Market is up now four sessions in a row. I don't think that's happened since about 1964.
So... year-end rally, or right back to the depths of hell?
2008 is still on track to be the worst year in the ENTIRE HISTORY of the stock market.
Get your predictions in now... Dow year-end, are you buying or selling, and also what's in store for 2009
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25 comments:
can it beat 1929? Surely THAT would be the worse year in the entire history of the market?
In terms of a one-year drop, this one is the worst
1929 - 1933 was the worst period. But 2008, congratulations, is the worst year ever
Unless of course we get a December rally
Also, when you look at one-year-drops of over 40%, in every case (except 1929) the next year was followed by a rally of over 20%
So, what will it be? 1929-1933, where a big drop was followed by another big drop? Or more like other sell-offs - big down followed quickly by big up?
Time will tell...
And no, I have no idea.
.
Back to the depths of hell.
.
p.s. So the bailout of Citi was basically a bailout of a Saudi prince (largest shareholder). Our taxpaying dollars are bailing out a Saudi prince, right?
The dollar is off its recent highs in the last few days. If it keeps on sliding that could really upset the markets.
Every bear market has its rallies, this is no different. It might go on for a few more days due to short squeeze. Good time to sell.
Its hard to predict when you don't know what is driving the market.
It certainly isn't the macro-economy which is in the tank. I thought the 100 point stable trading range was 7000 to 8000.
But the government steps in every time to "jolt" "the markets", so it is imprudent to be exposed right now.
Shorts beware, they can crush you at any time.
Market by 12-1: 8700
by 12-15: 7900
by 12-31: 6700
Seems everyone (even the bears) expects a year-end rally and bulls are out in force so I'm thinking that won't happen. My guess is choppy range-bound activity through end of year, rally in Jan and then new lows when reality sets back in as the economy gets much worse in 2009.....
Oh it's so nice to have witnessed the worst one year drop. Totally deserved too. Too bad the Fed and Treasury won't let the Dow fall to 3000 where it should be if they didn't keep propping up the market. Bastards.
My prediction:
DOW: 7000
S&P: 650
Gas: 1.90/gallon
I'm stumped:
The economy is worsening. Consumers have just started to cut back. Many companies are going to go under. If corporate bond yields are at over 10% (Heinz?) why would I buy the stock?
I also think not all hedge funds have liquidated (something about 30 to 90 day clauses).
And I also think we're going to see, in the next few months, quarters, people liquidating their retirement funds to live. That's not good for stock markets.
On the other hand, the institutional portfolio managers have not changed their style yet and they still need to be fully invested. Most are still convinced there's never been a better time to buy. I get this feeling there's going to be a huge asset mix rebalancing before the final collapse in the spring. Let's say your fund was 60(equities)-40(bonds) before the market collapse, if you did nothing, your equities are now at 43% and bonds at 57% for an overweight of 17%. Bonds have had their run, everyone is now saying that yields should be increasing so PMs are surely now thinking of selling bonds and redeploying in equities.
Any thoughts on this?
I don't expect the market to really tank until after the inauguration. That said, I also think that the end of December will be bad when the dismal Christmas sales numbers come in.
2008 will be the last year you see DOW in the 8000's. It may also be the last year you see gold in the 800's.
Numerology: Cantonese number 8...
sudden fortune, prosperity
It's the end of the 8's I'm afraid.
(I don't know anything about numerology...but just now I needed to look up number 8)
As far as coal is concerned:
KOL
I have a prediction: volatility.
I predict the market slides next week, rallies the week after and then rallies into the new year.
Rational:
This week's rally was due to manipulation by the PPT enabled by low trading volumes during thanksgiving week.
Next week's slide will be due to higher volumes from investors returning from thanksgiving holidays reacting to dismal initial black friday sale results.
The rally for the rest of the year will be due to the automaker bailout passed through congress on the week of the 8th and then more PPT manipulation enabled by low volumes during Christmas holiday season.
Just throwing it out there - let's see if I get any of it right.
I have a little more detail to my prediction about the automaker bailout but that's enough for now.
Oh, and one more thing:
Death to all turkeys! May we feast on their roasted corpses!
May we cut off their heads and their feet and scrape out their visceral organs!
May we cram the empty shell of their rib-cages with a mixture of sauteed onions, bread crumbs and spices!
May we hack them to pieces and feed them to our children as we uncomfortably converse with the in-laws we detest!
Allahu Akbar! Death to all turkeys!
Neither. Great Depression II.
