Readers know I've been surprised by how fast and how far things have collapsed thus far. I didn't think our government could be quite THIS incompetent and corrupt, but it is what it is.
That said, I could still come up with a best case scenario, where we quickly rebound out of this disaster. See my 10 Point Plan for a hint on how that could be done. In this scenario, home prices stabilize. Stocks rebound. Job losses slow down. Confidence comes back and comes back quick.
But I also could easily come up with a worst case scenario, where we continue down this destructive path, thanks to the monkeys in charge. In that scenario, you have serious social unrest around the world. Riots. Assassinations. All the wealth of the world wiped away. Hunger. Homelessness. Hundreds of millions unemployed. Wars.
So the world now hangs in the balance. We are indeed at a tipping point. Which way will it go? And what does the world look like, either way?
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103 comments:
Give it up Keith, the collapse hasn't even begun yet.
Best - Total financial meltdown
Worst - Oprah on TV 24-7.
The god king Obamma wants collaspe, he wants absolute power. I can't believe you could not see him for what he is and always WAS. "Never waste a good crisis." Baby they are buiding the mother of all crisis!!!!!
Best-case cenario? What?!!!
Your 10 point plan is a joke. It's nothing more than hide the pickle and pray.
Best = lost decade
Worst = famine, disease, nukes going off in major cities, and mass death.
If you have been amazed watching Citi's and GM's stock head to zero you are go to be really amazed watching the entire market do this.
Prepare for reboot.
Worst case sceneario: the US government and the rule of law go zero with the market.
Best case scenario: the US government let's this BS fail and we build a better world the next three years. It really could only take three years if we take our head out of our ass.
DP
DP
Things should get interesting soon with the Madoff plea deal. Think he'll give some names?
"...home prices stabilize..."
You cannot be serious.
Here in San Diego, that would mean a median income of around $150k to buy the average home. It is less than a third of that.
Keith,
Obama just said he doesn't trust financial blogs. Your 10 point plan, no matter how effective, won't be even considered. See his quote below and what he thinks of financial bloggers like CR, Mish, Roubini, Karl et al.
Mr. Obama rode to the White House partly on his savvy use of new technology, and he has a staff-written blog on his presidential Web site. Even so, he said he did not find blogs to be reliable, citing the economy as one example.
“Part of the reason we don’t spend a lot of time looking at blogs,” he said, “is because if you haven’t looked at it very carefully, then you may be under the impression that somehow there’s a clean answer one way or another — well, you just nationalize all the banks, or you just leave them alone and they’ll be fine.”
Last two paragraphs of the NYT article.
http://tinyurl.com/d2yl7m
Banks in Europe leveraged up to 90 times. I've heard ours leveraged 35-ish, but I'll bet it's worse than that. Same for other countries.
It isn't a wonder why it's slipped so fast, it's a wonder why it isn't all in a heap as we speak. Maybe it more or less is, and they haven't figured, not a way to save it, but a way to tell us. Every article and fact I come across, says, it's all broken and they are buying time to figure out how to glue it (the financial structure of the world) together enough, that something recognizeable remains. Think movie: Death Becomes Her. Last scene.
Grandma PKK
Anonymous: re God King Obama cut:
I recommend you read:
When Corporations Rule the World by
David Korten pub 1994 as a starting point, to see who might really be ruling the world. The wealth of corporations collectively is literally unfathomable; they have called the shots for years in every area of life, globally.
No wonder there is a lot of griping re Obama administration.
It's clear he's likeable enough, bright enough, thoughtful enough to actually accomplish something that might be more balanced for the world.
The market has been crumbling for over a year to the halfway point, and now a little lower. George Bush signed approx 150 executive orders his last few weeks. He was such a sneaky weasle. I think all together his executive (think imperial decree) orders were near or greater than a thousand. The difference is, it was done very, very quietly. So no one noticed.
It's hard to deal with conscious
reality. But it's been there all along.
Grandma PKK
Oooobaaamy!
Gimme Cheese.
sorry, Keith.
Americans just don't have the skills required for a recovery. the welfare days are come & gone. now it's die-off.
The best case scenario would be the complete collapse of our current form of crony capitalism - with all the fraudsters exposed and punished - and the rebirth of a true fair-trade/free-trade type economic system with equal opportunity for all.
Worst case scenario would be a continuation of this greed-fueled, criminals-in-charge, kleptocratic clusterf*ck.
Grandma PKK said...
"Every article and fact I come across, says, it's all broken and they are buying time to figure out how to glue it (the financial structure of the world) together enough, that something recognizeable remains."
-----------------
I love your practical and down-to-earth posts!
