April 3, 2009

What's your current thinking on stocks, bonds, dollars, housing, commodities and gold?


My take - if you're a permabull or a permabear, you're a fool.

And this is no time to be a fool.

Have at it.

70 comments:

Anonymous said...

property, against the grain but inflation will boost real estate and de-zombify the realT whores

remember, real estate Always goes up dunnit?

Anonymous said...

Bumped everything up last month, I got cash that I have to do something with. I taken a four point approach. 1. money in to savings and have been laddering CDs 2. IRA and TSP 3. Stocks 4. Paying extra on the house that we are planning to move back to. It's hard to hear people complain about how bad it all is, when I have the problem of what to do with the extra money that is coming in. I'm sure there are many, many people who are having the same problem. Best of luck out there.

Saul said...

I'll bite. I think we are about half way down, maybe less. This is about where a bounce happens, and soon after the real fall of terror few expected. The problem is that the issues we face are not yet being admitted to, and the "solutions" so far are to throw money around. The root causes are endemic, and the major changes that need to happen are not happening. In fact, it seems that those responsible are using this confusion and remaining trust as an opportunity to go on an extended looting spree. "Too big to fail" gives you a blank taxpayer cheque. By the time we all work out what is really going on, and do something about it, it will be too late - the vaults will be empty. This will make things worse.

The unemployment numbers can't be so easily fudged (although they try). People are getting restless, and disillusioned with the powers that be to turn the ship around. There is a social "waking up" as everyone knows someone who is affected, if not themselves directly. Change is coming, and it will be painful, because the freedoms people assumed they have will be shown to no longer exist.

I wonder how long the Internet lasts. Will they try and control it? Shut it down? Silence the voices of dissent? One day will we try and go to Soot and find "This page is unavailable" error message? Does this make Keith a "terrorist"? Or will electricity go first?

As for your list then -

Stocks - down hard, when this little run is done.
Bonds - same
Dollar - trend down, then up, then fall off a cliff as faith finally dies.
Housing - down for a while yet
Commodities - some will do ok, depending on what they are used to make.
Gold - down for a while, then up, then up up up.

We will all find out soon enough - things seem to be happening quickly. However, my crystal ball says a lot of bad things to happen until 2012 at least.

The deflation/inflation coin is spinning in the air. Which side will it land on? How are the debts going to be repaid - default or inflation?

It's tempting to write more, but I hate reading long comments myself...

Paul E. Math said...

Housing - the fundamentals (price/rent, price/incomes) still look bad for housing. That said, there's no telling what the various branches of govt may be able to accomplish. If I don't get a good feel for what's going on then I just don't buy.

Commodities - I am invested in agricultural commodities but am down about 12% since buying in around november. I was thinking rather simplistically that if you print money, you get inflation.

But I'm thinking lately that to get inflation of the particular asset, good or service, the newly created money must be in the hands of people who want to buy more than is currently supplied.

Supply is not impaired and the buyers of agricultural commodities are mostly regular consumers who will be the last to receive any of this new money. Incomes are not going up.

Gold has risen for primarily psychological reasons - gold is the speculators asset of choice in times of inflation, not ag commodities. Gold retains a status as 'safe haven' that ag commodities do not have.

I'm staying in DAG for now but seriously considering unwinding the position.

Phillip McDoodle said...

Inflation, pure and simple. You can't print your way into prosperity. You can print into oblivion, however.

The dollar will crash and our standard of living will fall substantially.

Housing - way overpriced. When high inflation hits, however, you'll be glad to be in that 6% mortgage.

Anonymous said...

Think Cramer got it right this time around. Stocks made bottom on the 9th Mar. Treasuries look weak hence forth. Dollar will be OK (best of the worst), Housing will inflate itself out of slump, Commodities will boom thanks China, Gold is in for a shock as speculators dump.

Wind Farmer said...

