See ya 2008.
You sucked.
But oh, wait until you see 2009.
May you live in interesting times.
So, what will it be?
A) We keep crashing
B) Things settle down
C) Off to the races with 0% and trillion dollar money bombs
December 31, 2008
2008 was one of the worst years in the history of real estate and stock markets. Big shocker, eh?
See ya 2008.
You sucked.
But oh, wait until you see 2009.
May you live in interesting times.
So, what will it be?
A) We keep crashing
B) Things settle down
C) Off to the races with 0% and trillion dollar money bombs
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56 comments:
it'll keep crashing. 2009 will make 2008 look like a sunny day at the park.
We keep crashing. For sure!
Here in Atlanta, a couple of weeks ago there was a story in the local paper (AJC) that noted there were 148,000 housing lots currently available in metro Atlanta. These are lots that have been graded with plumbing in the ground, but the projects were halted because of the housing collapse.
Folks, in metro Atlanta, we've got a long way to go-DOWN-in home prices.
And lots of foreclosures to come.
Thanks to all the mo****F*****g people who made all of this insanity possible. Have a happy new year!
B) Settle Down.
Doug Kass always has some interesting ideas. Regarding 2009, here are his "2009 Surprises"
http://tinyurl.com/9v26a6
1. The Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs are found to be large investors with Madoff.
2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected.
3. The nation's commercial real estate markets experience only a shallow pricing downturn in the first half of 2009.
4. The U.S. economy stabilizes sooner than expected.
5. The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year's first half.
6. A second quarter "growth scare" bursts the bubble in the government bond market.
7. Commodities markets remain subdued.
8. Capital spending disappoints further.
9. The hedge fund and fund of funds industries do not recover in 2009.
10. Mutual fund redemptions from 2008 reverse into inflows in 2009.
11. State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom.
12. The automakers and the UAW come to an agreement over wages.
13. The new administration replaces SEC Commissioner Cox.
14. Large merger of equals deals multiply.
15. Focus shifts for several media darlings.
16. The Internet becomes the tactical nuke of the digital age.
17. A handful of sports franchises file bankruptcy.
18. The Fox Business Network closes.
19. Old, leveraged media implode.
20. The Middle East's infrastructure build-out is abruptly halted owing to "market conditions."
"leaders" will get us into WW3.
gutless and lazy said..
"2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected. "
Gutless, you started drinking this early?
It's only 11:59am (EST) as I write this on New Years Eve.
Which market?
Stocks? Up, at least for the next 3-6 months. We are already in a nice uptrend
Commodities? Stabilize and start to make a new uptrend. Watch oil - when it bottoms commodities have bottomed.
Housing? Rate of downtrend in bubble markets begins to slow. Rate of downtrend in some markets (NYC in particular) continue to fall. Maybe stabilize by end of 2009.
Bonds? Treasury bonds are the most important mover next year. Their bubble pops and everyone is *shocked* as usual. Corporates are already depressed.
The Dollar? Resumes its descent prior to 2008.
Things will settle down for the first three to six months of the year, with periodic market rallies as the govt. manipulates the financial markets to jump start things; just like they did yesterday by officially announcing the Fed buyback of worthless loans so there could be an uptick to the market at the end of the trading year with the hope this upward manipulation will continue in 2009.
Housing continues to implode the entire time.
Then we go into a market tailspin again in late summer and fall.
Dow falls to 7500 or below.
S&P falls below 750.
Dollar down.
Commodities up.
Precious metals up.
Consumer staples up.
We keep crashing. 2009 will bring the end of federalism, as political leadership in the states fails. The federal government will begin to be overhauled to accomodate an increasing number of functions it will take over from the states. Roads and bridges, for one. Prisons and education will be two more. The federal government will be an active member of the boards of many corporations, and the US will enter an era of state capitalism. Taxes will increase, "free trade" will be replaced by managed bilateral and multilateral agreements on specific forms of commerce. The economy will stabilize in 2010, but it will be a whole new world, with brand new rules.
Actually it wasn't the worst year in the history of stock markets. But because you and your readership are intellectually incurious, you will never know that.