-----------------
The big wrinkle, though, is that - just like Humpty Dumpty - there is no way to glue it all back together.
They already know this fact, and are just buying time with the hope that, when the masses finally realizes it, that they will have been able to make an exit with their own stack of chips still intact.
Like somebody mentioned recently on S & A, it is not a matter of debt; it is a matter of solvency!
-Mammoth
> Worst = famine, disease, nukes going off in major cities, and mass death.
Is mass-death green. Somehow I think the answer is yes. Hurray!
I'm shocked that Obama and Democrats are intentionally pushing the whole system to collapse.
Federal Reserve likely to be nationalized this year.
Next year comes Zimbabwe inflation followed by the fall of the empire.
Nationalized Federal Reserve
>Americans just don't have the skills required for a recovery.
Is dialing 911 because your hamburger isn't cooked right a recovery skill?
In order for us to have a long and sustainable recovery, all of this excess we have in our country needs to be washed away. Right now, that is happening, but the government is trying to stop it by "helping homeowners stay in their home", bailing out GM, Chrysler, Ford, big banks, etc... So, the longer they play this game of "helping and stimulating the economy" the longer the pain will persist.
I also think people in America will be even more shocked to see the so called social safety nets (unemployment insurance, social security, etc...) go poof if the economy takes a real dive (like 10% to 20% in negative GDP, 15% to 25% unemployment, etc...) because back in the 1930's, American could afford all of those plans because we were a net saver nation despite the go-go 1920's. Today, we are a net debtor nation and all of this "economic stimulation" is backed by borrowed money.
Thus if the economy really takes a dive, who in their right mind will throw good money after bad again and again?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg
The 90:1 leveraging throughout so much of the financial world over the last couple of dozen years is now unwinding with no mercy.
That only allows one real outcome:
Asset and commodity classes will seek a natural leveling to it's sustainable productive value. I believe this amount to no more than:
less than 15% of former peak values
- 500K home will be a < 75K home
- $3 gallon of gasoline = < .45 cents
- $2 loaf of break = < .30 cents
- $10.00 p/h wage = < $1.50 p/h
And on it will go
If you're not in cash by this point and in debt at current fantastical-illusionary cost of equity, you will be truly f*cked for life.
Best-case scenario? People grow the fuck up, start living responsibly (including responsibly when it concerns how they treat the planet.) They work hard, work smart, live within their means. They follow science -- HELLO! global warming head-up-your-assers! Go stand in that corner with the plate tectonics deniers, the Flat Earthers and the "sun revolves around the Earth because it says so in the Bible" folks. They stop being blind followers of stupid shit like religion and racism that says "You must kill everyone who's different to you." They stop breeding like malignant cancer cells.
Likely to happen? Nah. I encounter lots of people. I see them under stress, when the core personality comes out. I reckon you're saying it half as a joke, Keith, but we ARE a lot closer to monkeys in our reactive brains than we'd like to admit.
Which leads to worst-case scenario -- the Big Die-Off. I'd put money on 2:1 odd for that, occurring over the next two generations. World population to 4 billion, coming down the hard way. And that's WITHOUT nukes. Add radiation, WorldPop = 1 billion.
1929 all over again:
Get the hell out of Europe while you still can!
-->http://tinyurl.com/b9r8wb
Review your entire portfolio, immediately remove any investments even remotely related to a European company.
While you still can!
US to become Brazil. Rich whites in gated communities with privately funded municipal services. Chauffeured bulletproof limousines to executive suites in city centers or suburban office parks.
The rest of Amerikwa irreversibly slides into 2nd/3rd world living conditions. Everything is more expensive, anything that isn't nailed down is stolen within 5 minutes.
Car-jackings, rapes, home invasions, just an overall coarsening of life, which with enough Idol and NFL we will be numb to. More of the "cocooning" syndrome seen after 9/11.
Periodic zombie horde outbreaks, perhaps dealt with via REX-84. Internet monitored, censorship a-la 1917 under Wilson restored, lengthy jail times for sedition.
Those who can adapt will endure and perhaps thrive, the rest of you DIE U PIGS
.
Could the cops and other security related workers who hang around here keep us posted about training, rumors, etc? We want to hear from you. What's the word out there?
.
Rebound to what? To the same way we did spend before this debacle? No money honey first we need to EARN lots of dough. Exuberant spending is out of fashion for a while. Hey Big Mac's do taste great and one needs only one a day to stay slim.
Our nation needs another temporary national anthem which starts like this,
I owe,I owe, I owe and off to work I go,
Best case scenario: Your grandmother is on the roof.
What tipping point?
This baby's rollin!
F*ck it. If I were the POTUS, I would merge NASA with the Big 3 and go insane on new car designs and technology.
