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BusinessWeek -- Several proposals in Barack Obama's mammoth economic recovery plan will result in only modest or even uncertain benefits if they become law.
Says who?
A pair of the president-elect's top economic advisers -- at least that was their view, in previous roles, before they joined his team
....giving more federal aid to states, one of Obama's proposals, falls in the "medium" range of cost-effectiveness and carries much uncertainty about its impact on the economy, Peter R. Orszag told Congress a year ago. He headed the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office then, and now is Obama's pick to direct the Office of Budget and Management.
Other Obama proposals such as giving businesses more leeway to write off losses from 2008 and 2009 "have little effect by themselves," Orszag testified at the time. "The historical record on the effectiveness of efforts to provide discretionary fiscal stimulus is mixed," he concluded.
Christina Romer, who will head Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, held a similar view in 1994, when she co-wrote an essay, "What Ends Recessions?"
"Our estimates suggest that fiscal actions," which are what Obama is proposing, "have contributed only moderately to recoveries," she and her husband, David, wrote. "Economists seem strangely unsure about what to tell policy makers to do to end recessions."
Now, 15 years later, Romer is a principal shaper and defender of Obama's strategy.
Save yourself because the US is f*cked. Your Messiah, the genius, and his pathetic plan (BusinessWeek):
1. Obama wants to give tax credits of $500 a year to individual workers and $1,000 to couples if at least one is employed.
Hoowee, can't you see the economy booming with this "large" amount of $500? It doesn't pay for a month's grocery here at home.
2. Obama wants to spend as much as $200 billion to help states pay for Medicaid and education. Such efforts can have merit, Orszag testified a year ago. But he warned that if federal aid to states "merely provides fiscal relief by paying for spending that would have occurred anyway," it may provide little or no stimulus to the economy.
3. Obama proposes to pour billions of dollars into infrastructure and public works projects, including roads and bridges. He favors those that are ready to break ground right away.
Orszag said a year ago, however, "even those that are 'on the shelf' generally cannot be undertaken quickly enough to provide timely stimulus to the economy."
4. Obama wants the economic package to greatly increase the production of renewable fuels and to make federal buildings more energy efficient. Such efforts would have immediate as well as long-range benefits, Obama says.
Orszag, in early 2008, seemed to think only half of that was true.
Some public works proposals, "such as grant-funded initiatives to develop alternative energy sources are totally impractical for countercyclical policy," he testified, using a term for trying to reverse harmful economic trends promptly.
OMG - i am in atlanta for an expo at the americasmart. 4 huge buildings, all i heard was"nobody is buying". attendance is WAY down. many many cacellations.
these people buy product for their retail stores, they are not buying cause they cant sell anything.
many reps told me their clients have begun closing their stores, many right after the election.
hunker down gang, hope to see you on the other side.
Small businesses -- defined by the government as having 500 or fewer workers -- are a key portion of the country's commerce food chain. They account for more than 99 percent of all employer firms, according to federal statistics, pay nearly 45 percent of the country's private payroll and produce almost a third of the nation's export value.
And what's the priority for the government? BANKERS So you know this system is rigged. Stockpile food and save your money, because Barney Frank Dodd & Co. will destroy this country in no time.
The Growth based economic model needs to die. Stable population and stable output needs to be a worldwide goal. If the western world is to maintain its standard of living, we will move away from the growth model. Of course this nation of Joe 6-Palins is too stupid to figure this out.
And the stock market, rigged, will soar on Monday with these headlines:
* More than 110 people lost their jobs this month when the Heinemann's restaurant chain, a Milwaukee institution for 86 years, shut the three restaurants that remained of what was once a 10-location chain.
* Bonnie Mihalic closed her eponymous costume and bric-a-brac store on New Year's Eve, after sales fell by 50 percent during the all-important Halloween season. When she shut down the Ventura, Calif. shop, she laid off her seven employees and said goodbye to loyal customers she had come to know during 30 years in business.
* The scrimping is spurring Office Depot Inc. -- which gets about 80 percent of its business from corporate customers, most of whom operate small and home-based businesses -- to change some of its merchandise, said Chief Executive and Chairman Steve Odland.
The office supply chain is bumping up the number of sheets in some reams of paper and repackaging items such as pens into smaller -- and cheaper -- packages.
"They say 'I just can't afford to buy a bulk pack of this,'" Odland said.
* It may be the final days of business for the Scandia Bake Shop. After almost 60 years of serving treats like julekake and Oslo rye bread, the Minneapolis store is worried it may have to shut its doors within the week, felled by shrinking sales, rising flour prices and a downright dismal holiday season.
* Ajay Ekesa, 29, worries that his Kahawa Coffee House in Chicago may not last through the spring. He's spreading flyers around the neighborhood, opening his shop's space for community meetings and writing letters to a popular local Web site, asking them to publicize his plight.
* "It's all feeding on itself," said Raymond Keating, chief economist at the Small Business Survival Committee, an advocacy group based in Oakton, Va. "People are scared. They're not quite sure what to do."
Oh my, those $4,000 MacBook Laptops must be flying off the shelves, huh? Keep on buying AAPL stock (with P/E of 20), geniuses. See, code monkeys, there's REAL America and then there's your trendy-fantasy world called, San Francisco. A place with a huge salary bubble that's about to burst and hurt you badly.
Sorry to hijack the thread and I'm not even sure if this will get posted, but I just want to say:
GO CARDINALS!!!!!!!!!!
There were a lot of haters, including a couple on this blog that were trying to tell me they had no shot. My guess is that they never saw the team play in person. The Cardinals can beat anyone anywhere(as long as it's not snowing).
