Why not?
What's to stop all stocks from falling to zero?
Maybe the whole thing was one big mirage? And the biggest Ponzi Scheme in the history of man?
Serious question.
Stocks fell and the S&P 500 closed at a 12-year low on Friday, after the government said it will take a large stake in Citigroup's common shares, fanning fears it will increase its role in other major banks.
We're headed to 4000. Watch.
ReplyDeleteStocks crash to zero? Let's hope not.
ReplyDeleteIf they do that means civilization has also collapsed.
"Maybe the whole thing was one big mirage?"
ReplyDeleteOr one big magic act.
Paper Profits: Now you see 'em - Now you don't.
http://www.mint.com/blog/finance-core/golden-parachutes-how-the-bankers-went-down/
ReplyDeleteyour boy mozilo has a big parachute there...
the casino known as wall street is done. i'm sure they'll turn the trading floor into condos in the next bubble.
Things are so bad even the rich are bitching!
ReplyDeleteI do wish the MSM would report what the real year comparison is, when adjusted for inflation.
ReplyDelete$1 in 1997 ain't anywhere close to $1 in 2009
Any math majors out there? What year are we really back to now?
Shits over. I never seen anything like this. I am scared!
ReplyDeleteWe probably are heading for 3000 or 4000 on the DOW. This would be a good indication that Capitalism is dead! At least for the next decade.
ReplyDeleteThat would mean that in one year the DOW would had lost 10000 points! UNTHINKABLE! I can't even begin to imagine the trillions upon trillions that a 10000 point drop signifies!
Can anyone?
BUY & HOLD$$$
ReplyDeleteCOST AVERAGE DOWN$$$
DIVERSIFY$$$
AND DON"T FORGET MY 4%$$$
DOPES$$$
Wake me up when we are at 5200.
I can't even think about how many millions of people have have their hopes and dreams shattered because of this. Their comfortable retirements lost. Their standards of living destroyed. Especially the baby boomers - the innocents and the non-so-innocents.
ReplyDeleteThis is the most devastating stock collapse since the great depression, and when it's all said and done, it might be even worse, since such a significantly higher percentage of people are involved with stocks than they were in '29 and '30.
I do wonder what the kids will learn from this, and also the collapse of just a few years ago.
Two epic collapses, back to back.
Trust may be gone for anyone alive today.
"I can't even begin to imagine the trillions upon trillions that a 10000 point drop signifies!
ReplyDeleteCan anyone?"
15 trillion??
I wonder how much the net worth of the world's appraisable assets was at the artificial peak (all stocks, bonds, land, plants, metals, etc), and what it is today
ReplyDeleteAnyone?
I've read that the world has lost $40 trillion in wealth so far.
OK
Then how much is left to go?
Math was my second major - we've discussed how the CPI is unreliable so I'm not sure which data set to use to adjust for inflation. House-buying power? Ha! Computer-buying power? [keanu]Whoa...[\keanu] Value re: the Mark(euro) or the Pound? Or that yellow shiny metal y'all keep talking about?
ReplyDelete( I know Dow vs. Gold is out there in chart form, we may even be able to dig it up)
And oh, when you think the US has it bad, think of the Russians
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RSX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=dia
Had nothing. Got tons of wealth. Lost it all.
That, folks, is the grounds for serious social unrest. It's better to have never had it at all than to get it and then lose it.
Don't cha think?
Keith,
ReplyDeleteStart a count down to a 10000 point lost by DOW! Counting days. I think its coming!
Blogger keith said...
ReplyDeleteI wonder how much the net worth of the world's appraisable assets was at the artificial peak (all stocks, bonds, land, plants, metals, etc), and what it is today
Anyone?
I've read that the world has lost $40 trillion in wealth so far.
OK
Then how much is left to go?
------------
Maybe the wealth never existed Keith! It was an illusion!
But we do have a LOT of sh*t, don't we? By the time my wife wears out all her shoes the market should go back up again.