Keith,
What is wrong with you? Considering you saw the housing collapse comnig before 99.9% of the sheeple had a clue why can't you figure out where we are? You had a glimpse of insight on Friday discussing the OTC notional value amoount. This is not a recession or a depression that just goes away. You have 20 trillion worth of valueless paper. That equals Hyerinflation or a world war. This is not fear mongering, rather it is mathematics that don't lie. The real panic will be some time in 2010-2011 and we will not come out of the depression unless we have world changing event.
.
WE NEED COLLAPSE TO PASS NWO AGENDA. SO YES, THE KING-AFRICANO-MOMBASA-OBAMY-THE MAGNANIMOUS IS GOING TO SEND US OVER THE CLIFF, PURPOSELY.
.
It's pretty obvious what's coming. The government will keep paying the debts of the finance sector until the government is bankrupt and the dollar is worthless. Then we have Great Depression II + currency collapse. Americans will be eating bugs and worms.
The best case scenario is that Obama fires Geithner and Summers, puts the banksters in prison, and lets the banks collapse. What are the chances of that?
Get a book on edible bugs and worms while you still can.
break up the big banks - 60% of the country's deposits are with 5 banks. Cite Antitrust rules and break-em up - plenty of strong regional and local banks to take up the slack.
Break em up because as long as there is the threat of nationalization noone is going to invest in the big banks for fear of extreme dilution. noone is going to invest in small banks because of the backing of the big banks.
Even the playing field and watch investment come back to the financial sector!
Man, the posts have brought out the raving paranoid-delusionals on this board.
Yeah, things are shitty now. But the rise in the yammering from the "Milleniallist" cultists is really starting to get annoying. If you really believe that all is doom & ashes, well dudes, go take a shovel, dig a hole and lay down.
The rest of us have work to do.
BTW - anyone else remember the big Y2K supposed meltdown? Where the streets were supposed to be filled with rampaging hordes, and the so-called "Smart People" were digging bunkers in the mountains? Last I checked, those folks were looking pretty sheepish...
Isn't that great that the American worker has to pay billions to European bankers who were gambling with real estate? Now the US has to be supporting the socialist Europe. Hey you European f*cks, since you love your socialism crap, why we Americans have to be bailing your economy out? And you still have the nerve to hate us, you bunch of French bastards? Here's the partial list that Bernanke's been hiding from the American taxpayers:
WSJ -- Top U.S., European Banks Got $50 Billion in AIG Aid
The beneficiaries of the government's bailout of American International Group Inc. include at least two dozen U.S. and foreign financial institutions that have been paid roughly $50 billion since the Federal Reserve first extended aid to the insurance giant.
Among those institutions are Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Germany's Deutsche Bank AG, each of which received roughly $6 billion in payments between mid-September and December 2008, according to a confidential document and people familiar with the matter.
Other banks that received large payouts from AIG late last year include Merrill Lynch, now part of Bank of America Corp., and French bank Société Générale SA.
More than a dozen firms with smaller exposures to AIG also received payouts, including Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and HSBC Holdings PLC, according to the confidential document.
The names of all of AIG's derivative counterparties and the money they have received from taxpayers still isn't known, but The Wall Street Journal has identified some of them and is publishing others here for the first time.
I try to be optimistic but I don't think we can put the clothes back on the Emperor. He's naked, we saw it, we know it. Home prices will not skyrocket again because we are now scared to be that stupid and get burned again. But we may start buying ipods and patio furniture again. We do love our big tv's. So hopefully the business world isn't going to die off and maybe we can resume some kind of 'normalcy'. I hope.
Worst or best, all I know is I'm changing my name to "AIG".
Best case = 0nly 80% of the human population dies off.
Worst case = +95%
Either way class...
enjoy the die off!!!
Best case? The Clinton's oust Obama in a bloodless coup. Bad but survivable.
Worst Case? Obama leads us into WWIII and creates a totalitarian regime.
"The time will come when the banks in every nation will fail... A terrible revolution will take place in the land of America , such as has never been seen before; for the land will be literally left without a supreme government, and every species of wickedness will run rampant." It hath been foretold ~ Nauvoo, Illinois, May 7th, 1843
The best case scenario is that crime does not escalate, at least not more so than it currently is. High paying jobs are replaced with lower paying jobs instead of nothing at all, and the stock market bottoms at around 3000 or so. No wars, USD still respected.
Worst case scenario? War with Iran, Venezuela, and Russia thanks to the economy and the oil crash. The stock market crashing to zero, USD no longer respected as THE currency, americas rating damaged, civil unrest.
