January 14, 2009
How much longer until there are no gasoline-powered cars on the roads?
A) 20 years
B) 50 years
C) 100+ years
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A) 20 years
B) 50 years
C) 100+ years
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26 comments:
c
100 years, or more. The market will ration the commodity, just like it does with everything else, in the long run.
Will acceptable substitutes become available? Maybe. But it's hard to beat the power output, power density, and cost of gas and gasoline-powered vehicles and tools.
Even if we substantially improve battery tech, it'll likely be expensive and scarce, at least for awhile.
Is this battery tech going to be able to compete with gas based on price, performance, and weight for a weedeater, chainsaw, lawnmower, ATV, or motorcycle?
Look at a yamaha R6 motor, for example. It gets ~1hp/lb of weight. That's including the tranny.
In addition, most gasoline powered cars can be easily converted to run on propane or natural gas. Even if you accept the peak oil people's numbers and predictions, this would extend out the day of reckoning by decades or maybe even a century.
Cellulosic ethanol is another fuel that most motors could burn with little or no modification.
Norway oil production for 2009 will be down 9.7%
Mexico will be down ~15%
Russia will be down ~5%
UK, Indonesia, Venezuela, USA, China, Kuwait just to name a few are all in terminal decline
all countries above are involuntarily cutting production
the IEA finally acknowledge world oil depletion a.k.a Peak Oil in their WEO 2008
The housing bubble and credit crunch are small and trivial problems compare to the coming energy cliff.
there is not enough lithium in the world to supply 10% of the world's car fleet ditto for nickel, platinum and other rare earth metals use in battery technologies, IMHO
Cinch
The answer is when the world runs out of gasoline.
C) The match between the electric car and gas car happened over a hundred years ago.
And anyone who's ever owned an electric model car vs. gas model car knows the difference in power and endurance. Batteries will never offer the same power as gasoline.
And I'm starting to believe that gasoline prices may always stay the same. As our oil supplies go down from now on, we may be poorer because our economy is dependent on oil, and in many ways is oil. But it will be the more well off who will always be able to buy gas for their car. Just like it's mostly wealthy people today who fly.
I think it is our choice if we become poorer or wealthier with declining oil supplies. We squander our oil reserves by driving around in cars and flying in planes. We can use it as an investment to improve quality of life.
c
No electric trucks in sight
Better chuck the idea of scaring the landscape with millions of near worthless windmills and focus on nuclear if you ever want to see that happen.
Or we could just figure out what powered the Jettsons cars. Maybe magic. Now that's a plan.
Only when affordable alternatives are developed or when congress just outright bans them. Obama will need his civilian domestic security army to control everyone. Man-Made (not natural) global warming is a crock. Soon, we will not be able to fire up the ol' grill for burger and dogs.
You greens dream big, and deliver nothing.
The thing about a wet dream is once you blow your load you wake up and damn, theres reality again...........
Battery powered cars are the biggest wet dream out there.
I want to HEAR my engine, I want to dump the clutch on 400 horsepower and fight to keep the car moving straight, I WANT TO LIVE! Not exist in some EuroWeenie-land. Leave that to the Euro-Weenies themselves, or move there and become one.
Global warming is a
SCAM
JOKE
FAKE
MADE UP
UNPROVEN
MONEY STEALING
RESOURCE DIVERTING
BUNCH OF CRAP
It is a business, like snake oil sales.
TRUTH!
I'd go with the Jetson cars because they fold up into a briefcase which you can bring into the office.
We're not that far away from that now. I remember watching the Jetsons and lil' Boy Elroy had a TV watch. We got them now. How much longer till the tooth-brushing, face-shaving, get-your-ass-out-of-bed robots and fold-up cars are as ubiquitous as iPods today?
I'd say about 50 years.. (just kidding about the fold-up cars we already got those too).
I thought the world was actually cooling?where do these idiots get there data.clinton is clueless as usual.She should be scrubing toilets for the obamas.
Why would the rich give up their profits? It will not happen until they suck every last penny from their investments.
$5.00/gal in US by Summer.
Artificial shortages. Odd/Even 'Gas Days'
Are you ready?
Knew World Order. You have been warned, AGAIN dipshits.
In my area, since SUVs are dirt cheap and everywhere like assholes and soccer moms who used to own them in more prosperous times, all the Mexicans, legal and illegal varietyies at the car wash are suddenly driving big, gas guzzling SUVs with 30's on them...
At least the vehicles will provide shelter for the poor displaced hispanics when gas is unavailable...
America IS dead.
Just another way for these b.s.ers to create another industry costing lots of our money going into the pockets of ......(you fill in the many blanks).
Global warming (SORRY)eh..climate change, IS.......(fill in the blank).
Nobama says no new taxes just read my lips "Carbon Tax"
100 years.
They'll be rare in 20 years, but will probably be around practically forever. BTW, it's amusing that some posters here seem to be under the impression that those of us who think the automobile's days are numbered are environmentalists determined to rob them of their roaring engines!
.
Record low temperatures around the globe!
Snow in unusual places!
Sounds like global warming to me!
.
good riddance.
what about powering them w/ cow poop? or run the cow poop thru an anaerobic digestion process and power the engine with methane.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anaerobic_digestion
plenty of cow poop around.
Well, you won't see me sitting on a $hitload of electromagnetic field very soon. I rather get a VW or Benz diesel that has superior mileage, and run on used cooking oil if things get bad.
See all these folks getting brain tumors for having a cell phone glued to the head? Just wait for all the ball and p***y tumors after sitting all day on those batteries. Buh buh the gov said it was safe...it must be good, right?
Nobama says no new taxes just read my lips "Carbon Tax"
And guess which companies are going to issue and collect Carbon taxes? You got it, bankers like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.
Now you know your puppet masters.
We're not that far away from that now. I remember watching the Jetsons and lil' Boy Elroy had a TV watch.
I had a crush on Judy Jetson. I thought she was hot and bangable.
.
Sissy code-monkeys like to drive 1.8L electric shaver engines, like Prius. What a bunch of pu**ies.
.
100+....
there's no global warming. i'm freezing my nuts off today; and i heard it hit something like negative 39 in the midwest.
global warming: the biggest fraud in human history.
That miserable dried up old clam!
Can't wait for the electric 747
solar panels on the wings,
Electric semi's,
Heavy equipment!
Need I go on?
Global Warming is the Greatest HOAX forced upon our society!
.
This carbon offset tax...
if I fly and have to pay a Carbon offset fee because of supposed damage done to the environment,
Just how in the hell is my Offset fee going to repair the supposed damage done!
Or am I just lining someone's pockets (Al Gore)
Answer that please!
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