Up 25% since the panicked November bottom...
Once again, buying when there was blood in the street has paid off. For now.
But will it hold?
That's the $64 trillion question.
January 2, 2009
Here's the 90 day S&P. This tellin' anyone anything?
Up 25% since the panicked November bottom...
Once again, buying when there was blood in the street has paid off. For now.
But will it hold?
That's the $64 trillion question.
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Obama's Trillion Dollar Stimulus May Not be Needed
Falling oil prices, plunging mortgage rates, an "all in" Fed. Maybe we don't need Obama's trillion-dollar stimulus packages after all. Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital doesn't seem to think so:
There is currently much support for a trillion dollar fiscal spending package being proposed by the incoming Obama administration. However, for perspective, consider that the current trailing 12-month federal deficit is about $700 billion and will likely be near a trillion dollars by the time Obama takes office. Therefore, the trillion dollar fiscal package which many think is required next year has already been implemented! Does the consensus appreciate how much policy juice has already been dumped into this economy?
Moreover, many of these record-setting policies have not yet had a sufficient lag time to work, but will by this summer! Although policy actions have not yet shown much positive impact, it would be odd indeed if the record-setting policy response of 2008 produced only modest economic results this year.
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2009/1/2/obamas-trillion-dollar-stimulus-may-not-be-needed.html
Happy New Year
"The Party is Over"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRkVSmdvZ9A
The government will do what they keep doing EVERY TIME in the last couple of decades or more: chase and overreact in the OTHER direction.
With all the stimulus already in and maybe more in the first 100 days, by the mid terms the economy will be overheated (again) and we'll have high inflation, overemployment, wage demands, stock market runs, high commercial interest rates, and high greed among bankers.
And the Fed will be trying to catch up (again) with big rate rises--until they go too far too fast, without waiting for effect.
Rinse. Repeat.
If you're not fully IN THE MARKET before the first rate increase, you've MISSED A LOT OF GAIN--but you should still get in at that point, because the fed will be trying to play catch up.
Buying isn't the problem, it's the holding that should worry investors.
We will see equities rise on psychology and a momentum trading atmosphere for the next 6 months based on a "bottom" and Obama optimism.
But the fork in the road will be August time frame when the Optimism hypothesis will be compared to the actual numbers.
As always, the only thing that really matters is the Chinese et. al.
If they are content to get screwed, the Ponzi scheme continues. The moment they decide to opt out, you will see DOW 4,000.
All of this is divorced from the actual economy which has really bad long term structural problems.
So yes, we are in for a 15-20% first half rally, which will flatten out, or turn into a debacle based on geo-politics, NOT economics.
S&P will go up to about 1050-1100 and than will tank to 600.
Dny
The fundamentals are still deteriorating. Corporate earnings will be dismal and the rally will fall apart in a couple of month. Me thinks around January 20th will be a good exit point to take some profits off the table.
I am scared shitless to short the market right now.SDS, qid are down about 6% right now.I'm thinking of going short towards the close.
I cold sure use some stimulus in the form of a little blue pill.It is hell to get old my friends.
I'm headed to walmart to get a carton of marlbaros.I am smoking two packs a day and drinking a liter of jack/ day.If i get another stimulous check I'm going to sams club and get a case of jack daniels.
do any of you people know an etf to short tresuries?
It's a short term (6 mo) hold. It's a trader's rally. A bear market rally. Not a long term investor (buy and hold) rally.
How about posting a graph projecting forward, which shows what the S & P will do if the fighting in the Middle East escalates to the point that Oil is no longer flowing from the Middle East?
If THSTF there, then November's low will be a number to hope for.
Nothing more than a bear market rally. Go to calculated risk and look the the "Four Bad Bears" chart.
I see a trend!
That chart Looks like a big bear flag to me.
I like to keep things simple.
Deficit spending does not matter-till it does matter, and then it will be different this time.
Enron found that out the hard way.
The short term level of the Dow is too far over its 50 day average and there have been too many up days over the past two weeks. I shorted it this afternoon.
I just knew the traders were trying to get it over the 9k point. i was watching the indexes all day and new they were trying to get the dow over 9k and the nasdaq over 1600...and they did! Wow, big surprise. Nothing else is driving this market other than the desire by the big traders to get the indexes past psychological levels. Also, they wanted to get the dow above 9k, which has been its ceiling since early november. i predict the dow should be back to 8500 and nasdaq back to 1500 in the near future. if i'm wrong, well i'll take a small loss on the dow short and wait to short it again.
i also shorted a number of nasdaq stocks that i think have risen too far above their 50 day moving averages. my feeling is that they should be going lower in the near future, at which time i will buy to cover. i have bought and sold these particular stocks 15 times since october and have made a profit on every trade.