I believe that thinking about stocks, bonds, dollars, housing, commodities and gold is so 2008.

My thinking has evolved into reviewing my options for the personal long-term physical safety of my family. I have a 7 year old who can be claimed by the state in a few years, put in a uniform and be given a gun. I'm really sorry I got him a SS number the day his was born. I'm thinking of moving to New Zealand. I don't feel safe here...I certainly don't feel free.

But, short term I feel like I have to be ready for everything to change in one day. I have no stocks or bonds. Dollars have to be moved into something...perhaps Norwegian Krones or more gold. I believe oil has nowhere to go but up, but I'm not sure how to play it. I found 17 acres with an old farm house which is what I want if I'm going to stay here. I'd better decide soon.

I just read a very good book for the agriculturally-minded:
It's a Long Road to a Tomato
Keith Stewart

"To the whole of life,
in all its myriad forms.
Even the rocks
hold themselves together.

Good earth mother
Mountain and river
Taker and giver
In this hour of madness
I come to you
With blood on my knees"

Anonymous said...

When the fundamentals of employment, P/E for housing, and total debt load carried (both private and public) look good or at least sustainable, then I will retire my permabear.

Anonymous said...

I heard someone on CNBC or Bloomberg the other day say CASH IS an investment choice, just like any other.

There is,in the investing culture an implication cash isn't a valid investment.

debt junkie said...

I called the Jim Rogers commodity index folks yesterday. They were plesant and knowledgable enough. I'm thinking I will call the Peter Schiff folks today then put half my available money with each of them.

Both of these funds have been pummeled the last 10 months but look like they're starting to turn. The Rogers fund was up last month for the first time since last June. It seems the commodities may have both timing and the fundamentals on their side.

MsNJ said...

i don't know why gold is in the $900 range. it should be in the $500 range. once everyone sells off what they bought or have to buy food/ pay mortgage/ etc. i think it will go down, and soon. we are still in deflationary mode, gold will follow.

then when hyperinflation hits, lookout.

this just my opinion, and i welcome anyone who would like to disagree.

MsNJ said...

Also, compared to pound, dollar is going down. Had I extra money, I would have bought pounds earlier this week, because $1.42 is way below where it ought to be at (imo, $1.75)

casey said...

Buy housing if you can cash flow.Buy stocks on the dips.Sell all your gold to the next round of fools.Drink some jack daniels and b thankful you still have a job.

Look at the positive side, 91.5% of people still have jobs.

bank dick said...

The markets will rally as inflation heats up, just like they did in Weimar Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Zimbabwe. Actual value of stocks will decline in real terms.

Commodities? To da moon.

Housing will get a huge boost from the Fed's machinations and reopening of the window at BAC for jumbo loans.

debt junkie said...

> I have a 7 year old who can be claimed by the state in a few years, put in a uniform and be given a gun. I'm really sorry I got him a SS number...

WindFarm dude you're freakin. Actually it would do this nation, particularly the lower half of the income ladder, tremendous good if there were a universal draft for two years service in the military. Teach some lessons besides how to get your ball cap off to just the right angle like some mindless rap hoodlum.

The problem is it would stiffle long-term creativity. The 5% that become lighter versions of Steve Jobs or Kurt Cobain need their space and thier time.

Basically it's politically impossible and won't happen. So stop being a tool. Go back to lighting farts to heat your apartment.

Mike Hunt said...

Deflation till we get world economic growth, lower unemployment and more checks.

Obammmmmyyy gimmee cheese!

-Mike

Anonymous said...

Casino "Wall Street" just got new franchises in Europe and Asia.

Made lots of $$$ but lost it again!

Just got out with a last shot of double or nothing this week and broke...even!

NOW,

Hey Mister can you spare a BOND.

Home bound,

Got on a jet and blasted,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6nF-klRa4k

Anonymous said...

i'm sticking with the boys over at itulip.com.

they have been spot on so far and they are saying a 30-40% drop in the DOW from here.