ReplyDeleteOh well, money comes and money goes. It heartens me to see that everyone expects it to go to zero. 'Maybe this time is different' works on the way up and the way down.
ReplyDelete"It's better to have never had it at all than to get it and then lose it."
ReplyDeleteDarien Taylor: When you've had money and lost it, it can be much worse than never having had it at all!
-from the movie Wall Street
It's ALL RIGGED.
ReplyDeleteWall Street Pump & Dump.
They exist only to Fuck You Over and steal your money.
Mission Accomplished.
Sheeple Broke, Destitute and sick and hungry.
Once they get your guns (coming next), then they will simply Kill You All.
Enjoy the DIE OFF Shitheads.
Gordon Gekko: "It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another."
ReplyDeleteObama and his posse are pushin' a little too hard. They are going to find out what happens when some folks decide to push back...
ReplyDeleteThe last ditch effort will be when we get low enough that the government starts buying stocks out in the open. The Japanese have already said they will do it. The question is how low do they let things get before trying?
ReplyDeleteThat, folks, is the grounds for serious social unrest. It's better to have never had it at all than to get it and then lose it.
ReplyDeleteDon't cha think?
That's the funny thing about humans. We rarely think more than 3 steps down the line.
Yes, serious social unrest in states like China, Russia, India, and many many others is a very dangerous and now likely thing.
Well...Citi wasn't the only culprit. Healthcare sector also sold off today due to BO policies announced on the budget. BO & Co. are destroying every single sector, especially with his new tax hikes to punish "the $250k/year gross eBay trinkets seller rich" during a depression.
ReplyDeleteSurprise surprise, as per BO Raytheon lobbyist appointment to run the Pentagon, the budget for the military increased by 14% on top of what GWB had increased last time. Hey, but the Hollywood celebs won't say a thing about it; like it doesn't exist.
Hilarious was the headlines today announcing in big letters "BO ANNOUNCES WITHDRAW OF TROOPS FROM IRAQ"; however, in very tiny fonts, it said that BO will keep 50,000 troops there indefinitely. Folks, if you keep 50,000 troops in ANY country, that isn't a withdraw, no matter how you spin it. Once again, not a word about that from cultists, biased bloggers, and Hollywood celebs. Funny how that works.
nothing to do with obama no of course not why would any rational thinking person believe that and when it goes to zero there will be those yes you who believe that an ex president is responsible but there is a wind blowing across this nation and it will be violent at its strongest and we are seeing signs that what some voted for is not looking pretty but the election is over and 2010 is just around the bend and the long awaited troop withdrawal date of 08/31/2010 has been announced and mccain is for it so the carnival is rigged either way
ReplyDelete$1 in 1997 ain't anywhere close to $1 in 2009
ReplyDeleteAny math majors out there? What year are we really back to now?
Simple Time Value of Money (TMV) calculation. You can use average CPI + 10-year Note for discount rate.
I'm lazy right now to pull my HP-10BII or TI. Anyone else getting hammered with wine as we speak?
.
ReplyDeleteCAN WE ALL AGREE THAT BALANCE SHEETS ARE AS RELIABLE AS LIAR'S LOANS? IT'S ALL RIGGED!
.
How about this headline:
ReplyDeleteDOW JAN DROP WORST SINCE 1933.
(11.7% vs. 15.6%)
That's percentage terms so it's the real deal. You can take inflation out of the equation.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123573389322793621.html
Bend over and thank osama bin laden and the bush family.Would you like lube with that?
ReplyDeleteDow Gold is now at 7.5 ratio and will continue falling to 5 in the near term then rise to around 12 midterm.
ReplyDeleteBy 3rd quarter most workers both private and government sectors who remain employed will have a higher sense of job security. Demand will increase rapidly as supply of subprime foreclosures dwindles and these people pull the trigger on car and house purchases with deep discounts and tax credits. This will fuel a bounce back to Dow Gold ratio of around 12, perhaps near Dow 10,000.
