May 21, 2009

Any Questions?

25 comments:

Jayman01844 said...

You can have quite a party on a few trillion dollars. Does it have to be paid back?????
Anyone have an answer????
China are you getting paid back???

fat amelican said...

B.S. numbers, B.S. leaders, B.S. policies.

Any questions?

Dr. Huxtable said...

Keith,

You declared the recession over. How do you feel about the Stock Market retesting its lows of around 6,400?

I read on a Bloomberg article a couple days ago Jim Rogers stating that the bottom is not in, stocks will retest lows.

Went2puke said...

Yes Keith! I don't just have a question-- I have a problem with this assumption that things are going back to normal:

The index of leading indicators is made up of 10 measurements, as you well know. What this chart is not telling is that the biggest contributor to this "fake" rise is a 0.44 point provided by the Standard & Poor’s 500 index suckers' rally in April, plus another 0.27 point from the highly volatile and unreliable index of consumer confidence.

To make things look even rosier, this chart reflects a slight drop in jobless claims-- from 658,000 in March to 624,400 in April (big deal!). This slight improvement lifted the the index by an additional 0.16 point.

But the money supply--the most important factor of all indicators-- fell last month again, and the Conference Board’s index of current economic activity, fell 0.2percent. As for the building permits, they also dropped to a record low in April.

And even after this glossy chart, every index on Wall Street is now going red. But I am sure they'll re-bound very shortly after enough suckers get a chance to be "informed."

Moths! I tell yah!

Anonymous said...

Keith,

This is a better comment on the LEI:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/whackage-2/

this is a better chart:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/lei-coincident.gif

The little bounce you are pointing at is smaller than the one that occurred in summer of 2007, and look where that got us.

Dead Cat said...

I got one...Why is the stock market tanking again if this is indeed a "Recovery"?

Batman said...

Jayman: no, nobody is getting paid back. This is part of the last few waves of the magic wand with the "Pay no attention to the man behind that curtain" echoing in the background.

Since it is a confidence game to the core, they will pull out every stop there is to prevent the emperor-has-no-clothes moment.

God know what happens if Joe Six Pack packs it in and starts buying ammo, whiskey, cigarettes and gold with his spare pennies, but I'm sure the Chinese realize with 99% of their eggs in the US$ basket they can't anything too hastily...

casey said...

Looking for a major pullback in the market soon.rally is tried.Dumb money is in the game now.All of a sudden we are in a bull market when the govt prints a bunch of money.Game is rigged folks.The carrot is about to hit the floor.

Anonymous said...

Just when you think you know the answers. They change the questions.

Angry Leprechaun said...

I think I will sit here and laugh at you!

Nimesh said...

Anonymous Jayman01844 said...

You can have quite a party on a few trillion dollars. Does it have to be paid back?????
Anyone have an answer????
China are you getting paid back???

May 21, 2009 4:53 PM

Jayman, all of these fools who rushed in to buy "quality paper" will get their ass handed to them. Let's face it; the U.S. of A. will stiff her creditors and they have no one to blame but themselves.

All purchase of debt has a creditor and a debtor. The creditor takes the risk in lending his/her hard earned money and anticipates getting paid back. So in the end, they risked it and now they must face the music.

les said...

June is the month that most state and local govt determine their yearly budget. Most layoffs occur in August and September for the govt sector.

1 million college students graduate this month and next. Only 22% have jobs waiting.

I expect bloodshed in August/September and the stock market to retest 6400. Too many people are not calculating forward p/e ratio. Stocks are overpriced.



Two words:

Demand Destruction

euonymous said...

Kieth,
Yer such a jokester!

gutless and lazy said...

Went2Puke, congrats.
You nailed it.

5 gold stars for you.

gutless and lazy said...