I still think we are in for serious civil unrest in the forms of theft, murder, and robbery as opposed to semi-orderly euro-style riots and protests. However we are thankfully still in the best case scenario territory. Hopefully I am not being too optimistic.
If the only piece of information you had to go on was the median level of moral sentiment in contemporary human beings, what would you predict?
I have often wondered if the current financial crisis is the result of incompetence/shortsidedness of our politicians, or if it was more of the corporations pulling the strings behind the scenes . . . somewhere I have heard the term corporatocracy. The latter is more likely the case (following Grandma PKK) but what is the endgame? Why was the derivative market allowed get so out of control (>$700 trillion)-- are the corporations short-sighted as well, grabbing for all they can get as quickly as they can get it? Nothing against HP'ers/SA'ers and others who have seen this coming on for years, but if we can, surely somebody in decision-making capacity can as well . . . so what is it? What is the endgame and why?
just got back from the kfi /Arnold tax revolt in Fullerton, CA on 3/7/09
15,000 strong they thought maybe 3000 would show... THE PEOPLE OF CALIFORNIA ARE PISSED
TIME TO "RECALL THEM ALL"
THIS IS JUST THE START WE WILL TAKE BACK THIS STATE AND COUNTRY ..
WHATS LEFT OF IT
We are where we are, because reality is catching up with us.
Every bailout attempt, will NOT work.
C'mon, do you really believe economic growth based on consumption fueled by borrowed money is genuine growth ?
Thats another false measure, massaging statistics and figures to make debtors feel good and optimistic.
Fraudulent methods of measuring growth by ALL administrations got us where we are.
And continual bailouts to try and take us back to where we were; consuming and living the high life on borrowed money, will lead to the eventual demise of the US.
If we hope to get out of this, we better face up to reality.
Stop believing in false Messiahs who can wave a magic wand and make everything better.
One solution is grow more food.
The US can be the world's bread basket.
First and last, everyone needs food, shelter and then clothing.
Good luck everyone
here you go keith. did you see this story?
the story of jim cramer. i will never watch this guy again for anything.
http://tinyurl.com/bzj9qf
What is the endgame and why?
Worst Case? Obama leads us into WWIII and creates a totalitarian regime.
March 8, 2009 1:59 AM
Quit smoking crack. Obbbbammmy or the Clintons enslaving real men. Go to sleep dem retard. The only retards they will dominate are people like you. Let them try to take it further. We are waiting.
BTW - anyone else remember the big Y2K supposed meltdown? Where the streets were supposed to be filled with rampaging hordes, and the so-called "Smart People" were digging bunkers in the mountains? Last I checked, those folks were looking pretty sheepish...
Obviously I haven't forgotten. I think a lot of posters have been in the bunkers since 2000, latching on to the doomsday theory of the moment ever since (and probably starting long earlier too). Peak oil was big not so long ago--we were all going to freeze and starve when oil went to $1000/barrel.. how did that turn out? Now we're going to have a massive die off, civilization collapse, world population to fall 80%... all due to.. a huge oversupply of houses? Hmm.
Bukko_in_Australia said...
Best-case scenario? People grow the fuck up, start living responsibly (including responsibly when it concerns how they treat the planet.) They work hard, work smart, live within their means. They follow science -- HELLO! global warming head-up-your-assers! Go stand in that corner with the plate tectonics deniers, the Flat Earthers and the "sun revolves around the Earth because it says so in the Bible" folks. They stop being blind followers of stupid shit like religion and racism that says "You must kill everyone who's different to you." They stop breeding like malignant cancer cells.
Shut up you sleazy dumbass. You stole everything you have from the tax payers of clownifornia. If you lived on what you made rather than what you you've stolen you would be homeless. Sleezebag.
Grandma PKK:
Usually I like your posts and agree with a lot that you write. But this post "...George Bush signed approx 150 executive orders his last few weeks..." got me wondering. Wikipedia says otherwise. I checked both pardons and executive orders.
Anonymous: re God King Obama cut:
I recommend you read:
When Corporations Rule the World by
David Korten pub 1994 as a starting point, to see who might really be ruling the world. The wealth of corporations collectively is literally unfathomable; they have called the shots for years in every area of life, globally.
Don't try to be smart. You suck at it. Obbbammmyyy is after abolute power. After he got elected he threw them under the bus just like America. Hitler types are Hitler types.
Best-case scenario is to get down:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWSllse5Q2I
Sometimes it is hard to see into the future when everyone is drunk from Greed.
Didn't the policy maker who relaxed regulations and let the economy grow out of control join in on the party and got drunk themselves.
http://www.fox4kc.com/news/
sns-ap-ks--wichita-
homelesskids,0,6273338.story
Wichita school district study finds 1,200 students are functionally homeless
Wichita school officials have identified 1,200 students who meet federal education guidelines for being homeless.
