Been pretty much isolated and out-of-it for a week.
And I come back to more of the same, if not worse.
This "crisis" is spinning out of control folks.
It appears we are truly are heading to a Greater Depression.
And it's worldwide.
You think things are bad in the USA? Oh, dear god, go see what's happening elsewhere.
This is gonna take some time to work through.
As in, maybe a decade.
Or more.
The biggest speculative debt-fueled bubble in the history of humanity is unwinding.
And even I have no idea where it goes next.
But I've come to this conclusion, after my travels of the past few weeks.
The next stage is going to get dangerous.
Really, really dangerous.
Really, really, really, really, really dangerous.
Get ready.
If you can.
There will be no safe havens.
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59 comments:
People said it wouldn't get worse. As a matter of fact the genius analysts, real estate brokers, and our fearless government kept saying the worst was behind us. But you know what?
I say this is beginning of the end. The worst is yet to come.
Thanks geniuses for ignoring reality. Thanks for telling everyone that debt, laziness, and corruption were the path to wealth.
Thanks Barney Frank for bailing out the crooks, you bastard.
Welcome home Keith!
I have been around a tad myself domestically of late and man it is not nearly as good in some places than others and people who don't see it just don't realize it.
Toronto Canada was not long ago and talk about 100's of thousands of condos for sale with zero buyers. Kansas City was dark after 8 and desolite downtown. I thought a siren must have went off or something, it was weird and scary.
I don't know where we are heading, but I can tell you that I can't wait to get their and then leave because I don't think I am going to like it at all...
why is everyone so scared of frugality?
frugality is a good thing.
things aren't getting bad or worse you dummies,we are just going back to normal.
and what is wrong with that?
Keith please explain dangerous......thanks
Yeah, I'm not feeling too good about 09 either. I love listening to trendsforecaster Gerald Celente, and agree with many things he says.
retail collapse is coming, then commercial real estate, then all the regional banks that financed the commercial sector, and so we go in 09.
Also, look to Oakland as a preview of what's coming to a city near you as it all comes undone.
Social order will now break down.
Governments will fail.
Currencies will fail.
Companies will fail.
Countries will fail.
This crisis will now head to the streets, as cold, jobless and broke people rise up.
That's how I see dangerous.
You ain't seen nothing yet.
I see a mad dash for safe havens, that simply don't exist. I see people wanting revenge. I see millionaires who can't afford to eat. I see confusion. I see desperation. I see revenge.
Keith can you expand on your observations while abroad? What did you see and how was it different? Am in SF...personally I don't have too much to add, except 2nd round of layoffs at work, 20% pay cut to go w/ less hours ...My Trader Joe's has no food, really wiped out for 4 days in a row..go in after the gym regularly. (Could be a buyer's boo boo, or their supplier is having problems?
Which is why now is a great time to buy!!
I see millionaires who can't afford to eat.
---------------------------
did a couple of billionaires off themselves last week?
A riot in Oakland.
Seems very similar to Greece. The police killing was probably just a trigger.
Keith
What happened in the last week that brought you to this conclusion. Did you read The Long Emergency or something?
If true, what's the plan? A grand council of the Soot and Ashes brotherhood?
Keith:
Glad you are back. other thread, let's change the subject. WHAT EXACTLY (sorry caps) did you "see" to think things are so bad?
"I see a mad dash for safe havens, that simply don't exist. I see people wanting revenge. I see millionaires who can't afford to eat. I see confusion. I see desperation. I see revenge."
_____________________________________
I am glad you can see all that stuff Keith...
Now let me tell you what I hear...
A deranged blogger who has let the housing bubble erode any sense of reality...Get a grip my Man.
A columnist in Baltimore's City Paper described shopping in a fine china outlet store as feeling like 'picking the meat off the dead, rotting corpse of Bush America'. That is how I feel too. When I go into a store, I feel the desperation of the store owners and the clerks. Buy something, please. Keep us alive for a little longer, please. Pretend it's all still okay, PLEASE?
But we all know it's not. We're all scared and not exactly sure of what we're scared of.
Don't worry. Obama told me that deficits don't matter. We simply HAVE to spend more trillions to "save the economy". All the economists agree, says Obama.