Nice Bio on Roubini:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini

"He also appears on CNBC almost every day. He is a curious presence on the network--the antipode to its yawping, fratty ethos--and he is trotted out to play the foil, delivering bad news with a dark and steady gaze, punctuated by the occasional impish smile. It's good for business, Roubini admits, but he makes no secret of his contempt for the network's roster of "perma-bulls who declare that this is the dramatic and cathartic event that signals the bottom of the crisis, and recovery is three months ahead."

"What a delusion," Roubini sniffs.

Though he hasn't attacked the Obama administration's policies with Paul Krugman's fury, and though he is no longer the most bearish of the bears, his short-term outlook is still quite bleak: a 36-month downturn, double-digit unemployment, and sluggish, recessionary growth well into 2010. At best."

Anonymous said...

Sure, let's look how reliable the indicators are:

"Seven indicators rose, including stock prices, as the Dow Jones industrials are up by about a third since March. Consumer expectations, the average work week, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and deliveries by vendors grew, while initial jobless claims dropped, also a positive."

Here's the truth:

1. Stock Prices - manipulated casino by Goldman Sachs/PPT. Worthless indicator.

2. Consumer Expectations - Are you kidding me? Read #4 below. Subjective and worthless indicator.

3. New Orders - reposition of low inventory based on blind optimism induced by corrupt media. HP profit down 17%, Singapore GDP down 15%, Germany down 7%, and the list goes on and on. Any company can sell for 0% rate and zero profit to make sales grow.

4. Jobless Claims - May 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks declined for a third day, extending a global slump, after higher-than-forecast jobless claims spurred concern the weakening labor market will stymie an economic recovery.

Anonymous said...

bwahahahaha...it took Keith three days to come up with these oh-so reliable indicators to prove his point. BTW, it's based on a "private research group". Geez, I wonder if you dig deep enough it'll lead you all the way back to the office of Rahm E.

gutless and lazy said...

This is an academic thread.

Recessions and their technical definitions are irrelevant. The point is, "Have you recovered?"

An economy could fall say, 50%, and then stop falling and start to expand. Technically, by definition, it's out of recession. Big deal, so what, the economy is still 50% below peak. The nation and it's citizens networth and strategic position still remains seriously eroded.

Let's not loose site of the big picture here.

The REAL question is "has the nation recovered from the fall?" Hardly. Now we have the burden of trillions in new debt, just to stop the free fall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research

http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html

Dates of recessions are determined by identifying the date of the most recent peak in GDP to the most recent trough in GDP. The duration of this negative trend in GDP is the length of the recession. Dates of economic expansion can be similarly determined.[5]

Ross said...

***hiccup***

gary coleman's bitch said...

What recession you guys talking about.every time I go out for drinks bars are packed.It is not a recession till you lose your job.

JOB= just over broke
Look for dOW to test 7000.

Grab your ankles and pray to allah.

Single said...

Yeah Keith - a couple questions. First, do you REALLY believe that the recession has come to an end? (OH,wait, I forgot for a moment, that you believe ANYTHING that comes out of the mouth of Obama or his pinheads - question answered, of course you do, Barrack said its over). Second question, can the recession really be over when tons of folks are in the process of losing jobs in the car manufacturers, the dealers that have been cut loose and all their staff, the parts suppliers that will be dropping like flies. Yup, I see your point, Obama and his policies have it all under control.

BTW - I've got a bridge I'd like to sell ya.

Fanny Alger said...

The answer

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

prisoner6 said...

Karl Denninger at Tickerforum would absolutely disagree. Today he predicted we're about 3 months away from a bond-market dislocation that will destroy what's left of America.

Regarding today's treasury sales, he wrote in his blog: "If Foreign Central Banks are selling into Ben's bid then the game is literally weeks or even days away from being over.... the time to short the phone book is approaching."In his forum, he wrote: "This fall guys, this fall [it happens]. We're ~3 months from the shit hitting the fan. There will be one more pump after this selloff finishes. Count on it."

Tyrone said...

Keith,
I have just two words...
Gold, Silver.

Anonymous said...

on a purchace power parity i never recovered from the year 2000 downleg into a possible secular bear