June 16, 2009

Look real hard at this photo. See the green shoots? Come on, they're obvious. Oh, wait, you mean those are just weeds?


The next couple of months should be telling.

Either up, up and away.

Or down, down we go.

13% unemployment is gonna be rough.

Trillions in government cheese is gonna be good.

Put it all in a blender, and what do you have?

We'll soon find out.

Until then, I'm going fishing.

With popcorn.

Roubini sees weeds amid green shoots

The U.S. economy will not recover until the end of this year, and even then growth will remain meek and vulnerable to higher interest rates and commodity prices, economist Nouriel Roubini said on Tuesday.

Roubini, who rose to prominence for predicting the global credit crisis, tore down the "green shoots" theory that a rebound is imminent, saying there was a significant risk of a "double-dip" recession where the economy expands slightly only to begin contracting again.

"In addition to green shoots there are also yellow weeds," he told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York.

He pointed to the growing divergence between business sentiment surveys, which have been improving in recent months, and industrial production, which is down sharply and receded another 1.1 percent in May.

Roubini, the head of economics research firm RGE Global Monitor, said the U.S. jobless rate, already at a 26-year high of 9.4 percent, would reach 11 percent before it begins to ease. He added that he saw few engines for growth given that U.S. consumers are tapped out

As a result, Federal Reserve policy-makers, whom Roubini says completely missed the magnitude of the crisis at its inception, face an unenviable set of policy choices.

23 comments:

casey said...

I dont see anything but green shits.Dow 7000 here we go.I need more prozac today.All the bad news has got me down.

Stu said...

Keith, if CA were a country it would be the 8’Th largest country in terms of GDP. CA just went to the Fed and asked for a bailout today. They said "NO" initially, but we all know where this is going don't we? Well it just happens that CA is not an independent country and is part of our country; in fact CA represents roughly 40% of our countries GDP. We now know that CA is insolvent and $24+ Billion in the hole. We also know they have no chance of survival in their current form. Massive defaults by state government and massive program cuts are going to be devastating for them. Any chance of growth (or your so called green shoots) coming from this is all but remote at best.

The 13.4 Trillion in cheese of which you speak is not real money, but rather borrowed money from the US tax payers who are going to have to pay it all back with interest. So as we rob from Peter to pay Paul it will only result in a small blip upwards for the markets and even that will be mostly union and government work. The middle class gets virtually nothing from any of this money except for the bill that will come due.

So no jobs for most of us in the middle class (engine of growth for this country), higher taxes for all Americans but the lion share coming from the middle class (again we get porked). All of this happening while foreclosures spike, housing declines further and massive inventory begins to flood the markets.

How do green shoots sprout from this scenario?

Where are the sustainable jobs going to come from?

How much more can this administration foolishly borrow and print?

What happens when CRE implodes later this year and throughout next year?

What about the 100's of banks still left to default?

What about the auto industry or lack thereof?

There are no green shoots to speak off and no sustainable ones exist to be certain...

gutless and lazy said...

Obama to CA: "Drop Dead!"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31390835

Anonymous said...

Great Swann pic above the fold here.

http://www.thebigmoney.com/

vanilla ice said...

It's nice to see there are still some doomers and gloomers out there.

Anonymous said...

Keefer get a thread on the Cali bailout or no...can Obama do it hush hush so the other states don't know?
what do other states think?
Here in Cali, we know we're entitled to it...:)

Gas prices been going up for weeks said...

And then the US tax payer bailed out the Saudi queendom.

http://tinyurl.com/ljwonj

Al-bin-lunatic-bin-killing-tobe-king-bin-bailedout

You’re very welcome..

Duarte said...

It may neither be up-up-and-away nor down-we-go. It may be flat or relatively flat adjusted for us dollar values for fifteen years or more. In fact, it's a good bet. Keep measuring in dollars and feel rich while you can.

les said...

The Calif Assembly isn't even trying to fix the budget. I think the Assembly is confident that when Calif defaults on its bonds or shuts down the govt, Obama will come to the rescue.

It will be a game of "chicken".

Obama flinches every time.

Miss Goldbug said...

