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The Public is still back in Denial. They way the BS is flying my guess is that some of these idiots are telling themselves that when someone comes to foreclose on their house that just means it is a great buying opertunity. Oh, sorry, that also applies to market analysts. If we had a legitimate gold trading market gold would be at $2k.
I think we are entering into the fear stage. Last night we balanced the bank accounts and we are doing good. I then asked my wife how many others are doing as good as us and we don't think its many. Most people don't have any money left over at the end of the month or are or have been living off of credit. I know many people who have not worked for several months. I hear fear in peoples statement in public places. Im doing the worst thing in this period, I have money, but not spending a dime and saving everything I can.
" Mammoth said... On top of all the present economic woes...
Black Swan Event in the arab world = cutoff of most oil production
= empty shelves at grocery stores
= PANIC"
Great Post! Thanks!
Another Goodie! Thanks!
Anonymous said... The Public is still back in Denial. They way the BS is flying my guess is that some of these idiots are telling themselves that when someone comes to foreclose on their house that just means it is a great buying opertunity.
Go to any gun store and see if you see a consumer pull back. I stopped into a gun store a few days ago to buy a box of shells to go deer hunting and the place was packed. Lots of folks buying guns and they did not look like the hunter type. FEAR maybe I just thought man this place is nuts.
Personally I think we are in line for a decent stock rally.Everytime I go out I see no signs people are hurting.Brewery was packed yesterday for the football games.I am trying to look toward the positive side.Yes I do own a house and down in value.I will not send the keys back no matter how low it goes.All this panic creates opportunity.You need to think long term.all this doom and gloom bullshit is getting old.What happened to mother of all buying opportunities last week.Is there something I missed here?Get some balls and buy a house or some stock.Or ARE YOU GOING TO MISS THE NEST BULL MARKET AS USUAL AS YOU SIT AROUND AND PREACH THE END OF THE WORLD CRAP.
In Russia the October/November events were a reality check. Reality was denied at first (stock market bottom-hunters have rushed in, quadrupling the number of Internet trading accounts as if they bet on a V-shaped bounce), and that qualifies for DENIAL. But wait! When you see crowds lining up into currency exchange outlets to get out of their roubles you can't mistake that for FEAR. Shall the positive feedback loop continue, we'll be into DESPERATION by early 2009 and a full-blown PANIC by the next spring. The question is how long will the eventual bottom take. I'll not disclose what the uneducated quack-analyst in me suggests at this time but I have a scenario to play. :)
We are definitely past the panic point. We've had lots of capitulation but maybe not total capitulation just yet. Despondency is "depression of spirits from loss of courage or hope; dejection". It and depression are nearly identical in definition so I don't know how to differentiate them.
So I would say we are either near the end of capitulation or already past it and into the early stages of despondency/depression.
To match reality to this graph, we must assume events of the last 70 years are so will continue in the foreseeable future. IMHO, I believe will see a vastly different future from that of the past 70 years where energy is abound and plentiful. This economic malaise and at some point on the graph "panic" will morph into a depression. The contraction of debt and energy use will flatline this graph sometime to come.
I think many people experienced financial "panic" at some point last year. But, they have retreated back to the "denial" comfort zone (aided by anti depressants, increased alcohol consumption, MSM reporting that the worst is over etc,).
My favorite denial line Re: the 40%hit people took in the market this year: "I'm dollar cost averaging, so I will benefit in long run." Yeah, lets put pencil to paper to see how that's working out for you...(I've yet to have any takers).
"all this doom and gloom bullshit is getting old.What happened to mother of all buying opportunities last week.Is there something I missed here?Get some balls and buy a house or some stock.Or ARE YOU GOING TO MISS THE NEST BULL MARKET AS USUAL AS YOU SIT AROUND AND PREACH THE END OF THE WORLD CRAP."
Hee hee, based on this comment I would say the 'desperation stage'.
Based on discussions with family and a look at the market, prices, contrarian-worth magazine articles, etc, I think October was panic, the second drop was capitulation and the christmas season has given us despondency.
There is more cash on the sidelines now than there has been since 1982.
My husband just ran out to buy milk. He said the cops are all over the place. Someone just robbed the bank down the road. That's only 1/2 mile away. At least there are still cops.
i would say that we are in fear. for the most part amongst my acquaintances and friends there is fear of what is to come but we all have been relatively untouched by the unfolding events.
But that will change in 2009.
Amazingly, a lot of people think that BO will be able to fix things that this whole mess is due solely to what Bush has done (or not done).
Everytime I go out I see no signs people are hurting.Brewery was packed yesterday for the football games.
-------------------------------------
yea, I know what you mean. I went to Stanfords for dinner the other night (tuesday evening) and it was packed but yet the waitress handed everyone a $20 off coupon for their next visit. weird.
Central Coast California: In between denial and fear. I spent the Holidays in the SF bay area and it is definitely still in denial. 36 people at dinner, overwhelming denial.
October/November was the panic. It will be followed by a 2009 winter/early spring technical (bear market) rally (20% bounce off lows) and followed up by a "Dead Economy THUD" for the rest of the year.
For the last 16 months been paying off as much as I could then 3 months ago as I wondered if we would crash I started buying supplies like some "Tin Foil Bandido" you know guns, silver and food stuffs.
Honestly wish I had started sooner...You can actually taste the fear where I'm at and about 90%of the people I work with make $100K plus.
I never do the overtime but I've been lucky as to not be under as much pressure as them...I've tried to help or give suggestions to close friends but just like with the housing market they refuse to want to see.
It's going to be BAAAAAAD!
Sadly enough we need a kick in the ass to understand things and appreciate what we have...Too bad it's the poor and weak who suffer first.
No Mad Max future but I do see us as Argentina 2.0
We're still in the anxiety stage. Most are holding out hope that O will save the day. Even he knows the worst is yet to come. It's going to take A Long Time to turn this tanker around. Many more losses to come before we get to full-blown panic.
