"I don't know about you guys. But I sure as hell don't feel like we are in a recession let alone a depression. The stores are full, restaurants have waiting lines, and as far as I can tell Keith there are no riots breaking out in my city. So much for spreading fear and panic Sashers. Perhaps you folks live in another dimension?"
- Anon homedebtor or realtor or crazy person, January 30
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49 comments:
Never knew what hit him.
By the way, the restaurants here are empty. Ghost towns. Not a single diner in many of them at 7pm.
I'd like to know what cities still have full restaurants. And no, I'm not talking McDonalds.
Serious question.
Bangkok restaurants still have lots of people. That's a big city with lots of people w/ money to spend.
Tourism is way down though. Go-go bars are empty and are ready to close.
Decent restaurants are still packed. People here are still spending since most of them spend from savings vs debt.
However factory workers in the export business are getting crushed. My guess is the crash here is still months away.
-Mike H
We may be living in another dimension, and that in and by itself is not a bad thing at all, especially if one compares it to people who have a severe case of dementia.
Dementia has many forms that have symptoms similar to Alzheimer's. It can cause the loss of the ability to remember, think and reason. Obviously those symptoms apply to the anon person who posted those ridiculous comments.
The Germans are relocating us to nice, sanitary new houses in a place called Aushwitz mom. I'll call you from the lobby when we get there. I love the Germans, they are such nice people and snappy dressers too...
Ring any Bells?...
I used to try and explain to people just how badly screwed our economy truly is .They looked at me like i was mad .It finally dawned on me that they just don't want to know .I have prepared my family as best i can , i plan for the worst and hope for the best .These days news of the economy is in your face and it is getting harder to deny . I just smile when i here these folks talk about Obama and how he will fix the situation i say dumb stuff like i hope so . But hope simply in hope is no hope at all . It must be based on a sound knowledge of the facts and of appropriate action taken. My heart goes out to these people but i am sick of being thought of as a doom and gloomer just because i am willing to face the facts no matter how grim .I actually had one person whom i know to be in huge credit card debt, accuse me and people like me of making the problem worse because we are not spending with abandon at this time .
To this remark i think to myself enjoy the soup line ....
Denial is just a river in Egypt.
Portland, OR still looks okay but with regional unemployment at 8% I'm not sure how long this can last. Restaurants still look full, mall parking spaces are full, and sporting events are packed.
He is right.No rcession here.Bars are packed and budwieser selling.
Not just Restaurants and Malls. My friend is a dog groomer / college student and works part time at Petco. She has not groomed a dog in 2 days, a record. Usually 10 dog in line.
went to an amusement park in CA that was pretty packed off-season in the middle of January. however, the demographics appear quite different from about 1-2 years ago. saw a lot fewer hispanics at the park than before, which might be because a large % of home "purchases" in CA were by hispanics near the peak of the housing bubble (based on top last names of home "buyers").
a fairly expensive steak house nearby had over a 90 minute wait to get in, and it was full.
elsewhere, clothing stores seem to be getting hit the hardest.
still lots of open house, short sale, and foreclosure signs that weren't around over a year ago.
check out the California top "buyer" last names in 2000 vs 2005
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2006-05-10-hispanic-homeowners_x.htm
or
http://preview.tinyurl.com/awtjrf
It's true things can work out...The Gov is borrowing from the taxpayers with the hope that a new energy policy(a very positive initiative)rebuilding infrastructure(also positive) and of course taking care of citizens(that creates jobs as well). Obama is no dummy, he is a bright guy and might have more morals than most politicians. If it all works out we could have a booming economy, lower taxes, healthcare, and a surplus instead of debt. How this all unfolds is how the american citizen reacts to the changes needed in everyday american life. I believe we'll know the outcome either way by the end of 2009. Seriously, please remember 95% of the people are doing just fine.
Keefer,
Regarding your comment... don't people in London eat later than 7pm, especially on the weekend?
Maybe you were early.
Maybe it's the unusually cold weather keeping them in. Maybe, maybe, maybe.
-Mike
We used to have two 5 star restaurants here in Cincinnati. One closed last year. The other closed last week. They said in the newspaper article that they still had diners but they were spending way less.
"...It finally dawned on me that they just don't want to know...i am sick of being thought of as a doom and gloomer just because i am willing to face the facts..."
Ditto here in San Diego. But consider the bright side.
That altruistic impulse works against our self-interest; the less people prepare the more effective our preparation becomes.