having said this, i do think we are in for a longer term rally over the next three months due to a general sense of "starting over" with a new year and a new president, and the anticipation of money bombs. but alas, it will all come down later this half or this year when everyone realizes that money bombs themselves and low interest rates can't produce the goods we need to lead us out of this pit, or stop the housing implosion.
if you're a buy-and-holder, then now may be a good time to get in and hold for a while...and then sell. if you are a trader, then you may want to get in -- going long or short -- when the time is right...just don't get greedy though; take an acceptable profit on the trade and then go back in when the price level is attractive on either the long or short side.*
* DISCLAIMER: I'm not giving stock, trading, or market advice. These are just my personal points of view for general discussion purposes. Don't make trading decisions on what I say above.
And here's reality that can't be manipulated by crooks on Wall Street and PPT:
NYT -- In the United States on Friday, a crucial measure of manufacturing activity fell to the lowest level in 28 years in December. The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index was 32.4 in December down from 36.2 in November.
“Manufacturing activity continued to decline at a rapid rate during the month of December,” said Norbert J. Ore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. This index was at the lowest reading since June 1980 when it was 30.3 percent.
“This report indicates that the U.S. economy was on even weaker footing than commonly believed as 2008 came to a close,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR. “Moreover, the signal from the export orders index is that the rest of the world is right there with us. Hardly a signal for economic recovery anytime soon.”
IT'S ALL RIGGED!
And the US Ponzi scheme continues on Wall Street and at the FED:
NYT -- In Europe, a closely watched index of purchasing managers showed manufacturing hit a low in December, falling to 33.9 from 35.6. Any reading above 50 signals growth, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing. Similarly grim readings in Australia, China and India highlighted how the Asia-Pacific region has become caught up in the global turmoil.
In China, the purchasing managers’ index by the brokerage firm CLSA showed the manufacturing sector had contracted for a fifth consecutive month. The survey showed the steepest decline in its history.
“With five back to back P.M.I.’s signaling contraction, the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 43 percent of the Chinese economy, is close to technical recession,” said Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA in Hong Kong, in a note accompanying the release.
The data added to the flood of statistical evidence from across Asia-Pacific showing that the region is slowing faster than previously thought as demand withers in the United States and Europe.
See, the US stock market is detached from reality and fundamentals. It's become a casino run by crooks.
As usual, the conmen (aka traders) will sink the market right at Obama's inauguration, in order to put pressure on him and the pathetic Dems to provide a huge stimulus package. They've done that every single time there was a bailout. So mark my words: There's a huge nosedive coming in the market, created by the same crooks on Wall Street. They want you to jump in the market so they can fleece you.
GM will post worst sales in 50 years on Monday. That should take back all of the PPT pumping and then some.
Automakers BS marketing crap stinks and consumers know it, they jack up prices 15% then offer 15% discount red tag or employee prices LOL.
Short ETFs
Well, as a home owner, I can say that this is still not a good time (in fact very bad still) to put any money down on a house.
They are still WAY over-priced, and prices will tank even further - don't catch a falling knife as they say.
This is not an investor's market. Only short term trading is rational in this environment.
The market is normally gamed to the upside by the PTB. The PTB also see the news, and now the market is a machine for stealing your money.
Long or Short, it does not matter, you can only get in and out quickly. You must USE A STOP LOSS. You must take profit when it presents itself. Otherwise stay out of the market. Most banks are still offering deals on short term CDs.
Keith, if you want to gamble go to Atlantic City or Vegas, for at least you know the odds for each table game. Wall Street Casino is like Vegas when the mobb ruled it.
Keith,
You must be mind-melding with me--STOP IT! I bought SDS today. I looked at the S&P500, laughed, and said, "BULLSHIT". Wait until the quarter numbers come in; it'll be bloody.
And then there is this...
A Nevada Town Escapes the Slump, Thanks to Gold
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I would like to know what everyone's opinion is on where mortgage interest rates will be in 2009.
History Channel predicts the end:
http://www.history.com/genericContent.do?id=61014
the etf to short treasuries was in todays financialsense.com article about bewary of treasuries.
clearly, from the chart, one can tell that if the mark isn't flat in the near term that it will be up moderately to moderately down.
As usual, the conmen (aka traders) will sink the market right at Obama's inauguration, in order to put pressure on him and the pathetic Dems to provide a huge stimulus package. They've done that every single time there was a bailout. So mark my words: There's a huge nosedive coming in the market, created by the same crooks on Wall Street. They want you to jump in the market so they can fleece you.
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you are right about where the market is heading after BO gets into office but it is simply due to bull runs ending on "peak good news" and the good news is the stimulus package. It is not really good news as it will prolong the depression but the media thinks it is good news. after the package is passed and signed the market will realize that it will do more harm than good to borrow a lot of money and build things (bridges to no where) that we don't really need and the market will head down. sharply.