Hard to say but one thing is for sure, the numbers are in and the stock market has had the worst year since Herbert Hoover was president. Bush has secured himself a place in history.
I have a problem with the accuracy of that chart, and let me tell you why.
First, it fails to take into consideration the deliberate plan to dumb the USA down. As our culture gets dumber because of constant pumping of illiterate immigrants from third world countries, corrupt government intervention in education, and controlled-brainwashing media experiments like The Atlanta/Orange County House Wives, anything on MTV, American Idol, anything on CNBC and MSNBC, etc, etc, etc; the capacity of awareness of our culture becomes weaker.
For instance, nobody is able to connect the current low price of oil trend to the recent and fake Israeli/Hamas conflict to pump oil prices up. Geez, let me see, the Israelis and Hamas waited until oil was reaching its lowest point in 2008 to start a BS conflict of "I throw a rock first, then you throw a brick right back". Sure enough, oil is back up to $40, while the corrupt and controlled MSM blames on the Israeli/Hamas "unexpected" conflict. I guess the weak attempt to pump oil prices up by alrming the sheeple with "African pirates" attacking oil tankers wasn't sticky enough to bring prices up.
Another point is everyone believing that Madoff acted alone. Can't you see Madoff was the front-man of a bigger scheme involving the same shady group that controls your government and the military? Some honest lonely-souls were sending letters to the SEC for years, warning them that Madoff's business was a huge Ponzi scheme, only to be ignored.
I say it once again, especially to the naive and dumbed-down Americans who still don't believe that 9-11 was an inside job: the shady group in power always hide behind the general assumption that our government is incompetent to commit their evil deeds. Every time there's a deliberate act to cause harm to achieve/maintain power or to steal trillions, the same excuse comes up: "Our government is sooo incompetent", they say. That's exactly what the shady group in power wants you to believe. There's $800 billion missing from the budget in Iraq? No problem, use the "government is incompetent excuse". No WMD found? No problem, "the incompetent government failed to provide the administration with reliable data". SEC didn't notice Madoff's Ponzi Scheme? "What a incompetent government!" Do you see a pattern forming?
So, because of all the reasons stated above, it's very hard for the populace to grasp any other behavior beyond denial. I give you yet another example, the common notion that suddenly Obama is the savior, like he wasn't picked by the shady group pulling the strings. The same cats never went away and now form Obama's inner group:
1. ROBERT GATES – DEFENSE SECRETARY -- Bilderberg, Council on Foreign Relations, former CIA Director, defense secretary under President Bush, co-chaired CFR task force with Zbigniew Brzezinski, knee-deep in the Iran-Contra scandal, named in a 1999 class action lawsuit pertaining to the Mena drug trafficking affair.
2. TIMOTHY GEITHNER – TREASURY SECRETARY -- Bilderberg, Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commission, president and CEO of Federal Reserve Bank of New York, director of policy development for IMF, member Group of Thirty (G30), employed at Kissinger & Associates, architect of the recent 2008 financial bailouts, mentored by Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin.
3. JOSEPH BIDEN – VICE PRESIDENT -- Bilderberg, Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senator since 1972, member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, current chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, strong Zionist sympathizer who recently told Rabbi Mark S. Golub of Shalom TV, “I am a Zionist. You don’t have to be a Jew to be a Zionist.”
4. GOOLSBEE - ECONOMICS ADVISER -- member of the Skull & Bones society of Yale University, of which George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and John Kerry are also members.
5. ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI - FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER -- co-founder of David Rockefeller's Trilateral Commission, member of Council on Foreign Relations and the Bilderberg Group. In 1988, Brzezinski was co-chairman of the Bush National Security Advisory Task Force and endorsed Bush for president, breaking with the Democratic party. After 9/11 Brzezinski was criticized for his role in the formation of the Afghan mujaheddin network, some of which would later form the Taliban and would shelter Al Qaeda camps.
We are definitely past the panic point. We've had lots of capitulation but maybe not total capitulation just yet. Despondency is "depression of spirits from loss of courage or hope; dejection". It and depression are nearly identical in definition so I don't know how to differentiate them.
So I would say we are either near the end of capitulation or already past it and into the early stages of despondency/depression.
December 29, 2008 5:46 PM Anonymous Anonymous said...
I think it really depends on what part of the Country you are in.
We all know that certain parts of the Country are crashing MUCH faster than other parts.
I think the Coasts are in Panic, while most of the mid-west (less "bubbly") are still in denial ==================================
Any place "less bubbly," like my neck of the woods, is usually clueless, but "clueless" is not on the chart. Small town America (McSame/MooseTurd land) doesn't know, doesn't care. Unless, of course, the only factory in town closes down, then they will take notice.....and blame Clinton!
no, the panic has not been felt yet; folks are still predicting a drop down to 4000 or 6000 and that's my take since it will take a while for the impacts of the layoffs to ripple through the economy.
colleges are already complaining about students dropping out and how students can't borrow the money they need to enroll and, since endowments are down, they can't fund scholarships as deeply.
doctors are complaining here in minnesota that patient traffic is down 10%.
The agencies will lend freely without appraisals. They will refi anyone with an adjustment down of whatever is owed and use the renter's tax money to fund the bankster orgy. I'd say things are pretty damn good, if you owe more than you can afford to pay.
Still plenty of denial in Boston. Brought my SUV into a Acura dealership for servicing today. Wandered around the showroom while waiting. It was packed. All salesmen were busy writing up deals. Guess it must be different here.
There are plenty of jobs in the healthcare field. Hospitals can't get enough nurses, doctors, and technicians. We won't be in the panic stage until the healthcare industry starts doing mass layoffs, with huge companies and insurance agencies going bankrupt like the autos.
Can any of you loan me 200k to save my house?I promise to pay you back at 10% interest.I just lost my job at burger king and am now looking for work.The house appraised at 415k last i checked.I am willing to sign a deed and give you 50% ownership.you have nothing to lose.