District leaders had estimated the number to be around 1,000. But a more precise way for determining the living arrangements of a student's parents has provided a clearer look at the problem.
Sue Steele, a district liaison officer charged with helping homeless students, says the higher number is worrisome because she expects more children to become homeless as the recession takes a toll on family incomes.
While the rich is in a recession the poor is in a depression.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com
/id/29551931/
The frightful economic statistics have people living in fear.
"The fear of being homeless, or the fear of not having enough to eat. It's scary," said Michelle George.
It's likely to get even scarier. Economic analysts expect even higher unemployment - perhaps 10 percen
With that decline, there is also an increase in the number of Indiana workers who find themselves in places they'd rather not be.
Unemployment in Indiana hasn't been this high since the early 1980's. More than 320,000 Hoosiers can't find steady work.
The St. Vincent de Paul food pantry organizers say it's one of the country's largest. Every week, it now helps feed 10,500 people in 3,000 homes, many of them children.
I did see the local Ron Paul meetup group leader creating a meet for the KFI tax revolt in Fullerton. I wonder if the folks from moveon.org organized for thi event.
It was so funny. One day I get a call from moveon.org wanting to me reinstate the monthly payment I was making to them. I had pulled the plug on the in the middle of 08 Obama campaign because they were blindly in support of Obama. i had watched FISA, the war funding, and the bailout pass and moveon.org didn't create ANY opposition or followup to these issues.
Well back to the funny part.. The guy calls me up for money. I asked him why moveon.org supported Pelosi so vehemently. He said because there was no alternative. I told here there was Cindy Sheehan. He told me she was from the fringe. That's all I wanted to hear to confirm m suspicions that moveon.org had blind followers and is a large pac for the democrats.
No soup for you moveon.org!
Keith can we get rid of anonymous posts? It;s not fair to those who post with their identities to receive flak for their posts from cowardly, untraceable sources.
All Boarded Up
http://tinyurl.com/d85qak
Coming soon to YOUR neighborhood!
There is a difference between this downturn and the Great Depression.
There were no food stamps during the Great Depression.
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix
/stories/2009/03/02/daily72.html
Number of food stamp recipients up in Arizona, nationally
December data — the most recent available for the program -- showed 31.8 million individuals in the U.S. receiving food vouchers and assistance through Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program SNAP.
I am a police in a major US market. Do not believe the Alex Jones police state b.s. My dept is dysfunctional beyond belief. We are lead by idoits that have not "policed" in decades if ever. We are out gunned and out maned. Our training is woefully inadiquite and our prepairedness level is non-existant. I feel bad for the citizens I *try* to protect. When the SHTF, the Workers will get slaughtered and the Dogs will run and hide. Cops are like anyone else, most have no clue what is around the corner. We will be taken by surprise like 90 pect of the population. During the Great Depression, cops were paid with IOUs. I am waiting for the day my boss orders me to come to work b ut tells me that I will not get paid. Will my mortgage co take an IOU?? That will be a bad day. I fully expect the military to step in and tell us to go home. U are all on your own. Good luck.
Hey Mitesh -- don't let some anonymous idiot get on your nerves, Laugh at him, mate!
It's just a single sorehead, posting over and over. Would you get upset if a second-grader called you a poopy-head? No, because it was the squeakings of an infant. Anyone who's too technologically incompetent to create a Blogger ID is not to be feared. You should be HAPPY that you've irritated a nitwit! One of the main reasons I post here is to piss that jerk off. I love irritating jackasses.
And P.S. Mitesh -- good onya for withdrawing your tithe to MoveOn. I'm on the Left politically, but I can't stand Pelosi either because she's such a spineless, impeachment-off-the-table corporate shill. Shirley Golub is who should have beaten Pelosi in the S.F. Democratic primary.
And anonymous who posted about the food stamps -- the bad flip side to that is that in the 1930s, a much higher percentage of the American population was connected to farms. As the Bush Depression worsens, a HUGE number of people won't have any ag opportunities to keep from starving. They'll need those food stamps -- if there's enough food to back them up.
Money...in it's most esoteric sense, is just a numbers game.
The machines are still out there. Factories lay idle.
It's so painfully obvious what they have to do it's laughable.
Back to a gold standard. Have the Euro-Nations give China and Russia's govternments a little of our gold. Then "declare" a new fixed price that make the governments "wealthy" again.
From running the numbers, the only safe number would be 100k/oz in order to "kick the can" far enough into the future to be able to "bail out" the derivatives problem and still not go broke.
In 80 years, when the gold standard becomes a problem again...go off of it just like they did in the days of yore.