Mike - I live in a village on the coast now... but I hear London is getting kicked in the teeth, especially around Canary Wharf and The City, especially the high end places
Keith, I'm seing mixed data. I live in Fort Lauderdale and yes, malls and restaurants are always full. But at the same time, I see a lot of stores closing. I think what's happening is people are going out maybe once a week intead of twice, that's enough to keep some of these places full. Also, even if the mall is full, I don't know if people are buying things or just walking around.
If one took a time machine back to a sunny day in 1932, and went into a department store, you would see "normal" events. . .my grandfather had to drop out of University of Chicago (due to lack of money) and worked as a "soda jerk" in a department store restaurant. . .he always said things were pretty normal, but everyone had little money. . .people doubled up, and trippled up, living with parents, friends, etc. People pooled their money . . .yes, there were soup lines, but there have been soup lines here in CA and NY and other places for over 20 years now (the homeless in San Francsico are ledgendary). . .
My grandfather said movie theaters were crowded (cost a nickle and there was no TV), and cheap restaurants were usually crowded. One has to remember that 75% of the people were still working, and they often helped the other 25% who were unemployed. . .
The BIG question is, how will this generation deal with downsizing? Will there be riots when people can't afford a night out at Olive Garden? Will people quietly move back in with parents?. . .what I am seeing here in SD. . .the expensive restaurants are down about 20% (according to local newspapers), but cheap places are still doing ok. I would guess we have about 5 years of grinding downsizing . . .one restaurant closing at a time, one retailer in liquidation at a time. . .it will be a different landscape in 5 years.
"Mad As H*** said...
We used to have two 5 star restaurants here in Cincinnati."
Is that a state? Is that where Johnny Fever has a radio show?
No 5 stars in WKRP land? Try the cheese doodles backed up with a gallon of soda...
Here in foreclosure central (AKA California) there is a phenomenon no one has mentioned.
There are tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people living absolutely FREE in stucco palaces. It takes the banks 1 year or more to kick someone out and during that time we have people that aren't making mortgage payments or paying rent.
Some people stop paying, get a notice from the bank 3 months later telling them they are going to be foreclosed on, then nothing, the banks just kinda ignore them and their 1 year clock has not even started.
That makes a lot of extra dollars floating around.
Still, its not so fun because they know it will end so they are out there doing "comfort" consumption. When that all plays out and the free rides stop look for a BIG drop in CA!
We tax payers will bail-out the gamblers for wrecking our economy and now the bubble gamblers are out dining on our dime.
GT Charlie
The big mall here in Northern Wiscosnin is empty during the week. On the weekend we get a few tourists with dollars to spend on bargains. I am getting sick and tired of people asking me when something is going to be 90% off.
Kenduffelsniffenspotzen
Malls can look busy but not be generating revenues. My teenage kids go to the mall often but it is primarily a social event as a place to see their friends with only an occasional purchase. All those kids there can make a mall look "busy." I belive the next 'time bomb' (or maybe two or three 'bombs' from now) will be when businesses start reporting their 2008 results - with losses or big declines in profitability. The banks of leveraged companies will have to downgrade their customers' loans which requires additional reserves (and an immediate hit to the banks' bottom line). This will be the real BEGINNING of the effects of the recession on the banking system.
Great Twilight Zone episode that addresses the issues of denial, panic, and "preparedness": The Shelter.
Watch it and in just 25 minutes you'll get a summary of events over the next five years.
O I live in the bubble epicenter. High end LA. Everywhere I go it is packed with shoppers. Every resturant has a wait. If you bought b4 2004 u r doing just fine. People with No money, No job made the suicide purchase. So I went to San Diego, Ontario, Wash DC, Orlando, Boston all over SoCal there is no resturant going out recession. All the high paying don't really exist Realtards and BROKErs are gone. Those were fake incentive intermediary jobs.
I second what anon 1:40 said. They nailed it. Same thing in in the Phoenix metro area.
I was down in St. Thomas, VI vacationing last week. This is their peak season and clearly business is hurting down there. I got 50% off a sail/snorkel cruise because they just want to keep operating (big bucks for my family of 4.) From talking with the local yokels I hear that restaurants and all other businesses are seeing a slowdown. A year ago they thought they were immune from events on the mainland. Now, not so much...
I tried to get into a Stanford on a tuesday evening at 7:30. they said it would be a 40 min wait and I believed them because the waiting area was full as was the bar.
a tuesday night. WTF?
regarding the stanford post. that was in portland oregon.