Wait a second... Dick Cheney also said "deficits don't matter" didn't he?
Yeah, wait until the new thieves arrive in Washington with the latest Ponzi scheme, "Global Warming". Oh yeah, it's melting out there:
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The temperature for the U.S. in 2008 was near the annual average experienced since 1895 and below normal for December, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
Across the U.S., December bought an average temperature of 32.5 degrees, 0.9 degrees below the long-term norm. As a region, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin had its 10th-coldest December on record.
December snowstorms produced more than 2,000 daily snowfall records in the U.S. Satellite data show that 6.8 million square miles (17.6 million square kilometers) of North America were covered by snow in December, 0.4 million square miles above the 1966 to 2008 average.
Average precipitation last year was 30.48 inches, 1.34 inches above the long-term norm.
Prepare the wallet, highly influenced-sheeple-who believes in any lie, because Al Gore and Pelosi are coming for it. You do realize that Carbon trade is a transfer of taxpayer money to bankers like Paulson and Madoff, right?
.
THIS CRISIS WAS CREATED BY DESIGN. BUY GUNS, STORE FOOD, AND GET A BUNKER.
.
"Oh, dear god, go see what's happening elsewhere."
Please, be so kind as to elaborate.
things aren't getting bad or worse you dummies,we are just going back to normal.
and what is wrong with that?
Oh yeah, a REAL unemployment rate of almost 20% is soooo normal. Can't you see that riots commence at such high rates? I hope they rape you, clueless f*ck.
retail collapse is coming, then commercial real estate, then all the regional banks that financed the commercial sector, and so we go in 09.
Don't forget airlines and automakers. And the thing is, it's not just here in the US but EVERYWHERE.
Keith,
You must be suffering from split personality. A couple weeks ago you were screaming "MOABO" "MOABO" "MOABO". Now because the stocks are taking another small hit, there is blood on the street. You have been right about the housing downturn (which was pretty obvious) but other than that, you changing faces a bit and it's obvious. Please don't get me wrong, I also agree that there is something worse coming, I just wanted you to take a little time before start screaming recovery in the new future.
positiv
That is just in the first few weeks... then panic, desperation, denial, and all of the rest of the most ugliest emotions come out in full bloom.
Unfortunately, Keith is very correct.
This Depression (which is only in the initial stages) is going to be far worse than anything, anyone imagined.
In a few years, many people (across all income brackers) will be worrying more about what they're going to eat as compared to where they're interested in squirreling their money at.
Here in HB Ca. (and all along the coast), stores are more, and more empty. There are fewer cars on the road, and their doesn't appear to be any end in site.
Car, trucks, boats, motorbikes - all with forsale signs - and no takers.
I can't wait. I am ready.
I simply saw the beginnings of the breakdown of society.
I saw people rushing to the currency exchange after getting paid, lining up to get out of their currency and into dollars and euros.
I saw the first glimpse of the upcoming resource wars, as gas deliveries stopped.
I felt the building anger of the people toward their corrupt leaders, who will be overthrown, perhaps violently.
I heard tales of corruption, as people with positions of authority attempt to raise cash, particularly dollars, any way they could.
I saw stores full of expensive designer goods, with no buyers in sight.
I saw unfinished condos and buildings everywhere, the work having stopped, the cranes hovering over the carcasses which now serve as soaring reminders of what got us into this mess.
And I sensed a growing anger toward the banks, and bankers. I wouldn't be surprised to see the people burn down the banks, and go after the bankers where they live and on the streets.
And I felt a particular hostility towards the United States, the country seen as causing this crisis through its negligence, incompetence, corruption and lies.
The next leg of the crisis will be social unrest, as people adjust to their new reality, and many, now jobless, cold, hungry and desperate, strike out in anger, looking for someone, anyone to blame.
I went down to the Dollar Store today to pick up a coffee maker. Coffee makers don't seem to last more than a year regardless of price so I usually go for el cheapo. The place was so wiped out, I thought they were closing and selling off remaining inventory. The manager, who I know, tells me that they can't keep product on the shelf, business is so good. They used to get deliveries once a week, now are up to four times a week, and still can't keep up. I swear, the "loaded" shelves were lucky to be 50% full, a lot were completely bare.
