IF YOU HAVEN'T GOTTEN OUT OF US DOLLARS, DO IT AS QUICK AS YOU CAN.
THIS IS NOT A DRILL.
IT'S TIME TO TAKE RISKS AGAIN.
THIS IS A WATERSHED MOMENT.
THIS IS THE REAL DEAL.
MOABO.
MOABO.
THE HELICOPTERS HAVE ARRIVED.
December 16, 2008
MOABO
IF YOU HAVEN'T GOTTEN OUT OF US DOLLARS, DO IT AS QUICK AS YOU CAN.
THIS IS NOT A DRILL.
IT'S TIME TO TAKE RISKS AGAIN.
THIS IS A WATERSHED MOMENT.
THIS IS THE REAL DEAL.
MOABO.
MOABO.
THE HELICOPTERS HAVE ARRIVED.
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77 comments:
Shouldn't the dollar be on fire?
Vanilla - for the first time in the history of the blog I have to give a reader an F
Please go read the Bernanke speech again. Slowly.
The dollar will now be destroyed.
Do you guys know how difficult it is to wipe your ass with a dollar bill?I just tried it and some overwipe on the hands, not good.
Anyone want to start a ponzi scheme?Seems like that is the best way to get rich.Chuck ponzi would be proud.
Definitely time to move out of the short-term treasury mutual funds but into what?
GLD
OIL
DBA
SLV
guns
bullets
bread
Are there any safe havens left?
I've been writing HP and S&A for over three years. Over 5,000 posts.
This is the most important post in the history of the blogs.
Buy everything you can. If you have cash, ask yourself why.
The panic selling is now over.
Panic buying is now here.
There will be ups and downs, but we hit bottom. Do NOT fight this fed. Or Obama.
And for god's sake, get out of dollars.
I don't need daily updates. but it hath been foretold.
buy everything? like what food??? what do you mean??
I disagree, although I may be wrong.
If you’re going to ride it out, I say ride it out in dollars.
If the world economy existed independent of the US, I might say yes, but it doesn’t.
The whole world is in a mess, and our mess is tied to their mess just as their mess is tied to ours.
In a lake full of sinking ships, I still think the US is the one that’s going to sink last. Things may be bad, but the US is strong relative to everyone else.
Keith, is it still too early for buying a house?
Keith, are you saying the fed is going to "devalue" the dollar like Mexico did years ago?
If this happens we will have a civil war! Period!
Keith,
I'm on the same page as the anon --- What do you mean by "buy everything?" Are you suggesting the dollar will soon be monopoly money and we should buy things we might actually need, or are you suggesting buying assets now, because you believe inflation will make them worth more later (or am I totally lost here?)
OK, let me amend my comment.
When I first read this I thought you meant “get out of US currency and securities in favor of foreign securities and currency”.
If that’s what you meant than I disagree as stated in the first part of my comment.
If you’re saying to buy stock because we’ve probably hit bottom; then yes, you are probably right.
Why does every tax related picture at CNBC have Casey Serin in the caption?
Here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/27647497
or here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/28240476
You have just witnessed a historic and potentially fatal devaluation of the US dollar
Why?
To save America.
The Fed needed to dramatically devalue US debt, while at the same time increasing the value of held assets (stocks, houses, 401k's, etc). In addition, this drastic devaluation of the dollar makes US manufacturing more competitive.
We're still just minutes into this. There is still time to react tomorrow.
I could be wrong. I don't think I'll be. I read Bernanke's 2002 speech, I've been waiting for this day, and now it's here.
ZIRP + helicopters.
Game over.
Checkmate.
I'm buying everything I can (that I've been researching and analyzing for a long time to get ready), and my goal of being 100% of out US dollars by the end of the year has just been moved to tomorrow.
Good luck out there everyone.
You're going to need it.
Here it is folks. The talk will become headlines.
Dollar Devaluation To Fix The Great Recession
Frank Beck, 12.09.08, 01:00 PM EST
A quick dollar devaluation would work wonders for submerged borrowers. Don't kid yourself: It could happen.
