March 10, 2009

What will America be like five years from now? Will this whole economic collapse be like a forgotten bad dream? Or will we still be in one?



Do people soon come out of their shelters and head right back to Best Buy for more cheap crap they don't need from China?

Or... does this tailspin continue, home prices fall 80%, and the world doesn't recover in your lifetime?

So, what do you think America and the world will look like five years from now?




53 comments:

Ahmed said...

in 5 years all of Europe farm land owned by Asians, Africans and Americans, providing produce and contributing to humanity for the first time in 3000 years.

Stu said...

Great question and one that you could ponder on for quite sometime and have your answer be different depending on how and where you start your answer from.

I do not see a mad rush back to the store for chinese goods. As a result China is in very deep shit. They may have to suspend communism for a bit and allow albeit peaceful demonstrations or they could have some serious uprisings this time around.

America is too fat and lazy to go down that road, but they will make a peep or two. The good news is a few whackos will get the Government listening in a hurry so we all will end up benefitting in the end.

Jobs is what scares me and not short term bullshit Fraudbama is advocating. Cartainly not Government jobs which Fraudbama is also advocating. I mean manufacturing jobs, sustainable jobs, good paying jobs. They have disappeared in a rather large way and many are not coming back from the industries of which they were lost from. We need more of those and not less so where do they come from? I just don't know personally. Maybe a new invention of some sort??

Once rents and sell prices converge the bottom is reached and the drop stops. I don't think that number is 80%, but maybe in some locations it will be. I see nationally a number closer to 40%-50% and maybe approaching 60% for a very short span but that is it. Off ocurse overall prices won't go up more than 1%-3% for probably 20 years or so realistically. Very flat and historical appreciation for housing is coming back.

The UK is going down big time and France and Germany will too. Unions are crippling these countries and in a downturn where flexability is required they are going to get totally wrecked.
other places in the world are also hurting and many will sustain like we do I believe.

A huge downturn lasting 7-10 years with a flat and slow rise back up unless something dramatic happens that we don't know exist yet today. Maybe 5-7 with a medium rise back, but nothing spectacular for the foreseeable future IMO.

We will survive but we will also be a shell of out former selfs. Be prepared for how you live today to be the best living standard you can possibly expect for at least the next decade... the BEST POSSIBLE but more than likely it will be what you are striving for in a couple of years.

Peace

Anonymous said...

America will endure. America will return to her status of the world's greatest nation. Just as surely as the sun rises on the East, America shall rise again. Today, the rest of the world is looking for American leadership to come out of the darkness. And this great shining city and beacon of hope will provide it.

We are the greatest nation in the entire world. We have the greatest government and economic system in the world.

Anonymous said...

I want to be like spiderman... :o)

Anonymous said...

http://greatmenoffaith.blogspot.com/2009/02/remeber-jesus-is-coming-back-soon.html

Anonymous said...

Recover? We have been sick for so long and finally they ran out mathematical shinanigans to cover our over-consuming-underproducing asses. The fever is about to break and we will "get real". A better world is comming.

DP

derivs said...

Funny, I'm in Rio, things look just fine here. They learned plenty with their days of 3,000% inflation.

yoski said...

Once people have to drag their video game console or PC to the pawn shop they'll have a lot more time on their hands. Maybe some of them will start paying attention.

hp fan said...

Hong Kong will replace New York as the global financial center and the Chinese Yuan will be the dominant reserve currency five years from now.

America will look like Argentina in the 1990s with unemployment peaking above 20%.

Got Gold?
Got Guns?
Got Farmland?

Rob said...

I would like to think we will have learned from this as a country. I would like to think that, but I don't. As soon as this crisis shows signs of ebbing, the vast majority of Americans will head back to Best Buy...and the banks will gladly give them the money to do so. And the cycle will continue.

Anonymous said...

We cannot yet face nor even acknowledge what is coming.

Something wicked.

The bright side is we have a worthy scapegoat who is playing the part rather well.

vanilla ice said...

In 2014 Americans are humbled by their stupidity of the last 30 years. Insolvency turns finance on its head. It will consume maybe 3% of our GDP instead of 20% of now.
We will start to think about our purchases and shop around and start to do more ourselves.

As a nation we consume less and invest more to make up for the last 30 years of starving every asset of capital. Roads, university systems, IT infrastructure will finally get the capital it needs.

At this time we experience the first effects of declining oil output and inflation induced by 30 years of Fed stupidity. Oil prices skyrocket to $200 a barrel. People start walking and biking more. People start demanding more pleasant cities, with a higher quality of life, with much less of an emphasis on producing and consuming insanity. Our planet will be better off.

Anonymous said...

that is the story of the whole crap shoot

Afterthought said...

I don't know if it will happen, but it is the oligopolists' game plan.

BD said...