As for Ponzeconomy, I have seen some speculation that creating bubbles is the only way to sustain capitalism. I don't think this is true at all. It's the only way to sustain cronyism, which I hope is coming to a VIOLENT end. I know everyone is afraid of riots and overthrows, but personally, I welcome it. We've come to a tipping point and all this so called NWO, Bilderburg, Skull and Bones garbage is going to end one way or another.
All these elected officials that create ponzeconomies work for US folks. That's you, me, Keefer if he decides to come back, your aunt Sue, Joe the Plumber, Roccman's MRE dealer, Chris Rock, Peter and Irwin Schiff, Andrew Hac, Gregg Swann, Connie Degroot, Alex Jones, etc etc etc etc. It's time to remind them of that. You can't fly to the Hamptons with a pitchfork stuck 18" up your @ss!! I am not advocating violence here. Ahhh screw it. Yes I am.
Pitch forks and torches are on sale and it's time to stock up just in case. Civil unrest is coming to a city near you and it's because we let our leadership get away with creating bubble economies that only benefit the select few. Eventually it has to end and the end is near just like Keith keeps saying.
There have to be some of you HPers/SAers that live in places other than the rich and affluent suburbs that are still in denial for as long as they can be. Tell us how it really is, or ask someone who really knows.
Obama has already pounded the kool aid hard folks. He's telling us that we can spend our way out of this and redirect the TARP, blah blah blah. The man is no different from all the rich old white folks he defeated. He is not change and he is not hope. Hope is Ron Paul, Jesse Ventura, Glen Beck, Peter Schiff, Roccman's MRE dealer, The AZ Cardinals and my generation who is learning to live with less and treat people like people, not "consumers."
Ross - a Cardinals threadjack is OK - they won me a bunch last night (10 points? In a playoff game? Freaking stupid). Plus the distraction gives the depressed people of Phoenix something to be happy about. Since their homes are down 45% and their economy is in the toilet.
Back to the post, I'd suggest no town in America had a bigger Ponzeconomy than Phoenix Arizona
Ponzephoeneconomy
You build your Ponzeconomy on one industry - real estate - and then it blows up in spectacular fashion, and oh, man, watch out below.
Back to the threadjack, Giants over Arizona by 6, Baltimore over Pittsburgh by 3, and Baltimore wins an ugly Superbowl 10 to 6. Ray Lewis pretty much wins it on his own.
I am also a realist and and I agree the Giants will end this season for AZ pretty emphatically in NY. There is just too much going for them. But then again, who wants to bet against Kurt Warner right now?
Conversely, Detroit had to suffer through 0-16 while watching their city go through another UAW caused mess and inevitable blow up.
I don't think I can take another Baltimore Super Bowl. Someone needs to hand Flacco his Delaware Blue Hen rookie @SS. I hope it is Pittsburgh.
Congrats on betting for AZ. If it was straight up, I'd say you were a genius, but those were damn good odds with the points.
What about "you have to prime the pump"? What about "you have to spend money to make money?" I think Obama is right on with his plan. I think it's his best shot. (And I agree with you about Ray Lewis.)
keith you hit a nerve with me by calling the ravens victory over the steelers!! The road to the superbowl goes through pittsburgh! Don't forget that. Pittsburgh vs Giants XLIII
Play of the game!
Troy Palomotu picks Manning and runs for the game winning touchdown!!
Back to the problems!
You are scaring the living shit out of me! I am seeing the decline in this penis shaped state going even further than imagined. The biggest difference is people are starting to talk about thier problems. Before people were fucked in thier own personal mind and knew it. Now everyone is fucked! This ponzieconomy is very relevant here and with no other industry but tourism, healthcare and real estate (banking, construction, etc... ) jobs been gone bye bye! The other major problem is it is so expensive here to the salaries forces people to have to work for themselves here! Well if everyone is trying to do thier own thing and no one can pay for these services anymore then what are people supposed to do?? Please answer me on this! The roads are dead, illegals standing in front of home depot everyday by the hundreds, business laying off people and no end in sight!
I saw a mortgage broker friend on friday night at the club. He and I spoke and I asked him how he is doing? He usually gives me a sales pitch answer like I am so busy BS. Not this night he said he is fucked with 10 properties in foreclosure!!! yes i said 10! Now he is a personal trainer! Keith what is a person like me supposed to do in this enviroment?
Nice post Ross. I saw the Cardinals play (they beat my pathetic Rams twice). Was still surprised they pounded Carolina like they did, but Grocery Boy is a miracle worker.
Back to the threadjack, Giants over Arizona by 6, Baltimore over Pittsburgh by 3, and Baltimore wins an ugly Superbowl 10 to 6. Ray Lewis pretty much wins it on his own
Afraid the Ravens will win it all. Ray Lewis won't win it all by himself though. Water covers 2/3 of the earth, Ed Reed covers the rest. I'll still pull for the Chargers today against the Steelers. Be nice to see a team win one that hasn't yet.
Don't forget about the small and mid size bank the government does not recognize.
http://abfjournal.com /story.asp?id=25314
"We expect government programs such as capital injections and debt guarantees to largely support the banking system as a whole, but they will not serve as a panacea for all U.S. banks, particularly midsize and smaller institutions that the government does not recognize as systemically important," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Barbara Duberstein. "As in other credit cycle downturns, the number of bank failures will likely rise in 2009 from an already high number in 2008, in our view," she added in the report, "U.S. Banking Industry Outlook 2009: A Year Of Falling Credit Quality
Fitch continues to maintain a Negative Outlook on the holding company and its insurance subsidiaries reflecting the current challenging investment environment.
Fitch believes Conseco's statutory capital will be pressured by impairments in the deteriorating market for commercial mortgage backed securities and commercial mortgages.