Anonymous said...

It's hard to answer a question about "housing" without tying it to a location. If I lived in Iowa or Wisconsin I would be buying up tons of farmable land. Of course I'd be competing against Jim Rogers and he'd be able to outbid me.

Anonymous said...

"How many roads must a man walk down before they can call him a man . The anser my friend is blowing in the wind ,the answer
is blowing in the wind ."

Bob Dylan

an overleveraged sob said...

Tom Coburn, is Mr. Obama's friend and an Oklahoma Republican, and has been close with the Illinois Democrat since 2004; he's the man the president hugged after his big joint sessions speech last month.

Thursday, in a column on RealClearPolitics.com, Mr. Coburn wrote, "I believe President Obama has proposed the most significant shift toward collectivism and away from capitalism in the history of our republic. I believe his budget aspires to not merely promote economic recovery but to lay the groundwork for sweeping expansions of government authority in areas like health care, energy and even daily commerce. If handled poorly, I'm concerned this budget could turn our government into the world's largest health care provider, mortgage bank or car dealership, among other things."


I guess he got fooled too.

borkafatty aka the pig said...

Stocks: Some stocks are extraordinarily cheap right now. If you are a long term investor you need to be at least looking for stocks to buy, if not already buying them. But the key is you need to do your homework before putting any money to work.

Bonds: Its time to tender your Treasuries to Uncle Ben. Interest rates are going to rise as inflation comes roaring back due to all the monopoly money being shoveled out by the Fed and Congress. This will devalue all bonds but I feel Treasuries have the furthest to fall because of how richly priced they are.

Commodities: A rising tide lifts all boats and the tide of inflation will lift nominal USD prices on all commodities. You can already see it starting.

Dollar: The Fed and Congress is doing their best to thrash the value of the dollar. Uncle Ben wasnt kidding when he said the Dollar has value only in that it is strictly limited in supply. His printing press has been and will continue to work overtime to paper over the problems in the Financial System. His plans will ultimately be successful if you define success as bringing back 1970s style inflation through currency devaluation.

Gold: Gold will soar when inflation comes back and it will with a vengance.

US Housing: In most of this country its time to buy a house. In the areas the bubble never hit like Dallas and Cleveland its safe. In most of CA, NV, AZ, and most of FL we're back to pre bubble era prices and if you can rent a property out for more than it costs to hold it, buy it. Rents will increase with inflation as will prices on the underlying asset. Since inflation will also be higher than mortgage rates, you'll make money on the spread. That said there are other areas where prices still need to decline significantly before it makes sense to buy - NYC and DC in particular. Rent must be > operating costs before it makes sense.

Deflation in the short term is not over yet but it will end. Uncle Bens tricks are all to stop it and I feel they will ultimately succeed and sooner than most think. Once it does and the velocity of all that freshly printed funny money picks up to normal levels, inflation will do a moonshot.

BG said...

"I'm staying in DAG for now but seriously considering unwinding the position."
***********************************
Hi Paul E.,

Could you tell me what DAG is?

thanks!

BG

BG said...

"Look at the positive side, 91.5% of people still have jobs."
*********************************

I would like to know the real number on that. I mean, 8.5% unemployment is only those still getting unemployment payments, right? How many people are either off the unemployment rolls but still looking for employement? How many are underemployed and not earning enough to survive? How many are living on savings with no employment? Would the real number be something a lot higher?

You are right when you say to be grateful to have a job. I am grateful but nothing is guaranteed still.

Anonymous said...

tobaco seeds until they kick in my door for being self reliant and not paying them because i am...

Anonymous said...

no to everything till i recover the purchase power and stability of it lost when the manipulators and regulators changed the inflation calculation numbers and balances so to not count house price inflation as inflation for their personal gains...........

Lady Di said...