What began as government social tinkering--with implied threats to banks and mortgage companies to extend home loans to even the most marginal of borrowers--led to a greed-blinded mortgage banking business and the meltdown we are experiencing today. Now we are asked by the same congressional leadership to go along with taxpayer-funded bailouts of the very banksters who, while making millions, created the mess.
http://tinyurl.com/62dvsv
As Fed Slashes Rates, Gold's Appeal as a 'Stateless Currency' Rises
Gold prices rose Tuesday ahead of the Fed's meeting and are likely to continue pushing higher after the central bank's extraordinary decision to set a range for the fed funds rate of 0% to 0.25%.
Now is a great time for investors to do some "bargain hunting" in gold, says Leanne Baker, managing director of Investor Resources LLC and a former all-star mining analyst at Salmon Brothers.
i see you have now stolen drudge's emergency light i liken this to throwing a shoe even two shoes at bush an email has been sent to matt but for know i made money today with drys a dry shipping company don't thank me now
Smoke and mirrors - this is what the Fed is doing. They are powerless to this crisis. And desperate too. 75 pts cut. So what ? i'm gonna have a better paying job or more food on the table ?
Pathetic attempt to revive the dying economy.
Maybe Obama will change the system, will bring heaven on earth (like in your dream :))
You used to support Ron Paul, am I right ? Pretty huge differences between Obama and Ron, dont you think ? Why you aren't keeping your head up & straight, just because a bunch of millions of sheeple voted wrong ?
My friend, we still have a fight (get rid off the Fed and the rotten Reic system), put the right man in charge of these - Ron Paul. Let's keep fighting ..
All due respect, Keith, I read and enjoy your blog. But didn't you call MOABO back in May 2008?? Sure as **** am glad I didn't listen to you. LOL.
I personally think it is too late for the Fed to devalue the currency and try to inflate our way out of this. Besides they've been on this insane dollar devaluation kick for over a year. What is it, $7 trillion in financial bailouts now?? Today is just another push in that direction, it is nothing new.
Deflation is here and as the Great Depression has shown us, it just doesn't go away overnight. We've gone over the cliff. They could mail every taxpayer in the country another $1000 and we'd still have deflation.
Those assclowns at CNBC always crack me up!
Bwahahahahahaha!!!
BTW - Here's a great video from some real American heroes that were warning of all this long ago:
U.S Economy : The Philosopher's Stone
i would now say that ben is no longer helicopter ben but daisy cluster ben
You may be buying, but are you holding, Keith?
I just talked to Suzanne. She told me it's a great time to buy and they're not making any more land in California.
Can the US "consumer" take on more debt, or is the Fed just pushing on a string?
May '08 was moabo?
Today is moabo. period.
May '08 was do your research
Today is deploy.
But again, I could be wrong, very very wrong.
You are the master of your domain. Do your own research, make your own decisions.
I've made mine.
Moabo.
Hey Keith riddle me this:
If deflation is "always reversable" in a fiat system, exactly why then hasn't Japan "chosen" to eliminate it?
By the way, you GOTTA love Rick Santelli @ 3:00 in the video!
He is my latest hero of the Greatest Depression.
Think about some of our elderly: they were born in a Depression; they will die in one too.
I meant the picture of the dollar shown on the thread post should be shown burning, started by Bercracky with a flamethrower.
I would be smirking like the cnbc talking head idiots except that I will not get a pay raise to go with this inflation.
The wealthy are saved, thank goodness for Ben.
Its a good thing that only liberals engage in class warfare!