Oh oh... faux "green shoots" stock rally is fizzling out...

Anonymous said...

The only thing ahead for USA is massive pain.

The REAL unemployment figure now closer to 20%.

California broke and destitute but still supporting the illegal alien felon invaders wholly and soley.

Wait until all the dullards in the UAW lose their phony made-up 'severance' packages.

GM & Chryselr dead and to be stripped of anything valuable, the rest of the crap including the numbskull workers out in yesterdays trash.

Very few in the world want what america can offer like crooked real estate industries, bad cars, dishonest insolvent banks, cheesedoodles and Wal-Mart peddling lead-based chink toys to children, an absolutely corrupt drug industry, felons roaming free to rape and pillage, many of them elected officials, an absolutely stone useless attorney general like Holder, Mozilo, Pankit and Lewis still taking breath, hmm, I'm just about out of energy to go... Oh yes, and the once-in-a-lifetime savior, young Benito MoaBama..

America, Land of Nothing and
Nobodies.

Crash, Burn, Death.
Summer of Rage 2009.

Anonymous said...

Of course, those are green shoots of the imaginary kind.

Wadda you expect ?

People chose the easy way out and elected a man who said he understands the problems with the economy is related to far too much debt and is now engaged in borrowing GINORMOUS amounts of debt to finance his pet projects.

So now we've got the easy way to get everything we ever wanted.

Why worry eh ?

Its not our problem now, is it ?

Our children, grandchildren, great grandchildren and probably great great grandchildren will SPIT on our graves for the damage being done to a once great country.

Green shoots ?

Yeah, right.

Keep on smokin that dope.

And you green shoots guys, remember to put that on your gravestone about how proud you ARE for your contribution.

You elected into office, a Messiah who had an answer for everything.

Nice job.

Give yourself a pat on the back.

Because you might have wasted your vote on a loser like Ron Paul.

fat amelican said...

Obama didn't tell CA to drop dead. No, like a true Chicago thug, he showed Governator the marker. If CA wants cash, Arnold had better head to DC with his kneepads and a long list of tributes available to Obama and his soldiers.

6% of nothing said...

Green shoots...Sounds like some dreamed up marketing ploy & buzz word to make it all disappear but it will not fix anything. I agree that the "responsible" middle class American is going to get the shaft when the massive cheese bill comes due and as far as a rebound in auto's or housing ....forget about it because neither represent a value to the buyer so they can keep'em.

Anonymous said...

.

Obama to CA: "Drop Dead!"



California to Obama: "You First!"




.

Anonymous said...

.



How's that 'Hope and Change' werkin out for ya?



.

Anonymous said...

This 'Clown' we have in office doesn't have a CLUE!

Anonymous said...

Unemployment is currently 22% per shadowstats.com and will likely top out at 35%. This will absolutely kill the US dollar. Withing 3 years we will default. It hath been foretold. Unrecoverable economy. Built on sand (credit).

Anonymous said...

Another Suzzane special!

RayNLA

Anonymous said...

"...what america can offer...crooked real estate industries, bad cars, dishonest insolvent banks, cheesedoodles and Wal-Mart peddling lead-based chink toys to children, an absolutely corrupt drug industry, felons roaming free to rape and pillage, many of them elected officials, an absolutely stone useless attorney general like Holder, Mozilo, Pankit and Lewis still taking breath...Benito MaoBama..."

Heh.

"This sucker's going down."
-detached retiree psychopath waltzing off into the sunset

Anonymous said...

I thought you said last week that we were in HOPE

Anonymous said...

Saw an ad for refinancing house on TV. Did not show huge McMansion, but simple split level from early 80's. Painted pretty and all, but nice change.

Miss Goldbug said...

Anon said:"Unemployment is currently 22% per shadowstats.com and will likely top out at 35%. This will absolutely kill the US dollar. Withing 3 years we will default. It hath been foretold. Unrecoverable economy. Built on sand (credit)."


I agree, it's going to be very bad in three years.

Pandemonium come Dec 2012. Wait, isnt that an election year as well?

The trifecta will be upon us: election year, Great Recession and the end of the Mayan calendar.

I predict gold will skyrocket within the next two years.