I'm sticking with Roubini that the market is headed to new lows after this rally fades. Smart money will have exited by then; Joe 6-pack will be the bagholder once again thanks to the deceptive Obama & Co/media cheerleading and Suze Orman (when is Jon Stewart going to discredit this freak with her buy/hold advice?).

housing - much lower here in CA.
commodities - higher
gold - higher as dollar is devalued

casey said...

bg

Type in the ticker symbol in any quote service to figure out what DAG is.

Anonymous said...

They just announced the NWO diddnt you get the memo.. NWObama your boy.. Awsome im reserving my fema tent now.

Amtex said...

Gold.... a joke, everyone and their uncles are talking about it, holding gold parties, etc. Same old story, it may go up but unless you sell at the top you will end up holding $300 gold again sooner or later.

Oil...great long term investment. It serves a purpose, unlike gold. Ride it long term.

Housing....never again. It will be what it should be, a roof over your head that must cost less to own than to rent. Housing's day in the sun is over for good.

Stocks....the bottom was 6500. Will we dip back there as the 2nd part of the poop hits the fan, would not be surprised. But I got back in at about 7000 and think I will do just fine over the next 20 years before retirement.

Jobs...no offense, a lot of the unemployment was excess jobs, for now. And many companies have over reacted with their cuts. We are seeing so many great applicants and are improving the quality of our work force. Smart companies will use this time to do the same and emerge in much better position.

There will not be nearly the inflation in America as people think. The appetite around the world for US debt is always going to be huge. It is the best of the crappy lots.

Some countries will suffer but others like Brazil and India and others will step in as the huge growh areas.

The Obama factor....don't underestimate the ability of a smart and charismatic world leader.

Global invester said...

Stay away from European owned companies and Real estate in Europe.

We are still in the begining phases of the coming major EU economic collpase.

debt junkie said...

BG, I think you're referencing these numbers.

U3: The Official unemployment rate.

U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.

U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.

U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can not due to economic reasons.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment#United_States_Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics

les said...

Trading on volatility

Buy and hold is for chumps

Stuck in So Pa said...

Got on a side link off of Hotmail this a.m. listing the 10 best housing markets.

#10: D.C.
#9 :Detroit.........

I couldn't go on I was laughing so hard. Of course these were the Bargain (?) markets (I think overpriced D.C. was down 6%, some bargain!) mentioning NOTHING about livability! We went through D.C. over the holidays on our way south to visit extended family. I visited Detroit two years ago. Even if the POS was free and you offered to pay the taxes and utilities for the rest of my life I would NEVER move to either pit of hell.

Housing is still toast!

But at least it’s back to being worth whatever the FB says its worth. That should make sellers happy.

Thank you new uptick rule!

Joe said...

The Martin Armstrong turn date is April 19th. After which we will descend into hell and 3rd world status.

Joe M.

gutless and lazy said...

It's clear. A powerful bear market rally has been underway for over 4 weeks. However, it will not last.

Fundamental economic issues for American workers are not being addressed, nor are they improving. E.G. Last week, IBM Global services blatantly announced 5,000 USA workers would be fired and these positions would be immediately filled by workers in India.

My thinking is most like Doug Kass' thinking. This rally may last another 4 weeks, but the overall indexes will go back down.

Go long and trade the Financials. Go long and trade the Energy sectors. Short gold.

The world wide trillion dollar fixes are in, western govts will prop up the banks into money makers again. Inflation will occur later after the reflation, so hard energy assets are the way to play that. Fear is retreating slowly. Gold coming in for a 50% hair cut.

Anonymous said...

"...Rent must be > operating costs before it makes sense..."

Our hood in San Diego: currently around $450k; rents around 2000.

Only 40% down to go.

Rob Dawg said...

Dow 14,000 to Dow 8,000 is the warning not the event.

gutless and lazy said...

Oh, and BTW, companies like GE and IBM are a disgrace to the USA.

As the personal pain increases in the USA with increasing unemployment, India's and China's economy continues to grow at around 7% GDP.

