April 12, 2009

Meredith Whitney predicts that US home prices will fall over 50% from peak. And in related news, Lawrence Yun still has a job

Here's Whitney's latest

And here's a classic NAR ad, from perhaps the most evil and corrupt organization in United States history (giving the KKK a run for their money), telling people to buy homes at the peak.

Ruining lives. Destroying families. And earning commissions. After all, for America's 1.2 million realtors on commission and their 21 Reasons, that's what it's all about, right?





In your wildest nightmares ever think US home prices could fall 50%? We said they would, but to see it happen is stunning.

Oh, what a fraud-fueled Ponzi Scheme it was.

They'll be studying this one a thousand years from now.

10 comments:

Mike Oxlong said...

50% and maybe even more.

If we figure 2-2.5x average annual salary for a home price, and apply the location location location mantra, it looks like this to me:

Where I lived 15 years ago the average household income was something like $20K, a typical lower-middle class blue collar neighborhood. You could buy a fixer-upper for $40K or a house in move-in condition for $60K.

By 1999 that fixer-upper was $80K and I could buy a move-in townhome in the burbs for that, so I moved. Average household income in my new neighborhood was $40K. Seemed like things were out of whack in the city.

By 2007 my townhome was "worth" $180K and the average household income in my neighborhood was about $50K. Meanwhile a move-in house in the city was going for about $200K. In the old neighborhood, they were at about $25K household income.

Today our incomes haven't shifted much and my townhome is "worth" about $120K. That seems about right for the average income, maybe a touch high. But the house in the city is still going for $150K. That puppy's gotta drop. IMO it should be back to around $60-75K.

Anonymous said...

Buying a home is just that and after one pays it off their will be real honest equity. That's all!!!

A good deal for anyone BUT greedy,speculators, dumb investors and banksters created a mix of toxic assets.

BUY NOW OR MISS OUT said...

I love that last comment, "If we didn't buy NOW, we would have missed the opportunity on this home." Total Realtor-Speak. It's always about buying NOW or MISSING OUT. We know how that works.

GenX said...

Im Hopefully finally selling my loft in Florida..I bought in 1999 and renovatd the 2650 sq ft. ended up costing 450K ..at the peak and when I first started reading Housing panic it was worth a realisitc 900K.( I did sell off all my rental units in 2004/2005 so did well) When I saw people camping out to buy condos form a peice of paper I knew something was wrong with that picture... I have an offer now for $225K that im going to take becasue I want to move out of this town and possibly state. Meredith is not making a prediction it has already happened however most sellers other then bank forclosures and housing panic/sootand ashes readers dont realize this. Prices are heading back to 1996 prices a double bottom if your a chartist. I expect them to bounce quickly to 1998/99 pricing then slowly recover over the next 20 or so years. Many sellers are in a total state of denial. The property tax system in Florida is a Hoax. This housing crash has just really began. I see prices for condos down 75% from the peak or more. Maybe Washington can stave this off by offering 4% mortgages but that does nothing for the property taxes and insurance in Florida. The free Market always wins and down we go.

Anonymous said...

I wish they would fall 50% here. It seems like they dropped everywhere but here in the Philadelphia area.

Anonymous said...

LIKE I WAS SAYING...WE HELD n.y REAL ESTATE THAT WOULD NOT SELL AT A QUARTER OF ITS TAX ASSESSED VALUE FOR 15 YEARS AND WAS GLAD TO FINALY GET A THIRD OF ITS TAX ASSESSED VALUE AS A SALES PRICE THAT AVOIDED HAVING TO PAY WHAT AMOUNTED TO 18 PERCENT OF THE SALES PRICE IN PROPERTY TAXES EVERY YEAR.......GUESS IF THEY WANNA REGULATE AND LOOT YOUR PROPERTY ITS GONNA HAPPEN

Anonymous said...

You think American realtors are bad? Listen to this POS from Vancouver, BC.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KvQR-h_ct0

Anonymous said...

Don't forget rent is falling too.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s
/2/aa20e9cc-2533-11de-
8a66-00144feabdc0.html

Investors looking to re-enter the lettings market are being urged to tread carefully as some properties have suffered severe falls in rents as well as capital values.

“Investors may have thought that rapid falling capital values would mean that yields would rise and the investment story would be straightforward,” says Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank. “But it is more complicated because rents have fallen in the past 12 months.”

New figures from Knight Frank show that larger, more expensive properties in London have been the worst hit.

Banana Republicrat said...

The iconic photograph of GDII?

http://tinyurl.com/cwp72n

Anonymous said...

At least Lawrenc Yun still has a job.

http://i.zdnet.com/blogs/challenger.jpg

Layoffs in the technology sector accelerated in the first quarter to hit 84,217, the highest total since 2002, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

In a statement, Challenger noted that layoffs may pick up in the tech sector as companies start to merge.

In 2009, there have only been 1,360 merger-related job cuts.

In 2008, that tally was 31,313.

Tech job lost

1st QTR 2009 - 84,217 jobs
4th QTR 2008 - 66,312 jobs
3rd QTR 2008 - 38,269 jobs
2nd QTR 2008 - 33,644 jobs
1st QTR 2008 - 17,345 jobs