June 1, 2009

Jim Cramer likes stocks

He did tell people last year to get out.

And he told people this year to get in.

Got to give the guy some credit, even if you hate him.

So far, on those two big calls, he's been right.


(Unless this thing falls off a cliff again)


51 comments:

Anonymous said...

Fuck Jim Cramer.

LOSER

Dr. Huxtable said...

I have never seen such a strong market rally that just will not give. Out of control.

No way am I throwing my money at a DOW 8,700 after such a run up though. I missed the run up, and I would like to avoid showing up just in time for a drop.

But I would not be surprised with this strength to see DOW 9,500 by mid August or even sooner.

keith said...

I think a lot of people missed out on this rally. Especially the 'experts' who said it was a bear market rally that would quickly collapse.

It hasn't.

So, what happens next?

Well, if the market does its normal cruel thing, right when the people who missed out finally can't take any more and get in, THAT'S when you'll have your correction.

There's still a ton of cash on the sidelines, and the majority I'd say don't think this rally has legs.

That's good news if you're buying.

Anonymous said...

He told you to get out after the true crash had happened. Granted there was another 15-20% to go but after a 30% correction alread underway big deal. I hardly call that remarkable.

This is the "Obama Rally" which may or may not catch the economy on fire and was also not a hard call.

Cramer sounds like a good guy to have a $400 beer with if you have $400 dollars to buy a beer.

DMP

Guberville Smack said...

Yep.
And he is always just a little too late to tell you to get in, and a little too late to get out.

And that is exactly how the game is played.

keith said...

Cramer's Oct 6 get out call was at Dow 10,300. It fell to 6,440, another 37%.

His March call to buy was at Dow 6,600. It's now at 8,700, a gain of 32%. Many stocks are up 100%+ since then.

Hard to argue with.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, he told people to get out after losing 1/2 of their money. And, he told people to get back in after he buddies had bought everything on the cheap and Bammy had a good 2 trillion to spend.

And Kieth, you are right - it will go up again, but we will be killed by inflation and it will come crashing down again.

Look at oil - why the F has it been going up the last few months when the world is currently FLOODED with oil?

Andrew from Russia said...

Being the one who announced his entrance into Russian stocks around New Year (when rouble savers were crowding to buy dollars), I'm now holding my hand on the eject button. I was there for saucerpan bottoms, not V-troughs. Maybe I'll even resume my "Greening Up" campaign if the rouble is allowed to appreciate further. In "In God We Trust" we trust!

Michael G said...

Keith, What about the numerous buy calls he had in 2007, including the classic "Just buy...I know it does not make sense but just buy" when the Dow hits its all time high. While Cramer may have made some good calls, overall I think if you were with him in 2007-early 2008 you got your lunch handed to you. He also has called a housing bottom a few times since this all went down and has been burned.

Anonymous said...

get in at 14.

get out at 10.

get back in at 8 or 7.

sounds like who ever gave that advice just took your money.

Anonymous said...

Can anyone explain what happened last Friday (5/29/09) in the S&P? Does any of this shit in the other indexes make a bit of sense? We are at crucial points technically for the USD and the S&P. Weird shit is going on and on top of that we have Keith calling full speed ahead for this rally.

I'm staying in cash, yes US-f*cking-Dollar cash, until this festering boil pops.

wallstreetvet said...

Cramer talks so much, its hard to know when he's bullish or bearish. Thats his edge, we can go back and say oh look he was right.

All I remember from CNBC.com is alot of b.s. commentary over the last few months.

Why do we all want to follow supposid Gurus? Do your own homework. Nobody has the magic answer, and IF they did. They would be working for a hedge fund and pulling in $50mil a year, not talking to the public.

Same for public speakers, if they are speaking to YOU and charging YOU a fee, forget it, its because the professional investors gave up on them. Precter from Elliott is a perfect example.

Ignore..

Anonymous said...

Keith,

I hate agreeing with you. Especially on the stock market.

In my opinion, we should see a sharp correction soon. However, I have to admit that if the S&P passes the 950 support level, I and many other shorts are in trouble. There is currently no logical reason for the S&P to hit 950, but who ever said the freaking was market was logical. I'm sticking to my short position, however. See you longs (Cramer) in hell.


Dny

Anonymous said...

I think it's been raised before but your posts are becoming increasingly bipolar, Keith.

So now Cramer is a guru we can trust? Gone off the deep end, eh?

Denninger doesn't think so. I guess in your mind he's just a stubborn perma-bear that can't adapt to the new Messiah's miracle economic recovery.

It's slightly offensive how you claim that anyone who disagrees with your idea that we are in recovery is a doom and gloomer and a perma-bear. Those are exactly the criticisms that were leveled at you by the stock market pumpers and DOPES!