Fitch also notes Conseco's exposure to a sizable but highly rated Alt-A residential mortgage-backed security portfolio and below-investment-grade fixed maturity corporate securities that are greater than 100% of statutory capital.
The company has a meaningful exposure to GAAP unrealized losses on its investment portfolio that under statutory accounting rules are not reflected in capital.
800 homes in the Midwest for under $3,000, including 22 in Indianapolis, 46 in Cleveland, 18 in Flint, Mich., and 709 in Detroit.
You may be thinking it's too good to be true or what's the catch? Well, there isn't one.
Because of the staggering number of forclosed homes, many times it's cheaper for banks to give them away instead of trying to get market value for them.
That's because the longer the banks have the homes on their books, the more money they have to shell out to maintain them and pay property taxes.
Typically, these homes are small fixer-uppers. They almost always need electrical and plumbing work, new fixtures, new appliances and sometimes new roofs.
Many times the buyers need to bring the homes up to code. And they're often not in the best neighborhoods.
Switzerland's biggest bank is to announce the biggest loss in the country's history, running into billions of dollars, a newspaper reported Sunday.
Since then the bank has been hit by the fraudulent Ponzi scheme of US fraudster Bernard Madoff and the failure of the US subsidiary of the Dutch group LyondellBasell and its share value has lost two thirds over the year.
UBS was heavily exposed to risky US subprime mortgage business and had to write down almost 47 billion dollars in share values. In recent months clients have taken fright and withdrawn a total of 83.6 billion francs.
No conspiracy here. This is what happens when you try to smooth a volatile trend by using seasonal adjustments.
There are some who see a ray of hope in the recent jobless claims reports, which have dropped back to “only” 467,000 in initial unemployment claims, down from 491,000 for the last week, after being over 500,000 for several weeks.
Those numbers are seasonally adjusted. That hope disappears if you look at the actual numbers.
For the current reporting week ending January 3, 2009, the advance number of initial claims came in at 726,420.
Last week’s advance number was 717,000. We have been above 600,000 new initial claims every week since the third week of November. Continuing claims jumped massively, by 744,000 to 5,316,124.
The ridiculous Cardinals! My oh my, I see the professional sports bubble is still fully inflated. What could possibly more important than a bunch of over paid retards jumping into a big pile?
Switzerland's biggest bank is to announce the biggest loss in the country's history, running into billions of dollars, a newspaper reported Sunday.
Ha! And those Swiss snobs still have the balls to say that opening an account requires strong referrals. "They don't pick business from the street". I hope they crash and burn. Switzerland is the new Iceland?
Yes - Peter Shiff again comes through and says the US Bond market is the biggest Ponzi Scheme on the planet - he feels it is about to collapse, as no one is buying anymore except the Fed. . .and they just print money to do it. . .not a pretty picture.
On a related note - the local homeless here in San Diego (many come out for the winter) were complaining because of the cutback in rail freight traffic (hence a loss of their free ride on a boxcar). . .it seems that many came here on empty car carriers (San Diego Port is one of the largest importers of Japanese and Korean Cars). . .now that there are no cars being offloaded here anymore (the docks are full of unsold cars) no trains are running into town - except Amtrak. . .times are tough all over.
I have done my share to support the ponziconomy by purchasing tickets for the NFC Championship game! Still got a deal at $350 a piece in the lower level. Since I am not making mortgage payments, it is the least I can do to help out. Since the Falcons game was such a riot, I expect the same excitement this Sunday. Go Cards!
Obama has to come in behind the Republican "Three Stooges" and clean up their mess.
January 11, 2009 11:54 PM
The three republican stooges?? Reed ,Pelosi, Obammmmy, if those three weren't so god awful scary they would be truely funny. Awww hell I can't think of one politico in the democratic party that have the commen sense god gave a cockroach.
Boooooooosh truely F*cked the republican party and thereby destroyed the American people. Without serous men to hold the dem wingnuts in check they will punish the American people without mercy.
No comments are available under the votes so I'll mention it here:
Absinthe has already been legalized. (As of late 2007, I believe.) I've had some at a restaurant in San Francisco. Ordered from the printed menu. And yes, it's the real thing.
This chart shows commercial real estate delinquencies through Q3 ‘08, and should look familiar because it appears eerily similar to the residential chart circa Q3 ‘07.
In fact, commercial real estate delinquency rates have been increasing by an average of 20% quarter over quarter since Q2 ‘07.
Until recently, this rate of delinquencies has had limited impact on the $800 billion commercial mortgage backed security market (CMBS).
However, two developments could change all that: rising CMBS delinquencies and a record amount of commercial refinancing.
In November 2008, two loans made by JPMorgan (JPM) and repackaged into CMBS, defaulted. This led to an increase in the delinquency rate on CMBS.
Realpoint Research reported that through November the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased by $1.63b to $7.026b.
This represents a 122% increase from January 2008 when delinquent balances were $3.16b.
This matters for two reasons: banks still hold large portfolios of CMBS (in November Citi (C) received TARP funds for its bad CMBS portfolio) and REITS have a record amount of refinancing to complete in 2009.
The sub-prime mess could pale in comparison to the calamity that rising commercial mortgage delinquencies are threatening.
Since the S&L crisis, commercial banks have increased their holdings of commercial mortgages at an accelerating rate.
The Commercial Mortgage Security Association (CMSA) estimates that in 1991 commercial banks held $410 billion in mortgages and by 2006 banks held $1.28 trillion.
According to the FDIC, 18% or $2.1 trillion of the $11.4 trillion residential mortgage loans outstanding are held by commercial banks.
The commercial real estate market is smaller, but the banks hold a larger portion. The CMSA reports that 43% or $1.49 trillion of the $3.4 trillion commercial mortgage market is held by banks.