It's a back and forth kind of thing.
Then, "confiscate" gold. Who wouldn't give their measly few ounces to the government for more 100x todays price? They wouldn't feel "violated"...they would feel like they won the lottery. And the governments would have all the gold.
If the public wishes to redeem it for cash. Tax it at income rates.
If the public wishes to redeem it for housing "coupons" don't tax it.
I'd feel comfortable losing 200k on a 600k house if it meant giving up my gold for a few coupons.
People would be able to pay off some debt with their wedding bands and then go buy silver rings.
Let gold become money again instead of ostentatious "bling".
And there would be inflation. Not too much as the government could be completely in control of the money supply and most would go towards either paying off debt, buying people out of their homes at their inflated asking prices and a little spending on top to give the economy another kick down the road for the next few decades at least.
ok we are where we are and where we are is not where we are supposed to be so this is where we are and we pray to frankie lymon and the teenagers to get us from where we are now to where we are supposed to be which is not where we are now ok got it feel a lot better getting that off my mind and to all the %54 who gave us where we are which is not where we want to be thank you and the sitcom continues where you are which may not be where you would like to be
the best case is that Suzanne runs for president in 2012. the worst case, suzanne doesn't win.
Blogger Mitesh Damania said...
I did see the local Ron Paul meetup group leader creating a meet for the KFI tax revolt in Fullerton. I wonder if the folks from moveon.org organized for thi event.
It was so funny. One day I get a call from moveon.org wanting to me reinstate the monthly payment I was making to them. I had pulled the plug on the in the middle of 08 Obama campaign because they were blindly in support of Obama. i had watched FISA, the war funding, and the bailout pass and moveon.org didn't create ANY opposition or followup to these issues.
Well back to the funny part.. The guy calls me up for money. I asked him why moveon.org supported Pelosi so vehemently. He said because there was no alternative. I told here there was Cindy Sheehan. He told me she was from the fringe. That's all I wanted to hear to confirm m suspicions that moveon.org had blind followers and is a large pac for the democrats.
No soup for you moveon.org!
March 8, 2009 8:01 AM<<<
well why don't you tell me why it is that a organization like that, makes a lot of noise, but nothing ever happens? who is the main money man behind that group?
We're going to have a lost decade or more. There is still downside to go thru in the stock market and economy. There are a number of reasons for this but two of them have to do with confidence and the realistic prospects for America in the future.
Confidence: as more and more people lose confidence in our financial and political leaders, it will lead to increased savings and less consumption...hoarding in other words. This of course leads to an economic death spiral since without consumption companies lay off people and this further erodes confidence, which decreases consumption and increases unemployment. And in the future, more and more people will lose confidence in our ability to come back once they realize we have nothing to produce anymore. Which leads to the next point....
America's Future: As I look out over the next 10 to 20 years, I am somewhat pessimistic about our future. Why? Well, because we don't make anything anymore that we consume ourselves or can sell overseas. There's really nothing. For industries where we actually do have something of value it's really "old value" that is being commoditized or it doesn't have big growth potential. Here's my assessment:
GONE
Autos
Real estate
Finance
Consumer Electronics
Heavy Manufacturing
Light manufacturing
Textiles
Customer Support
MATURE
Pharmaceuticals
Communications
Technology
Natural Resources (commoditized)
DON'T HAVE
Energy
Transportation (that is, infrastructure)
HAVE
Assembly manufacturing
Genetics
Agriculture
Entertainment
Military
Aerospace
Healthcare
Education
The only place where economies can get sustained growth is from industries that they HAVE. So, can the HAVE industries above lead us out of what we're in...I don't think so. Here's why:
Assembly manufacturing: not a basis for leading an economy out of severe recession. This is driven by other industries that hand-off products to it that are created by core demand.
Genetics: takes too long to develop products...ten, fifteen, twenty years to get a product to market.
Agriculture: we are leaders in agriculture and this can be a source of growth in the future (and will) but it's not core enough to get people in employed since machines do a better job at farming than people.
Entertainment: this industry is too small in terms of dollar-size; plus, it's also one of the last things people spend money on in times of recessions.
Military: selling arms can't bring us out of recessions.
Aerospace: not something people can consume.
Healthcare: potential here but this is more of a income-destoyer than income-producer.
Education: really just a function of government, largely, and can't create sustained growth. Also, a degree in higher education is becoming less and less valuable due to technology, and fewer foreign students will be coming here when their economies collapse.
So there you have it. Out of the possible HAVE industries not one can lead us out. And no combination of them can either.
This is why I'm pessimistic. I've never felt this way before about America.