Ha! Welcome to Russia. And then some of you sheep say, "Noooo, there's not New World Order going on". You see, the crook bankers steal your tax money and if you dare to complain, then they put the Army on the streets to whip your a$$es. Folks, your country has been totally taken over by a shady group that controls even your military and law enforcement:
Phoenix Business Journal -- Ariz. police say they are prepared as War College warns military must prep for unrest; IMF warns of economic riots
A new report by the U.S. Army War College talks about the possibility of Pentagon resources and troops being used should the economic crisis lead to civil unrest, such as protests against businesses and government or runs on beleaguered banks.
“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremes to defend basic domestic order and human security,” said the War College report.
The study says economic collapse, terrorism and loss of legal order are among possible domestic shocks that might require military action within the U.S.
U.S. Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., and U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., both said U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson brought up a worst-case scenario as he pushed for the Wall Street bailout in September. Paulson, former Goldman Sachs CEO, said that might even require a declaration of martial law, the two noted.
“We have well established plans in place for such civil unrest,” said Scottsdale Police spokesman Mark Clark.
http://tinyurl.com/3v9rfa
Question for those who trade the stock market: What value do you see yourselves adding to the economy?
It seems to me that the stock market is basically about moving money from one group of people to another, and that anybody making a profit is doing so at the expense of somebody else. In a rising market everyone feels like their wealth is increasing, but when the market tanks the money goes somewhere - I guess that most of it goes to traders who get out in time, to the detriment of pension funds and other vehicles for long-term, passive investors that can't move as quickly.
So how do you justify that to yourself? On what grounds do you feel you have earnt the money?
And if the answer is just 'being faster and smarter', then the big question - how is that really different from what Madoff did?
I'd quite like to enter the market myself, but I'm having a really hard time with the moral aspect of it.
Geez, I'd like to know why the current S&P with a P/E = 20 translates to "cheap", "time to buy", "bottom", "great opportunity". Really? Are you willing to put your money, in the middle of a depression (check the manufacturing Index around the world), in the S&P with a P/E of 20? You better stop being a bunch of banker's slaves.
Game over man,GAME OVER!
Right here in HB Ca., residents have been stealing food!
Food! - a basic neccessity!
People have much bigger problems - even in affluent areas - than worrying about where to place their money or whether they should keep renting or put a down-payment on an overpriced McMansion (we have plenty here rotting)
I don't know of anyone who can eat gold bars.
One very important point to keep in mind is that every time our government employees throw more of our (devaluating) money at all these failing institutions, our nieces and nephews, grandchildren, and their children's children are being guaranteed a life of slavery in the form of lower and lower living standards with decreasing wages.
Soon, it won't even matter if house prices drop another 50% percent from the median, no one will be able to afford them anyways since the dollar will be worth less than toilet paper.
Obama unfortunately is taking the "throwing money approach" to attempt resolving the problems we are now facing, when infact that will only accelerate the problem down the road - in the form of a huge tsunami of debt.
Yes, it's telling me that the dismal low volume chart right below indicates manipulation by the usual crooks. Pumping and dumping, as usual, trying to fool the sheeple that P/E of 24 is soooo cheap. Let me see, Yield of 1.8 and P/E of 24....wow, what a deal. Right.
Drop coming on Monday .
Dow goes to 10,500 to 11,000 by spring then market takes a new leg down mid to late 09 and will take out lows eventually over time as this bear market brings the final blood to the streets. People will be left with mouths open. I have been long close to bottom in the 8000 range. Will hold long unless market takes out lows until we hit above target zone. Then will exit longs wait for signal to go short and hold for taking out lows and long term target of fear bottom of 4000 to 5000 range! Then I'll cover shorts and buy high quality again. As this will probably be the greatest opportunity in our lifes over the next several years in stocks!
A Global Despression, far worse than what occurred in the 30's, will hit systematically in the coming months.
It's unfortunate that there are still people who equate reality with "gloom-and-doom" or "extreme pessimism".
I'd be a liar to say "everything is rosy and fine" - it's not.
I'm very saddened to see our new president fall right in line with the status quo, and he doesn't even realize that he too will go down with this sinking ship.
It's nice to know what is really going on ... in the myst of a financial storm (only to get far worse), the FBI is planning on hiring more and more agents, "experts"
http://snipurl.com/9jir5
More tax-payer dollars being thrown to an agency for the sole purpose of policing the nation.
* DISCLAIMER: I'm not giving stock, trading, or market advice. These are just my personal points of view for general discussion purposes. Don't make trading decisions on what I say above.
LOL.
This blog does not cease to entertain me.
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