Given that the current economic environment is much worse than during the S&L crisis, it is not hard to understand why the CMBS market is pricing for a 30% default rate.
Since the banks own a higher percentage of commercial mortgages, the resulting losses could be larger than the so-called “sub-prime” losses.
If real estate has always been about “location, location, location,” 2009 may be the year that commercial real estate becomes about “frustration, frustration, frustration.”
With stories about stalled projects becoming all too familiar, some experts are predicting 2009 will be the worst year for commercial real estate nationally since 1992, when the industry was widely considered to be in a depression.
Ummm..wouldn't they have had to have beaten the Eagles to play Arizona?
WRT Treasuries - looks like the US gov't is going to print money to buy its own Treasuries, so I wouldn't be so keen on TBT, at least not for a while. Looks like gold is a better bet, for now. Expecting more deflation in the short term, inflation in the long term.
PONZICONOMY! OK that is PERFECT. I will be using this word the rest of my life to describe our economy. THANK YOU MAGIC BLOG! (In fact, Keith, you need to change the name of your blog to Ponziconomy immediately. I love you, but the name "Soot and Ashes" is really really lame.
Now he's saying 4 million new jobs and 600,000 new gooberment jobs, I believe the part about gooberment jobs, not to sure about the other.
Oh, great Obama, save us!
I've been a'shopping for a mortgage here in C. Texas and it's really all shutting down, even though I'm a saver and stable in employment and could make a substatial down payment.
So just where is all the bailout money going? Oh, thats right we aren't supposed to ask. Beware of government/private partnerships, it takes away competition, fairness and makes government bloated.
Just when are we all just going to be working for the bloated idiots, one trick poney (spend, spend, spend) government?
Really, free enterprise can and does work, given a chance, excluding the goobers, carreer politicians are a plague on our great nation.
Funny how everyone on this thread picked the Giants to win. Well forgot about D-Mac, Westbrook & the best D in the league in Philly. I'm a Philly die-hard I'll see you in 50% of Glendale this weekend. Next stop is Tampa for the Eagles. The Cards have always sucked and are lucky to be here.
Hey Clueless, Sorry in advance that we're going to ruin your Sunday. If you're going to the game, bring earplugs.
If you're not, prepare to have beer spilled all over your Randall Cunningham Jersey unless you find some Eagles Bar somewhere in Glendale. I suggest Upper Deck in Scottsdale so that you can wipe your tears with some of your ilk.
This is going to be fun. Keith, you should have delayed your Phoenix trip until this weekend. Cards by 7.
PerpWalkWatch - # of Hours New AG Eric Holder Has Let Angelo Mozilo Run Free
Eric Holder and Barack Obama Failure to Arrest Angelo Mozilo 2862 Hours (countdown suspended 6/21/2009)
ERIC HOLDER - YOU ARE A COWARD
DO YOUR JOB
(UPDATE 6.4.09 - SEC CHARGES MOZILO WITH INSIDER TRADING. YET ERIC HOLDER STILL SITS ON HIS ASS AND DOES NOTHING)
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Summer of Rage World Tour™, Presented by Goldman Sachs
"The world is not going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done."
- BulgariaPANIC - Riots but oddly quiet now: 2.0 - LithuaniaPANIC - Riots but oddly quiet now: 2.0 - LatviaPANIC - GOVERNMENT COLLAPSES: 3.0 - EstoniaPANIC - Pressure building: 2.0 - ThailandPANIC - Massive riots, soldiers open up with live fire, government about to collapse - 5.0 - UkrainePANIC - Economy tanking, protests building ahead of vote - 2.0 - IrelandPANIC - 100,000 protest, bank takeover, default possible, no violence: 3.0 -MoldovaPANIC - full scale riots, Parliament torched, government about to collapse: 5.0 - GeorgiaPANIC - full scale riots, government about to be forced out: 5.0 - IcelandPANIC - GOVERNMENT COLLAPSES: 3.0 - RomaniaPANIC - Tension: 2.0 - SpainPANIC - Credit rating cut, unemployment soaring, default rumors: 2.0 - FrancePANIC - Lots of protests, but nothing important, French have better things to do than overthrow their government: 1.0 - GreecePANIC - Scattered riots, chance of showers: 2.0 - HungaryPANIC - GOVERNMENT COLLAPSES: 4.0 - BelarusPANIC - Tension with censorship: 2.0 - UKPANIC: G20 riots quickly replaced by American Idol:1.0 - SouthKoreaPANIC - Violent protests demanding government resign: 3.0 - DubaiPANIC - Unease, soaring unemployment, crashing real estate: 3.0 - MexicoPANIC - Murders, remittances drop first time EVER, jobless illegals coming home to no jobs, troops to the borders: 3.0 - PakistanPANIC - Riots starting: 3.0 - VenezuelaPANIC - Protests: 2.0 - RussiaPANIC - Protests building but will be violently suppressed, another reporter murdered: 1.0 - ChinaPANIC - Protesters will be killed again, government in control of a weak people: 1.0 - IranPANIC - Despotic regime about to fall - Ayatollah disregarded and disrespected, streets aflame - 5.0 - AmericaPANIC - Idol on, McDonalds still open: 0.0 - BahrainPANIC - Riots break out, 10,000 Shiites rage against ruling Sunni elite: 3.0 - MadagascarPANIC - violent protests, GOVERNMENT COLLAPSES- 3.0
48 comments:
Funny how that works:
BusinessWeek -- Several proposals in Barack Obama's mammoth economic recovery plan will result in only modest or even uncertain benefits if they become law.
Says who?
