April 28, 2009

Funny when charts on completely unrelated matters start looking the same


41 comments:

Anonymous said...

Did you see the Irvine housing blog post with the house that was refid with a 2.7 million dollar option arm?

Anonymous said...

(Note: This is a repost of something I wrote on a little-read thread here last month):

Regular, long-time HP’er / S&A’er posting as an anon.
I am ill today. Really f*cking sick, and I should be at home and in bed - where I spent the past 3 days – instead of here at work. There is a particularly nasty ‘bug’ going around here right now, and a lot of prople are sick.

I called in sick yesterday, and was then phoned by my employer 4 times, with a lot of pressure being put on me to come in and work on a project. So today I came to work, although I feel terrible. My head hurts, I feel weak & dizzy, I am constantly coughing and blowing my nose, and this morning when I spit in the sink there was blood in it.

This is a corporation who thinks nothing about laying off people who have worked here for 30 years, whose CEO’s gave themselves 15% percent raises a year ago, and then announced none of us people doing the real work will get a raise this year.

I am pissed, and will cough in the face of any manager who sticks his snout into my cubicle today. Furthermore, I am going to take the germ-ridden kleenix - which I have been blowing my nose into – and wipe it on every single doorknob in this building as well as on the coffee pot handles. Let’s see how well this place functions when half its staff is out sick.

Certainly I am not the only person with this sour attitude. Although the ‘dreaded Bird Flu’ has not yet struck, just imagine if and when it does hit. Thanks to all the heartless employers who have no qualms about forcing their employees to come to work when they are sick – and an army of pissed-off employees – this epidemic will spread like wildfire through the population and wipe out millions.

But at least the corporate CEO’s will be insulated from the repurcussions of the havoc which they have brought upon the population…

consultant said...

After a thorough review of the HousingPanic and S&A blogs, the vast majority of the looney and whack job posts are made by "Anonymous".

LetsCleanUp said...

We still have a loooong way to go.
The only problem with nationwide charts is that some areas are much worse than others.
In some spots we need bulldozers, now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-ok5bxWu4M

Thomas Jefferson said...

WHO is already at Condition 4, by the way.

Devestment said...

I deal antiques and coins.
Last week on a Ca. road trip I met many people that were under the impression they could sell their homes and get out from under their mortgage. I met a few others that were renting rooms to strangers so they could cover expense.

More people than usual tried to sell me counterfeit silver and gold coins, historic doccuments, and jewelry. (Watch out for people trying to borrow money while using these items as collateral). The general feeling was one of dispair, folks dont seem so in love with assets that dont carry any equity or security. I think this housing bust will throw a real one two punch. We are apperantly in the stage of extracting the "i'm so smart" sideline money.

There are thousands of unfinished housing units under construction all over the country. Supply has exceeded demand to the tenth power. Soon we will see the real bottom. Anyone else get a call from their bank to move funds into "special accounts"? I'm staying in worthless treasuries while living in Moms basement.

casey said...

Hey housing doom has a good video up today w/ banks bulldozing homes they cant sell in s. california.Evidently code enforcement was on their ass.

Anonymous said...

And proving the uselessness of such charts, explain how we can be 3 steps away from "First Human Case in N.A" when we have dozens of deaths in N.A. already???

Because NA couldn't be the damn starting point or anything, no their chart can't handle that case.

Anonymous said...

and they continue to bleed my savings with inflations in prices of everything but house price inflation which is not counted as inflation so they can set up this scam of the interest rates and tge devaluation of savings and the insult of its worth which was the value of my time..all for bogus house prices and hundred trillions of dollars of bogus derivitives that were commission producers

Anonymous said...

Oooobaaamy!

Gimme Cheese.

Anonymous said...

Consultant,

By what yardstick do you determine what is "Loony" and what is "normal?"

Wasn't there a time when many considered HousingPanic a 'loony-bin?'

The truth is the truth, bud.

Guberville Smack said...

Aren't 50% of the Opt A's in California?
And how many people are walking away from the Opt A's even before the reset is due because rents are cheaper even BEFORE the resets?
And how many Opt A's will max. out before the reset date? They can either go 4 or 5 years, or until they hit 120% (or so) of the original loan.
So how much does that chart really say? Hmmm.

will shill for coin said...

For any of you out there too stupid to have noticed...

We're living Atlas Shrugged.

JaneZ said...

will shill for coin said...

For any of you out there too stupid to have noticed...

We're living Atlas Shrugged.
------------------------------------

The ending is going to be different. This sequel leaves us with no where to run, hide and wait it out.

