; if the market goes up, buy it; market goes down, sell it (it offsets lack of interest or return on cash positions and I'm way up for '09)
- hold PHYSICAL gold and silver (25% of liquid assets)
- Researching commodity ETF/ETNs; haven't pulled the trigger yet
- Guns & ammo
- Food
- Mental preparation: Learn to accept that change is coming and the dollar will be worth much less (if it doesn't, great)

Anonymous said...

The old geezer needs another WWII to look good again, like many other lucky bastards from that era who are now considered "financial geniuses".

Hilarious how Buffett was calling bottoms and announcing to the world that he was "buying America", while dumping J&J, Bancorp, etc. And the sheep followed him just to get slaughtered again.

I can say that I've beaten Warren Buffett in 2008 and 2009, with returns of 7%. And as I said many times here, when ALL these geniuses finally stop calling bottoms and throw the towel, or blow their heads off with a chromed Beretta, I will then start buying again.

But not yet. The commercial real estate lie has to implode, Eastern Europe has to collapse even more, emerging markets will go down in flames, etc. I laugh at the idiots who think that emerging markets will do great...nothing but lies. For instance, delinquent accounts in Brazil are up 13%, 600,000 workers laid off in January alone, Embraer is laying off another 5,000 workers, Petrobras borrowing money from the Chinese to explore fictitious deep-water fields that nobody knows when, how, or how much it will be available. China is the biggest lie of all.

Anonymous said...

I just bought a house in Miami @ 75% discount to bubble prices for $110K.

Sorry but you don't find "nice" homes in Miami, in "nice neighborhoods", right now for $110k. You probably bought in criminal-ridden Homestead or low-life Pompano Beach in Broward, both in the boonies. Dream on!

Anonymous said...

>Beware the investment activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns.

That's a good line. It's even better with the word 'investment' removed.

Anonymous said...

Buffett? Isn't he that guy that supported Obama for president?

So he thinks current policies will lead to a worthless dollar. I'm confused.

Anonymous said...

Yoski said:
"I just bought a house in Miami"

Yoski, I'm not being nosy (I hope), but for better or worse I just moved to Fla, and I'm way-overpaying for rent while I ponder my next move... would you mind telling me in what general area of Miami you purchased?

Thanks, and I understand if you'd rather not say, for whatever reason.

(Keith, if I buy, I'll send you your half of the 6% commission, as I know you always wanted to get in the game. This might be the start of something big! :-))

it is written said...

Warren Buffett, circa 2009.... Irrelevant. U.S. dollar, circa 2014...also irrelevant. United States of America, circa 2019.....anyone, anyone?

Jim said...

I am in a big cash position. More than I would like but what the hell do you do with it? I stagger around in a state of confusion in the land of delusion. Collapse - coming to a country near you...

-SRI

Anonymous said...

I am getting tired of hearing Schiff, Janszen, and Buffet whine and try to defend their lack of success with the shorter term markets. I think there is little doubt about inflation in the long run, even among the short term deflationists like me, but all these guys absolutely screwed the pooch when it came to the power of the deflationary unwind in the near term. The simple fact of the matter is that social mood has greatly shifted and massive leverage excess credit, and asset values have imploded at a magnitude that dwarfs central bankers injections of money and credit in the near term. Eventually, at the bottom when the rate of implosion decreases and there is some light at the end of the tunnel, it will be time to make inflation plays but not just yet. You have to have some capital left at the bottom to be able to continue to play the game. These guys have been investing based on false inflationary assumptions for the near term and they are obviously regretting it. Me thinks they doth protest too much. I'm getting tired of hearing them quoted so much when they have been catagorically wrong in the near term. Only Prechter, Mish, and a few others have it right. Do your own homework. You may just outplay the "experts".

- JT

Joe said...

Cash is King and GOLD is Cash in any currency in the freaking world.

Any questions?

I thought not, if you do not own Gold/Silver you are screwed beyond your wildest expectations.

This paper game is total history!!!

Period. Case Closed and Book it.

Joe M.

Mammoth said...