Denninger.

Green shoots my ass. Fools rally is more likely.

Of course, if you're trying to say we are in recovery from an Austrian economic's point of view then I would understand. According to the Austrian school the recovery began at the height of the bubble - the inflection point when we headed into recession because it is the recession that cleanses and flushes out the excesses for future sustainable growth.

-Gonzo

Anonymous said...

Cramer is an expert on talking from both sides of his mouth. An "expert" who makes multiple calls will always be right.

Dr. Huxtable said...

I am really struggling to determine if we are bottoming in housing or if more declines are to come. Let’s specifically focus on two variables: supply and delinquencies.

I see inventories decreasing in my city, specifically single family residences that are well priced which are going pending quite fast and in some cases receiving multiple offers.

Cramer is calling the housing bottom : http://www.cnbc.com/id/31007154/

But how can we bottom when delinquencies are increasing?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124385425510071885.html

It seems like increased delinquencies will result in more foreclosed properties that will be sold at below market prices thus driving the overall market down. So even if inventories begin to decline, thereby bringing supply/demand into a more balanced level, increased delinquencies will result in more foreclosures and add pricing pressure on inventories.

So the bottom cannot be in until the delinquencies begin to decrease; or am I wrong?

Anonymous said...

good luck out there.

Guberville Smack said...

Since I got out in Jan 08, Cramer seemed like a joke at DOW 10,300.

As far as I am concerned this is a suckers rally fueled by rigged financials. Anyone who missed this rally is too late, we are going back down.

Anonymous said...

At 10,300 he told people who needed cash soon to get out not everybody. Check me but if I am not mistaken (I watch a lot of CNBC that was really at DOW 8200) As you pointed out on your Blog Obama "called" the bottom on March 9.

Cramer is the poster child of what is wrong with America living off the second and third orders of the economy instead of really creating something. Ask yourself ... "do I want him running your business?" The answer is "No".

DMP

keith said...

People who are invested are now printing money

People who are currently in US dollars are getting destroyed.

Whether they know it or not.

JaneZ said...

Where does a bond market crash fit in with a V Shape recovery?

Denninger:

Short End Debt Offerings

91 day bill offering:

Bid-to-cover 3.69, Indirect was ~51% of the total (eek!)

182 day bill offering:

Bid to cover 3.22, Indirect was 46%.

This tells me the following:

* The shorter the offering, the more interest. That's not so good.
* The shorter the offering the more indirect (foreign) interest, and foreign interest is abnormally high.

Thus:

1. Foreigners (e.g. China) are shortening duration. This is very bad for the longer end of the curve. We could see DRAMATIC evidence of this next week, which would confirm the warning that the bond market has been flashing since Bernanke's QE announcement.
2. People are willing to take damn near nothing for 26 week (basically half year) bills - 0.29% and half that (0.15%) for the 13 week.

Short form: Don't fall in love with the idea that "everything is improving" aka "Green Shoots."

Foreign governments and general bond buyers aren't believing in it; they're willing to lend on very short terms for almost nothing, and foreign governments are piling into the short duration offerings.

Why should you believe it if the folks with inside information do not?
--------------------------

If America has spent the last 30 years obsessing over houses and cars and the houses and cars are gone, what will replace them to create this new economic recovery? Cyber hacking? Sun tan clinics and hair cuts?

Anonymous said...

Cramer won't like stocks tomorrow.

This rally is a suckers rally fueled by Helicopter and Timmy but sadly at the expense of China. Thank you China! We love your money but we are getting a little tired of the products.

The question is whether China wants to continue to fund the party.

This rally will end when China says it ends.

I say it's over today!

Cramer won't like stocks from now on!

bank dick said...

"People who are invested are now printing money

People who are currently in US dollars are getting destroyed.

Whether they know it or not."
So tell us Keith, how is the Dow & S&P measured? That's right, dollars. The people who are invested may indeed be "printing money", but it's not going to buy them much when time comes to cash in their illusory gains.

keith said...

Exactly.

If you were invested (in pretty much anything) over the past few months, you (might have) kept your wealth

If you had your savings in dollars, you've just lost 20%. Or more.

Even if you don't know it.

And it's just gonna get worse.

Anonymous said...

I remember Cramer saying late last year that any money you need for the next 5 years, don't put it in stocks.

Anonymous said...

"...Can anyone explain what happened last Friday (5/29/09) in the S&P? ..."My understanding it might be a different story.

Anonymous said...

Keith,
Used to think you were pretty smart. Now I just think your full of crap. Jim Cramer told everyone to stay in Bear Stearns at 63 and it went to zero. For you to pimp him on your website is pathetic. The guy is a hypster and a fraud. Your bullish market call will look scary bad within 6 months. The market is drawing in all the wannabe's like you. Its doing a magnificent job and will provoide another incredible short opportunity in the not too distant future.