Doesnt matter, I wont be there. Im out.

Anonymous said...

I don't know about you, but am getting scared of all the mad people that are shooting their fellow citizens just because they lost their job and savings....

Time to get the gun and locks ready.

Anonymous said...

Uncle Benny stop beating around the bush and call it what it is - YEN CARRY TRADE

http://www.reuters.com/
article/businessNews
/idUSTRE52959I20090310

Bernanke: "saving glut" a root cause of crisis

Four years ago to the day, Ben Bernanke famously identified a global "saving glut" as the cause of a mammoth U.S. current account deficit that was fueling a red-hot housing market, but played down the risks.

"The global imbalances were the joint responsibility of the United States and our trading partners, and although the topic was a perennial one at international conferences, we collectively did not do enough to reduce those imbalances," the Fed chief told the Council on Foreign Relations.

"However, the responsibility to use the resulting capital inflows effectively fell primarily on the receiving countries, particularly the United States," he said.

Anonymous said...

well bad times is a comin'.

We's F'ed.

But just like the last depression we'll recover and our grandchildren will repeat the same damn mistakes.

Remember: THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT!

blah

Anonymous said...

THE BIG BANG!

rin tin tin said...

Five years is forever...

(Fast forward to 2014)

The U.S.A (Unified Secessionist Areas) are enduring a prolonged period of strife and mayhem.

The Coalition of the Unwilling, an underground resistance force, has distributed coded flyers around the entire Northwest Regional Zone alerting its members to a meeting in the produce section of a bombed-out Costco in Walla Walla.

Details of the purpose of the meeting are sketchy, but rumors are circulating that a new agreement between the Duty-Free Bartering Alliance and the Farmer's Market Militia may be forthcoming.

The resounding defeat of the heavily-armed Blackwater Credit Collateral Repossession & Collection Corps on the Idaho/Utah border has inspired a renewed urgency to establish a Shopper's Bill of Rights...

Ross said...

A lot less annoying, conspicuously consuming jerk-offs and wannabe princesses. That's all I'm willing to commit to.

I picture a shrunken media, stock market, housing market, luxury item market and auto industry.

As long as the White House doesn't stand in the way, I picture people with a lot more booze, guns, small businesses and bunkers.

Anonymous said...

This question is unanswerable. There are too many unpredictable variables. Some people, of course, say it's moot because according to legend the world is destined to end on Dec. 21, 2012. So party on.

Mitesh Damania said...

The guys hould do Denny's commercials hahaha.

Anonymous said...

Can you name any number of people we can put in jail, take all their money and by that solve the crisis? What will insure a bigger crisis will not show up down the road? History tells us humanity doesn’t do good job protecting itself.

The purpose of the crisis is to open our eyes and recognize our bad nature so we can fix it. If we cannot recognize our bad nature we cannot fix it. If we will not fix it, the crisis will intensify.

Ask yourself what was destroyed in this crisis? We all know that paper money is not real. There is only one thing that was lost – Trust. Trust was accumulated since WWII and now we have a big hole in this trust bag.

The future of America and the world depends on how much good faith can demonstrate.

Can Americans work hard for the benefit of their country and the rest of the world? Can American fight corruption? So far it seems they can’t.

We cannot overcome the question – what’s in it for me?

Anonymous said...

Idiocracy.

monkey Madness said...

By the first anniversary of 9/11 we had to have TV specials to remind us that it had happened. If the past is any indicator of future performance, it is back to the mall with all possible haste ASAP.

This will all be remembered as you would a below average meal -- after a few months it is a bit fuzzy with an inexplicable negative impression that fades into oblivion.

Did you catch Dancing With the Stars? Or Idol? Or Survivor? Or...

soft landing said...

Don't ever forget that it is never different this time. It's not a new paradigm, and you will not be priced out forever.

If you can keep your job or if you have significant savings the coming depression will not be THAT bad.

In 2014 we will have accepted unemployment close to 20%, spiraling deflation and the reality that a certain Asian country is not our friend. If we are lucky we will anchor one side of the bipolar world political scene.

Wind Farmer said...

Tent cities

Flea markets

Chickens in every backyard

Gardens in every backyard, front yard and windowsill

Barter (if you have a skill)

Prostitutes (skilled and unskilled)

Drug dealers

Bicycles, mopeds, scooters...then
horses, mules, burros

Neighborhood watches (armed to the teeth)

Vacant box stores become shelters a la the Superdome in New Orleans

You know, I really think it will be different this time...As in, it will never be the same, we will skip back to something like the 1800's.

List: food, tools, farm, seeds, pedal sewing machine, ice box, mules, medical supplies, canning supplies, hand pump/well, firearms, Rhodesian Ridgeback (great dogs), friends and family, fishing poles, boat, lamp oil, candles, soap, detergent, books, gold, silver...