There is absolutely nowhere to go and start over while they destroy themselves and us.

JaneZ said...

Remember when your neighbor took the wife and kids to Europe a few years ago, bought a new SUV and installed granite countertops with a home equity line of credit?

------------------------

Bloomberg today:

Obama’s overall plan to reduce foreclosures by modifying mortgages targets as many as 4 million homeowners. As many as half of the participants in the mortgage-modification program may be eligible for the second-lien assistance, the administration officials said.

http://tinyurl.com/c7odq9

Honk if I am paying your mortgage!

Amtex said...

People who don't have to sell their houses are still in denial. A house went up for sale in our neighborhood this week for $675,000. It was purchased in late 2004 for a bubbly price of $540,000.

It won't sell of course, but many just entering the market are still living in the bubble. This housing price unwinding will lurch downward for 3-4 more years and then stay flat for at least a decade.

Anonymous said...

I predict this flu bug is going to have a major impact on commerce.

Very soon we will see schools, amusement parks, theatres, malls and many public places closed where there is a concentration of cases (like California, New York and Texas to start).

These bugs travel fast and light and can't be stopped unless a 50%-60% decreae in public contact is ordered.

This is not good news for any kind of economic recovery to happen.

I suggest shorting all stocks except certain drug stocks that carry to anitvirul.

Protect your investment don't buy the green shoots it ain't happeing.

Nimesh said...

This is why I won't buy a house until 2012 to 2014. This real estate crash has a lot more innings left in the game folks. A lot more. I think we are still in the top of the third inning. Plus you add baby boomers getting old and the average boomer has a pittance in savings but their largest asset is their home. Hopefully they paid it off, then they can liquidate it. Also, the Treasury Bond bubble can burst and shoot interest rates way high.

Sashers, there is a lot working for us. No matter what the government tries to do, this bubble will continue to deflate.

hp fan said...

We're living Atlas Shrugged.The only thing missing is a Project X Weapon.

Hurricane-Killing, Space-Based Power PlantSaw that contraption on Drudge last week and thought stealth Star Wars / Project X weapon right away.

The Enviro-Wackos could shoot the next hurricane and miss, "accidentally" vaporizing Houston.

Of course, the cynics out there might think it was payback for the Neocon attacks on New York.

Anonymous said...

And CRAMER (your fave) calls the housing bottom in 64 days...

Please.... He is gonna have some 'splainin' to do when SH*T HITS THE FAN AGAIN REAL SOON!

Consumer Confidence is only up because the stock market is up and that will soon face reality.

thomas jefferson said...

"For any of you out there too stupid to have noticed...

We're living Atlas Shrugged.

April 28, 2009 6:58 PM"

Get a clue, retard.

Anonymous said...

I got my money in a zombie bank."...they're too big to fail(they're too big for jail!)..."

Anonymous said...

I couldn't find an appropriate thread to put this on and I don't know if it is posted elsewhere, but when I saw that the New York Times was quoting Greg Swann and then when I saw his quote at the close of the stoy I just had to post it on Soot and Ashes

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/business/economy/29econ.html?_r=1&ref=patrick.net


Greg Swann, a Phoenix real estate agent, took a moment to marvel at the news. “What happened here will some day be a new chapter in ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,’ ” the classic survey of investing mania, he said. “We were living during the boom like there was no tomorrow. And guess what? Now it’s tomorrow.”




Mr. Swan, the realty agent, said inventories of lower-priced homes were already dwindling in Phoenix as investors snapped up bank-owned properties at bargain prices.

“I’ve got Canadians coming here who are putting together investment pools of millions of dollars to buy houses by the hundreds,” he said. “They’re going to rent them out to all the people who were foreclosed and need a place to live. This is going to be a good year for us.”

50% Haircut said...

Phoenix leads nation in home price declines in February

Phoenix Business Journal

Phoenix home prices fell 35 percent from February 2008 to February 2009, according to the new S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index. That’s the largest decline of any of the 20 largest cities in the U.S. In addition, Phoenix home prices are down 51 percent from their peak.

http://tinyurl.com/cwgjko

Devestment said...

Atlas Shrugged?

I'm too stupid.

Anonymous said...

Let the Trials Begin:

"Mozilo should get (10) 5 thousand years sentences to run consecutively without the possibility of parole or bladder control."