I read an article earlier this year that explained how the incomes of your bottom-of-the-barrel chain retailers are used by the industry as sort of a reverse bell-weather. Doesn't look good.
They were out of coffee makers too. DAMMIT!
For sale: blue water schooner- 60 foot. Water maker, solar panels and offshore ready. Well maintained and can be ready to go within 72 hours.
Situated within thirty minutes of the Golden Gate.
The Oracle with Max Keier
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOjHB12YzeU
things aren't getting bad or worse you dummies,we are just going back to normal.
and what is wrong with that?
-------------------------------------
Oh yeah, a REAL unemployment rate of almost 20% is soooo normal. Can't you see that riots commence at such high rates? I hope they rape you, clueless f*ck.
-----------------------------------
hey anon-moron,high unemployment and riots are symptoms of financial downturns,not necessarily the end of the world.
it's not my fault you aren't smart enough.you are a one-trick pony standing in line waiting for the government to solve your problems and to make you a better person,just like 95% of people in this country.
I feel sorry for most of you...
You have no idea how bad it is.. I was in home depot yesterday and not one but 2 employees ask me if I needed help.
I'm heading for the bomb shelter.
The next leg of the crisis will be social unrest, as people adjust to their new reality, and many, now jobless, cold, hungry and desperate, strike out in anger, looking for someone, anyone to blame.
Top trend forecaster, Gerald Celente, has been predicting exactly that Keith. Civil unrest and revolution. Just another good reason why you should all listen to the Alex Jones Show at www.infowars.com.
You get all of the big names and none of the BS that passes for news in the mainstream. His guests run the gamut including Ron Paul, Peter Schiff, Irwin Schiff, Nader, Gerald Celente, Max Keiser and big Hollywood stars speaking what they really feel on false flag terror like 9/11 and everything else including Jesse Ventura, Willie Nelson, Charlie Sheen and many many more...
So tune in and let everyone else you know know. It really is the best show out there.
Cat out of bag ,horse out of barn.
The people now know what happened .
What can you say ,be prepared for anything . I'm getting the same feeling that Charleston Heston got in Planet of the Apes when he saw
the destroyed Statue of Liberty at the end of the movie and he realized that the
jerks blew it .
I live in Osaka, Japan. There's a few things I'd like to add to Keith's points.
Japan is perhaps the 2nd hardest hit country from this economic crisis. Dropping manufacturing orders and a rising yen does not make a good environment for this export-dependent nation. The government is trillions in debt, with a debt to GDP ratio of 3:1. Retail has all but collapsed and stores are essentially giving merchandise away at prices of up to 80% off. Millions of temp workers have seen contracts annulled right under them.
However, if there is a first world country that will pull itself out of this crisis it will be Japan. There is something here in the people that is not found in America, G.Britain or any other European nation (maybe except the Germans): A disciplined work ethic and a willingness to get the job done regardless of personal cost. The slothful and quick-rich mentality simply does not mesh well with traditional society.
That being said, an aging population and xenophobic culture doesn't help it either. The federal government here is also ineffective, with squabbling politicians playing musical chairs for the Prime Minister-ship.
What is happening over there?
What have you seen, experienced first hand?
Be careful, Americano abroad. I think you are correct. How this will play out is with civil unrest.Don't be in the wrong place at the wrong time. You know things are going down the crapper, and just being a smart guy one step ahead may not be enough when things blow up.
Poor Obama got handed a truck full of crap.
am very worried. Roads are quiet, stores are quiet, everyone is worried..
If people get hungry the government will provide tents and soup lines ,or better yet full meals .
To think that all this jazz had to do with a bunch of people wanting to make money off of greater fools in a Ponzi-scheme . Where did all that money go ? Paulson still has all of his wealth ,Senator Dodds still is a major voice in the Senate with his low rate no fee loan from his friends ,who still have their money . Out with all of them .
The situation doesn't seem so bad when you're in the happy-go-lucky country land of Oz.