A pair of the president-elect's top economic advisers -- at least that was their view, in previous roles, before they joined his team
....giving more federal aid to states, one of Obama's proposals, falls in the "medium" range of cost-effectiveness and carries much uncertainty about its impact on the economy, Peter R. Orszag told Congress a year ago. He headed the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office then, and now is Obama's pick to direct the Office of Budget and Management.
Other Obama proposals such as giving businesses more leeway to write off losses from 2008 and 2009 "have little effect by themselves," Orszag testified at the time. "The historical record on the effectiveness of efforts to provide discretionary fiscal stimulus is mixed," he concluded.
Christina Romer, who will head Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, held a similar view in 1994, when she co-wrote an essay, "What Ends Recessions?"
"Our estimates suggest that fiscal actions," which are what Obama is proposing, "have contributed only moderately to recoveries," she and her husband, David, wrote. "Economists seem strangely unsure about what to tell policy makers to do to end recessions."
Now, 15 years later, Romer is a principal shaper and defender of Obama's strategy.
Save yourself because the US is f*cked. Your Messiah, the genius, and his pathetic plan (BusinessWeek):
1. Obama wants to give tax credits of $500 a year to individual workers and $1,000 to couples if at least one is employed.
Hoowee, can't you see the economy booming with this "large" amount of $500? It doesn't pay for a month's grocery here at home.
2. Obama wants to spend as much as $200 billion to help states pay for Medicaid and education. Such efforts can have merit, Orszag testified a year ago. But he warned that if federal aid to states "merely provides fiscal relief by paying for spending that would have occurred anyway," it may provide little or no stimulus to the economy.
3. Obama proposes to pour billions of dollars into infrastructure and public works projects, including roads and bridges. He favors those that are ready to break ground right away.
Orszag said a year ago, however, "even those that are 'on the shelf' generally cannot be undertaken quickly enough to provide timely stimulus to the economy."
4. Obama wants the economic package to greatly increase the production of renewable fuels and to make federal buildings more energy efficient. Such efforts would have immediate as well as long-range benefits, Obama says.
Orszag, in early 2008, seemed to think only half of that was true.
Some public works proposals, "such as grant-funded initiatives to develop alternative energy sources are totally impractical for countercyclical policy," he testified, using a term for trying to reverse harmful economic trends promptly.
Ponzonomy, sounds better.
OMG - i am in atlanta for an expo at the americasmart. 4 huge buildings, all i heard was"nobody is buying". attendance is WAY down. many many cacellations.
these people buy product for their retail stores, they are not buying cause they cant sell anything.
many reps told me their clients have begun closing their stores, many right after the election.
hunker down gang, hope to see you on the other side.
Small businesses -- defined by the government as having 500 or fewer workers -- are a key portion of the country's commerce food chain. They account for more than 99 percent of all employer firms, according to federal statistics, pay nearly 45 percent of the country's private payroll and produce almost a third of the nation's export value.
And what's the priority for the government? BANKERS
So you know this system is rigged. Stockpile food and save your money, because Barney Frank Dodd & Co. will destroy this country in no time.
The Growth based economic model needs to die. Stable population and stable output needs to be a worldwide goal.
If the western world is to maintain its standard of living, we will move away from the growth model.
Of course this nation of Joe 6-Palins is too stupid to figure this out.
And the stock market, rigged, will soar on Monday with these headlines:
* More than 110 people lost their jobs this month when the Heinemann's restaurant chain, a Milwaukee institution for 86 years, shut the three restaurants that remained of what was once a 10-location chain.
* Bonnie Mihalic closed her eponymous costume and bric-a-brac store on New Year's Eve, after sales fell by 50 percent during the all-important Halloween season. When she shut down the Ventura, Calif. shop, she laid off her seven employees and said goodbye to loyal customers she had come to know during 30 years in business.
* The scrimping is spurring Office Depot Inc. -- which gets about 80 percent of its business from corporate customers, most of whom operate small and home-based businesses -- to change some of its merchandise, said Chief Executive and Chairman Steve Odland.
The office supply chain is bumping up the number of sheets in some reams of paper and repackaging items such as pens into smaller -- and cheaper -- packages.
"They say 'I just can't afford to buy a bulk pack of this,'" Odland said.
* It may be the final days of business for the Scandia Bake Shop. After almost 60 years of serving treats like julekake and Oslo rye bread, the Minneapolis store is worried it may have to shut its doors within the week, felled by shrinking sales, rising flour prices and a downright dismal holiday season.
* Ajay Ekesa, 29, worries that his Kahawa Coffee House in Chicago may not last through the spring. He's spreading flyers around the neighborhood, opening his shop's space for community meetings and writing letters to a popular local Web site, asking them to publicize his plight.
* "It's all feeding on itself," said Raymond Keating, chief economist at the Small Business Survival Committee, an advocacy group based in Oakton, Va. "People are scared. They're not quite sure what to do."
Oh my, those $4,000 MacBook Laptops must be flying off the shelves, huh? Keep on buying AAPL stock (with P/E of 20), geniuses. See, code monkeys, there's REAL America and then there's your trendy-fantasy world called, San Francisco. A place with a huge salary bubble that's about to burst and hurt you badly.
Sorry to hijack the thread and I'm not even sure if this will get posted, but I just want to say:
GO CARDINALS!!!!!!!!!!
There were a lot of haters, including a couple on this blog that were trying to tell me they had no shot. My guess is that they never saw the team play in person. The Cardinals can beat anyone anywhere(as long as it's not snowing).
As for Ponzeconomy, I have seen some speculation that creating bubbles is the only way to sustain capitalism. I don't think this is true at all. It's the only way to sustain cronyism, which I hope is coming to a VIOLENT end. I know everyone is afraid of riots and overthrows, but personally, I welcome it. We've come to a tipping point and all this so called NWO, Bilderburg, Skull and Bones garbage is going to end one way or another.