I'm encountering people from 'anxiety' to 'panic'. And most are still in denial, so I've stopped trying to talk to them about the future problems. It almost seems like they want to go down with the ship.
There will be another wave of the chart next year. There has been some capitulation, especially by hedge funds. But as you see, the hedgies are stopping withdrawals because people still want to get out..i.e. capitulate. In other words, there isn't total capitualation because the hedgies won't let it happen. Also, everyone has held onto their 401ks.
Next year, when things get worse, I think there will be another cycle of this wave.
And yes, there are pockets of denial like SF and NYC. But what do you expect? These places are full of liberals who have absolutely no grasp on reality.
Denial with a tinge of fear in the air. The retail economy fell off a cliff in November and the only thing that keeps the banks from pulling the plug on thousands of retailers is a bizarre hope that the incoming administration will bail them out.
January 21st will dawn to the reality that nothing Obama says or does will fix this mess quickly, and then we will see real fear and panic nationwide.
"Pound Falls to 98 Pence Per Euro for 1st Time on Housing Slump
By Matthew Brown
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. pound weakened to a record 98 pence per euro after an industry report said house prices will probably extend declines next year, boosting the case for deeper interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England.
Britain’s currency also dropped versus 14 of its 16 most- traded counterparts, falling for a second day against the Swiss franc and tumbling to a 14-year low against Japan’s yen. Property research company Hometrack Ltd. said U.K. house values slid 8.7 percent this year, led by a 10.1 percent drop in London, and that prices will “inevitably” decline in 2009."
I just started a new job yesterday (yes some fields are still hiring) and want to enroll in the 401k only to max out the employer match. Debating between Fidelity S&P index fund and Fidelity money market, or maybe 50/50 between the 2. Buy S&P now or stay all cash til 2010/2011?
Honestly, I don't think we hit the Panic Stage yet. "Most" people are in fear and are hunkering down.
But, I wouldn't qualify people at restaurants and bars as denial. People need "entertainment" and alcohol to forget about their fear and economic realities... People will always need to eat and drink. They will always spend money on that. Remember, gas is low, so people are running around also. You get Hungry, so you go eat and drink... duh?!?! BUT... Business is way down for those establishments. That is why the waitress hands out $20 off the next visit.
You do have some credit left on your credit cards don't you?!?! Why not have a few nice dinners or drunken nights to max it out, while you can. You know you are gonna claim bankruptcy, foreclosure and have your cars repoed anyway, along with everyone else, right?!
People are just not buying the big items such as luxuries, cars, home improvements, TVs, and computers. Those are the items most people can not pay for in cash. They have to secure credit... And you know their is no equity left in their homes to use as their ATM, so even if they wanted to (people in denial) they can't.
Some people are still in denial right now, but it is mostly fear. The people in denial are just clueless or "think" that their home is worth more than it is. When they actually get an appraisal looking for that 4.5% home mortgage, they will get the shock that puts them in the fear stage and eventually panic. This will cause some to walk away from their homes as they will see that they are basically stuck in their house for years to come and they didn't qualify for the refi because of the appraisal nor the new rate.
If you don't have a job or savings, it really doesn't matter... Panic is just around the corner (late 2009, early 2010). The Hope Stage will come in 2012. Relief and Optimish will bring in the New Year of 2013.
"Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control." -------------------- HaHaHaHaHa! Russia had better focus on retaining it's territory that borders China. The Chinese need this land more than Russia needs Alaska.
Many of the people in my immediate vicinity have already got their applications in for a Refi to the low rates and a HELOC cash out of anywhere from 20 to 40 grand.
There are plenty of jobs in the healthcare field. Hospitals can't get enough nurses, doctors, and technicians. We won't be in the panic stage until the healthcare industry starts doing mass layoffs, with huge companies and insurance agencies going bankrupt like the autos.
---------------------------
Oopsy:
"Around the country, while some hospitals still are doing well, closings and bankruptcies seem to be picking up."
Casey wrote: "Personally I think we are in line for a decent stock rally.Everytime I go out I see no signs people are hurting.Brewery was packed yesterday for the football games.I am trying to look toward the positive side.Yes I do own a house and down in value.I will not send the keys back no matter how low it goes.All this panic creates opportunity.You need to think long term.all this doom and gloom bullshit is getting old.What happened to mother of all buying opportunities last week.Is there something I missed here?Get some balls and buy a house or some stock.Or ARE YOU GOING TO MISS THE NEST BULL MARKET AS USUAL AS YOU SIT AROUND AND PREACH THE END OF THE WORLD CRAP."
Amen. But, don't pull the trigger too soon. Wait till you can see the whites of their eyes. 2009 - 1010 should be a buyer's opportunity. Think "post-Great Chicago Fire" opportunities. People who were first generation immmigrants to Chicago made a total killing afterward because they had some intestinal fortitude and had their heads screwed on right. When this fire is done burning (and it will eventually flame out), don't sit around waiting for the rapture - show some stones and get your ass a piece of the pie. Be a friggin' contrarian of the first sort. When all the rest of the mutha's are pissing and moaning, go shop for the bargains with the money you've saved.
For every genius immigrant who made a killing buying right after the fire, there were 10 idiot immigrants who lost their shirts buying during the fire.
I'm using fire as a metaphor, of course. I don't think anyone was buying buildings while they were aflame.
We're still not there yet. It has to cave in, to the point where doctors and nurses are lining up at the unemployment office and applying for food stamps.
Still plenty of denial in Boston. Brought my SUV into a Acura dealership for servicing today. Wandered around the showroom while waiting. It was packed. All salesmen were busy writing up deals. Guess it must be different here.
Weird, my wife's company in Boston has been cutting salaries and laying off employees like crazy.
In Las Vegas, I still think we're between "denial and fear". There's a lot of chatter about how many stores will close in '09. It's more of an "I have mine so let it rip" kind of attitude. "Got my cheap candle from Linens & Things", so all is good.
Grocery stores are showing signs of stress....produce is coming from farther and farther away, like Chili and Mexico. Less produce coming from CA. Costco seems to be the only store that has real volume produce.