Las Vegas IS another dimension.
The new breast implants MUST have a place to make their grand entrance, wearing nothing but a patch and a strap, or two. Watch the poor little guys in the patio swoon, attempting to get a hook into one of them, poor slobs just can't close the deal. The new breast implants MUST make cell phone calls, many of them, and they MUST hang themselves over the black rod iron railing overlooking Valet.
The sports personalities MUST have a place for Valet to back up their exotic driving machines, silky motors humming, no smoke puffing from these pipes, snuggling up close to the patio diners and the rod iron railing.
The newly puffed up lips MUST have a place to pucker those big monkey butt lips for all average women to see and admire, and want some of their own. Watching them navigate those big butt-like lips around a straw is pure art. I know I'm staring. Stop it.
Kona, the show is FREE.
Can we get an update on the Cheesecake Factory at Natick Mall?
I'm seeing a little crumbling around the edges in Melbourne, but not outright falling-off-a-cliff. Then again, Australia is generally two years behind the rest of the world (and sometimes 20.)
Footpaths are still thronged in the downtown shopping streets, except for last week when there were three days of 43+ degree temperatures. (Hottest stretch since they started keeping records in 1854, global warming deniers.) I don't go to malls, don't shop much in general, so I can't say how much buying is happening. It was slightly easier to book a table in a good French restaurant for Valentine's Day, and they seemed more appreciative of the business than Froggy restos usually are.
The newspaper is thinner, especially the real estate section. Figures from the real estate shills say median prices declined slightly in the high-priced suburbs, but are still rising in the outer belt where they have big, American-style free-standing homes. The number of sales was off 25% last year compared to the year before.
It used to be that on my 500-metre walk to the tram stop, I'd see three or four signs advertising auctions of individual flats in the apartment blocks here. (Not foreclosure auctions. Most places in this state are sold by an auctioneer who's spruiking to people who have toured the home and try to out-bid each other on the day of the sale. It's that Aussie love of competition and gambling.) Now there might be one. So the glow is coming off.
Victoria is not as reliant on mining as West Australia and parts of the northern states. Some mines have started to close, but these are in Outback towns, so the overnight mass unemployment is not immediately visible. The knock-on effects down the supply chain and the consumer economy are not yet widespread.
Our friends and my workmates seem to realise something bad is coming. The media is replete with stories about disaster. However, they seem to regard it like a cyclone that has formed somewhere in the Pacific and is headed this way, but the wind and rain have not started ripping their roofs off yet. They're worried, but not yet battening the hatches.
Most people don't have the mental capacity to react strongly until a crisis hits. It's human nature. Makes me feel better about my own chances, though. It's like the old joke about the two guys surprised by the bear -- punchline of "I just have to run faster than YOU." As long as I'm better prepared than the rest of THEM, I reckon they'll get eaten first.
"I don't know about you guys. But I sure as hell don't feel like we are in a recession let alone a depression."
Wake up then.
"The stores are full, restaurants have waiting lines."
Pfft, big deal. Walmart and Mcdonalds are always packed. That doesn't mean everythings somehow ok.
WTF? It doesn't apply to your neighborhood, ergo it doesn't exist? The ancient Greeks called those who withdrew from public affairs "private persons", or "idiotes". In the Classical sense of the word, this poster sounds like a real idiot!
If this means I live in a different dimension, or at least a different moral universe, I'll take that as a compliment.
Redlands, CA
Stores are busy. Restaurants are full. Workers say receipts are smaller though.
Although the small mom and pop places in old strip malls are getting killed.
Unemployment is 11.2%
Mark in San Diego asked:
"The BIG question is, how will this generation deal with downsizing? Will there be riots when people can't afford a night out at Olive Garden?"
-----------------
No, but there will be riots when people can't afford groceries.
all you doomers should just shut up
if everyone keeps spending
it gives me more time to prepare
Fear? What fear? A single woman with 6 kids living with mom, taking fertility drugs having 8 more puppies the world has to be good, right?
New York City is BUSY. Bars full, many restaurants I cant get reservations. But people cutting back on retail,vacations,real-estate, etc. So it all depends on where you live. Different social elements. Over here people still want to be social.
Houston still seems like its living on the afterglow of $140 oil. But then our houses never went up much. Restaurants are packed on Friday and Saturday nights. Probably not for long as Oil and Oil service companys are starting to cut staff in response to $40 oil.