People here have a sense of unease, but not anger. Example: our best local friends, a left-leaning bourgeois couple who had just retired at age 60, had to make major life changes after they lost big on the sharemarket. "Superannuation" (a person's retirement fund) is privatised here, like Bush wanted to do with Social Security in the U.S. When the market tanked, there went their ability to live when they got older.
These friends had to sell their house in a nice inner-city suburb last month, move into a rental and go back to work part-time. They had JUST achieved their dream of easy living, and now they're back to the grind.
But are they angry? Not like me and my wife, disgruntled leftists that we are. Lots of Aussies, like the Brits of old, do the "stiff upper lip" bit, blame themselves, and buckle down to making the best of what they can do with the situation. There's not as much pissed-off-edness here as there is in Eastern Europe or South America. Not saying there's no mad people, but it doesn't go as deep as in other places.
The cultural attitude might have something to do with the vagaries of life on this harsh continent. People know there's always the chance of bush fires, droughts, cyclones, plagues of locusts, invasions by Japanese or Indonesians or those bloody Kiwis looking for sheep to rape and pillage... They don't expect life to be smooth. And when it isn't, they're mentally prepared to deal with it.
People are less inclined to riot when they expect that life will knock them back. Instead of fighting back, they kick back.
It helps that the underlying cultural attitude is "No worries, mate. She'll be right," which is kind of like Inshallah is to Muslims or manana is to Mexicans. Meaning "I don't give a shit if there's no work today, because I can always find a beer, or scrape together something for a barbie, or go to the beach, or hang out with my mates."
One of the advantages to living in a country with high taxes is that there's not much incentive to put in a lot of extra hours on the job because the government's going to get a good chunk of your higher wages. So people are already in the habit of working less, having less stuff, but having more time to have fun.
It also helps relieve social tension to live in a land of wide open spaces. Petrol's under a dollar a litre again, so my wife and I took a pleasure drive in the Prius this week through a lovely wine valley on the western edge of the local forested mountain range. Sweeping vistas over low peaks, small farms, hundreds of kilometres of eucalypts... And hardly a soul around. The beaches are the same way -- miles of surf and sand with almost no one in sight. And don't get me started about the deserts, which I'm content to leave for others. Aside from the capital cities and the Gold Coast strip in Queensland (Oz's answer to Miami Beach) there's hardly anyone on the land. Takes down the tension level considerably.
Times will get tough here, especially because global warming is already making the local climate drier. But the state where I live has huge power plants with lots of dirty coal to burn. Bad for greenhouse gases, but when the collapse comes and the Big Die-Off eliminates a couple billion people from the planet, that won't be such a factor any more. I've got lots of popcorn and a continent-sized bolthole from which to watch the horror show. That's why my wife and I chose to escape Down Under.
I hope things turn out better than you expect, Keith. But in case they don't -- and I tend to agree with your doompster viewpoint -- take heart in the knowledge that not everyone is going down with the shit.
"I simply saw the beginnings of the breakdown of society.
I saw people rushing to the currency exchange after getting paid, lining up to get out of their currency and into dollars and euros.
I saw the first glimpse of the upcoming resource wars, as gas deliveries stopped."
...
"I saw stores full of expensive designer goods, with no buyers in sight.
I saw unfinished condos and buildings everywhere, the work having stopped, the cranes hovering over the carcasses which now serve as soaring reminders of what got us into this mess."
******
And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, it's a hard,
And it's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.
(S&A 2009 version)
I saw people rushing to the currency exchange after getting paid, lining up to get out of their currency and into dollars and euros.
Bearish for Gold.
Go Shorts!
How I'm Coping:
I am renting a tiny apartment in a very scenic rural area, have no debts and a small savings account. I am working two part-time jobs (without health insurance) to meet my reduced expenses. I hope I can ride this out. Assuming there is an end to it.
People, Keith is exactly right in everything he sees coming. Anybody that denies this will simply become a zombie due to the fact they will not be able to cope with radical change.
It is coming this year. Book it.
Joe M.
Whatever you do, do NOT listen to anyone in the mainstream media. They are all liars. They are all lying about the real situation out here because they 1) don't want to serve as a force that will push us into depression even faster than we are heading, and 2) their job is to always be sunny-side up and say things are great...to do otherwise does not make good TV; in fact, it hurts them since people will turn them off and go do something else with their time.