There are some very clever people who visit & post here on Keith's blog. Are there any takers on the following challenge?:

Find a video, somewhere on the Internet, that shows a kernel of popcorn as it pops.

Now, observe how that kernel of popcorn appears the moment before it pops. Try to correlate this with the market, o.k.?

THAT is when you need to move all your cash out of the US $.

Got it?

-Mammoth

Anonymous said...

Did Mrs Watanabe and Mrs Smith take down the big boys.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/6c1a6eb2-fc8b-11dd-aed8-000077b07658.html

From the early 2000s, the housewives – often referred to collectively as “Mrs Watanabe”, a common Japanese surname – began to hunt for higher returns.

In the UK, there may be many Mrs Smiths with similar preoccupations.

It wasn’t long before the markets began to notice something was stirring. In the first half of 2003, individual Japanese investors bought Y2,700bn of foreign bonds, easily a record.

Professional traders began to study Mrs Watanabe’s every move.

Far more important than the substantial sums being moved out of Japanese savings has been the more intangible wall of money marshalled by the “yen carry trade”.

A practice driven by professional investors, hedge funds and foreign banks, as well as legions of Japanese day traders, the carry trade involved borrowing nearly scot-free in yen and investing the loan in higher-yielding assets abroad.

So long as the yen didn’t suddenly strengthen, the strategy was a sure-fire winner – and far better if it continued downwards.

There were solid returns available just by parking money in safe-as-houses US Treasury bonds.

Much more tantalising returns were within reach by investing in a new crop of exotic products being pushed by inventive bankers: the collateralised debt obligations, structured products and other quasi-bonds that hoodwinked investors the world over.

Anonymous said...

yoski said...
I just bought a house in Miami @ 75% discount to bubble prices for $110K. Previous sale was in 3/06 for $430K. Nice place in decent n'hood. Needs very little besides new AC unit. Was that a smart move?

Bwa Ha hah ahahahahahahaha.

Sucker. Another victim of Moziloitis.

Get Professional Help soon.

ps:
"Miami + Nice place in decent n'hood" doesn't go together in the same sentence.

Mark in San Diego said...

I hate to say it, but I will probably buy a house this year, even if it goes down in price. . . why? Because at least I can live in it, and if it goes down in value, then another house I might want will be cheaper too. . .other than that - staying in short term treasuries, CD's (short term) and insured bank accounts - or money under the matress. . .my Swiss Franc play didn't turn out all that well, but at least I bought most at about 90 cents on the dollar, so I am only down 5 cents. . .I wish my stock portfolio had performed so well!!

Anonymous said...

Suzi Orman said

If you are a buyer do not make an offer unless it is SO GOOD repeat SO GOOD that you can not wait to pass it up.

Time is on your side.

http://www.youtube.com
/watch?v=A5nsCkPetw4

2326# Mora Glen Dr
Los Altos, CA 94024
Sold $117,000 (01/30/2009)
BEDS 4 BATHS 2 SQFT 3,412

122# Gronwall Ln
Los Altos, CA 94024
Sold $139,000 (09/10/2008)
BEDS 4 BATHS 3.5 SQFT 2,672

165# Alexander Way
Los Altos, CA 94024
Sold $73,000 (06/30/2008)
BEDS 4 BATHS 2 SQFT 2,118

129# Portland Ave
Los Altos, CA 94024
Sold $90,000 (05/02/2008)
BEDS 3 BATHS 1 SQFT 1,540

68# Riverside Dr
Los Altos, CA 94024
Sold $144,000 (04/01/2008)
BEDS 3 BATHS 2 SQFT 1,720

Anonymous said...

How about some music to cheer us up!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=712kRqri2No

Anonymous said...

Buffet is trying to tell his shareholders that the market - and his stock - is down because people have gone to cash. That's true. He's also using this opportunity (he knows his shareholder letter will go public) to tell the cash-is-king folks (us) to start buying stocks again before it's too late. Hmmm...he's starting to sounds like a realtwhore! Better buy now or you'll be priced out forever! They ain't making stocks anymore! Stocks only go up!