I think that the fed's ZIRP action today will have a short term positive effect; I don't see any sustained rallies though. I think this is a trading market, not an investment market. Pick your stocks, track them, do the historical research on them, and then go long and sell with a small profit, or short and then cover with a small profit.
and then repeat. repeatedly.
my feeling is, like others, that we have gone over the cliff economically and we will be in this severe recession for a while. if we used the same methodology to measure unemployment today as the one used during the great depression, we would be at 12% unemployed...that's half the rate of the great depression's rate.
look, the fed can try to re-inflate the economy (assets) but with companies taking a chainsaw to its staffing roles and commodity inflation raging the consumer is basically going home and staying inside. since consumers account for 70% of the economy we're screwed.
so, to sum: short term upside here. as keith said, don't fight the fed (unless you know what you're doing...i actually shorted some stocks near the end of the day). eventually though, this rally will fail and we may re-test 8,000 on the dow, or even lower. market is likely to go sideways, relatively speaking, for a few years. housing prices will continue to go down...there's no stopping this since the laws of economics and mathematics say housing will revert to the mean...that means quite a bit more downside.
commodities seem like a good play since they are inflating so much (minus energy); gold seems like a good bet too but it's a bit high now.
by the way: the Fed SUCKS!
wtf does out of dollars mean? Besides gold and guns and peanut butter what are you all talking about.
Rick Santelli is a captive voice of reason at CNBC. That's why they never let him in the studio.
So, Keith, you have given me permission to go to Guitar Center and buy one of everything, right?
Clerk: "How are you going to pay for that, Sir?"
Me: "Are you still taking these silly green pieces of paper?"
Get away from stocks.hide your money in a box in the ground.When people are in soup lines you will be thankful you have something besides a worthless stock certificate from home depot.
Again! No matter what u do, it's going to be the same s*it. The Fed's desperate move is an admission that the economy is in deeper trouble than anyone could imagine. I see no sign of the beginning of a recovery b4 2012, just when Obama will be due for re-election.
The Fed just declared war on the rest of the world. The rest of the world won't sit idly watching its dues evaporate overnight. The average American consumer will suffer even more as a result of this stunt.
Mark this: Bernanke will be shown the door before his term is up (he still has 2 more yrs).
wow did you see obama get a little testy told reporter don't waste your question almost thought a few shoes were going to fly
Didn't think I would ever see Americans like Santelli so cheerful about the destruction of the USD.
While I'm in GDX and PBW, I'm still not sure the rest of the market is full of winners. Reading the fed's statement explaining this historic rate cut, it looks to me like the US economy is completely screwed.
That's my translation of the fed's statement today: "The economy is screwed in an epic, never-before way so we're going to drop interest rates in a never-before way."
The fed may succeed in destroying the dollar but may not necessarily succeed in reviving the economy. Hence the GDX.
Here's a wrinkle in the "Buy everything now!" thinking: many other financial systems are on their way to ZIRP. It's just that Bernskankey and the U.S. system reached it first. AMERICA WINS! USA! USA! USA! Gold medal to the Yanks... Oh wait -- make that a "poo ticket" medal.
But seriously, Oz has cut its federal funds rate from 7.25% to something like 4. (I don't know it exactly because I don't keep much money locally.) Japan has stayed low; Eurozone is cutting to keep pace with the U.S., China's trying to inflate... Only New Zealand has a half-decent federal funds rate, and those sheep-molesters don't have a big enough economy to pull off a carry trade.
What if EVERYONE decides to be ZIRPy, the pinheads? Those of you who believe in conspiracies like the Bilderbergers -- wouldn't the international bankers act in concert? If all fiat money is equally TP, does it make a difference? If we're ALL Zimbabwe, NO ONE is Zimbabwe.
People have to buy their daily bread with something. A guy with a meat rack full of hamburger isn't going to let it rot because there is no paper currency that suits his taste. There's not enough gold around to run a world black-market monetary system. Plus, you show up at the butcher with a Maple Leaf, the guy at the meat counter isn't going to know what to do with it.
Money is a concept. If every monetary system is buying into the same myth -- "INFLATE LIKE HELL TO FIGHT DEFLATION!" -- then it doesn't matter that it's all fairy tales.
P.S. I didn't read HP often enough, so I though MOABO was "Mother Of All Bail-Outs."
Jesus Fucking Christ, calm down Keith! Bernanke can do whatever the fuck he wants but he is not going to be able to overcome this world deflationary spiral! Inflation will not be an issue for at least a few more years!