> HELLO! global warming head-up-your-assers! Go stand in that corner with the plate tectonics deniers, the Flat Earthers and the "sun revolves around the Earth...
Bukko, one thing that is NOT acceptable here is spouting talking points. Left or Right, you get your ass handed to you for not doing your own thinking.
Responding to INDEPENDENT thought with your Huffington post diatribe proves that YOU are the one who is feable minded. Grow up. And here's your ass. Now get out.
Best Case: Governments from around the world arrest ALL the people that caused this mess. Has Large International Trials like the Nerenberg Germany Trials after world war 2 for the Nazis. Sends convicted criminals to Saudi Arabia for public execution by the sword. Angelo Mozilo, Ken Lewis, Madoff, Stanford, and so on.
Public gains confidence in capitalist system : when Bailout money is returned to the US Teasury, housing is Nationalized, 401k plans are protected, student loans are now grants, all personal debt is wiped out, and everyone gets a fresh start. The Government works on honesty puts dishonest greedy fraudsters in jail, rewards hard working people, and students that want to have an education.
Wost case: If this contiues: Large debt, Large Bank Failures, FDIC needs bailout, Riots, Unemployment, starving, revolutions, nuclear exchange, end of the world.
I caught the last hour of "Idiocracy" on Comedy Central last night. It's starting to look more and more like reality.
With Spell Check:
Best Case: Governments from around the world arrest ALL the people that caused this mess. Has Large International Trials like the Nuremberg Germany Trials after World War 2 for the Nazis. Sends convicted criminals to Saudi Arabia for public execution by the sword. Angelo Mozilo, Ken Lewis, Madoff, Stanford, and so on.
Public gains confidence in capitalist system when Bailout money is returned to the US Treasury, housing is Nationalized, 401k plans are protected, student loans are now grants, all personal debt is wiped out, and everyone gets a fresh start. The Government works on honesty puts dishonest greedy fraudsters in jail, rewards hard working people, and students that want to have an education.
Worst Case: If this continues: Large debt, Large Bank Failures, FDIC needs bailout, Riots, Unemployment, starving, revolutions, nuclear exchange, and end of the world.
Warning to the Brits
-> http://tinyurl.com/a9s7m6
Tick, tick tick
The set-up from here is the great derivatives implosion. I fully expect JPM/AIG/GS/GE/BAC to fully implode and become worthless.
When this happens, the world will look on in stunned silence. You see, the so-called-experts have no model for the end game.
They are just thrashing around thowing out trillions and we are still no better off.
Get ready for a much deeper crisis starting now.
Joe M.
Hey Bukko. Try reading this for some actual science (non-dailykos science).
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/03/08/wheres_global_warming/
Likely to happen? Nah.
I told here there was Cindy Sheehan. He told me she was from the fringe. That's all I wanted to hear to confirm m suspicions that moveon.org had blind followers and is a large pac for the democrats.
No soup for you moveon.org!
==========================
Dude, Moveon.org is funded by BILLIONAIRE George Soros! They don't need YOUR money.
Lamaria said...
‘I still think we are in for serious civil unrest in the forms of theft, murder, and robbery as opposed to semi-orderly euro-style riots and protests.’
Dude, are you sitting on your brains?
In all of history, Europe has not had 50 consecutive years without extreme brutal and savage human destruction.
They are still the same today.
It is so obvious.
Europe blew the biggest opportunity, ‘post WWII’ period.
The minute they found their footing they began the unconditional support of every one of lifes enemies.
It's hard to say at this point. I think there are three likely outcomes, none of them good:
1. All this money the Fed/adminstration has injected works, and inflation soars, dollar is compromised.
2. It doesn't work, and we have a lost decade(s) similar to Japan.
L shaped going forward.
3. It REALLY doesn't work, and we move into the Greatest Depression.
with a Celente forecasted outcome of riots, food shortages, people behaving like animals, etc.
My motto: Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. And one more thing....Suzanne in 2012!
"Mitesh Damania said...
Keith can we get rid of anonymous posts? It;s not fair to those who post with their identities to receive flak for their posts from cowardly, untraceable sources.
March 8, 2009 8:03 AM"
Mommy Mommy, I'm SPECIAL. The Big Boys took my lunch money (again). Boo hoo hoo. Make them stop, Mommy.
I'm SPECIAL. I'm BETTER than they are. They disagree and mock my funny retarded views. I guess I'll have to move to San Francisco..
Keith, Help ME Keith!
PUSSY
From here on, there will be more and more white-collar jobs being cut.
Once this gets in full swing, we'll
start to see some really nasty stuff happening in our streets.
Here in HB Ca., I hear several of the residents continually speak about how bad the economy is doing and how the value of property keeps sinking lower and lower.
