May 3, 2009

Casino Update


les said...

The S&P Chart looks a little misleading. Look at the left-hand scale. 10 to 100 to 1000. The straight line gives the impression that the S&P is right on course.

Andrew from Russia said...

It appears that even the Windows 7 Release Candidate makes use of the "Green Shoots" and "Coming Back from Underwater" themes! It would be treacherous, immoral, self-harming (or just too early) to nip... er, I mean to short those Green Shoots!
There's, of course, no recovery - just because getting back into the unsustainable consumerist boom (1) is impossible, and (2) should not be termed a recovery at all.
For the record, I'm 22.4% into domestic stocks, turning defensive after profiting from having picked them up near their winter lows.

Devestment said...

I recently bought two antique slot machines . They are fun to play and I will make a tidy profit at sale.

The thing I notice about playing the machines is that even though they always win I still love to play.

I am satisfied with my purchase.

Now try this with stocks.

Ron Paul is right! said...

I'm still holding off. Can't bring myself to do it. It sure looks tempting though.

It "seems" the market has stabalized. Dow's been trading 7500-8000 range (appx) for about 6 weeks now, but it still looks precarious at best. Every month another 600,000 jobs lost, GDP worst in forever and yet the market goes up 50 points? Everyone is betting on the fed and the US governement, not even paying attention to the news.

Bottom line, I don't think they will pull this off. I don't think deflation or unemeployment will be staved off. I think it crumbles for another 1-2 years. Then I will buy again.

But again, I got out early, mid '06. I am very conservitive, not a trader at all. So this being a casino, not really my style. I'll sit in cash until I am fairly certain its stable. If I miss the bottom, if I miss a big run, oh well.

Oh off topic, Ron Paul on "swine flu". Sorry for adding more logic and common sense. I know, I know, I should get on board, "Obammy give me thera-flu!" Just can't do it.

Lost Cause said...

The S&P500 is not finished dropping yet.

keith said...

After the gains of the past couple months, I was feeling pretty bullish (at the casino)

But Chart #2 on this thread was a real eye-opener.

I've sold into this awesome rally and am taking a break.

It's gambling folks, not investing. The hedge funds have f*cked it up for all of us.

born to lose said...

when you use those hundred year charts it looks like we're almost there. Just another 10 years and we'll be through our 2 decade correction. kick ass.

Airbus Sucks said...

Speaking of Gambling, Boeing’s new 787 Dreamliner is set to fly for the first time within the next month or two.

Anyone betting on that boosting their stock? (Granted, Swine Flu is hammering the travel industry and can have a negative impact on Boeing stock price.)



wallstreetvet said...

The only thing I'm find bullish is that almost EVERYONE is bearish. Every blog I read, every intelligent article. Only bullish people are the CNBC bunch. HMMM. Also Buffett talking up his book on WFC and saying bank stress tests are baloney.

Stay Cautious here.

Mike H. said...


You are saying that you made a profit in this market even with the anchor AAPL you are carrying? Sure AAPL is up but at the levels you bought it's still underwater. Are you holding on or did you cut your loss?

For the record, I thought I could make some money on some emerging market Chinese stocks that I bought last May. Well my timing sucked even though the companies had good financials and real growth over the past year. I was down as much as 60% and with this rally I sold making a meager 3% on my original buy. Slightly better than a bank account but no big gains for me. I'm just happy to be made whole again.


Anonymous said...

sit in cash and be nickeled and dimed to death or the downward spiral

keith said...

AAPL is nearly even now. Wish I had bought more. But things I did buy in the past couple months had great runs - pretty much everything did. Took my gains, back to the sidelines for a bit.

The bounce off the low was one for the history books. Anyone remember what it felt like the day stocks hit their lows a couple months back? EVERYONE was negative. EVERYONE was disgusted. ALL the 'experts' were saying depression and stocks going lower. Even Jim Cramer was talking Dow 5000. It seems so obvious now.

Fast forward to today. Now Cramer is all excited and talking bull market. The 'experts' are saying we bottomed. Lots of buy recommendations. Retail investors starting to rush back in.

Makes me a bit worried. Might be some panic buying this week, followed by you know what.

If you're in the casino, it's a traders market. What's right one day can be wrong - very wrong - the next. And visa versa. The hedge funds are still unregulated, and are colluding, and they're making it nearly impossible for retail investors. Be careful.

Any guesses what the 'stress test' results will do to the market this week?

Markets hate uncertainty, so this might actually help - get the big banks 'resolved', even if it's $100 billion more. But then there's the hundreds and hundreds of banks that weren't tested. And you know what's gonna happen to most of them...

les said...

The stress test is based on the assumption that unemployment will top at 10.5% and that we will have 5% or higher GDP growth in the next several years. That's right, 5% growth or higher every year.

The stress test is a joke, but the sheeple will be fooled.