Deflation is here and as the Great Depression has shown us, it just doesn't go away overnight. We've gone over the cliff. They could mail every taxpayer in the country another $1000 and we'd still have deflation.
Agree! Couldn't say any better!
Buy everything??? I think it's not Keith. I think his blog has been hijacked.
Good luck with that!
Buy a house or be priced out forever!!! Buy, Buy, Buy!!!
Keith! You must be busy buying, but can anybody help me locate Al-Zaidi's shoes? I want to buy those shoes and I want them badly! In a few years, they will be worth millions--about the only asset to have right now as a great investment!
More seriously guys, whatever you do, stay the hell away from financial stocks!
Bernanke threw the kitchen sink at the shorts and now they're on the floor bleeding while he grins in front of the cameras...
Big deal, none of the fundamentals have changed. The shorts will be back next month to mount another attack during hedge fund redemptions and managed asset reallocations.
ATTENTION KEITH OR ANYONE CAPABLE OF ANSWERING FOR THAT MATTER:
"To save America.
The Fed needed to dramatically devalue US debt, while at the same time increasing the value of held assets (stocks, houses, 401k's, etc). In addition, this drastic devaluation of the dollar makes US manufacturing more competitive."
Please explain how this cheapens our debt and increases the value of assets. I want to understand the whole mechanism involved in such a process. What underpins this manipulation of the system? I understand how this makes us more competitive vis a vis manufacturing and exporting, but how does devaluation cheapen debt and boost asset prices?
Thanks to anyone with the patience to describe this to an apparently ignorant girl.
Keith is right - get your holdings out of anything tied to the value of the dollar. For the next administration the only way out is through, and they have to devalue the dollar as it is the only course available. If they succeed we will still have a country and functioning government. If they fail, Obama, Bernanke, Paulson and the rest will be swinging on ropes.
Keith, with all due respect, I disagree with you 100%. The Fed is scared to death of a deflationary depression and I think we are headed that way. There is nothing the Fed can do to stop it.
Asset prices have reached such an insane level that they need to come crashing down. There is no freaking way to inflate our way out of this mess! None!
Let me give you an example. There are so many overvalued properties for sale here in Chicago. In my little neighborhood (Ravenswood), three unit buildings still have an asking price of $599,000 to $899,000! I did my analysis and concluded that just to break even, the price should be $180,000 to $230,000. Also, a commercial property is being peddled for $1,900,000. Once again, by crunching the numbers, I concluded that a fair value should be $400000 to $600000!
Keith, stocks, bonds and real estate is so damn overvalued! I can't imagine if they can go higher. Plus you add to the fact that consumers, businesses and the government is so much in debt, how much higher can prices go? Even if the Fed succeeds in creating inflation, who in their right mind will buy a 1600 square for house for $699,000 (that is what some fools are still asking for in my neck of the woods!)?
There needs to be actual productivity to support such high prices and we don't have it. I see prices coming crashing down. I am banking on a deflation. I have made my bet and I think I will come out ahead!
Keith is definitely right about this one. Today was a watershed moment for the dollar.
More significant than the rate cut is the fact that the Fed announced a massive debt monetization program (ie swapping crap debt for freshly printed dollars). If you look at past cases of hyperinflation/currency collapse, they all began with debt monetization.
Those who say the Fed is powerless to stop deflation clearly do not understand how a fiat monetary system works. The fed can create 100 trillion dollars just as easily as it can creat one dollar.
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Guess what the next shoe to drop is?
Yep...
Got that right.
(asks sheepishly)
Keith-- what does MOABO stand for?
"Are there any safe havens left?"
That is a damn good question.
We still be in deflation for a while. As long as banks aren't lending cash will be fine. Eventually they will start lending, that's when all hell will break lose. I am accumulating PM right now. Maybe a good time to get rid of financial stocks while they're on an upswing.