The economists, news pundits, and banksters are saying we will start coming out of this in the second half of 2009. Right. These are the same people who didn't even see all of this coming. And these are the same people who just last month announced we have been in recession for an entire 12 months...funny; when there are two quarters of contracting GDP we are officially in recession...what took them another six months to announce it! They are worthless!
The MSM has become completely discredited as a result of the housing collapse and the global financial crisis.
The truth will be found in blogs...i.e. through the people of America. Keep reading and participating in the New Media - regardless of your political affiliations - and you will best be able to protect yourself.
To come: more huge job losses, more bankruptcies, commercial real estate implosion (NYC has just imploded...it's dead); more house price implosion, increasing crime, soon-to-be civil unrest, lots of blame game, and generally just a completely shitty situation for a long time. Does anyone really believe we'll be turning things around in six months like the MSM, banksters, and news pundits say?...HA! Anyone who listens to these fuckers and acts according to what they say is STUPID. When you read the MSM, just reverse everything it says and you will get the truth.
By the way, the Wall Street Journal announced today that the real unemployment rate is 13.5%, not the official 7.2%. The WSJ rate is based on Dept. of Labor stats that use a similar methodology to that used during the Great Depression, which includes discouraged workers and under-employed people, mostly part-timers.
What is frightening is that the real unemployment rate shot up 50% from Dec. 2007 when it was 8.7% to 13.5% in Dec. 2008...This is staggering!! It is unprecedented!!
We're hosed, plain and simple.
So true that the unrest is in the air . Won't take long for it to start to unfold . To bad bail-out money was wasted on keeping some of the bag-holders from taking their losses
instead of saving money for food and
trailers for the starving .
"The Oracle with Max Keier"
--------------------------------
LOVE Max Keiser and his new gig.
Must see tv.
it's not my fault you aren't smart enough.you are a one-trick pony standing in line waiting for the government to solve your problems and to make you a better person,just like 95% of people in this country.
Hey dumb f*ck or globalist, you have no idea whats coming. But when it comes you will be the weasal crawling around licking boots hoping a real men will defend you. You will understand then no one gives a f*ck about you or if you get raped and eaten. Real men are those with a soul, those who understand the phrase "the commen good". Empathy is not in your soul. You will get what you deserve. I only wish I could be there to watch you beg weaker men for help, Ha. Thats all right this country is full of 3 foot tall self appointed tough guys like you. Your future will be played out on every street corner in this country.
Ok, I will be the contrarian. . .I spent three weeks in Zurich over Christmas - the stores were packed, the ski areas had long lines (because of great snow conditions), and the unemployment rate in Switzerland is about 3%. . . .if there is any place that might be safe, it is Switzerland. That said, Switzerland has the highest "turn-away" rate of any European nation for arriving flights - they go over the manifest before the plane arrives, and keep out people they don't want. . .the SVP (the right wing anti-immigration party) is getting stronger each election, as Switzerland pulls up the moat. . .Like the Japanese, the Swiss are hard working, thrifty, and loyal to Swiss products. . .during WWII, they were cut off from the world, and survived on their own agriculture (lots of cheese and meat), own electricity - massive hydro-power, and one nuke to power 9.5 million people.
Back here in San Diego, the weather is fine, so if I have to live in a homeless camp, at least I won't freeze to death when my money is gone.
"A riot in Oakland."
The left is trying to reproduce Greece.
The way I see it playing out is like: the black/latino community burns its hood down. Whoops there is no money this time to fix it and your fucked. The whites decide to give IOUs to the government for taxes -- they are broke.
Gas being turned off? Sounds like Keith was in Eastern Europe. That is Russia sending a message. But if people have no money they cannot drive or pay their bills anyways. So, I expect the commodities prices to continue to collapse.
Real value is the only thing that pays right now. Not paper pushers. I'd say have half in cash and the other half in physical gold. Then let theory work its way and at least you'll have something.
Anon said:
‘I live in Osaka, Japan. There's a few things I'd like to add to Keith's points.’
‘There is something here in the people that is not found in America, G.Britain or any other European nation (maybe except the Germans)’
How little has changed.