You also didn't say which stock market you were referring to. No big surprise, since your "topics" are only meant to encourage your emotionally retarded readers to continue behaving badly.
yea but gas is cheaper.
b. We will continue to crash
It is unavoidable.
OBR - Great way to cheer lead the market, never heard a person who had a stake in the market say it wasn't going to get better in 3 to 6 months.
keep crashing.
markets always over correct, there is no soft landing.
Why doesn't anoyone rejoice over the fact that 2008 was the best year for cash, savings and frugality? For the first time in decades, the one with the most toys did NOT win and can be heard crying uncle. Consumerism is moribund, the two-digit "true inflation" is gone, and housing is no longer the fetish.
I'd say that 2008 was a wonderful year for sanity. In contrast, 2006 and 2007 brought into popular Russian language the words "korporativ" (a corporate party), "glamur" ("glamor" derived via French with blurred meaning - the consequence of the proliferation of boutiques, I guess) and "bonus" (we had the word "premiya" since the Soviet era, but "bonus" appears more... motivating) - evidence of the "office plankton" class submitting to the wildest hallucinations over the "trickle-down" petroroubles. Now the self-correction is underway as more realistic valuations are attached to everything.
So much for a New Year address. :) Happy "Winter Solstice Holidays" (or whatever it's called in your area)!
A.
New lows will be reached in 09, but it will be a choppy decline rather than a crash.
Cash will continue to be king; gold will begin moving in for the top spot.
IGNORE THIS POST!
More bad news coming.
IGNORE THIS POST!
vanilla ice said...
"OBR - Great way to cheer lead the market, never heard a person who had a stake in the market say it wasn't going to get better in 3 to 6 months."
Your point being? I buy when I predict something will go up in value. My predictions, thus, should be the same as what I own. What's wrong with that? How do you invest/make predictions?
Anonopuss 5:32.......then why are you here moron?...if your so intellectuality smarter than the rest of us, don't you have better things to do than come to this blog.
Happy new year asshole!
Just watching CNBC and they had another six percenter on. When she was told that economists were predicting that home values in bubble towns like Phoenix would not rebound for a good decade she said that economists never know what they are talking about.
Worthless corrupt scumbag Realtor. They just will not stop !! I got so mad I changed the channel. The main street news source is such a JOKE !
Happy 2009
C and then A
It's all over . Alt -A comes and that's the final slug. TKO.
2008 Didn't suck at all for me.
Sold my house in 2007. Went to cash and metals/foreign currency trades in all accounts.
Got thousands of dollars in CD/money market interest and capital gains that I'll need to pay tax on.
Got a hefty raise and a job contract renewal into the new year.
Made progress on professional certification and skill building.
Helped keep the fascist republicans out of office.
Kept my living expenses very low, so I accumulated MORE cash.
Started carefully buying cheap stocks with healthy dividends in Oct. (Might sell again if market gets ahead of itself and another massive stimulus becomes unlikely.)
We may see one of the biggest EVER stock market years this year...
Keep on keeping on. Crashing, ie.
I agree with walk in park comment.
I dreamed at age 6 (1950) that in 2009 we'd be in another Depression.
At age 8 I dreamed it was called the Greater Depression. Beginning at age 3, I began to dream of feeding people and even a class mate came to school one day in 1959 and said she'd dreamed everything fell apart and I was feeding people. Not the glamorous life a teen dreams of, but I've accepted the inevitability of it by now.
I've dreamed of strangers digging in a garden I'd planted and eating the food as they dug it up. Pity us
Lord.
Grandma PKK
Did you guys see sir charles barkely got popped for a dui in scottsdale.He blew a stop sign and the gilbert pd was quick to stop him.all this dui stuff has become a cash cow for local authorities.You have a couple beers and according to them you are a reckless driver, bullshit.We have to change these laws or simply outlaw alcohol sales at bars and restaurants totally.this is just stupid.the pigs sit outside bars and just pluck people off for haveing a couple beers.
Everyone take a stab at this. I will try to post a spreadsheet with everyone's predictions and come up with a scoring system.
My Predictions:
December 31, 2009:
Dow : 7200
S&P500: 840
Oil : 80 ($ per bbl)
Gold : 1350 ($ per oz.)
