November 19, 2008
Memories, Sweetened Through the Ages, Just Like Wine. Here's Peter Schiff's Greatest Hits
Schiff got what would happen 100% right.
Just watch this video. Watch how dreadfully wrong Ben Stein, Tom Adkins, Arthur Laffer, Mike Norman and the talking heads were. Wow. Especially Ben Stein. He should never be allowed near a TV set (or your money) again.
That said, Schiff nailed what was happening, and what would happen. However, his prescription for how to protect yourself was wrong. So far. Foreign stocks have been destroyed. Gold is down. The dollar is up.
But just wait. I have a feeling he'll be right in the end. Very right.
Prepare for the next wave.
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20 comments:
Yes, he was right on big debt. But he didn't put the housing bubble in enough context -- avg houses selling for more than 10* avg salaries, sale price much higher than rental revenue, etc.
Also, as you mention, his recommendations for protection were not as profitable as a seer would be expected to be.
Great reminder of his correctness, tho.
Keith.. You keep missing it. As a pundit he is correct as a financial manager. Awful.
So what if you are eventually right if by then you lost all your clients cash before that time.
Damn that is jaw dropping at just how right he was and how wrong EVERYONE else was. Not only that but they couldnt even debate the issue without resorting to mockery. Where did they find these clowns and what are they saying now?
Keith a gold bug?
Say it ain't so !!!
OH the Horrrrrrrrrorrrrr!!!!
Welcome to the real world keith.
Oh -
Got Food?
not a gold bug anymore. was during the hyperinflation. but during this depression deflation, it's cold hard cash.
but...
wait for it...
when the NEW hyperinflation starts, a year from now, two years from now, whenever that is... THAT's when you'll call me a goldbug again
Ok keith...we will see about that...
you watching the TNX and spreads on CMBX and ABX?
That says deflationary depression or more specifically DISinflationary depression...
Ahhh...but is it?
When the petro dollar crashes...and it will...because of peak energy (oil)...
You can expect gold to rocket.
And not in 2 years...
maybe 2 months...
maybe
It seems perhaps Bernake had incredable foresight, and knew in June 08, with commodities going wild (blogosphere geniuses also going wild), that it would soon pass, and that deflation was the right thing to be combating. His foresight probably saved the world economy a lot of pain.
I think he deserves some credit. Correct me if I'm wrong.
But just days ago the genius class on this site were bashing Schiff?
DOPES
Schiff was right about many things, but he didn't see the implosion of commodities and the strengthening of the dollar. Who could have (George Soros didn't see that part either).
I image his fund has suffered lately.
wow Peter Schiff is a modern day prophet. It's amazing to watch this knowing what we know now. I was on the fence about Peter before seeing this summary. I'm getting all of his books, he may be off in the short term w/ his investments, but long term he will be right.
Now Stein is an intelligent design fool, however he did at least say he was wrong and Schiff was correct in a later article: http://tinyurl.com/58egwx
Whereas Tom Adkins just lies about his previous claims and pretends he didn't say real estate was going to keep climbing 10% a year.
I can forgive a mistake, it's the pretending you didn't make the mistake that doesn't cut it.
Too bad we dont have Greg Swann on video!
I think that Peter's only mistake was being too focused on the USA.
(As was I). Boy, did he nail what was going on in the US or what? Who thought Global Deflation, Global Recession, Global Depression?
I loved the way he stood his ground against those laughing fools!
So, what do you do when the ship's sinking and (as we now know) the lifeboats are leaky? Around and around I go and keep ending up thinking gold will be the only thing in the end. And, like Keith...cash and patience are called for now.
By the way, Peter has a brand new book out:
The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down (Little Books. Big Profits) by Peter D. Schiff (Hardcover - Oct 6, 2008)
"...Too bad we dont have Greg Swann on video!..."
"YOU ASKED FOR IT."
"...What I wanted to talk about was being unchained, the state of being unchained...you are free forever...the kind of attitude that I want to convey to all realtors, all lenders, all real estate professionals everywhere..."
So full of himself he's gonna pop; starts breathing heavy near the end.
Save it with Download Helper.
Did you know that bloodhound reality started out putting one PAW in the water, and that there's no one better than them for SNIFFING OUT a deal.
I love that theme building. I think I speak for all of us when I say, Ya just can't get enough of it. Swann is a genius!
Ben Stein wasnt an arrogant SOB about it all though. His apology just cements his character. I am saddened to hear he got hate mail - as for the others, bring it on
Incredible. Just incredible evidence of how far down the path of denial people were. The unsung tale is the derivatives market unwinding. Derivatives are terrifying. These central banks are hiding mind-boggling losses in the form of failed derivatives paper. Who knows how much that comes to. It's incalculably complex and astronomically high. These talking heads' faith in derivatives calculations made by the financials they loved so much like ML, Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns and the other banks are what made the subprime market look like such a "small blip". Every 500,000 dollar mortgage was getting multiplied by 20 in derivatives gambling. "Astonishingly well managed companies"? Those gigantic sums of money are suddenly gone and these entities bankrupt. Heaven help us if the amount of money lost is really as high as Peter Schiff thinks. Buffet and Gross put the price tag at 516 Trillion Dollars.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/derivatives-new-ticking-time-bomb/story.aspx?guid={B9E54A5D-4796-4D0D-AC9E-D9124B59D436}&print=true&dist=printTop
duarte,
The coming derivatives explosion will be like an atomic bomb compared to an M80 in a trash can (sub prime).
Scientists thought the Atom Bomb could have caused a chain-reaction explosion that could have destroyed the world. It didn't but, it blowed up real good.
Ben Stein is an Ivy League alumni with some Hollywood strings, that's all. At least his other Yale counterpart, Bob Precher, has been taking some sense all these years about the economy.
I hadn't heard any earth shattering revelations from him in ages. He also helped to try create a karmic link between Hurricane Katrina/N.O. and our decadent culture but then failed to include New York, Amsterdam, and Rio in his 'Sodom and Gomorrah' theory since those places have even more licentious activities going on. Nope, no earthquakes for those sin-loving towns.
And finally, Issac Newton was an authentic, believing Protestant Puritan but unlike Big Ben, Newton did real science, not speak about intelligent design based upon his personal feelings towards Atheists in academia. Newton had already survived an English Civil War based upon Christian denominations bickering (Puritanism vs Anglicanism), the last thing he needed was for it to cloud over his career. And what's the moral here?... that scientists can both believe in god and accept the fact that science can explain natural phenomena w/o needing to interject divinity at every axiom or pivot point along the way.
Stein is useless. A product of failed pseudo-intellectualism for a conservative era.
Actually, gold has performed the best. Compare S&P YOY to gold.
In a deflation it is possible (though unlikely) for gold's nominal price to go down for a long time, but its buying power generally increases nevertheless.
By the way if you abandon the artificial COMEX gold price and look at actual physical gold (the REAL hedge against systemic collapse), prices for common bullion coin are still around or over $1000/oz.
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