All while workers here get cut at an accelerating pace:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/economy

USA multi nationals are an absolute disgrace and are UNAmerican. Obama should fire every single F100 CEO.

Anonymous said...

Adjusted for inflation, gold should be selling for a minimum of $6,000 +.

Unemployment is really at 15%.

Anonymous said...

*FLASH*

Fed ‘extremely uncomfortable’ about bailouts

Saved right alongside "AIG Chief Finds Bonuses Distasteful"

I'm sure these myriad TAUNTS are mere coincidence: Kash carried off, Madeoff with it, Congress didn't want to do it...

Fuck. You. All.

Anonymous said...

"...collapse of those companies would have dealt a serious blow to the financial system and the national economy..."

IN OTHER WORDS: because we wrote their stockholders immense checks on your tab, things are fine now.

PFL0W said...

Oil.

Buy oil stocks.

As much and as soon as possible.

take it to the bank.

Cynical? Sure. But it'll be the place to have your money.

Anonymous said...

I am short long treasuries (TBT). This sucker is gonna blow!

I am also now buying SRS to short reits. Higher rates will bring down many commercial properties already in trouble.

Helicopter is praying he doesn't have to start raising rates until next year. My take is rates start going up in October just in time for the October crash.

With all the cash being thrown something has to stick. Food and agriculture will soar.

Commodities will stay low until summer. Then in June get ready for the commodity bull to take off.

When commodities start to take off Helicopter will need a huge vacuum to start bringing home the dollar.

Bottom line we have 2 more months before inflation will be number problem.

JAWS said...

I'm for cash. Just let it roll.
One tiny property that's rented. Just let it roll too. The Stock Market ticks me off so much that I moved all accounts to money market. Just let them roll.

For now, just rub elbows with friends, BBQ, drink wine, read blogs.

I am not doing one stinking thing. I've been through enough ups and downs to know when I smell a rat and I smell a bunch of them.

Anonymous said...

Ohhhh Keith he is so dreamy and totally awesome!

ahhhh uhhhh errrrr ahhhhh

Anonymous said...

Anyone who chooses to play an obviously rigged game is an idiot or an exception.

Unfortunately, most like to them the exception.

Andrew from Russia said...

Adjusted for inflation, gold should be selling for a minimum of $6,000 +.

And that's the REAL inflation, I suppose, as the CPI-adjusted single-day $850 spike of 1980 yields only about $2500 in today's dollars.

Unemployment is really at 15%.

And that's the REAL unemployment, as if 40-hour workweeks were as sustainable in a post-industrial economy as they were 50 years ago.

That's exactly what I meant with my previous comment: this kind of "unconvenient truth" getting mainstream. TEOTWAWKI prognosticators everywhere! Trust me, there's the same sentiment in Russia on 50% REAL inflation, 35% REAL unemployment, imminent rouble/dollar/euro collapse etc. I can't see how these "truths" can guide one's investment decisions any way better than they did last year.

Back on the topic, I'm still 49% in USD ("greening down" from 68% last July), and 19% in domestic stocks (accumulating utilities, manufacturing, agri-food, and regional telecoms since December, while steering clear of the overhyped Russian "commodity superpower" blue chips). Absent violent rallies, the equities part will grow further in the months to come.

Anonymous said...

"What's your current thinking on stocks, bonds, dollars, housing, commodities and gold?"

Sometimes doing nothing is the best alternative.

Anonymous said...

Well Cramer says it is jolly good time to buy (with caution) so who are we to argue with such a guru?

Smug Bastard

Anonymous said...

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.”
– Mark Twain

Anonymous said...