As the supply of knife catchers is depleted and the supply of Alt A and Option Arm foreclosures increases and we approach 2011 the economy will slip back into recession. The depth of this subsequent downturn will be compounded by higher interest rates and higher taxes.
Fundamental changes in the economy will need to be made for long term stability. House prices will likely reach levels of the 1950s when the median house price was around 10,000 times the minimum wage. That would equate to a national median house price per square foot of around $50. At this point Dow Gold ration will have fallen below 5 and Dow will find a floor near 3000 where it will remain for a long time.
Dow Gold
By the time my wife wears out all her shoes the market should go back up again.
ReplyDeleteDepends how fat your wife is and how fast she wears out shoes. The fat ones usually have the most shoes.
Otomo No Yakamochi
ReplyDeleteBetter never to have met you in my dream than to wake and reach for hands that are not there.
When you see the stock market tanking, trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, and endless bailouts for bad banks and housing speculators, don't forget:
ReplyDeleteWe won.
Heard from a friend, her daughter wants to cash out of the market before she looses any more.
ReplyDeleteAlot of people that havent already are thinking the same thing and will run for the exits at the same time.
I could see the DOW going to 4000 because there is no trusting it.
Cash is king.
ReplyDeletePreserving capital is what's important.
.
ReplyDeleteWE'VE HIT A BOTTOM ANNOUNCEMENT #475
.
I have no sympathy for anyone, there's no guarantees in the stock market. It's nice to see the entitled burned.
ReplyDeleteI hope Citigroup continues imploding upon itself and the shareholders are left with nothing. It's been bailed out one too many times.
ReplyDelete"Banking is not the creator of our prosperity, but is the creation of it. It is not the cause of our wealth, but it is the consequence of our wealth." - from some British guy in 1904
We keep bailing them out and the banks continue their theft and corruption. It's time for the banks to be put back in their place. The banks serve the citizens, not the other way around.
Ha! Obamy, the boy genius, is hitting lawyers, doctors, or anyone earning $200k, with huge tax hikes right before their Alt-A loans are about to reset during a depression. Genius!
ReplyDeleteMust be that liberal arts degree in Asian Studies coming handy. bwahahaha
consultant said...
ReplyDeleteWe're headed to 4000. Watch.
February 27, 2009 9:39 PM
S&P 500
or
DOW 30
?
?
?
I bet George Soros is juuuuust fine.
ReplyDeleteObama got $750,000,000 in camp donations. That is his war chest. When he is done he goes home with that!
Wouldn't you like to know where he is investing??????
Keith said:
ReplyDeleteI do wish the MSM would report what the real year comparison is, when adjusted for inflation.
$1 in 1997 ain't anywhere close to $1 in 2009
Any math majors out there? What year are we really back to now?
---------
Minneapolis Fed Inflation Calculator:
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/index.cfm
Says that we're at aprox 5190 in 1997 dollars. So pushing it back - we're at about Jan 1996.
Two more banks made it on the FDIC failed bank list this week.
ReplyDeleteThat is a total of 16 banks so far this year.
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/
individual/failed/banklist.html
Security Savings Bank
Heritage Community Bank
Are you sure the bail out plan will work.
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2009/02
/27/news/economy
/tully_banks.fortune
/index.htm?postversion=2009022707
How can it be that the banks are tottering after the government fortified them with hundreds of billions in bailout cash and guarantees on their troubled assets?
For the past 18 months, the banks' problems with toxic securities, especially collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other exotic products that packaged subprime mortgages, attracted most of the attention - and alarm.
Now the storm is entering an entirely new phase that's potentially even more dangerous: a historic meltdown in the bread-and-butter businesses of credit card, home-equity, and mortgage lending.
The scale of potential losses in consumer and business loans swamps what's left from the securities debacle by a factor of three or four to one.
And the next wave, the looming defaults on commercial real estate loans financing the likes of half-leased retail malls, will soon cause a fresh round of pain. "We've now moved from the securities phase to the lending phase of the banking crisis," says Tanya Azarchs, a managing director in S&P's financial services ratings group.