DX-Y : 56 (US Dollar Index)
Case-Schiller 20: 150
Obama Approval Rating: 55%
For Reference:
December 31, 2008:
Dow : 880
S&P500:
Oil: : 40 ($ per bbl)
Gold : 880 ($ per oz.)
DX-Y : 81 (US Dollar Index)
Case-Schiller 20: 160
I expect double digit inflation due to the fed's wreckless policy. The stock market will probably double to 18,000. I see gold priced at $1,600.00 per ounce and oil at $150.00 per barrel due to geo-political tensions.
Housing will go back up to unsustainable levels due to being artificially propped by the stupid government. I see rents on the increase, and public riots due to double-digit inflation and unemployment, except in the health care field.
The healthcare and funderal industries will see double-digit growth, as will the police and security industry. Violent crime will double because those left out of the job market will get their food and shelter: the easy way or the hard way.
Our economy has shifted away from manufacturing and services. It now depends on asset appreciation.
(Sorry, reference numbers were not complete)
For Reference:
December 31, 2008:
Dow : 8800
S&P500: 906
Oil: : 43.6 ($ per bbl)
Gold : 880 ($ per oz.)
DX-Y : 81 (US Dollar Index)
Case-Schiller 20: 160
We keep crashing. Everyone keeps saying, "things aren't nearly as bad as they were during the Great Depression. Stocks haven't fallen that much. Unemployment isn't that high." You know what the difference between now and the Great Depression was? We've thrown previously unheard of amounts of money at the problem. That has put the brakes on the problem. But it isn't going to fix the problem. We will see 20+% unemployment, but it's just going to take us a while to get there. We will see DOW 4,000, but it's going to happen slowly over 3-4 years.
Things will continue to crash next year.
But 2008 didn’t suck for us. We adopted our beautiful 2½ year-old daughter this year.
When it really comes down to it, that is all that mattered this year for us.
Happy New Year everyone!
-Mammoth
OBR - My point is that from your name it looks like you are involved with investments of some type. Therefore you want that investment to go up in value because you'll make more money.
And I agree, the stock market will go up in the new year. We've got president Obama to save ourselves from ourselves. But that won't last. The foundations of our economy are getting pummeled.
What's smashing it's way through our economy?:
- Banks taking more losses from people walking away from their homes, homes the debtors never owned in the first place. This disaster will spread to other types of loans like construction and business. Banks don't want to lend now. Despite the best efforts of the criminal Fed and Treasury Departments, why would banks want to in six months when the risk is even higher?
- Rising Unemployment.
- Fed inflation makes everyone feel a lot poorer, because we will be, causing people to spend less.
- State and local governments are too tapped out to help stimulate their economies.
- We aren't creating assets in this country like we used to. I've heard somewhere that one point over the last decade finance made up 20% of our economic activity. How much productivity and long term wealth can come from people simply moving money around?!!
- We're liquidating our country in the name of "homeownership" and "too big to fail."
Now I'm really pissed.
As a result 2009 and 2010 will be the worst years for the economy since the great depression. After that we will finally get our heads on straight and start paying for all our debts and stupidity over the past decade.
If there is some positive market condition to counter all the negative conditions above please tell me. I wish we hadn't gotten into this mess, but here we are sinking together.
Well let's try to enjoy this disaster the best we can. Happy New Year everyone! Have fun tonight!
You got it right Keith.
HI TOOLS!!!!
SORRY I HAVE BEEN BUSY!!!!
JUST WANTED TO STOP BY TO WISH EVERYBODY A HAPPY 2009!!!!
I ASKED SANTA FOR A SHINY NEW BARRETT .50 SNIPER RIFLE, BUT NO DICE!!!!
ANYWAY, I THINK 09 WILL BE ANOTHER DOWNER YEAR (FINANCIALLY SPEAKING)!!!!
SO BE IT BITCHES!!!! AT LEAST THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE CAN HOPEFULLY LOOK BACK ON A HAVE A NICE LAUGH!!!!
HOPE TO WRITE AGAIN SOON!!!!
NITWITS!!
HALFWITS!