All these elected officials that create ponzeconomies work for US folks. That's you, me, Keefer if he decides to come back, your aunt Sue, Joe the Plumber, Roccman's MRE dealer, Chris Rock, Peter and Irwin Schiff, Andrew Hac, Gregg Swann, Connie Degroot, Alex Jones, etc etc etc etc. It's time to remind them of that. You can't fly to the Hamptons with a pitchfork stuck 18" up your @ss!! I am not advocating violence here. Ahhh screw it. Yes I am.
Pitch forks and torches are on sale and it's time to stock up just in case. Civil unrest is coming to a city near you and it's because we let our leadership get away with creating bubble economies that only benefit the select few. Eventually it has to end and the end is near just like Keith keeps saying.
There have to be some of you HPers/SAers that live in places other than the rich and affluent suburbs that are still in denial for as long as they can be. Tell us how it really is, or ask someone who really knows.
Obama has already pounded the kool aid hard folks. He's telling us that we can spend our way out of this and redirect the TARP, blah blah blah. The man is no different from all the rich old white folks he defeated. He is not change and he is not hope. Hope is Ron Paul, Jesse Ventura, Glen Beck, Peter Schiff, Roccman's MRE dealer, The AZ Cardinals and my generation who is learning to live with less and treat people like people, not "consumers."
Ross - a Cardinals threadjack is OK - they won me a bunch last night (10 points? In a playoff game? Freaking stupid). Plus the distraction gives the depressed people of Phoenix something to be happy about. Since their homes are down 45% and their economy is in the toilet.
Back to the post, I'd suggest no town in America had a bigger Ponzeconomy than Phoenix Arizona
Ponzephoeneconomy
You build your Ponzeconomy on one industry - real estate - and then it blows up in spectacular fashion, and oh, man, watch out below.
Back to the threadjack, Giants over Arizona by 6, Baltimore over Pittsburgh by 3, and Baltimore wins an ugly Superbowl 10 to 6. Ray Lewis pretty much wins it on his own.
2009: Part-time traveling internet bloggers cease to be releavant.
They are viewed simply as a nuisance by the lower mental classes who contribute nothing.
Madeoffonomy
The Red Birds do give us hope.
I am also a realist and and I agree the Giants will end this season for AZ pretty emphatically in NY. There is just too much going for them. But then again, who wants to bet against Kurt Warner right now?
Conversely, Detroit had to suffer through 0-16 while watching their city go through another UAW caused mess and inevitable blow up.
I don't think I can take another Baltimore Super Bowl. Someone needs to hand Flacco his Delaware Blue Hen rookie @SS. I hope it is Pittsburgh.
Congrats on betting for AZ. If it was straight up, I'd say you were a genius, but those were damn good odds with the points.
What about "you have to prime the pump"? What about "you have to spend money to make money?" I think Obama is right on with his plan. I think it's his best shot.
(And I agree with you about Ray Lewis.)
"...Economists seem strangely unsure..."
Ah yes; more and more of the "incompetence" canard.
B>U>L>L>S>H>I>T.
They are hamstrung by reprisal like the Madoff whistleblower. You tell the truth, they wreck you; simple as that.
Thank goodness this is all Obama and Frank's fault.
That way we can crank the fraud machine right back up in about 10-20 years.
keith you hit a nerve with me by calling the ravens victory over the steelers!! The road to the superbowl goes through pittsburgh! Don't forget that.
Pittsburgh vs Giants XLIII
Play of the game!
Troy Palomotu picks Manning and runs for the game winning touchdown!!
Back to the problems!
You are scaring the living shit out of me! I am seeing the decline in this penis shaped state going even further than imagined. The biggest difference is people are starting to talk about thier problems. Before people were fucked in thier own personal mind and knew it. Now everyone is fucked! This ponzieconomy is very relevant here and with no other industry but tourism, healthcare and real estate (banking, construction, etc... ) jobs been gone bye bye! The other major problem is it is so expensive here to the salaries forces people to have to work for themselves here! Well if everyone is trying to do thier own thing and no one can pay for these services anymore then what are people supposed to do?? Please answer me on this! The roads are dead, illegals standing in front of home depot everyday by the hundreds, business laying off people and no end in sight!
I saw a mortgage broker friend on friday night at the club. He and I spoke and I asked him how he is doing? He usually gives me a sales pitch answer like I am so busy BS. Not this night he said he is fucked with 10 properties in foreclosure!!! yes i said 10! Now he is a personal trainer!
Keith what is a person like me supposed to do in this enviroment?
Enjoying the weather!
rich in fl
Nice post Ross. I saw the Cardinals play (they beat my pathetic Rams twice). Was still surprised they pounded Carolina like they did, but Grocery Boy is a miracle worker.
Back to the threadjack, Giants over Arizona by 6, Baltimore over Pittsburgh by 3, and Baltimore wins an ugly Superbowl 10 to 6. Ray Lewis pretty much wins it on his own
Afraid the Ravens will win it all. Ray Lewis won't win it all by himself though. Water covers 2/3 of the earth, Ed Reed covers the rest. I'll still pull for the Chargers today against the Steelers. Be nice to see a team win one that hasn't yet.
More like Ponzimerica.
America is more like a game, rather than a country.
Don't forget about the small and mid size bank the government does not recognize.
http://abfjournal.com
/story.asp?id=25314
"We expect government programs such as capital injections and debt guarantees to largely support the banking system as a whole, but they will not serve as a panacea for all U.S. banks, particularly midsize and smaller institutions that the government does not recognize as systemically important," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Barbara Duberstein. "As in other credit cycle downturns, the number of bank failures will likely rise in 2009 from an already high number in 2008, in our view," she added in the report, "U.S. Banking Industry Outlook 2009: A Year Of Falling Credit Quality
Remember those S&L Saving Ponzi scheme back in the 1980, do you think Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities are safe these days.
http://www.pr-inside.com/fitch-
downgrades-conseco-s-ratings-
due-r998333.htm
Fitch continues to maintain a Negative Outlook on the holding company and its insurance subsidiaries reflecting the current challenging investment environment.