My niece works at the Wynn in retail sales. She says stay away from the Strip. It's all Japanese tourists, not buying anything, just tossing money into the slot machines going-for-the-jackpot. Also, she says they're extremely rude; yelling, "Oh, I can get that cheaper in China."
My husband has been using up his pre-paid golf ball card the last few days. Apparently, the driving range is packed with other husbands with the same idea. He figures that on Jan 1st, that'll be over.
Bars in the Redrock area seem to be full. Don't see all the new breast implants strolling on the outdoor patio - probably too cold. That's a summer giggle.
I know everyone has already heard this story, but I just found out that someone I know bought a CA McMansion at the peak in 2006. Is now trying to short sell it. From what I can figure, losses add up to about 700,000 between depreciation, mortgage payments and taxes. Now this is an otherwise successful person. Amazing. Disgusting!
"Weird, my wife's company in Boston has been cutting salaries and laying off employees like crazy."
I was at the Natick Mall today. An hour and half wait for lunch at the Cheesecake Factory. Next door, there is a long line just to get into American Girl.
"I was at the Natick Mall today. An hour and half wait for lunch at the Cheesecake Factory. Next door, there is a long line just to get into American Girl."
Did you mean American Grill, Anon?
Anyway, did you not read my post? People will eat and drink. They need entertainment... Run up the credit cards limits that are left!
HEY JAWS! Tell me more about the Las Vegas Scene out there. I hear Wynn Encore is hiring. What does THAT LINE look like?
I was at the Natick Mall today. An hour and half wait for lunch at the Cheesecake Factory. Next door, there is a long line just to get into American Girl.
Hey Keith, we got a new one: line at the Cheesecake Factory.
PerpWalkWatch - # of Hours New AG Eric Holder Has Let Angelo Mozilo Run Free
Eric Holder and Barack Obama Failure to Arrest Angelo Mozilo 2862 Hours (countdown suspended 6/21/2009)
ERIC HOLDER - YOU ARE A COWARD
DO YOUR JOB
(UPDATE 6.4.09 - SEC CHARGES MOZILO WITH INSIDER TRADING. YET ERIC HOLDER STILL SITS ON HIS ASS AND DOES NOTHING)
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"The world is not going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done."
- BulgariaPANIC - Riots but oddly quiet now: 2.0 - LithuaniaPANIC - Riots but oddly quiet now: 2.0 - LatviaPANIC - GOVERNMENT COLLAPSES: 3.0 - EstoniaPANIC - Pressure building: 2.0 - ThailandPANIC - Massive riots, soldiers open up with live fire, government about to collapse - 5.0 - UkrainePANIC - Economy tanking, protests building ahead of vote - 2.0 - IrelandPANIC - 100,000 protest, bank takeover, default possible, no violence: 3.0 -MoldovaPANIC - full scale riots, Parliament torched, government about to collapse: 5.0 - GeorgiaPANIC - full scale riots, government about to be forced out: 5.0 - IcelandPANIC - GOVERNMENT COLLAPSES: 3.0 - RomaniaPANIC - Tension: 2.0 - SpainPANIC - Credit rating cut, unemployment soaring, default rumors: 2.0 - FrancePANIC - Lots of protests, but nothing important, French have better things to do than overthrow their government: 1.0 - GreecePANIC - Scattered riots, chance of showers: 2.0 - HungaryPANIC - GOVERNMENT COLLAPSES: 4.0 - BelarusPANIC - Tension with censorship: 2.0 - UKPANIC: G20 riots quickly replaced by American Idol:1.0 - SouthKoreaPANIC - Violent protests demanding government resign: 3.0 - DubaiPANIC - Unease, soaring unemployment, crashing real estate: 3.0 - MexicoPANIC - Murders, remittances drop first time EVER, jobless illegals coming home to no jobs, troops to the borders: 3.0 - PakistanPANIC - Riots starting: 3.0 - VenezuelaPANIC - Protests: 2.0 - RussiaPANIC - Protests building but will be violently suppressed, another reporter murdered: 1.0 - ChinaPANIC - Protesters will be killed again, government in control of a weak people: 1.0 - IranPANIC - Despotic regime about to fall - Ayatollah disregarded and disrespected, streets aflame - 5.0 - AmericaPANIC - Idol on, McDonalds still open: 0.0 - BahrainPANIC - Riots break out, 10,000 Shiites rage against ruling Sunni elite: 3.0 - MadagascarPANIC - violent protests, GOVERNMENT COLLAPSES- 3.0
72 comments:
On top of all the present economic woes...
Black Swan Event in the arab world
= cutoff of most oil production
= empty shelves at grocery stores
= PANIC
- - - - - -
And some people thought that the lackluster Christmas shopping season was enough bad news!
-Mammoth
Still denial with most folks.
And they are goddamned determined to keep it that way. "You need to keep your mind off the depressing depression talk."
Dishonest and cowardly to the bitter end, we just push scary stuff out of our minds.
We have nowhere near the backbone we had 2 generations ago.
The Public is still back in Denial. They way the BS is flying my guess is that some of these idiots are telling themselves that when someone comes to foreclose on their house that just means it is a great buying opertunity. Oh, sorry, that also applies to market analysts. If we had a legitimate gold trading market gold would be at
$2k.
DMP
I think we are entering into the fear stage. Last night we balanced the bank accounts and we are doing good. I then asked my wife how many others are doing as good as us and we don't think its many. Most people don't have any money left over at the end of the month or are or have been living off of credit. I know many people who have not worked for several months. I hear fear in peoples statement in public places. Im doing the worst thing in this period, I have money, but not spending a dime and saving everything I can.
" Mammoth said...
On top of all the present economic woes...
Black Swan Event in the arab world
= cutoff of most oil production
= empty shelves at grocery stores
= PANIC"
Great Post! Thanks!
Another Goodie! Thanks!
Anonymous said...