As Jim Kunstler is fond of saying, "We are going to have make different arrangements."

Markus Arelius said...

Infation will rage due to inept Fed policy over last 15 years. Food and clean water become the most important components in American lives. There is a massive "generation war" between the young born after 2000 and everyone else. Self reliance and rugged individualism are reborn and restored. Return of hanguns and holsters in public, men wearing hats, female prudishness and a rejuvenated Christian movement preaching fire and brimstone to America's incensed youth. The elderly are hated and there are horrific stories of gang and mob violence.
Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and Alaska become favorite tourist destinations. Florida becomes a flood plane. Lastly Americas last military interventions will be border excursions into Mexico to curb violence and prevent increasingly more desperate and violent illegal immigration.

Anonymous said...

More fat, dumb obese imbeciles like the one shown here in the post sucking the system dry, still with their mouths open only to utter: Duh, where's ma ribs masser?

Mark in San Diego said...

My best guess after nearly 30 years in the stock market is that we will "muddle through" and go back to "semi-normal" in a few years. . .if we get our heads out of the online world, and walk around the real world, 90% of people are still doing their jobs, busses and trains and planes are still running, and gas stations are still selling gas, etc.

Most real change comes slowly and without people even being that much aware - cutbacks in purchases will become the norm, salaries will not keep up with inflation, and 10 years from now, 90% of the population will have a "lower" standard of living. . . perhaps not a bad thing, if good choices are made - less junk, more necessities.

Anonymous said...

Matt Lauer on NBC just now: "...we're not suggesting that people take money out of the banks and put it in home safes..."

At the conclusion of a segment FEATURING home safes. ;^D

Anonymous said...

This is an example of the current shame of the real estate market...Enjoy!!

http://www.citypaper.com/news/story.asp?id=17674&ref=patrick.net

Rasbary

Joe said...

I like to look at things from a historical viewpoint. After the 1st great depression it affected people's life forever. It took several generations before Wall Street was trusted again.

Same thing this time too.

Joe M.

Anonymous said...

Suckers rally Tues in preparation for the Big Fall.

Dow 4,000 by April 1.

"Take it to the Bank"
-phrase by former failed, disgraced and shamed President
George W. Bushco
Gukilty Idiot-in-Chief

Arrest Bushco and Cheneyburton today:
Charge with Murder, high crimes and treason.
Try
Convict
Sentence
Execute, publicly.

Who know, Maybe Ange and Madoff will be Ready about then too?

Hurry this all takes time. We have no time to waste on this.

PUNISH THE GUILTY especially BUSHCO

Anonymous said...

The United States government will borrow money until it is broke. Without a military, the United States is a broke bannana republic with a mulatto representative already. The United State is now a place of a thrid world invasion. You can not look at the TV and find good looking Greek, Italian, German, French, Spanish, Russian in the majority, but non European half breed thrid world mutts are the rule. European culture, technology, and people made the USA, now that is changing to the thrid world it will ultimately be its citizens, a broke, third world, mongrel nation.

Anonymous said...

I just got my merchant sales tax notice. 9.25% California budget crisis tax. Government has successfuly enlarged itself while punishing consumption.

hunker down slaves

Guberville Smack said...

What? Did I miss something? Haven't we already made the decision we will print our way out of this and pass the bill to future generations?
We may go to 30% of population at part time employment, but the sheeple won't care or notice.
Just like nobody noticed the 50's disappeared when there was only one bread winner in the house.

Anonymous said...

.




OBAMY GOT ME A CHECK FOR VIDEO GAME!




.

Anonymous said...

Buh buh buh your heroes Jon Stewart and Keith Olbermann said that BO and Pelosi are going to make everything tip-top in America. What happened?

Anonymous said...

The Global ELite (Washington DC, Et Al) is the dictatorship, and the American People are the resistance fighters.

We have somehow been able to keep our computers, phones and internet in an underground manner (dont ask me to explain how, but we did).

We are trying to reinvent the beginning of the 1950's with Beaver Cleaver as our President (of the resistance). It is now 1950, and as Teddy Roosevelt Jr said on Utah Beach, "OK we'll start the war from here then".

Anonymous said...

stable, modest recovery, low double digit unemployment (10-12%), stock market about where it is now after having gone down to 3,000. Hybrid and electric cars slowly replacing current fleet. Americans saving money, still paying down debt after a major inflationary period.

Anonymous said...

In 2014....

1. Americans will be enjoying Single Payer Universal Coverage health care, and wondering why they didn't do it 50 years earlier.

2. The Republican Party will be just an unpleasant memory.

3. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney will be serving hard time for their War Crimes.

4. Obama will be just settling into his second term.

Anonymous said...