I generally respect the Japanese people (mostly for not becoming romanized/christianized) but never understood how Japan allied with such polar opposite fat ass lazy uber ignorant Germans during WWII.
Keith's post of 5:12 am sounded just like Dylan's 'Hard Rain Gonna Fall'
Anton Chigurh
Yeahh! Mayhem!
Every country deserves a good round of it when those in charge and those who own everything think they can continually f everyone.
Germany will emerge, tied to the Vatican. The Holy Roman Empire will again rise up, after the US falls.
At what point do the people rise up?
When all the sports stadiums, TV programs, and fast food chains get shut down. (never)
These days people are too fat and stupid to rise up. It's a nice thought, but I gave up on it a while ago.
Would I light the fuse myself? Hell no! Why would I want to get me or my family killed to try to save a bunch of ungrateful, backstabbing, idiotic sheep? Fuck them, they deserve their fate. If our founding fathers knew what future "americans" would have been like, do you think they still would have fought? Or would they have just said, "What's the point?"
These days I pretty much just stockpile food, ammo, and camping supplies and keep these things between me and my family...I don't even talk about corrupt politics with my coworkers anymore, they'll find out because they seem to know all the answers, and of course I'm always wrong.
Save the people you love, and fuck everyone else. Nobody cares about you or your families safety as much as you do, not the police, not the politicians, not the courts...you and YOU ALONE! While you or someone you love is getting the @#%$ stabbed or beaten out of them, these people will be watching football and slamming beer, don't count on these sheep for ANYTHING. Open your eyes and start thinking about who would betray you if things ever collapsed. Start thinking about how loyal your beer buddies really are. Start thinking about what kind of crowd you are in. Do you know someone who does anything to get what they want, and doesn't care who they hurt in order to get it? If your "buddy" can't even pay you back $5 for a pack of smokes, is he going to be able to give you back some food in return for whatever he "borrowed"? How well do you REALLY know those people across the street?
Start thinking about shit like that...because it matters!
anon-moron said:
"Hey dumb f*ck or globalist, you have no idea whats coming. But when it comes you will be the weasal crawling around licking boots hoping a real men will defend you. You will understand then no one gives a f*ck about you or if you get raped and eaten.
Real men are those with a soul, those who understand the phrase "the commen good". Empathy is not in your soul. You will get what you deserve. I only wish I could be there to watch you beg weaker men for help, Ha. Thats all right this country is full of 3 foot tall self appointed tough guys like you. Your future will be played out on every street corner in this country."
nothing in my comments would suggest that I'm a globalist,I'm not. and what's with the whole rape thing again?
riots? why until now? it's too late now.I don't live in fear of what I see coming like you.
I know what is like to go hungry
I know what is like to be shot at
I now what is like to fight for survival, you don't
and believe me,it isn't so bad after a while.you too will get used to it.and that's what I've been trying to say all along.
I blame the people just as much the politicians and bankers for this mess,and it's now time to pay the price for decades of irrational exuberance...
by the way:"the commen good"?
try:"the common good"
by the way:"the commen good"?
Hey buddy you just made my point. Sooooo predictable. You will be eliminated from gene poll shortly. Good riddence. Word processer=intellegence=elitism.
After this crisis, I wouldn't be surprised to see some Eastern European countries want to go back to Russia. Because the West and capitalism f*cked them pretty good.
riots? why until now? it's too late now.I don't live in fear of what I see coming like you.
I know what is like to go hungry
I know what is like to be shot at
I now what is like to fight for survival, you don't
You don't know sh*t. Sell that crap to someone else. I grew up in the US. In a part of it where the saying "man's man and your own man" had real meaning. You are no warrior or tough guy. Your a pretender. I would try to explain what hard men are but only a hard man could truely understand. You sound like John McShitstain.
OK-Assuming you are all correct about the gloom and doom to come, please tell me what I am supposed to do-In general-what to do to prepare, both financially and otherwise?
"...their job is to always be sunny-side up and say things are great...to do otherwise does not make good TV; in fact, it hurts them..."
Eh? Last I checked, bad news sells...
WTF1920,
Your words are wise. You are one of the few that truly get it.
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