Grow up, Keith.

i've had it said...

Now you're telling us to listen to Cramer!? After months and months of telling us that Cramer was a turd?

What happened to the Keith we knew so well!

I stopped listening to Cramer. One day he says buy, the next day he says sell. One day he says the bottom is here, the next day he says the top here. One day he says the banks are going under, the next day he says the banks are solvent; ad infinitum....

Clearly he either 1) doesn't know diddly, or 2) has inside info and is day trading. Either way, I bet you'll lose with him in the long run.

You've been long this market for a while now, Keith, which is fueling your optimism. It's great you're making money, however, there's nothing behind this run except unfounded confidence speak from the power brokers, trillions in debt, and rigged trades.

It can't last. The time to short will be soon.

i've had it said...

p.s. -- why in god's name do you have ads on this site -- which is 95% male -- asking your readers "is your man gay?".

straight guys are not the audience for this type of ad and gay guys WANT their men to be gay so it's not appropriate for either of them. for the women here, sorry; this type of ad belongs on ivillage...

Anonymous said...

Cramer said to buy Bear Sterns last year at $65/share. A week later it was at $2/share. If you follow Cramer, you are impoverished.

Paul E. Math said...

I think the market is rigged.

What was that ridiculous spike in the last 2 minutes of trading on friday?

What was with the market today, rising 2.5% in the first hour and then staying there, perfectly flat all day long?

The stock market is now officially a pyramid scheme. The question is when to get out.

Fanny Alger said...

I love the picture you have up of Cramer with his housing bottom countdown in the background. So, only 32 more days until housing is at the bottom? Don't think so.

Anonymous said...

Bears to the slaughter as stock markets rally

THE reflation trade was on in earnest last night with markets ignoring the bankruptcy of General Motors and focusing on improving global economic data and the steepening US yield curve.
Technical analysts pointed to the S&P500 breaking above its 200-day moving average (929) as a major “buy” signal.

By the end of session it was hard to find any red anywhere as advancers beat decliners by five to one. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 221 points (+2.6 per cent) at 8721, the S&P500 gained 23.7 points (+2.58 per cent) to 942 and the NASDAQ was 3.06 per cent higher. It was all green in Europe also, with the FTSE +2 per cent, CAC +3.11 per cent and DAX +4.08 per cent.

The better-than-expected global economic data started in our time zone yesterday, with Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) beating expectations and starting a rally in cyclicals in the region. That cyclical rally spread to Europe, where commodity prices and commodity equities lit up.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25573890-643,00.html

Saul said...

No market goes up or down in a straight line. It is also known that bear markets have some of the strongest rallies. It was inevitable that there was going to be an upswing at some point, but picking it was "catching a falling knife" to use and overused phrase. It was looking at one stage like it was going to waterfall. 20/20 hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Kramer has also made some TERRIBLE calls over the last 3 years. I have also seen online someone who did a detailed analysis of what would have happened if you had followed his calls to the letter. The result - you would have made no more or less money than following a coin flip (which is actually better than I would have thought).

I would rather read the information about the markets and make my own calls than listen to him blindly.

Keith, I will however concede that the stock market movement yesterday (GM bankrupt = markets up 3%) was not what I was expecting. What it's doing is killing the bears who have been shorting the market. You have to view the market as being efficient at parting people with their money. It's now trying to catch a rising knife, if you like. Once all the bears have been killed and there are no shorts, and all the bulls are back in the market, then it'll take a dive. When? I don't know. I think volativity will come back a bit first. Some wobbles before the bang. Market manipulation complicates the story a lot.

michael said...

keith: "If you had your savings in dollars, you've just lost 20%. Or more."

if someone had $14,000 and it went down to $8000, that's a 43% loss. well, if it went up 20%, they'd be left with $9600.

if that person had gotten a $14,000 CD @ 4.5% interest, they'd now have $14,000*1.045^2 or about $15,000 half way through this year and be ahead of their friends!

I was lucky and shifted my 401k assets into low volatility stuff. I might shift some into higher volatility areas for a few months.

Mike Hunt said...

Keith,

On Jim Cramer, the phrase: "A stopped clock is right twice a day" comes to mind.

Rallies don't last forever and the dollar getting hammered doesn't last forever. Get ready for a pivot. Long term the dollar has very negative fundamentals. As it did a few months ago when it was rallying.

Just bought more SKF yesterday at $40. Let's see what this week holds. Maybe I'm early in my call and will get crushed. Hope not.

I'm betting on the rally taking a breather before rolling over, at least for a bit. Any news event could set this off, or just a selloff / pullback from all the gains in the market.

I'm taking your advice on pivoting quickly. This is not a buy and hold market.