We are in Deflation...because all the Dollars WE use are now Gone with the wind. Madoff madeoff with 50 Billion dollars gone...along with Trillions of dollars gone. I don't think there is a printing press fast enough to keep up with the loses. Keep watching the job losses...We will still need the dollar to purchase good and services. We are in a Major Depression. Gold and Silver are good, but its good to have Cash on hand as well. Good Luck...Will Inflation kick back in like everyone is saying...in time.
After thinking about the Fed's MOABO today a bit more I'm feeling more confident that this will only have a temporary positive effect. Even this evening, 2.5 hours into trading in Asia and the markets are up only nominally in response to ZIRP.
The Feds action actually reveals something all of us Sashers know: we're f**ked; royally f**ked; royally straight flush f**ked.
The Fed is freaking out. Only a Fed that is freaked out could do what it did today. Remember, Japan did ZIRP too and nothing happened for years. In fact, once things started turning around there they then went south again. Their stock market has not recovered since the 90's crash. Today, it is at the same level it was around 1983...that's right...1983.
Twenty five years later and the Nikki is worth diddly squat. And think about all the manufacturing and goods industries they had to pull themselves out of the doldrums too. And now think of America; we've got NOTHING to lead us out of this mess.
Finance: gone
Real Estate: gone
Heavy Mfg: gone
Light Mfg: pretty much gone
Customer Service: gone
Autos: gone
Technology: mature
BioTech: can't lead
Pharma: in decline
The only thing I can think of that could help lead the way is traditional agriculture and frankenfoods.
Yes, the more I think about this situation and the Fed's Money Bombs, I just can't see how they will work in the long run. In fact, they are more likely to do harm, and potentially a lot of it if they don't manage the increased money supply the right way (by reducing it at some point down the road by buying back what they've given to the banks). The Fed's next step is to buy distressed assets from Fannie, Freddie, AIG (they just did) etc. All types of asset classes too. More evidence of how much they are in a panic.
I just don't think this will work in the end. Ultimately, people have to have confidence in what the government does in response to this crisis. I think, though, that many ordinary Americans are coming around to the conclusion -- or will soon -- that the government has its head up its ass. The uselessness and/or danger of ZIRP and buying up toxic assets will finally hit home with people after not too long of a time.
Once they come to this realization, it will breed insecurity; and this insecurity will breed people to save (a good thing), lower the overall economic activity, and induce hoarding...exactly the opposite of what the Fed wants.
Once the number of people who think like this grows to a material level, we will have reached the royally straight flush f**ked endpoint.
I'm going to out on a limb and make a prediction: market wakes up to the reality that ZIRP is really ZIP and sells off today's gains by the end of the week, or before Xmas.*
* my personal opinion; don't trade on this.
Keith, you sound like f*ckin' Cramer!
I would have thought you would have seen this as panic not a buying opportunity!
**** NEWS FLASH - RED ALERT ****
The next shoe to drop has been identified as:
'The risk of sudden collapse of all capital-based pension systems.'
In March 2009, when pension fund managers, pensioners and governments will become simultaneously aware of the fact that the crisis is there to last, that it coincides with the « baby-boomer » generation’s age of retirement and that the markets will not resume their 2007 levels until many long years (9), chaos will flood this sector and governments will reach the moment when they will be compelled to nationalize all these funds. And Argentina, who took this decision a few months ago already, will appear a pioneer.
Full Article
1. ok, I give up...
wtf does moabo mean...
never heard it before and I've been all over these collapse blogs for 2 years...
2. where do we go... what does your research indicate... everything I look at is scary -
physical gold? - gov can easily confiscate...
land??? - overpriced and you have to pay taxes and manage it...
houses - catch a falling knife and become a flipper or a landlord???
stocks??- earnings are about to collapse
rice/beans/guns/ammo - yeah, some are good but what do you do with 5 tons of rice???
Keith, care to share what you are going to buy?
I have to say, I agree the dollar is doomed, but I don't think it is doomed yet. We are ahead of the global meltdown. Russia is about to implode, the EU is in serious trouble. There will be another flight to "quality" run and the dollar will rally huge. Commodities will crash and that will be the bottom.