Victor Clavizzao sentenced to five years for mortgage fraud
Editor's note: Correction notice appended to story below
By Susan Taylor Martin, Times Senior Correspondent
In Print: Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Victor Clavizzao, a native New Yorker, had a lengthy prison record for fraud and grand theft before he moved to Pinellas County in 2005 and began working as a mortgage loan officer at the height of the subprime lending frenzy.
TAMPA — Mortgage fraudster Victor Clavizzao, who bilked lenders out of more than $2 million during the "Wild West" days of the real estate boom, was sentenced Tuesday to five years in federal prison followed by three years' probation.

Clavizzao drew the maximum penalty for one count of conspiracy to commit mail, wire and bank fraud, the charge to which he pleaded guilty in September. U.S. District Judge James Moody also ordered him to pay $2,075,000 in restitution to lenders and gave him a warning.

"Based on your history, I'm predicting you're going to have a hard time going three years without violating your supervised release," Moody said. "I'm telling you right now, you do not want to come back before me."

A co-defendant, Mark Lepzinski, pleaded guilty to the same charge and was sentenced in March to 13 months in prison.

As the St. Petersburg Times first reported exactly two years ago, Clavizzao, a native New Yorker, had a lengthy prison record for fraud and grand theft before he moved to Pinellas County in 2005 and began working as a mortgage loan officer at the height of the subprime lending frenzy. Using "straw buyers" and false income figures, he arranged loans on at least 18 houses and condos and pocketed hundreds of thousands of dollars in loan proceeds.

While acknowledging Clavizzao's wrongdoing, his attorney, Scott Andringa said the lending business was far different when banks required no proof of income or employment.

"We were dealing with a Wild West-like situation, almost like a gold rush," Andringa told the judge. "Everybody knew what was happening, and everybody wanted in on it because everybody was making money. When Mr. Clavizzao would call a lender, they were happy to hear from him. Then the real estate market collapsed, and suddenly it was like a game of musical chairs and the lender is the one without a chair."

Andringa asked the judge to reduce the maximum sentence, arguing that Clavizzao, 46, did not use what prosecutors called "sophisticated means" to defraud lenders. Moody rejected the request.

"Forging people's names — I find that to be sophisticated means," the judge said.

Clavizzao, accompanied to court by one of his brothers, nervously tapped his fingers, then stammered as he read a prepared statement.

"I accept responsibility and with great remorse I realize my actions have caused great hardship to others," he said. "I've lost more than I've gained."

Clavizzao's long string of victims includes Walter Norton, grandfather of his former girlfriend. Norton, 64, said his wife died of stress-induced illness after Clavizzao forged their names on $930,000 in loans for a waterfront house in St. Petersburg's Venetian Isles.

"I feel he was the cause of her death," Norton said Tuesday. "I wish he'd gotten more time."

Free on bond since September, Clavizzao has continued to collect rent on houses to which he has no legal claim. In at least one case, he rented out a house without informing the tenants that it had been foreclosed on and was about to be sold.

"I never saw a cent from that whole thing," said Frank Conard, 84, who says he was duped into taking out $630,000 in loans for the house in St. Petersburg's Crescent Lake area. "He's hurt an awful lot of people, and I just don't believe people like him are able to walk around doing things as long as he did."

Moody allowed Clavizzao to remain out on bond until his daughter graduates from high school in June. Assistant U.S. Attorney Thomas Palermo said Clavizzao has cooperated with authorities and provided information "we're pursuing in hopes of additional prosecutions." Palermo would not say whether any more arrests are expected.

At the time of his conviction on the federal charge, Clavizzao was on probation for state charges of driving drunk on a revoked license and leaving the scene of an accident that he tried to blame on one of his children. He also owes tens of thousands of dollars in civil judgments, most of them stemming from real estate deals.

"I tell you," Conard said, "I don't believe I've ever met anybody like that in all my life."

Susan Taylor Martin can be contacted at susan@sptimes.com.

PUNISH THE GUILTY

Anonymous said...

where is the x axis info on graph one keith?

is it 5,000 or 500 million.

you must get your graphing ability from al gore.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

The NYT is Quoting The Swan Man we shold send them some of his quots from 2005-2007. Check out Ben's Blog.

www.thehousingbubbleblog.com






Greg Swann, a Phoenix real estate agent, took a moment to marvel at the news. “What happened here will some day be a new chapter in ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,’ ” the classic survey of investing mania, he said. “We were living during the boom like there was no tomorrow. And guess what? Now it’s tomorrow.”

George L said...

hey Keith, can you comment on this?

http://tinyurl.com/dhm3co

"U.S. net worth =340 trillion?"

will shill for coin said...

Once again Pheonix leads the way down.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/business/economy/29econ.html?_r=1&ref=patrick.net


I want my apology from Greg Swann NOW!!!

Anonymous said...