TWITS!!!!
TOOLS!!!!
DOLTS!!!!
DOPES!!!!
HI TOOLS!!!!
I LIKE THE IDEA CHSLAXCOACH!!!!
PUT ME DOWN FOR THE FOLLOWING!!!!
DOW 7,500!!!! (MAY GO AS LOW AS 6,500 DURING 2009 BUT FINISH AT 7,500ISH)
S&P 500 750!!!!
OIL $75/BBL!!!!
GOLD $1,500/OZ!!!!
PX-Y 60!!!!
CASE-SCHILLER NOT DISCLOSED!!!!
OSAMA APPROVAL 40%!!!! (BECAUSE THE "CHANGE" AND ITS EFFECTS WILL NOT HAPPEN BEFORE THE END OF 2009!!!!
AGAIN HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!
WAIT . . . I HATE NEW YEARS!!!!
TWITS!!!!
TOOLS!!!!
DOLTS!!!!
DOPES!!!!
@anon 6:44....i second that!
Market will go up until Alt-A starts defaulting and investors wrap their brain around the fact that this chunk of the market is MUCH larger than subprime.
Don't forget, most investors in the market probably falls in this Alt-A category and they have yet to realize to what extent they're screwed!
" The healthcare and funeral industries will see double-digit growth "
Ha ! Ha ! .... The Funeral Industry will be fine !!
Health care will see growth , but cost that will over burden the whole system and collapse.
WAKE UP
Putting in my vote for a continued crash, although it does amuse me how many analysts are trying to say that stabilization is right around the corner when everything is still in freefall.
Happy New Year to all!!
Congrats on your newly adopted daughter Mammoth!
And Remember---
"Take time to appreciate the little things in life....Someday we will all look back and realize that they were the BIG things"...
Bernie Madoff doesn't remember a damn thing about his billions, but I betcha he can still remember the first person he swam out to as a lifeguard in his teen years...........
PEACE
ALT A and Prime Default waves will take this Mother OUUUUTTTT...
It will be all over but the cryin, and houses will be as cheap as a bottle of wine.
I don't think people will be giddily looking forward to welcome in 2009 tonight when the ball drops..... Maybe there will ne sighs of "noooooooo" once the ball starts dropping.
happy new year to you keith thanks for the new blog can't wait till the sitcom really starts and watch the press coverage it gets lets see we have blago causing trouble jews getting pissed off it's about time global warming on the ropes that really is about time and that's it i guess i thank the lord for my life
We are going to party like its 1929!!!!!!!!
Here I am watching Ryan Seacrest "Rockin Newyears", and realizing that people like Lionel Richie are the last hope for America.
Beginning of WWIII.
WWII is what brought us out of the Great Depression.
The powers that be have us set for a repeat.
In 2009 we may see the Treasury bubble pop. And when it does happen, it will be ugly! As usual, we will hear stories about how "nobody saw this one coming", "financial experts are taken by surprise".
Our government is living way beyond it's means, they are even talking about modifying mortgages that a third party owns under the guise of "national security", and spending even more money. Under such circumstances, you would think only an idiot would lend Uncle Sam one thin red cent. Right? But the exact opposite is happening.
Bonds will fall in value and interest rates will go sky high.
The economy will keep going down until the United States somehow gets the Corporations to return to manufacturing in the United States and brings back good paying jobs .
The incomes of a Nation must match the costs of the Nations goods ,which includes housing .
Globalism is find and dandy as long as the import taxes level out the playing field . To think the the Powers did not notice that a Global trade and Job Market would only make the rich richer and would not uplift the lives of the workers Worldwide .
I predict that Americans will revolt and demand jobs and realize that Corporations took away the American Dream by going Global with cheap labor and manufacturing .
The PR campaign is that Americans need to come down in pay scale ,and in some cases this is true ,but you can't say that the American wage has kept up with inflation the last 10 years . You can't say that benefits have not been taken away from the American worker . Only a few sectors of workers have kept pace with inflated prices from Corporations and the rest of the workers became debt slaves to keep up or went lower in lifestyle .
America would have to go back to a closed economic system in order to solve the current problems .