-Mike

Anonymous said...

Get real, Cramer's a joke. He'll tell you not to buy something like LVS when it's $1.30. After it goes to $6 or so and all the folks in the know have raped the stock, he'll tell you to buy.

Are you going to back him up on his housing bottom call too? It's just days away!!!

Notice how he never, ever talks about his famous "just walk away from your house" video?

Cramer's nothing but a fair weather fairy that constantly flip flops for the camera.

Anonymous said...

Not enough talk about how much of a crap rally and crash this thing was. 10 cent stocks all over the place going to $5 while die hard blue chips were losing money.

Look at the utility companies right now, they're near 52 week lows. What kind of rally is that?

The ride down and the ride back up is nothing but a scam on the public by Wall Street. The volume tells the story. The power players simply quit buying and selling.

It only takes a small number of sellers or buyers to raise or lower prices in these circumstances.

sandman said...

Keith,

Let me ask again - without answer from you... yet,

You said SKF would eat the world and needed to be banned.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/23/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-fix-banks-dont-nationalize-them/

Do you still think we should ban it?

Thanks,

keith said...

If you buy any "ultra-short" or "ultra-long" ETFs, you are a fool.

Period.

Heads you lose, tails you lose.

These ETFs are scams and should never have been allowed by the SEC

swannster river said...

I got into stocks in Oct 08 after the first major crash. Things were great for a while but by early March I had received my ass gift wrapped (once again). But held.

I did finally punch out last week after a 40 to 70% recovery. I'm up 8-9% overall from October and consider myself content, and lucky. And now back to 'deer in headlights' mode.

Anonymous said...

Cramer is a GS-manipulated Howdy Doody:

Hey Buckaroos!

Guess what time it is?

Yes! That's right!

It's BRANDING TIME!

Now, jump on your trusty steeds and chase after those lil dogies that our pardners at Gubbermint Sacks have already corralled at the TARP Rally Ranch...!"

Anonymous said...

"Got to give the guy some credit, even if you hate him."

Isn't that also an implied stipulation for any lender participating in the Fed's TALF?

preston said...

It's still just a bear market rally, you are a dreamer Keith. One more leg up to pull in more of the gullible.

I agree about the double etfs - they are scams. Also, USO doesn't work - oil is up 50% since the fund started but any investor would be in the red.

Anonymous said...

You know. It's interesting.

Doesn't Cramer basically run TheStreet.com?

He's got some analyst that consistently bashes one of the two stocks I own.

CTIC

Funny that it has been the 2nd best YTD performer behind VNDA.

science teacher said...

Keith - I love DXO - double long oil - I bought on Feb 3rd at 1.91.

Today DXO is at 4.45.

That's 132% gain in 4 months.

Don't diss double longs.

Clearly you're one of those who bet on the wrong horse (i.e SRS or SKF right?)

keith said...

science - interesting on double oil. Most doubles or ultras that I've seen don't accurately track the underlying. Usually you see both the ultralong and ultrashort both down. Or you see the underlying up x and the double up 1/2 of x.

They're for day-traders, not investors.

Instead of these I prefer the underlying. No need to muck it up with ultra this or that.

But hey, it's all gambling anyway.

Anonymous said...

No mention of the equivalent of money printing with all these companies issuing new shares to raise money?

Who's expense was that done at?

gutless and lazy said...

As pointed out here, Jim Cramer also pivots on a dime, 10 times daily.

Unless you are a day trader, you rarely can keep up with his changes.

And he missed 4,000 pts on the downside from the peak.

He also likes cheap scotch on dirty kitchen floors. And HIGH t.v. ratings.

He is what he is. I can just see him if he was around for the bear market rallies of the 1930s. BUY, BUY, BUY!!! Yeah, right.

http://tinyurl.com/o9pey3

Anonymous said...

Cramer was a perma bull at DJIA 11,000. It's a lie that he told people to get out. In September, 2008, just before the DJIA did a nose dive he was screaming BUY, BUY, BUY. Here's a guy offering $1,100 to anyone who can prove Cramer told anyone to sell just before the big decline in the Dow: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rgrwf_zcmIg
See the PROOF for yourself.

Cramer did tell (for the first time) everyone to sell on October 6th, 2008, after the DJIA was at 8,500. He said he had spent the entire weekend thinking about whether he should tell people now to get out. He was only 5,500 points too late, a far cry from the 10 or 11,000 DJIA he's now saying he first told everyone (lying bastard). Why is no one calling him out on this???

I also remember Cramer still telling people to sell at DJIA 6,800. Do a little research on Cramer and you'll see that he's lying once again.

Anonymous said...

now way in hell housing will bottom this month ! wonder what excuse he will give in 6 months from now ? to much spin jim !!!!!!