As for this rally, I have some stocks. I will sell out of the money calls against the ones that I want to keep and keep the huge implied volatility premiums. I will unload the rest.
The depression is getting worse by the day. What Ben did today was meant to restore confidence. How anyone can have any confidence in him is beyond me. The rate cut was meaningless, the buy any securities was very meaningful, but they've been doing that for a while and it has amounted to shit because it's not enough to offset the massive deleveraging that is going on.
Tom
I think I am going to sit this buying opportunity out. They'll be better ones next year.
The dollar is headed down no doubt, but so is the stock market
after this bear market rally ends.
Happily hiding out in cash and gold.
Range of 0% to .25%? Is that like "Offers entertained between $749,000 and $799,000?"
I'm not going to give any individual stock picks, so that we don't have to suffer the daily updates from daytraders, but here's a few things to consider doing with your increasingly worthless green pieces of paper
This is just the "G's":
1) guns
2) gold
3) guitars
4) gems
5) german houses
6) gas
Go do your own research. see what the 'experts' are saying. see what S&A'ers are saying. See what Denninger and Roubini and Schiff and Kass and Fleckenstein and all our other favorites are saying. Put it in a blender, and come up with a plan that works for you.
But like Schiff said the other day, it's like we had a nuclear explosion when it came to the dollar, and everyone was running toward the blast. And now, they're going to find out that they were running the wrong way.
MOABO is OBAMA's destitute brother who lives on $1 per day in the slums of Nairobi and doesn't receive a dime from his kickback taking corrupt politician of a sibling from Chicago.
For what it's worth, looks like Cramer is on board with me:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=967866479
Again, don't listen to one source. Listen to many. And you're master of your own destiny, you have nobody else to blame - or credit.
Anon girl, here you go:
"Please explain how this cheapens our debt and increases the value of assets. "
- Let's say you owed someone a million shiny beads, because they took shiny beads as payment for that new car they sold you. But you had a machine that made more shiny beads for essentially no cost, so all you do is make a million shiny beads, give them to the person holding your loan, and presto! you got a new car and essentially gave them nothing - just a million shiny beads that you made for nothing.
We owe the world trillions of dollars. So now the Fed will just print 'em up, at no cost, and presto! We bought all that stuff (oil, cheap crap at walmart) and gave the stupid foreigners nothing of value.
In terms of increasing the 'value' of assets, Bernanke's move does nothing of the sort. He simply is raising the price IN DOLLAR TERMS that must be paid for assets. The value stays the same.
But the sheep will see it as "value". Their 401k's will go back up. Their home's "value" will go back up. And they'll be all happy and warm again.
Silly sheep.
And the silliest sheep? The one with a bunch of US dollars sitting in the mattress (or in t-bills or in savings accounts, which essentially pay the same interest).
Cash was king. Now cash (US dollars) will be trash.
"MOABO is OBAMA's destitute brother"
On the lighter side and echoing Billy Bob Carter....
Obama's Hillbilly Half-Brother Threatening To Derail Campaign
http://preview.tinyurl.com/66nz6b
"Go do your own research. see what the 'experts' are saying. see what S&A'ers are saying. See what Denninger and Roubini and Schiff and Kass"
Please,Denninger? that guy is a narcissist and loves to scare and brainwash the sheeple ala Jim Jones.not calling him a liar but he exaggerates.
Schiff? he hates the government and wastes no chance to show that on his interviews.not calling him a liar either but he also exaggerates.maybe because the government has his father locked up in federal prison?
I only listen to Roubini and Jim rogers,they call it like it is.they both say it's going to get worse but it not likely that that will be the end of the world,the economy will recover.so no need to bunker down.
and that's the reality...
Denninger is still sucking on his momma's tit.
He should try reading once in a while....and start with anything Heinberg has written.
:'(
I pray you colonists are going to make it.
Keep your heads up friends.
DONT CHASE THE EURO its moved from 1.25 to 1.40 in short period of time, it will pull back, likely to 1.35. Dont buy the panic. You have opportunity to get in at better prices.