"Guberville Smack said...
Aren't 50% of the Opt A's in California?
And how many people are walking away from the Opt A's even before the reset is due because rents are cheaper even BEFORE the resets?
And how many Opt A's will max. out before the reset date? So how much does that chart really say? Hmmm."

Yep - the problem with that chart is its dated. It assumes ALL loans 2009-2012 still exist, which isnt true. Alt A Tsunami has been knocked down by a smidge of sales and loan workouts, as well as a tidal wave of refis and early defaults.

In fact the creator of that chart, Ivy Zelman noted the "Alt A Tsunami" will now be far far less than shown on her infamous credit suisse chart, circa 2007.

Still that doesnt keep the bears from draging it out from time to time, pointing to the wave and screaming "were just in the 3rd inning"!!!!

will shill for coin said...

Holy Crap! That NY Times article cites the expert opinion of none other than our infamous Greg Swann.

Greg Swann, a Phoenix real estate agent, took a moment to marvel at the news. “What happened here will some day be a new chapter in 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds'.

Now I've seen everything, except for him apologizing.

Micawber said...

housing doom has a good video up today w/ banks bulldozing homes they cant sell in s. california.Surely a few gallons of gas and some rags would be cheaper? Especially in that wind.

They look as if they are in the middle of nowhere.

image009 said...

Here's Greg Swann in the NY Times -

http://alturl.com/rm27

Greg Swann, a Phoenix real estate agent, took a moment to marvel at the news. “What happened here will some day be a new chapter in ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,’ ” the classic survey of investing mania, he said. “We were living during the boom like there was no tomorrow. And guess what? Now it’s tomorrow.”

Who's 'bawling balefully' now?

Anonymous said...

Wall Street Pares Gains but Stays Positive as Fed Sees Recession Easing- AP Ha Ha you were wrong and the Fed was right. http://finance.yahoo.com/

Nimesh said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Guberville Smack said...
Aren't 50% of the Opt A's in California?
And how many people are walking away from the Opt A's even before the reset is due because rents are cheaper even BEFORE the resets?
And how many Opt A's will max. out before the reset date? So how much does that chart really say? Hmmm."

Yep - the problem with that chart is its dated. It assumes ALL loans 2009-2012 still exist, which isnt true. Alt A Tsunami has been knocked down by a smidge of sales and loan workouts, as well as a tidal wave of refis and early defaults.

In fact the creator of that chart, Ivy Zelman noted the "Alt A Tsunami" will now be far far less than shown on her infamous credit suisse chart, circa 2007.

Still that doesnt keep the bears from draging it out from time to time, pointing to the wave and screaming "were just in the 3rd inning"!!!!

April 29, 2009 7:33 PM

Well time will only tell if this real estate market has a lot more room to go down. I don't pretend to have all the answers and I won't call people who disagree with me by engaging in name calling.

However, let's remember, this real estate bubble was the largest asset bubble in the history of mankind! Thus it won't be over after a mild correction of only 30%. Let's face it, the price of a decent single family house in my area of Chicago went up to 550K to 900K. So even now, when prices are down to 300K to 500K, it's still not a "bargain".

When the cost of owning a home will be equal to rent, then I will buy. But we are not there yet, at least in my market.

Also, if you look at past bubbles that deflated, from their peak, prices crashed down 70% to 95%!!! So with this real estate market, there is a lot of room for the downturn.

Anonymous said...

this is not entirely true. many people with 5 year arms have refi'd in 15 and 30 year fixed loans. that reset number is based on very old data. and remember, people still have time to sell, take profit out or sell at a loss. so, to think that people will simply sit tight and do nothing is absurd. the option arm crowd is better financed and less leveraged that the subprime folks.

this is not an apples to apples comparison.

Anonymous said...

What chart and figure matter to you the most this year.

Do you think the resetting of Option ARM and Alt-A loans will start taking high end house price down starting November of this year if the Uncle Benny can not get interest rate under 4%.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/29/
news/economy
/metropolitan_area_unemployment

Unemployment rates in 109 metropolitan areas reached 10% or higher in March, almost eight times more than a year earlier, according to a government report released Wednesday.

Anonymous said...

There is good news in all of this - people are still willing to buy if companies are willing to sell at or below cost.

http://www.miamiherald.com/
business/nation/story/1024501.html

1957-58: The last time back-to-back GDP declines have been so bad

Peahippo said...

I've got a question for all of you guys who think the Alt-A reset spike is smaller:

HOW DID THOSE MORTGAGES GET RE-FIED WHEN THEY GOT UNDERWATER?In other words, why do you fucking LIE so much?

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