Warren; it's OK. Everyone got creamed. We don't fault you for it happening to you to.

Anonymous said...

"And then.... when you least expect it... KA-POW... as you know, timing is indeed everything."

That reminds me...

Hopefully, the PTB hasn't decided the conditions are ripe for another 9/11...

Anonymous said...

Good artcl


http://seekingalpha.com/article/115284-how-the-treasury-bubble-will-burst-and-why

Jeff said...

Where to put your money? FOOD

You can't eat gold.

Anonymous said...

I hope the only safe money and safe profession over the next 28 years is not "peasant farmer"..........got another 100 sweet orange seeds planted in coffee grounds today.............now i gotta figure out how to survive 10 years into the die off

Anonymous said...

prices like that in Los Altos maKE ME THINK OF BUYING AND NOT CARING IF THEY FELL ANOTHER 50 PERCENT AS THAT WOULD USUALY MEAN LESS PROPERTY TAXES AND BUY ME PLANTING TIME FOR THE GOOD OF THE COMMUNITY, NOT THE FLIPPER OR RENT OUT RAPISTS

Anonymous said...

prices like that in Los Altos maKE ME THINK OF BUYING AND NOT CARING IF THEY FELL ANOTHER 50 PERCENT AS THAT WOULD USUALY MEAN LESS PROPERTY TAXES AND BUY ME PLANTING TIME FOR THE GOOD OF THE COMMUNITY, NOT THE FLIPPER OR "RENT OUT" RAPISTS

Anonymous said...

Keith, can't you see Uncle Warren's a has been. He's old school, but new school is now in session.

Anonymous said...

This country pumpkin from Obama --oh sorry Omaha loves to advice us, the people.... oh sorry the government.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UefpE70Yxlg&feature=related

Mitesh Damania said...

They're up there in their ivory towers. It appears that these guys have genuine balls when they make these investment decision whence you're sitting there petrified of the risks involved and won't pull the trigger. Turns out it's foolishness rather than machismo.

Anonymous said...

"...cashed out...no debt...two houses are paid up... metal, guns, and about a six months supply of food... vegetable garden...canning up produce...crawdads...well to irrigate the garden...12 hens...bee hives..."

Loved reading about all that; glad for you and your family. But then

"...Body Odor's fat tax...his tobacco tax...put our cash out of BO's reach...should BO's health plan force me to commit euthanasia or abortion... survivors will be nationalized by BO. (Doubtless BO will let us work at slave wages..."

I don't understand how a person who quips "physicians were such crummy business that they totally crashed the health care system" could believe that our new President possesses similar culpability.

Much larger, more malign forces are at play here, Doctor.

Tyrone said...

To the poster of the Los Altos houses and sell prices, I call bullshit. Searched a few of them and see no sales on those streets anywhere near those prices. Show the proof and I'll believe it.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
Suzi Orman said

If you are a buyer do not make an offer unless it is SO GOOD repeat SO GOOD that you can not wait to pass it up."

Your Los Altos listings are missing a digit and the comma is in the wrong place.

Anything under a million is not livable or a tear down. BTW, haven't seen anything under 1.5m listed recently.

Try to Get Real. Who are you anyway, asshat Nick, the clueless leach?

*Los Altos Resident 50 years.

Lost Cause said...

Sorry, but Buffet is WRONG. (Anybody can look at his stock, and see how WRONG he is.) Listen to Bill Gross. As much money as the government spends, it is not sufficient to counteract deflationary pressure. There is not going to be inflation. It is not possible to stop the tsunami, even though they are wasting billions trying. The people who own the debt will make sure of that. Once Obama throws enough bones to keep people off of his back, he will work on restructuring global capitalism. This will take years. The United States will do very well, but it will not be possible to conduct unilateral warfare etc. This is some very serious stuff.

As far as the government behaving as if it were a normal business or fair market, like commodities -- use caution. They can change the laws at any time. Do not listne to Warren Buffet.

Anonymous said...