Fitch believes Conseco's statutory capital will be pressured by impairments in the deteriorating market for commercial mortgage backed securities and commercial mortgages.
Fitch also notes Conseco's exposure to a sizable but highly rated Alt-A residential mortgage-backed security portfolio and below-investment-grade fixed maturity corporate securities that are greater than 100% of statutory capital.
The company has a meaningful exposure to GAAP unrealized losses on its investment portfolio that under statutory accounting rules are not reflected in capital.
Will 2009 be worst then 2008
http://www.cnbc.com
/id/15840232?video=986642567&play=1
Ivy Zelman said ""Tsunami" of foreclosures still to come"
Are boarded up houses used for crack home in a drug and gangs infested neighborhood a good deal
http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/myfox/page/News/Detail?content
Id=8220487&version=3&locale=EN-
US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.6.1
800 homes in the Midwest for under $3,000, including 22 in Indianapolis, 46 in Cleveland, 18 in Flint, Mich., and 709 in Detroit.
You may be thinking it's too good to be true or what's the catch? Well, there isn't one.
Because of the staggering number of forclosed homes, many times it's cheaper for banks to give them away instead of trying to get market value for them.
That's because the longer the banks have the homes on their books, the more money they have to shell out to maintain them and pay property taxes.
Typically, these homes are small fixer-uppers. They almost always need electrical and plumbing work, new fixtures, new appliances and sometimes new roofs.
Many times the buyers need to bring the homes up to code. And they're often not in the best neighborhoods.
Sounds like one Ponzi scheme after another, and the Alt-A, Option Arm, NINJA loans have not even started to recast yet.
http://business.maktoob.com
/NewsDetails-20070423204523-
Swiss_bank_set_to_announce_
record_loss_report.htm
Switzerland's biggest bank is to announce the biggest loss in the country's history, running into billions of dollars, a newspaper reported Sunday.
Since then the bank has been hit by the fraudulent Ponzi scheme of US fraudster Bernard Madoff and the failure of the US subsidiary of the Dutch group LyondellBasell and its share value has lost two thirds over the year.
UBS was heavily exposed to risky US subprime mortgage business and had to write down almost 47 billion dollars in share values. In recent months clients have taken fright and withdrawn a total of 83.6 billion francs.
Are static another ponzi scheme
http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com
/2009/1/jobs-numbers-much-worse-
than-you-think
Jobs Numbers Much Worse Than You Think
No conspiracy here. This is what happens when you try to smooth a volatile trend by using seasonal adjustments.
There are some who see a ray of hope in the recent jobless claims reports, which have dropped back to “only” 467,000 in initial unemployment claims, down from 491,000 for the last week, after being over 500,000 for several weeks.
Those numbers are seasonally adjusted. That hope disappears if you look at the actual numbers.
For the current reporting week ending January 3, 2009, the advance number of initial claims came in at 726,420.
Last week’s advance number was 717,000. We have been above 600,000 new initial claims every week since the third week of November. Continuing claims jumped massively, by 744,000 to 5,316,124.
"Your Messiah, the genius, and his pathetic plan"
This coming from the idiots who voted twice for:
Bush, The Decider, the corrupt fool, who had no plan.
Obama has to come in behind the Republican "Three Stooges" and clean up their mess.
The ridiculous Cardinals! My oh my, I see the professional sports bubble is still fully inflated. What could possibly more important than a bunch of over paid retards jumping into a big pile?
.
UNITED STATES OF PONZERICA
.
Switzerland's biggest bank is to announce the biggest loss in the country's history, running into billions of dollars, a newspaper reported Sunday.
Ha! And those Swiss snobs still have the balls to say that opening an account requires strong referrals. "They don't pick business from the street". I hope they crash and burn. Switzerland is the new Iceland?
2009: Part-time traveling internet bloggers cease to be releavant.
They are viewed simply as a nuisance by the lower mental classes who contribute nothing.
-----------------------
in the year 2000..... in the year 2000.......
not a huge conan fan but his "in the year 2000" bit is often pretty funny.
Yes - Peter Shiff again comes through and says the US Bond market is the biggest Ponzi Scheme on the planet - he feels it is about to collapse, as no one is buying anymore except the Fed. . .and they just print money to do it. . .not a pretty picture.
On a related note - the local homeless here in San Diego (many come out for the winter) were complaining because of the cutback in rail freight traffic (hence a loss of their free ride on a boxcar). . .it seems that many came here on empty car carriers (San Diego Port is one of the largest importers of Japanese and Korean Cars). . .now that there are no cars being offloaded here anymore (the docks are full of unsold cars) no trains are running into town - except Amtrak. . .times are tough all over.
I have done my share to support the ponziconomy by purchasing tickets for the NFC Championship game! Still got a deal at $350 a piece in the lower level. Since I am not making mortgage payments, it is the least I can do to help out. Since the Falcons game was such a riot, I expect the same excitement this Sunday.
Go Cards!
if you guys wanna check out a real modern day ponzi scheme the company I'd called the producers alliance theproducersalliance.net
Glazed donut said:
"The Growth based economic model needs to die."
This can only happen when interest is no longer charged on a currency in circulation.
Obama has to come in behind the Republican "Three Stooges" and clean up their mess.