Send a thank you card to:
President George W. Bushco
The Greatest American who ever had a sewage treatment plant named after him, EVER.
Choppy rally through early 09. Grim economic reports brings DOW to new record lows after that.
DOW/gold go 1:1 (I dream).
Here are my predictions, worth at least two cents:
The first week of December will see markets decline to new lows and then we'll see a huge, mind-boggling rally through year end as inflation expectations jell and everyone realizes they better buy a piece of something before their sidelined cash loses half its value.
The Fed and Treasury will use this market rally to paint a glowing picture of how successful their crisis management skills have become, and Obama will take office riding a high of good feelings all around.
2009 will start off strong and then the economy will falter when oil hits $100, then $150/bbl as the USD rolls over. By April we will have a currency crisis and I fully expect a huge shake-up and revaluation for the USD when the G20 meets again. We'll probably get a new currency to replace the dollar along with strict currency controls for "national security" reasons. It will become nearly impossible to move money out of U.S. banks without a TSA pecksniff's approval.
Bottom line - get your cash & equivalents out of USD holdings and into hard assets by next April. If you plan to expatriate any money, do it NOW.
The SOW is in the process of retracing it's parabola. This Bull began in 1982 at DOW=800.
Adjusted for inflation:
Dow=2300 in early 2009.
Joe M.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081127/meltdown_coming_soon.html
Commercial real estate trails residential by 5 quarters typically. Bernake changed the game a little bit by putting the fed money in front of common shareholders instead of preferred.
"Aliens" has a line that sums um my view on this:
Ripley: These people are here to protect you. They're soldiers.
Newt: It won't make any difference.
I look at this as a great buying opportunity for SRS and SKF - maybe SCC. So long as you're able to be long on the shorts and not using margin it's just a matter of waiting even if it doesn't crash on Monday. The house always wins.
It's a real decision point for the gov't. If the Fed changes tactics again we'll have a monstrous crash as the losses overwhelm institutions and faith in the ability of the fed to stop the fall evaporates. If the fed commits to this course as losses mount say hello to inflageddon. I don't know if congress will let them do that. It was one thing to backstop institutions, taking the bullet for them is quite another.
Shorting FTSE/Xinhua is also starting to look attractive - only question is which economy is going to implode first. The Brits have it bad, and China is revving up the presses.
http://tinyurl.com/673r5n
http://tinyurl.com/63rpgq
Also - this may answer some of Keith's long-standing questions on the question of gold.
http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2008/nov/2008_nov_25.asp#mn
I've heard interesting predictions lately around the word "hyperdeflation" - in which asset and currency values fall simultaneously. It can appear as biflation (where assets purchased on credit fall but commodities rise), but there are critical differences.
http://tinyurl.com/5dfcce
http://tinyurl.com/5fqvrv
Got popcorn?
anon@2:24
From what I've read (meaning people I trust who understood a crash was coming), hedge funds are about 50% done deleveraging.
Also, as to retirement divestment to live on: people who have taken paper losses will do everything they can to avoid that until they're truly desperate or have lost complete faith in the system. I think that will represent true despondency on Keith's chart (side note - capitulation for individuals may come at a different point in time than capitulation for institutions and funds). I've been taking money out but that was in better times when stock prices were higher (jobless recovery my shiny metal ass...). People may start cashing in bonds before despondency though.
I also agree with the others - there will be volatility in a moderate range with occasional spikes and dips outside that (gov't interventions and panics, respectively). There will be squeezes. And I think a rally through the end of the year is certainly possible.
To rephrase Mellon - liquidate banking, liquidate real estate, liquidate the dollar; purge the rottenness out of the system. Just leave the farms and labor and we'll get back on our feet.
Dow close 08 under 8500
Dow up 1st half 09 to 10K
Dow close 09 under 5K
2010?
Got food?
Is this a new Obama Hope Bubble.
News sucks, no one is spending, and the inflation bomb the new administration is arming will tank the dollar.
Dow 5000
Oil $200
Or the exact opposite. Who the F#ck knows any more.
Doubled my money on Fannie May. way over sold at .30 now .74 This is how I am playing this market
GOLD 4000+ 09
Hey Keith here's your rally:
Worker dies at Long Island Wal-Mart after being trampled in Black Friday stampede
http://tinyurl.com/5opfv3
File this one under Americano Snapper Turtle and DIE U PIGS
Worst drop in the entire history of the US stock market? I would call that a nice start.
Welcome to the Libertarian New World Order. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.
Yes, god DAMN president-elect Barr and those dastardly Libertarians now controlling Congress!
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