"For 2009 we expect that loan losses will be much worse than for 2008 and that securities write-downs will be much less."
Ha! Obamy, the boy genius, is hitting lawyers, doctors, or anyone earning $200k, with huge tax hikes right before their Alt-A loans are about to reset during a depression. Genius!
ReplyDelete-----------------------------------
Good. Every cloud has a silver lining. And this one will be: More affordable food, housing, and basics for everyone else. I say, let them pay more. And if they don't like it, there are billions of folks from India and China who would beg for a job in a nursing home here in the "Land Of Opportunity". In exchange for food, a place to live, and a car that runs. Bring it on.
"...serious social unrest in states like China, Russia, India, and many many others is a very dangerous and now likely thing..."
ReplyDeleteI don't know. Think of how much good would be done for our country, nay, the world by just two well-placed(NY/DC) items from Pakistan's arsenal.
"...WE'VE HIT A BOTTOM ANNOUNCEMENT #475..."
Heh; thanks for that.
"...How can it be that the banks are tottering after the government fortified them with hundreds of billions..."
A more cynical person might think it went to compensate their stockholders for their (entirely foreseeable/planned)losses.
When the Dow gets to 750 I will think about buying again.
ReplyDeleteA lot of people thought the safe and prudent thing to do was to invest in a SP500 index fund. Bummer for them.
ReplyDeleteAnon ~~ The military budget went up, because Obama won't put the war budget off the books like Bush did, so it is only an apparant increase. The 50,000 troops in Iraq would remain until 2011, not indefinitely.
ReplyDeleteThat guy who said "short everything" - he was so right.
ReplyDeleteI see prices on all goods coming down, wages coming way down and and staying down for years, earnings coming down, even energy costs coming down as people move in together, businesses close, more houses sit empty and people travel less and buy less of everything. I guess this is the feared deflation. Not sure where that leaves gold.
Doubt that the economy will be 70% fueled by consumerism again any time soon. Wonder when that really got going and what fueled it before?
I think there is nothing Obama or anyone can do about most of this - it's gotten too much momentum. Donald Trump said the other day that the only thing that has kept this from being a full-fledged depression is that the banks are propped up. So far, no run on the banks.
Obama strikes me as a 60s relic - reminds me of the days of the "great society" and the fight for civil rights and the Viet Nam war protests. His closeness to his anti US preacher and affliliation with his radical buddy make a lot more sense to me now. I think he's in that same camp but sadly, taking his cues from the corrupt Chicago machine.
He seems out of touch. And naiive, as many of us were in the 60's. And unfortunately, sincere. It's like he doesn't know any better.
That's scary.
I don't think it will go below 3000 because I personally will be out there buying selected stock if it gets to 3000, and I imagine a lot of other people, including foreign countries cherrypicking our industries (possibly to kill off competitors) will do so also. But after it hits a low it will stay low for quite awhile, so there is really no hurry to get back into the stock market.
ReplyDeleteDow well into the 6,000's next week after the next AIG shoe drops...unless AIG has become totally irrelevant. BTW California just hit 10%+ unemployment, and as they say, as California goes, so goes America....unless Cali has become irrelevant too. Tea parties are starting here in SoCal, I say L.A. becomes flashpoint for the coming wave of social unrest. The average wait at gun shops is over an hour, and gun training classes are overflowing.
ReplyDelete10% unemployment but I bet that damn freeway is still packed!
ReplyDeleteeasy - everything is going back to 1995 prices. houses and the stock market. several fundamental reasons - including the rapid run up in the 90s.
ReplyDeleteonce it hits 1995 prices they wont stay there for long. should bound up sharply as everyone realizes things are at bargain basement prices.
check out DShort.com for excellent analysis.
by the way, ive been a long time reader - and you saved my ass giving the heads up on real estate - well ahead of MSM.