The Public is still back in Denial. They way the BS is flying my guess is that some of these idiots are telling themselves that when someone comes to foreclose on their house that just means it is a great buying opertunity.
DIE U PIGS
Go to any gun store and see if you see a consumer pull back. I stopped into a gun store a few days ago to buy a box of shells to go deer hunting and the place was packed. Lots of folks buying guns and they did not look like the hunter type. FEAR maybe I just thought man this place is nuts.
Personally I think we are in line for a decent stock rally.Everytime I go out I see no signs people are hurting.Brewery was packed yesterday for the football games.I am trying to look toward the positive side.Yes I do own a house and down in value.I will not send the keys back no matter how low it goes.All this panic creates opportunity.You need to think long term.all this doom and gloom bullshit is getting old.What happened to mother of all buying opportunities last week.Is there something I missed here?Get some balls and buy a house or some stock.Or ARE YOU GOING TO MISS THE NEST BULL MARKET AS USUAL AS YOU SIT AROUND AND PREACH THE END OF THE WORLD CRAP.
can you put "fucked" on the chart?
In Russia the October/November events were a reality check. Reality was denied at first (stock market bottom-hunters have rushed in, quadrupling the number of Internet trading accounts as if they bet on a V-shaped bounce), and that qualifies for DENIAL.
But wait! When you see crowds lining up into currency exchange outlets to get out of their roubles you can't mistake that for FEAR. Shall the positive feedback loop continue, we'll be into DESPERATION by early 2009 and a full-blown PANIC by the next spring.
The question is how long will the eventual bottom take. I'll not disclose what the uneducated quack-analyst in me suggests at this time but I have a scenario to play. :)
In the US, fear for public, maybe desparation for the government. Panic still to come for both.
We are definitely past the panic point. We've had lots of capitulation but maybe not total capitulation just yet. Despondency is "depression of spirits from loss of courage or hope; dejection". It and depression are nearly identical in definition so I don't know how to differentiate them.
So I would say we are either near the end of capitulation or already past it and into the early stages of despondency/depression.
I think it really depends on what part of the Country you are in.
We all know that certain parts of the Country are crashing MUCH faster than other parts.
I think the Coasts are in Panic, while most of the mid-west (less "bubbly") are still in denial
To match reality to this graph, we must assume events of the last 70 years are so will continue in the foreseeable future. IMHO, I believe will see a vastly different future from that of the past 70 years where energy is abound and plentiful. This economic malaise and at some point on the graph "panic" will morph into a depression. The contraction of debt and energy use will flatline this graph sometime to come.
Cinch
Feedback loop coming. Capitulation followed by further desperation and panic.
I think many people experienced financial "panic" at some point last year. But, they have retreated back to the "denial" comfort zone (aided by anti depressants, increased alcohol consumption, MSM reporting that the worst is over etc,).
My favorite denial line Re: the 40%hit people took in the market this year: "I'm dollar cost averaging, so I will benefit in long run." Yeah, lets put pencil to paper to see how that's working out for you...(I've yet to have any takers).
"all this doom and gloom bullshit is getting old.What happened to mother of all buying opportunities last week.Is there something I missed here?Get some balls and buy a house or some stock.Or ARE YOU GOING TO MISS THE NEST BULL MARKET AS USUAL AS YOU SIT AROUND AND PREACH THE END OF THE WORLD CRAP."
Hee hee, based on this comment I would say the 'desperation stage'.
Based on discussions with family and a look at the market, prices, contrarian-worth magazine articles, etc, I think October was panic, the second drop was capitulation and the christmas season has given us despondency.
There is more cash on the sidelines now than there has been since 1982.
TIME TO BUY. (I have been since Oct 10.)
My husband just ran out to buy milk. He said the cops are all over the place. Someone just robbed the bank down the road. That's only 1/2 mile away. At least there are still cops.
Just after panic and right before capitulation. Might even still be in the panic phase.
i would say that we are in fear. for the most part amongst my acquaintances and friends there is fear of what is to come but we all have been relatively untouched by the unfolding events.
But that will change in 2009.
Amazingly, a lot of people think that BO will be able to fix things that this whole mess is due solely to what Bush has done (or not done).
Everytime I go out I see no signs people are hurting.Brewery was packed yesterday for the football games.
-------------------------------------
yea, I know what you mean. I went to Stanfords for dinner the other night (tuesday evening) and it was packed but yet the waitress handed everyone a $20 off coupon for their next visit. weird.
Central Coast California: In between denial and fear. I spent the Holidays in the SF bay area and it is definitely still in denial. 36 people at dinner, overwhelming denial.
b/t denial and fear. In the SF bay area denial for sure. 36 people for dinner > denial.
October/November was the panic. It will be followed by a 2009 winter/early spring technical (bear market) rally (20% bounce off lows) and followed up by a "Dead Economy THUD" for the rest of the year.
I think the technical term is "stag DEflation".
Got Cash?
Hey wait a minute, I thought you were prognosticating that we were in despondency/depression a few months back.
Did we go in reverse or something?
Noodles-
For the last 16 months been paying off as much as I could then 3 months ago as I wondered if we would crash I started buying supplies like some "Tin Foil Bandido" you know guns, silver and food stuffs.
Honestly wish I had started sooner...You can actually taste the fear where I'm at and about 90%of the people I work with make $100K plus.
I never do the overtime but I've been lucky as to not be under as much pressure as them...I've tried to help or give suggestions to close friends but just like with the housing market they refuse to want to see.
It's going to be BAAAAAAD!
Sadly enough we need a kick in the ass to understand things and appreciate what we have...Too bad it's the poor and weak who suffer first.
No Mad Max future but I do see us as Argentina 2.0
Keith,
Here's a gem for ya!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html
We're still in the anxiety stage. Most are holding out hope that O will save the day. Even he knows the worst is yet to come. It's going to take A Long Time to turn this tanker around. Many more losses to come before we get to full-blown panic.