First of all, with hyperinflation stocks tanks because companies can't adjust fast enough.
The economy tanks.
People hoard.
There's really nowhere to hide.
People can't afford their houses... they are torn apart to sell the parts. Aren't houses in Detroit selling for a few hundred $?
During the Weimar Republic times, the ones who made out like bandits were those who got their money out of Germany.
So you've got to convert your dollars into a currency which will not be impacted by the printg press. Does one actually exist?
Attache ta tuque!
Mother of all buying opportunities?
Get in now on your piece of the Moon!
The Center for Lunar Property Allocation has been granted authority by the Fed to begin selling parcels of land on the Moon for a fixed price per square mile starting January 1, 2009.
The proceeds from the sales of these parcels will in turn be used to purchase earth-based non-performing debt of financial institutions by the fed.
To purchase a parcel, a potential buyer must only provide proof of existence in the form of a stool sample, a fingernail clipping or a lock of hair from the head or other part of the body. The buyer will then receive a funds transfer from the Federal Reserver bank to their chosen account from which they can then pay the Center for Lunar Propery Allocation. This one-time (essentially no-cost-to-the-buyer) opportunity will only exist until all lunar parcels have been sold or the deadline for sales has expired (deadline as of printng is December 31, 2009).
This is the MOABO. Get in now! They are not making any more land on the moon folks!
Some people have already gotten themselves into some nice "Craters".
A spokesman for the CLPA was quoted as saying "If you don't get in now, you'll be priced out of the market forever. The lunar economy is 'cratering.'"
Don't ya'll think we have one more bottom to reach in the short-term?
We have all seen the psychological behavior of the market after 1) a big rate cut and 2) earnings reports.
Well we've just seen the mother of all rate cuts and annual earnings will be dreadful. Should be awful market perfomance until spring.
Especially when the realization kicks in that the Fed has ran out of bullets and can only throw the gun (read - print, print print)
they both say it's going to get worse but it not likely that that will be the end of the world,the economy will recover.so no need to bunker down.
----------
I'm optimistic too. It's going to be great for the few hundred million who'll be around in a hundred years.
Right now, I'm just somewhat concerned about whether or not some of my genes will make it there!
Keith, with all due respect, I disagree with you 100%. The Fed is scared to death of a deflationary depression and I think we are headed that way. There is nothing the Fed can do to stop it.
Of course they can stop it. They are not playing by the rules. They can print money and buy stocks (or whatever). They are making this shit up as they go and will do whatever it takes. The deflationists assume they will follow attempts to inflate by LEGAL means. They won't. They will do WHATEVER they have to, and hide it from the American people (and the world) under the guise of National Security. Inflation it will be.
yup, the stocks i sold short at the end of the day yesterday paid off this morning. i bought to cover a few minutes ago and locked in a gain of 1.5% in funds invested for less than 45 minutes.
this is a trader's market...long-term holders will either get nothing or get screwed.
chslaxcoach said...
"So, Keith, you have given me permission to go to Guitar Center and buy one of everything, right?"
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Don't buy Mackie products...all their crap is made in China!
The deflationists assume they will follow attempts to inflate by LEGAL means
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Bingo!
not yet. we haven't seen people completely throw in the towel. I suspect the markets will rally a bit then sell off in a major way. then it will be moabo
Keith, I watched the Cramer video. He sounds even crazier than usual and doesn't make any sense at all.
Let me expand on my comments on the Cramer clip.
Cramer is advising people to buy real estate because of low interest rates. You and everyone here should understand why that's foolish talk. There was just a study last week which showed definitely that low interest rates were not correlated with increased real estate transactions.
Cramer still erroneously believes that declining RE sales is the root of the problem. I would argue that decades of declining wages and the debt-fueled consumption binge were the root. I don't think we'll see prices stabilize until wages go up and savings are restored. There's no sign of that happening. In fact, unemployment is accelerating and wages are being frozen. On top of that, we're about to have a crisis in pension funds and in unemployment insurance.
Zirp was not the solution in Japan, and it's even less likely to work here.
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