Well, I'm plan to wait until about July before buying property, but then I do think selected properties might be a good store of value. The problem of course, is the Administration. I'd be glad to buy rental housing - except if there is serious inflation - which is very likely, I'm sure that Obama will slam rent freezes on any rental property. I am looking for a small farm, but I don't want to buy a long drive away from my paid-up home. Stocks - no. This is a dead cat bounce, and not until inflation starts to churn will we see a sustained improvement in the stock market. Dollars - well, a year's expense needs secreted in the house makes some sense. But more than that, no. Commodities - a conditional yes, although these might well be seized by the government just when they are soaring. Gold - this is a long term store of value, but it will not be possible to sell it,I am sure, except to the government, shortly. So right now, I am investing in my kids, in my community, and in property small enough to be held by me or given to my kids

Anonymous said...

JAWS wrote: For now, just rub elbows with friends, BBQ, drink wine, read blogs.

I am not doing one stinking thing. I've been through enough ups and downs to know when I smell a rat and I smell a bunch of them.

Amen to that. All in cash - some that draws interest tax free. Sit and wait for Mr. Fear and Mr. Market and Mr. Default and Mr. Foreclosure to smoke all these jokers out in the meantime. All the happy talk and "thumbs up photo shoots" in the world won't help these bastards out as the defaults pile up. Load up the motorcycle and go trout fishing for the spring. F*ck 'em all in the meantime.

Smug Bastard

Mitesh Damania said...

How to kill the Fed: Buy Gold
http://tinyurl.com/ctmm7l

Anonymous said...

Anonymous gutless and lazy said...

Oh, and BTW, companies like GE and IBM are a disgrace to the USA.

As the personal pain increases in the USA with increasing unemployment, India's and China's economy continues to grow at around 7% GDP.

All while workers here get cut at an accelerating pace:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/economy

USA multi nationals are an absolute disgrace and are UNAmerican. Obama should fire every single F100 CEO.

April 3, 2009 7:02 PM

Sir, I respectfully disagree with you. IBM, Cisco, Microsoft, etc.... are not "American", they are not collectively owned by Americans. They are just based here. They don't owe this nation anything. Their sole purpose is to make profits for their shareholders.

If someone in India can do a better job for less pay, then so be it. That is the REALITY. Will you spend your time fighting reality or trying to adapt to it?

Anonymous said...

Deficits don't matter.

Singular said...

This question is pointless, irrelevant... What is your thinking on stocks, bonds, dollars, housing, commodities and gold in ZIMBABWE? The answer you get is the same you'll get for the USA.

It's over, people.

You think the crash in Zimbabwe is bad? Multiply that by a 1000x and that is what you'll see in the USA.

Singular said...

I know what WILL go up ... more of these rage mass-shootings, sad to say.

Miss Goldbug said...

Anon said:"Sometimes doing nothing is the best alternative".


I agree. When everything looks bad, go to cash and stay there.

Anonymous said...

I'm going as hard as I can into rental real estate and slightly into stocks. By "as hard as I can" I mean I am buying every property I can find that 1) cash flows positive (I usually like to pay 100 times 1 months gross rents) and 2) is near a large college for almost guaranteed rent stability.

For instance right now I am under contract on a house costing $360,000 that rents for $3550/month. With 25% down ($90,000) and a mortgage payment of $1700 (4.75% 30 yr FIXED) I'm cash flowing by a little over $900/month or $11,000/year after expenses for a 12.2% return on my $90k. That doesn't include any principle paydown benefit.

Now if inflation gets to 10% it will only take 7.2 years for the rents and the house price to DOUBLE. At that point gross rents would double to $7000 and you would capture about 2/3rds of that increase as pure profit. Now you're monthly net rental income would be about $3250, not to mention your underlying asset value has increased by about $300,000. Sure these net profits will only by you half of what they would today but you're still talking amazing returns even in 2009 dollars.

Mitesh Damania said...

I'm going as hard as I can into rental real estate and slightly into stocks. By "as hard as I can" I mean I am buying every property I can find that 1) cash flows positive (I usually like to pay 100 times 1 months gross rents) and 2) is near a large college for almost guaranteed rent stability.