DEFINITELY BETWEEN ANXIETY AND FEAR BECAUSE ALOT OF PEOPLE ARE STILL FLOATING IN THE RIVER OF DE-NIAL.
Hard to say but one thing is for sure, the numbers are in and the stock market has had the worst year since Herbert Hoover was president. Bush has secured himself a place in history.
GREAT Fodder for discussion:
Prof Pinarin (ex KGB) from Russia predicts the disintegration of the US in 2010, along ethnic and economic lines.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html
Note his wonderful endgame map at the bottom of the article...
I have a problem with the accuracy of that chart, and let me tell you why.
First, it fails to take into consideration the deliberate plan to dumb the USA down. As our culture gets dumber because of constant pumping of illiterate immigrants from third world countries, corrupt government intervention in education, and controlled-brainwashing media experiments like The Atlanta/Orange County House Wives, anything on MTV, American Idol, anything on CNBC and MSNBC, etc, etc, etc; the capacity of awareness of our culture becomes weaker.
For instance, nobody is able to connect the current low price of oil trend to the recent and fake Israeli/Hamas conflict to pump oil prices up. Geez, let me see, the Israelis and Hamas waited until oil was reaching its lowest point in 2008 to start a BS conflict of "I throw a rock first, then you throw a brick right back". Sure enough, oil is back up to $40, while the corrupt and controlled MSM blames on the Israeli/Hamas "unexpected" conflict. I guess the weak attempt to pump oil prices up by alrming the sheeple with "African pirates" attacking oil tankers wasn't sticky enough to bring prices up.
Another point is everyone believing that Madoff acted alone. Can't you see Madoff was the front-man of a bigger scheme involving the same shady group that controls your government and the military? Some honest lonely-souls were sending letters to the SEC for years, warning them that Madoff's business was a huge Ponzi scheme, only to be ignored.
I say it once again, especially to the naive and dumbed-down Americans who still don't believe that 9-11 was an inside job: the shady group in power always hide behind the general assumption that our government is incompetent to commit their evil deeds. Every time there's a deliberate act to cause harm to achieve/maintain power or to steal trillions, the same excuse comes up: "Our government is sooo incompetent", they say. That's exactly what the shady group in power wants you to believe. There's $800 billion missing from the budget in Iraq? No problem, use the "government is incompetent excuse". No WMD found? No problem, "the incompetent government failed to provide the administration with reliable data". SEC didn't notice Madoff's Ponzi Scheme? "What a incompetent government!" Do you see a pattern forming?
So, because of all the reasons stated above, it's very hard for the populace to grasp any other behavior beyond denial. I give you yet another example, the common notion that suddenly Obama is the savior, like he wasn't picked by the shady group pulling the strings. The same cats never went away and now form Obama's inner group:
1. ROBERT GATES – DEFENSE SECRETARY -- Bilderberg, Council on Foreign Relations, former CIA Director, defense secretary under President Bush, co-chaired CFR task force with Zbigniew Brzezinski, knee-deep in the Iran-Contra scandal, named in a 1999 class action lawsuit pertaining to the Mena drug trafficking affair.
2. TIMOTHY GEITHNER – TREASURY SECRETARY -- Bilderberg, Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commission, president and CEO of Federal Reserve Bank of New York, director of policy development for IMF, member Group of Thirty (G30), employed at Kissinger & Associates, architect of the recent 2008 financial bailouts, mentored by Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin.
3. JOSEPH BIDEN – VICE PRESIDENT -- Bilderberg, Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senator since 1972, member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, current chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, strong Zionist sympathizer who recently told Rabbi Mark S. Golub of Shalom TV, “I am a Zionist. You don’t have to be a Jew to be a Zionist.”
4. GOOLSBEE - ECONOMICS ADVISER -- member of the Skull & Bones society of Yale University, of which George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and John Kerry are also members.
5. ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI - FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER -- co-founder of David Rockefeller's Trilateral Commission, member of Council on Foreign Relations and the Bilderberg Group. In 1988, Brzezinski was co-chairman of the Bush National Security Advisory Task Force and endorsed Bush for president, breaking with the Democratic party. After 9/11 Brzezinski was criticized for his role in the formation of the Afghan mujaheddin network, some of which would later form the Taliban and would shelter Al Qaeda camps.
If nobody is buying anything, I doubt that the shelves would go bare.
My predictor is a sharp drop in prices before the bottom. I keep looking for that free fall event, but I don't see it.
We are definitely past the panic point. We've had lots of capitulation but maybe not total capitulation just yet. Despondency is "depression of spirits from loss of courage or hope; dejection". It and depression are nearly identical in definition so I don't know how to differentiate them.
So I would say we are either near the end of capitulation or already past it and into the early stages of despondency/depression.
December 29, 2008 5:46 PM
Anonymous Anonymous said...
I think it really depends on what part of the Country you are in.
We all know that certain parts of the Country are crashing MUCH faster than other parts.
I think the Coasts are in Panic, while most of the mid-west (less "bubbly") are still in denial
==================================
Any place "less bubbly," like my neck of the woods, is usually clueless, but "clueless" is not on the chart. Small town America (McSame/MooseTurd land) doesn't know, doesn't care. Unless, of course, the only factory in town closes down, then they will take notice.....and blame Clinton!
JUST IGNORE THIS POST!
bad news
JUST IGNORE THIS POST!
no, the panic has not been felt yet; folks are still predicting a drop down to 4000 or 6000 and that's my take since it will take a while for the impacts of the layoffs to ripple through the economy.
colleges are already complaining about students dropping out and how students can't borrow the money they need to enroll and, since endowments are down, they can't fund scholarships as deeply.
doctors are complaining here in minnesota that patient traffic is down 10%.
perhaps obama will wave his magic wand but the Archbishop of Canterbury offered a much more sober assessment of Obama in his Christmas Sermon.
My translation: "Obama's abs won't help you get in shape; so get to work."
I'm thinking that if the Eagles win the SuperBowl, things will go differently.... we'll see.