January 11, 2009 11:54 PM
The three republican stooges?? Reed ,Pelosi, Obammmmy, if those three weren't so god awful scary they would be truely funny. Awww hell I can't think of one politico in the democratic party that have the commen sense god gave a cockroach.
Boooooooosh truely F*cked the republican party and thereby destroyed the American people. Without serous men to hold the dem wingnuts in check they will punish the American people without mercy.
.
Ponzectomy......a surgical procedure removing your head from your ASS!
.
No comments are available under the votes so I'll mention it here:
Absinthe has already been legalized. (As of late 2007, I believe.) I've had some at a restaurant in San Francisco. Ordered from the printed menu. And yes, it's the real thing.
Will Commercial Mortgage Backed Security be the next Ponzieconomy.
http://static.seekingalpha.com
/uploads/2009/1
/9/saupload_commericial_
delinqueciies.png
This chart shows commercial real estate delinquencies through Q3 ‘08, and should look familiar because it appears eerily similar to the residential chart circa Q3 ‘07.
In fact, commercial real estate delinquency rates have been increasing by an average of 20% quarter over quarter since Q2 ‘07.
Until recently, this rate of delinquencies has had limited impact on the $800 billion commercial mortgage backed security market (CMBS).
However, two developments could change all that: rising CMBS delinquencies and a record amount of commercial refinancing.
In November 2008, two loans made by JPMorgan (JPM) and repackaged into CMBS, defaulted. This led to an increase in the delinquency rate on CMBS.
Realpoint Research reported that through November the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased by $1.63b to $7.026b.
This represents a 122% increase from January 2008 when delinquent balances were $3.16b.
This matters for two reasons: banks still hold large portfolios of CMBS (in November Citi (C) received TARP funds for its bad CMBS portfolio) and REITS have a record amount of refinancing to complete in 2009.
Why have there been so many ponzi scheme in the past 10 years - starting with the dot-com bubble.
http://seekingalpha.com/article
/114209-commercial-mortgages-
the-400-billion-ticking-time-bomb
The sub-prime mess could pale in comparison to the calamity that rising commercial mortgage delinquencies are threatening.
Since the S&L crisis, commercial banks have increased their holdings of commercial mortgages at an accelerating rate.
The Commercial Mortgage Security Association (CMSA) estimates that in 1991 commercial banks held $410 billion in mortgages and by 2006 banks held $1.28 trillion.
According to the FDIC, 18% or $2.1 trillion of the $11.4 trillion residential mortgage loans outstanding are held by commercial banks.
The commercial real estate market is smaller, but the banks hold a larger portion. The CMSA reports that 43% or $1.49 trillion of the $3.4 trillion commercial mortgage market is held by banks.
Given that the current economic environment is much worse than during the S&L crisis, it is not hard to understand why the CMBS market is pricing for a 30% default rate.
Since the banks own a higher percentage of commercial mortgages, the resulting losses could be larger than the so-called “sub-prime” losses.
I pledge allegiance to the bubbles, of the United Ponzischemes of America,
And to the bailouts for when they pop,
One screwed nation, under water, totally divisible with bankruptcy and eviction for all.
With the subprime market drying what did these subprime mortgage brokers do to survive.
http://washington.bizjournals.com
/washington/stories/2009/01
/12/story11.html?b=
1231736400^1758423
If real estate has always been about “location, location, location,” 2009 may be the year that commercial real estate becomes about “frustration, frustration, frustration.”
With stories about stalled projects becoming all too familiar, some experts are predicting 2009 will be the worst year for commercial real estate nationally since 1992, when the industry was widely considered to be in a depression.
Keith - "Giants over Arizona by 6"
Ummm..wouldn't they have had to have beaten the Eagles to play Arizona?
WRT Treasuries - looks like the US gov't is going to print money to buy its own Treasuries, so I wouldn't be so keen on TBT, at least not for a while. Looks like gold is a better bet, for now. Expecting more deflation in the short term, inflation in the long term.
Absinthe is now legal in the United States FYI...
Just found something else that is hysterical:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123152099299568447.html
keith,
great new word! love it!
PONZINOMICS
PONZICONOMY! OK that is PERFECT. I will be using this word the rest of my life to describe our economy. THANK YOU MAGIC BLOG! (In fact, Keith, you need to change the name of your blog to Ponziconomy immediately. I love you, but the name "Soot and Ashes" is really really lame.
USSP - United Socialist States of Ponzi.......
Now he's saying 4 million new jobs and 600,000 new gooberment jobs, I believe the part about gooberment jobs, not to sure about the other.
Oh, great Obama, save us!
I've been a'shopping for a mortgage here in C. Texas and it's really all shutting down, even though I'm a saver and stable in employment and could make a substatial down payment.
So just where is all the bailout money going? Oh, thats right we aren't supposed to ask. Beware of government/private partnerships, it takes away competition, fairness and makes government bloated.
Just when are we all just going to be working for the bloated idiots, one trick poney (spend, spend, spend) government?
Really, free enterprise can and does work, given a chance, excluding the goobers, carreer politicians are a plague on our great nation.
Funny how everyone on this thread picked the Giants to win. Well forgot about D-Mac, Westbrook & the best D in the league in Philly. I'm a Philly die-hard I'll see you in 50% of Glendale this weekend. Next stop is Tampa for the Eagles. The Cards have always sucked and are lucky to be here.
What's on Idol?
Hey Clueless,
Sorry in advance that we're going to ruin your Sunday. If you're going to the game, bring earplugs.
If you're not, prepare to have beer spilled all over your Randall Cunningham Jersey unless you find some Eagles Bar somewhere in Glendale. I suggest Upper Deck in Scottsdale so that you can wipe your tears with some of your ilk.
This is going to be fun. Keith, you should have delayed your Phoenix trip until this weekend. Cards by 7.
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