Actually, while I think he is an arrogant fool, myself, I don't think ol' Body Odor is particularly evil. But it is not physicians who have crashed the health care system. It is the US government, with its requirement that hospitals see every patient regardless of ability or willingness to pay, and now, thanks to Body Odor, that they provide 30 days of post hospital care at no additional charge (which actually means that they must see them for up to 2 years depending on state patient abandoment statutes), that has finally pushed the health care past the tipping point. In addition, BO has signed off on a medicaid/medicare bill embedded in the porkulus bill, which will bankrupt poor urban and all rural hospitals, who already do not meet their costs due to either impoverished/tiny population draws. These hospitals depend on revenues from the States, 46/50 of which are toying with bankruptcy. Right now, if you have a kid who is seriously ill in most of the US, that child will be shipped up to 5 hours away by medicopter. The local pediatric wards and specialist pediatricians - numerous when I was a student - went extinct a long time ago, because any kid who is seriously ill is automatically eligible for Medicaid, and Medicaid pays about 70% of actual costs of patient care. The current porkulus package signed into law by Body Odor drops Medicare reimbursement, (currently almost covering actual costs), to Medicaid levels. This will kill eldercare. All physicians who have any hope of staying solvent will say - as they did with kids some years ago - Gee, I'm just too dumb to handle old people! You will need to send Granny to State University Hospital in State Capital City. Body Odor will, of course step in by federalizing the state patient abandonment acts to say "every physician who sees any patient at all must as a condition of holding a DEA license be able to handle any problem any patient may have, and no you can't discriminate by age even if you happen to be a pediatric dermatologist, and you are facing some 90 year old alcoholic in hepatic coma." But in the absence of malpractice reform, this will simply cause the physicians to mail in their licenses. (Myself, I think I'd enjoy being an electrician!) In addition, there is absolutely NO way that Medicare can meet its current scheduled obligations, even if there were no other fiscal crisis. It simply isn't possible for every 80 year old to be given hip replacements etc. There will be rationing. This will be done by dramatically decreasing access to care, and by Body Odor's limitation of the physician conscience clause (which he has already done both with abortion, and with "end of life issues.") Not bad for someone who has been working less than 2 months! In addition, Body Odor's new dictum that if a patient is readmitted within a month then that is ipso facto evidence of poor care, will mean that hospitals faced with an 80 year old frequent flyer will eliminate their ICU's and ship 'em all to University Hospital until it too, folds. (This scenario actually is already happening in Japan.) These guys will die. I have numerous patients who are in and out of the hospital for tuneups every 2-3 weeks but still do not want "hospice care". Possibly you can say, that an 80 year old should be ready to hang it up, but what about your 56 yo frequent flyer with HIV? Or your 36 yo frequent flyer with cardiomyopathy or your 13 year old with intractable seizures? These guys will die also.

Crawdad Doc

Anonymous said...

What price range will luxury home be in California this time next year once the option Arm, Alt-A, and NINJA loans reset.

http://news.prnewswire.com
/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&
STORY=/www/story/02-24-2009
/0004977484&EDATE=

Luxury home prices in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco fell again in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to a year ago, according to the First Republic Prestige Home Index(TM) by First Republic Bank, a leading provider of private banking, private business banking and wealth management services.

Anonymous said...

It seems luxury home owners are still in a state of Anxiety or Denial,

Upper middle class home owners are still in a state of Denial or Fear,

Middle class home owners are still in a state of Fear and Desperation,

Lower middle class home owners are still in a state of Desperation and Panic, and

The poor home owners are still in a state of Panic and Capitulation.

After the Option Arm, Alt-A, and NINJA loans reset will all home owners be in a state of Despondency and Depression.

Anonymous said...

Those lists of homes sold in Los Altos and Milpitas are BS. Why don't you give the correct house numbers so we can find real prices, troll?

Yeah, I didn't think so.

Anonymous said...

Those lists of homes sold in Los Altos and Milpitas are BS. Why don't you give the correct house numbers so we can find real prices, troll?

Yeah, I didn't think so.

It is call surfing.

Start with www.google.com

choose Web then copy and paste the address and change # with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9

satan said...

I am starting to buy.

Buy gold online - quickly, safely and at low prices