The agencies will lend freely without appraisals. They will refi anyone with an adjustment down of whatever is owed and use the renter's tax money to fund the bankster orgy. I'd say things are pretty damn good, if you owe more than you can afford to pay.
Still plenty of denial in Boston. Brought my SUV into a Acura dealership for servicing today. Wandered around the showroom while waiting. It was packed. All salesmen were busy writing up deals. Guess it must be different here.
There are plenty of jobs in the healthcare field. Hospitals can't get enough nurses, doctors, and technicians. We won't be in the panic stage until the healthcare industry starts doing mass layoffs, with huge companies and insurance agencies going bankrupt like the autos.
Can any of you loan me
200k to save my house?I promise to pay you back at 10% interest.I just lost my job at burger king and am now looking for work.The house appraised at 415k last i checked.I am willing to sign a deed and give you 50% ownership.you have nothing to lose.
I'm encountering people from 'anxiety' to 'panic'. And most are still in denial, so I've stopped trying to talk to them about the future problems. It almost seems like they want to go down with the ship.
There will be another wave of the chart next year. There has been some capitulation, especially by hedge funds. But as you see, the hedgies are stopping withdrawals because people still want to get out..i.e. capitulate. In other words, there isn't total capitualation because the hedgies won't let it happen. Also, everyone has held onto their 401ks.
Next year, when things get worse, I think there will be another cycle of this wave.
And yes, there are pockets of denial like SF and NYC. But what do you expect? These places are full of liberals who have absolutely no grasp on reality.
Denial with a tinge of fear in the air. The retail economy fell off a cliff in November and the only thing that keeps the banks from pulling the plug on thousands of retailers is a bizarre hope that the incoming administration will bail them out.
January 21st will dawn to the reality that nothing Obama says or does will fix this mess quickly, and then we will see real fear and panic nationwide.
"Pound Falls to 98 Pence Per Euro for 1st Time on Housing Slump
By Matthew Brown
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. pound weakened to a record 98 pence per euro after an industry report said house prices will probably extend declines next year, boosting the case for deeper interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England.
Britain’s currency also dropped versus 14 of its 16 most- traded counterparts, falling for a second day against the Swiss franc and tumbling to a 14-year low against Japan’s yen. Property research company Hometrack Ltd. said U.K. house values slid 8.7 percent this year, led by a 10.1 percent drop in London, and that prices will “inevitably” decline in 2009."
http://tinyurl.com/7mjm8z
I just started a new job yesterday (yes some fields are still hiring) and want to enroll in the 401k only to max out the employer match. Debating between Fidelity S&P index fund and Fidelity money market, or maybe 50/50 between the 2. Buy S&P now or stay all cash til 2010/2011?
Homeowners are still in denial.
DENIAL!
Everyday I hear things like:
"I will just take this[drop in the market] as a buying opportunity"
and
"Dollar cost averaging is the best way to maximize gains"
"my house has lost value but it will come back in a year or two" (this guy has lost $270,000 in value in his Mcmansion craphole!)
"this market has no confidence and until we have confidence we will remain in our economic slump." This was a quote from a Noble Prize Economist.
Denial. Until people realize this is NOT a bump in he road, we will continue in this economic malaise.
Nevada Burning
http://www.newyearseve1929.com/details.html
Here is a 1929 NYE Party in NYC.
The price drops, both on a year-over-year and month-over-month basis, came in worse than expectations...
"The problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained."
— Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, March 28, 2007
Treasury also said it will lend up to $1 billion to General Motors so that the company can purchase additional equity that GMAC is planning to offer as part of its effort to raise more capital...
We lend money to a company so that they may buy shares in their own company to raise money.
???
Want to read the ultimate gloom and doom?
http://baltimorechronicle.com/2008/120808Lendman.shtml
Honestly, I don't think we hit the Panic Stage yet. "Most" people are in fear and are hunkering down.
But, I wouldn't qualify people at restaurants and bars as denial. People need "entertainment" and alcohol to forget about their fear and economic realities... People will always need to eat and drink. They will always spend money on that. Remember, gas is low, so people are running around also. You get Hungry, so you go eat and drink... duh?!?!
BUT... Business is way down for those establishments. That is why the waitress hands out $20 off the next visit.
You do have some credit left on your credit cards don't you?!?! Why not have a few nice dinners or drunken nights to max it out, while you can. You know you are gonna claim bankruptcy, foreclosure and have your cars repoed anyway, along with everyone else, right?!
People are just not buying the big items such as luxuries, cars, home improvements, TVs, and computers. Those are the items most people can not pay for in cash. They have to secure credit... And you know their is no equity left in their homes to use as their ATM, so even if they wanted to (people in denial) they can't.
Some people are still in denial right now, but it is mostly fear. The people in denial are just clueless or "think" that their home is worth more than it is. When they actually get an appraisal looking for that 4.5% home mortgage, they will get the shock that puts them in the fear stage and eventually panic. This will cause some to walk away from their homes as they will see that they are basically stuck in their house for years to come and they didn't qualify for the refi because of the appraisal nor the new rate.
If you don't have a job or savings, it really doesn't matter... Panic is just around the corner (late 2009, early 2010). The Hope Stage will come in 2012. Relief and Optimish will bring in the New Year of 2013.
From the link by Crashproof 9:43 PM:
"Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control."
--------------------
HaHaHaHaHa!
Russia had better focus on retaining it's territory that borders China. The Chinese need this land more than Russia needs Alaska.
-Mammoth
Neighbors house has been "PRICED FOR QUICK SALE" ---- for a year and a half now.
A very similar, but newer and nicer looking house just sold on the same street in only 6 days --- for 18% less than what the neighbor is asking.
The neighbors response, "Well I'm not going to give my house away like those people".
He hasn't a clue!
When the FED throws out 8 trillion to try and save the system, this is desperation.
Panic will come when the DOW hits the 2002 low of7200 and keeps on falling all the way to 4000. That will be your panic low.
Joe M.