What part of the country are you buying property in?

Anonymous said...

but your paying 100s of thousands od dollars for housings worth 60,000 at most and with the dollar printing causing inflation that normally raises interest rates and lowers house prices .you must be gambling that manipulators win???? and im sure the unemployed school boys will be willing to pay 3000 for your near to school rental properties and bend over as well?

Anonymous said...

i remember holding new york real estate that assessed at 4 times what it finally sold for and was glad to sell it at a third of its tax assessed "value" to avoid what ammounted to paying 18 percent of its final sales price in taxes every year, and then again i see 126,000 people inquire about a unit priced less than 100,000 on manhattan island????????????? or very near nyu . what about demand bidding up prices or not in relation to prices the market will bear? ? suckers????????

Anonymous said...

squeeze the renters .aka..squeeze the bread out a your mouth? 300,000 profit doing it in the modern world when 300,000 was a lifetimes and more savings a while back whereby savings paid something more than inflation in house prices not calculated as inflation rules.........BS..... back to flip the flippers!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

"I am under contract on a house costing $360,000 that rents for $3550/month."

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I'm calling bullshit on this statement. What city that has a house worth 360K renting for $3,550a month? I'm all ears.

Anonymous said...

Why does real estate always goes up.

Look at these Single Family home in Sunnyvale, California for example.

It was said that the heart of Silicon Valley will never go down yet with unemployment rate at 10% as of Feb 2009, how much longer can house price be artificially prop up.

That not even counting the Option Arm and Alt-A loans that will reset later this year.

83# Nectarine Ave
Bed 4, Bath 2, Sqft 1,766
Sold $97,000 Feb 05, 2009
Was $940,000 July 08, 2008

14# S Bernardo Ave
Bed 2, Bath 1, Sqft 1,389
Sold $52,500 Sept 19, 2008
Was $500,000 Sept 20, 2004

94# Sutter Ave
Bed 3, Bath 1.5, Sqft 1,144
Sold $208,500 June 16, 2008
Was $718,000 June 30, 2005

71# Sheraton Dr
Bed 3, Bath 2, Sqft 1,288
Sold $167,000 June 08, 2008
Was $600,000 Apr 18, 2002

101# Fuller Ter
Bed 3, Bath 3.5, Sqft 1,686
Sold $25,000 Feb 05, 2008
Was $790,500 Sept 28, 2005

112# W McKinley Ave
Bed 3, Bath 2, Sqft 1,956
Sold $317,000 Feb 05, 2008
Was $770,000 Sept 20, 2006

Anonymous said...

Post #66 shows the game.

Can you figure it out?

Anonymous said...

"I'm calling bullshit on this statement. What city that has a house worth 360K renting for $3,550a month? I'm all ears."

I invest in a small college town in Washington State. Other good markets are Norman OK, College Station TX and several others.

The play is obviously betting on inflation in a big way. Here's a hint get 30 yr FIXED loans. Rates are at 5% flat for investment property now. Inflation will get above that EASY.

Look guys imo there is no debate about inflation/deflation. Inflation is coming in a BIG way.

I don't understand half the comments i think were directed at me..couldn't read em or make heads or tails. I'm not saying it's as easy as buying anything listed. You gotta do a little more work than that. Know people, know your markets, foreclosure properties ect. Lately we only buy 2 or 3 a year that meet our criteria but it's getting better and better to be a buyer.

Everyone who says "gold" is the play is really saying, "inflation is coming and I want to own an inflating asset." Well I agree inflation is coming, but I want to own an inflating asset, that also pays a 10% annual yield, that also allows me to to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars in "today" dollars that I can pay back in 10 years with "half price dollars". It's a no brainer if you buy right.

Mammoth said...

"A small college town in Washington State."

Go Cougs!

Anonymous said...

The houses always go up. It depends how you hold the chart ...(upside down)