Went to the big-box home store a week ago at 8pm looking for a file to sharpen a hand saw. I think there were 3 other customers in the store. I started browsing a bit and left because every store employee that saw me hounded me.
Is 8pm late? I think the place is open until 9-10pm. When I last worked retail 20 years ago we had people right up until close.
I have to agree with anon. There is no difference to me either. I have been suffering the same economic catastrophe pretty much for the past six years now.
Besides myself, just beneath the skin things are starting to look bad. Many vacant commerical spaces. Rush hour traffic very light. It seems that the other shoe has dropped. But housing remains very unaffordable.
I've been to NY,NJ,DC,LA,Orlando,Sydney,SF,Auckland Philly. No recession in sight. Line in EVERY resturant.
unfortunitely, Bay Street in Emeryville still has lots of diners at the various restaurants: PFChangs, Elephant Bar, Calif. Pizza Kitchen Buckhorns, etc....these restaurant zombies are still taking their kids out to eat while Rome burns.
Thinking about buying MCDonalds stock, but I'm holding back until I can figure out if its going to split or drop back 20 points.
A local bay area restuarant chain, the Black Angus has filed for bankrupty.
The CA Riviera (Laguna Beach, Newport, Newport Coast, Dana Point) is not immune. There's a huge backlog in luxury homes not selling. But sellers and realturds are still totally out of touch with P/E reality. Was at the Balboa Bay Club a few weeks ago - sunny, warm day -- normally should have been full and busy, but it was totally dead. No waiting lines at nice restaurants. I think people are spooked and waiting, watching. Orange County government budget is in crisis mode -- the Board of Supes are demanding mandatory furloughs for County employees. The employees' union is trashing the County leaders, demanding cuts at the top instead of slashing jobs. CA is on the brink and teetering. The State Treasurer is withholding tax refunds to taxpayers who are already desperate. This measure will only delay the inevitable. Calif -- once the 'golden state' has become so rusted I predict mass exodus within 5 years -- reverse of the Dust Bowl migration. The State will have to repeal Prop 13 (passed in mid-'70s as a 'tax-payer revolt', limits property tax increases to 2% per year with sales price as the baseline. Those who purchased their homes in the '70s, '80s, early '90s pay relatively little). Without the ability to raise property taxes willy-nilly, the CA legislature has had limited sources of income Unemployment in this state is around 13% and growing. Patrick.net covers the state of CA housing really well - clearly last vestige areas of the collapse are now infested. This thing has gone viral and its interesting to watch. Recent article in the LA Times describes churches as being places of last resort white middle class families are turning to for assistance.
Bukko_in_Australia said...
Can we get an update on the Cheesecake Factory at Natick Mall?
Haven't been to Natick since Xmass BUT i was in the Wrentham Factory Outlet stores Sunday. Packed. Filled with asian shoppers, looking to buy their heavily marketeted, big markup, brand names to maintain their materialistic, snobby way of life.
Why are asians soooo into labels and status brands? Pathetic really.
BTW ... all with big balances on their credit cards.
You guys are kidding right? Thinking that restaurants are the definitive litmus test of healthy/unhealthy economy?
Going out to dinner and socializing is still pretty cheap...and of course most decent restaurants will be full up on Fri. and Sat. nights.
That hopefully won't change - selfishly speaking should I survive round 3 of layoffs here, I still want to go out and try to enjoy myself.
Look around, the real indicators are: car sales, house sales, furniture and employment numbers; they showour economy is very unhealthy. The facts are in.
I got re-deployed after the dot.com in SF, lost lots of $, kept that fact to myself, consumed way less, but still went out when I could and bought a few things here and there. Needed to stay somewhat social and viable. (I think others do this too -that's why you will still see crowded restaurants and active stores).
I think many restaurants and stores will survive...the excess will be wrung out...everything is not going to close forever....geez...
My never fail litmus test is the neighborhood apartment postings. In SF - you know the economy is bad when there is a lot of choice and apartments stay on the market for months. Typically sign goes up for a day and then it rents, if that. Now there are lots of choices all over and postings are lasting for a few months. SF has a few years of eco turbulence ahead I think.
Bukko In Australia: Cheesecake Factory Update: I live 30 min away and was out getting glasses today nearby.First visit there and all I could think was: must report for Bukko! Lunchtime around 130PM: parking tight...no wait but quite busy. A mix of housewives out shopping some with young kids and some elderly couples. Wasn't impressed with my Caesar salad but the Dulce De Leche Cheesecake was delightful!
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