Lady Di, my "financial analyst" can't explain dollar cost averaging to me. It's why he is basically a figurehead at a brokerage for me.
Here is how I put it to him:
Buy 40 shares @ $20 = $800
Buy 800 shares @ $1 = $800
Sell 840 shares @ $2 = $1680
Sell 840 shares @ $3 = $2520
And so on...dollar cost averaging only works if what goes down comes back up. Unless you short in a dollar cost averaging kind of way...
If you have to ask, we are not at that stage yet... we will all know when it comes...
This year more than likely when the denial is gone
Many of the people in my immediate vicinity have already got their applications in for a Refi to the low rates and a HELOC cash out of anywhere from 20 to 40 grand.
Move along, nothing to see here.
It didn't feel like panic did it?
Certainly desperation, but I didn't see any panic selling during the past few months.
Just a relentless downward trend,
but no massive sell offs (10% or greater losses in one day).
Shoot, the circuit breakers haven't even been triggered yet. Not even once.
Jymkata
Anonymous said...
There are plenty of jobs in the healthcare field. Hospitals can't get enough nurses, doctors, and technicians. We won't be in the panic stage until the healthcare industry starts doing mass layoffs, with huge companies and insurance agencies going bankrupt like the autos.
---------------------------
Oopsy:
"Around the country, while some hospitals still are doing well, closings and bankruptcies seem to be picking up."
http://tinyurl.com/7q3bqn
Casey wrote: "Personally I think we are in line for a decent stock rally.Everytime I go out I see no signs people are hurting.Brewery was packed yesterday for the football games.I am trying to look toward the positive side.Yes I do own a house and down in value.I will not send the keys back no matter how low it goes.All this panic creates opportunity.You need to think long term.all this doom and gloom bullshit is getting old.What happened to mother of all buying opportunities last week.Is there something I missed here?Get some balls and buy a house or some stock.Or ARE YOU GOING TO MISS THE NEST BULL MARKET AS USUAL AS YOU SIT AROUND AND PREACH THE END OF THE WORLD CRAP."
Amen. But, don't pull the trigger too soon. Wait till you can see the whites of their eyes. 2009 - 1010 should be a buyer's opportunity. Think "post-Great Chicago Fire" opportunities. People who were first generation immmigrants to Chicago made a total killing afterward because they had some intestinal fortitude and had their heads screwed on right. When this fire is done burning (and it will eventually flame out), don't sit around waiting for the rapture - show some stones and get your ass a piece of the pie. Be a friggin' contrarian of the first sort. When all the rest of the mutha's are pissing and moaning, go shop for the bargains with the money you've saved.
Smug Bastard
For every genius immigrant who made a killing buying right after the fire, there were 10 idiot immigrants who lost their shirts buying during the fire.
I'm using fire as a metaphor, of course. I don't think anyone was buying buildings while they were aflame.
Oopsy:
"Around the country, while some hospitals still are doing well, closings and bankruptcies seem to be picking up."
http://tinyurl.com/7q3bqn
----------------------------------
We're still not there yet. It has to cave in, to the point where doctors and nurses are lining up at the unemployment office and applying for food stamps.
Still plenty of denial in Boston. Brought my SUV into a Acura dealership for servicing today. Wandered around the showroom while waiting. It was packed. All salesmen were busy writing up deals. Guess it must be different here.
Weird, my wife's company in Boston has been cutting salaries and laying off employees like crazy.
Oopsy:
"Around the country, while some hospitals still are doing well, closings and bankruptcies seem to be picking up."
http://tinyurl.com/7q3bqn
-----------------------------------
I still say we're not quite there yet. I'll believe it when I see doctors and nurses applying for unemployment and food stamps.
In Las Vegas, I still think we're between "denial and fear". There's a lot of chatter about how many stores will close in '09. It's more of an "I have mine so let it rip" kind of attitude. "Got my cheap candle from Linens & Things", so all is good.
Grocery stores are showing signs of stress....produce is coming from farther and farther away, like Chili and Mexico. Less produce coming from CA. Costco seems to be the only store that has real volume produce.
My niece works at the Wynn in retail sales. She says stay away from the Strip. It's all Japanese tourists, not buying anything, just tossing money into the slot machines going-for-the-jackpot. Also, she says they're extremely rude; yelling, "Oh, I can get that cheaper in China."
My husband has been using up his pre-paid golf ball card the last few days. Apparently, the driving range is packed with other husbands with the same idea. He figures that on Jan 1st, that'll be over.
Bars in the Redrock area seem to be full. Don't see all the new breast implants strolling on the outdoor patio - probably too cold. That's a summer giggle.
I know everyone has already heard this story, but I just found out that someone I know bought a CA McMansion at the peak in 2006. Is now trying to short sell it. From what I can figure, losses add up to about 700,000 between depreciation, mortgage payments and taxes.
Now this is an otherwise successful person. Amazing. Disgusting!
casey sez buy now or be priced out forever. LMAO!! This depression could last thirty years.
"Weird, my wife's company in Boston has been cutting salaries and laying off employees like crazy."
I was at the Natick Mall today. An hour and half wait for lunch at the Cheesecake Factory. Next door, there is a long line just to get into American Girl.
"I was at the Natick Mall today. An hour and half wait for lunch at the Cheesecake Factory. Next door, there is a long line just to get into American Girl."
Did you mean American Grill, Anon?
Anyway, did you not read my post?
People will eat and drink. They need entertainment... Run up the credit cards limits that are left!
HEY JAWS! Tell me more about the Las Vegas Scene out there. I hear Wynn Encore is hiring. What does THAT LINE look like?
I was at the Natick Mall today. An hour and half wait for lunch at the Cheesecake Factory. Next door, there is a long line just to get into American Girl.
Hey Keith, we got a new one: line at the Cheesecake Factory.
PS: Just old HP'ers get the joke.
"Did you mean American Grill, Anon?"
No misspelling.
www.americangirl.com
More useless sh*t bought by people with money they don't have.
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