I have a hope that the very worst possible scenario of global collapse has been averted and that we are in for a few years of pain. OK - maybe 5 years is too premature to be out of it - but even if 20-30% of us have to stand in bread lines - Americans will still have food and shelter and maybe potentially affordable healthcare. At any rate, housing should be more affordable and executive comp should be reined in. By 10 years I hope we this will all be a distant memory but that we will have all learned the lesson that you have to work for your money and save before you buy things, that most people shouldn't trust Wall Street, that we shouldn't penalize savers and that you have to help your fellow wo/man because any one of us is just one catastrophe away from being one of those 20-30%. You know if there really is a messiah - now would be a pretty good time to come or come back depending on your beliefs.

Anonymous said...

AP -- President Barack Obama signed a $410 billion spending package Wednesday that includes billions in earmarks like those he promised to curb in last year's campaign. He insisted the bill must signal an "end to the old way of doing business." The massive measure supporting federal agencies through the fall contains nearly 8,000 pet projects, earmarked by sponsors though denounced by critics.

Running for president, Obama denounced the many pet projects as wasteful and open to abuse - and vowed reform.


And yet, the low-IQ cultists act like nothing happened, like there's no pork in the bill, like it's totally ok for the Messiah to go against his campaign promises. Uh-oh, also never mind that your same Messiah hired a Raytheon lobbyist to run his Pentagon, once again going against his campaign promises.

Is that the change you idiots were raging about? I bet Jon Stewart and Olbermann won't touch that, right? Funny how that works. Don't you feel stupid? You should.

And Keith still tries to protect and troll for this guy. It's all Pelosi's fault, she made him sign, right Keith?

Prisoner No. 6 said...

Stu -

>We need more of those and not less so where do they come from? I just don't know personally. Maybe a new invention of some sort??<

Hmm. You're quite down on "Fraudbama" but you seem to have a problem with following some of your logic to its conclusion.

Where do new inventions and industry come from? Do you go to the big Crystal Cathedral and drop to your knees and the Magic Sky Fairy comes down and drops the processing specs for a 25nm chip in your lap? If he does, please provide the address and time of the services, so I can get in on this.

No, the problem is that new inventions and industry comes from the same place it always has: science and laboratories.

The last eight years, we have had to endure an administration that was so hostile to science and scientists, basing their decision-making instead on the "Higher Father", that an audience of scientists gave "Fraudbama" a standing ovation. Did they do that because these hard-headed men of reason were somehow magically swayed by demon-scented words?

Perhaps in your kooky cartoon world, but back here in the really real world, we know what the underlying causes for this crisis are.

They are the willful blindness on the part of a large part of the population; the utter denial of reality until it can be denied no longer (and perhaps even a bit past then, as you are proving here on this board).

The good jobs of the future will come from the investments in the infrastructure that Republicans are deriding as "pork," preferring that the money go to the same places it has been going for the past 30 years - into the wallets of the already ultra-wealthy.

The good jobs of the future will come out of the labs located in places like Silicon Valley - located in the heart of liberal California.

Or are you unaware of the irony that you are using communication apparatuses that were designed by long-haired dope-sucking hippies to spout your Dominionist rhetoric?

Apparently so.

JAWS said...

We'll be where we were in '94 during that whole mess. Gov't and MSM will want us to believe we're pulling out of this but it'll be short-lived and false. It'll just keep stretching out with no end in sight.

No reason to graduate college, may as well go for the PHD. Noplace to work anyway.

College of Phoenix will pump ads to the underemployed who believe they can dig themselves out of crap jobs with a degree.

Oh God, "it's all been done before." Sounds like an 80's one-hit-wonder.

too much rope said...

I'm not sure what my bigger fear is: that it all comes crashing down, or that it bounces back and I have to continue to raise my children to not act like all the assholes they have to see out in public every day.

Anonymous said...

i was one of the Jokers babbling about the die off and it got one of mine, ........................not so funny now

Neo said...

We are headed towards sustainable living, a symbiotic relationship with the biosphere. This will take more than five years, and we will go kicking and screaming, because it is not glamorous. We'll be giving up certain things (wasteful luxuries), and gaining other things (better health).
Obama has done an amazing job so far, and the good effects of his righting the course of our ship of state will begin to manifests by his second term. Perhaps I'm just paying more attention, but this is turning out to be one of the most prolific first 100 days of any Presidency I can recall.

Anonymous said...

CNN -- It was less than a mile away from Richard Blow's home that police said he shot a real estate worker Wednesday afternoon in Rock Hill.

The shooting was at the Coldwell Banker United, a realty firm on Ebeneezer Road.

Police said the argument was all over deposit money Blow wanted back from an investment property.

Anonymous said...

Dear Derivs, could you write more and explain what was learned and how it shows up in behavior. Seriously.
Might be something for us to emulate.

grandma pkk

les said...

we will all have good paying govt jobs.