I remember when I was young I found out that people in Japan didn't buy American products because their government made sure that the import taxes were such that imports were more expensive .In America ,we allowed imported cars to be cheaper than American cars until foreign cars gained a foothold .Now all the products from other countries are a monopoly in America .
The return of Bonnie & Clyde...
Is recession behind spike in bank robberies?
Bank robberies in New York have risen 54 percent compared with last year, with criminals committing more than 430 in the past 12 months, according to the New York police department.
“As it stands now, they’ve turned [banks] into virtual cash machines,” New York Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly said.
Bank robberies are also up in many areas across the country, including San Diego, California, and Houston, Texas, federal law enforcement experts told CNN.
America would have to go back to a closed economic system in order to solve the current problems
-------------
It will surely try. That's what it has done in the past.
Problem is that today US is a net importer of oil. If America closes its borders, it will need to rebuilt its manufacturing base, which is hard to do when you have to import the resources to build them and your borders are closed!
America can't default on its debt. China will make sure of that. That is why America will be forced to print money out of thin air and the ROW will approve.... 20% of 1 trillion is worth more than 0 with a default!
What makes me smile is the number of posters who still think the ride will be smooth on the way down.
Amazing.
A....we still have a way to go.
Back in Oct 1929 didnt everyone think things would recover the next year? Didnt the President, and the bankers say so?
Look at history to get the answer.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow anywhere between $5,000 and $10,000....and I think both extremes are quite possible. Yes, I realize it makes me look like a dufus to quote the Dow instead of the S&P 500...so there! I just think it's more reader friendly.
anton chigurh
fka keyser soze
Happy New Year to all!
Tyrone - I'll be fine with that as long as all the bank robbers look like Faye Dunaway circa 1968.
Anton Chirgurh
Move over Bonnie & Clyde; who needs the bank notes?
Boom in Counterfeit Money as the Economy Collapses
.
Keith,
It's CrimePanic...
Economy Down Theft Up
.
Do you have any idea how bad the employment market is getting? Real estate is tied to the employment market. Many of these newly unemployed will be losing their houses.
The stock market is tied to earnings, and ratios indicate it is still overpriced, even using last year's earnings. It is not going to be a goog first quarter.
In Las Vegas, nobody got it in '08. It's such a transient town that everything has a transient feel about it. Nothing lasts, including failure. Tomorrow is always a whole new world.
Los Angeles is another thing. One good EQ and things will go tilt. Las Vegas would love it because so many Angelinos would move over here. One good riot in LA and LV will benefit. Not so the other way around. Can't see people fleeing LV for LA.
Anything bad in LA usually benefits Vegas.
Dollar down.
Commodities up.
Precious metals up.
Consumer staples up.
---------------------
This is exactly what I see happening in the upcoming year. Right now, I would be investing in oil and gold if I had the money.
By the way, consumer staples are more than just food and energy. It includes the pots, pans and utensils you use for cooking. Even the clothing you wear and computers used to access the Internet. Guess what? We don't make that stuff! So who's the next Saudi Arabia?
There has been a massive shakeout in China that started with the hedge funds buying up the oil and metals. Thousands of factories closed because they couldn't afford the materials and labor to make their goods. But those that survive won't have the competition. Of course, all this will be easier to understand when you see the $8.00 price tag on a single 60 watt light bulb at Wal-Mart.
Got clothing?
wow, sure didn't see 2008 turning out the way it did! ;)
it came out of nowhere.
"it came out of nowhere"
"everything is still in free fall"
BULLCRAP!! Have you seen the change in LIBOR in the last month? Seen the change in the TED spread in the last month? Credit crunch is OLD NEWS. NOT still crashing. Sometime soon, very possibly in January, it's going to be "everybody back in the pool" in the stock market. And you'll be shorting against 3%, 4% gains EACH DAY. (For a while at least.)
Instead of just paying attention after a crash month like October, PAY ATTENTION ALL THE TIME. Then maybe you'd have noticed that this was playing out SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2007---we're MORE THAN A YEAR further along than you think.
And government policies have their ENTIRE WEIGHT leaning direction against a further collapse. They are practically making a collapse illegal!
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