This depression has only just started, it get's far, far worse in the coming months and years ahead.
>>Best-case scenario? People grow the fuck up, start living responsibly (including responsibly when it concerns how they treat the planet.) They work hard, work smart, live within their means.<<
Ha! This from an union parasite who helped to bankrupt California and now is trying to bankrupt Australia. Oh yeah, we need advice from you, "tabloid reporter who became nurse".
These liberal types bring millions of illiterate illegals into California and still have the nerve to be whining about "sustainable living", "environmental protection", "living responsibly." Sure buddy, we can see how you lived responsibly in California by ripping taxpayers off with your union parasite jobs.
Seriously, please don't breed, Bukko.
Keith can we get rid of anonymous posts? It;s not fair to those who post with their identities to receive flak for their posts from cowardly, untraceable sources.
There comes Mr. H-1B trying to impose his cast system in the US. So now all the hundreds of anonymous posting here should be classified as "untouchables", Mitesh?
Boohooo, whiners can't take a joke.
Anyone who's too technologically incompetent to create a Blogger ID is not to be feared.
Hey Bukko, how's that? Better?
Just in the immediate term, I do not see things improving. We will blast by the sixteen month record in no time. I also don't see an end to the downward spiral in the long term. I imagine that we will all learn how to make due with much less, and get used t the bad news. Personally I am surviving, and I think that I will be much better off since the major capitalists have all failed. Are you really better off paying 29% interest to Citi and BofA?
Let it go, black-ops faking an attack to keep the Brits under mind control and to pass more rigid police state crap on citizens. And people still for these inside job bull$hit? Brown comes to the US to spill his NWO agenda and cap-and-trade scam, then immediately after he arrives in London the fake attack happens. Hey, but it came out on state-owned BBC, so it must be true, right?
LA Times -- Leaders from across the political spectrum vowed Sunday that the first fatal attack on British soldiers in Northern Ireland in 12 years would not derail the peace process put in motion by the historic 1998 accord between Catholic republicans and Protestant loyalists.
The shooting Saturday night at the British army base in the county of Antrim left two soldiers dead and wounded four people, including a pair of pizzeria workers who were making a delivery when the assailants struck.
A dissident republican group reportedly claimed responsibility for the attack, which revived bad memories of the region's "troubles," the many years of sectarian strife in which more than 3,000 people in Northern Ireland died.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown described the assault as an "evil and cowardly" act certain to fail in its political aims. "We will do everything in our power to make sure that Northern Ireland is safe and secure, and I assure you that we will bring these murderers to justice," Brown told the BBC.
Authorities said that the attack in Antrim, not far from Belfast, appeared to have been planned in advance. The gunmen, who remain at large
IT'S ALL RIGGED! Don't fall for this mind control bull$hit!
Again with the 10-point plan?
Also known as Kieth's silver bullet points.
Are you really still suggesting that there's a pain-free solution?
Anon said:
‘IT'S ALL RIGGED! Don't fall for this mind control bull$hit!’
Huh?
Don’t the Irish have a right to resist the British occupation?
Don’t the Scots?
Best case scenario: Someone blows up a bunch of bank buildings circa Fight Club.
Worst case: The banks keep looting the country.
You keep talking about how this country is collapsing and the end is near but there is something you seem to forget. As long as evryone in this country can continue to drive around aimlessly in the cars there will be no collapse. Americans do not care about the stock market crashing or the if they can make a mortgage payment or if their 401k is disappearing or even if they have money for food. Their only concern is happy motoring and only if they cannot drive a car will you begin to see a collapse in this country. And quit talking about peak oil. Even if this is true there is enough gas for years to come. This country runs on cars and the lazy fat Americans who need them so give it a rest will you there is no collapse just look around you do you see people walking or riding a bicycle more. A big fat no!
The worst scenario is playing out right now.
The ONLY scenerio that will restore health/confidence in our financial system involves complete annihilation of 'too big to fail' institutions and intensive forensic accounting of past/present fraudulent transactions, followed up with stringent enforcement/prosecution.
Then, we must follow the 'dirty' money trail into the halls of power and exterminate the rats...legally, of course.
Thank you, my anonymous fan! I am glad I stimulated you to think and respond.
It's because I'm an interesting bloke, and I project my personality through my writing. I become real on these web pages. You even enjoy writing my name, "Bukko, Bukko, Bukko," because I'm a standout character!
Meanwhile, your personality registers as zero, because you can't even come up with an ID. Merely writing "bukkotheunionmemberwinner" is not enough, but you do pay homage to my screen name by doing it. You're in awe of me, you really are.
To address some of the points you brought up, nameless grouchy person, I read the op-ed piece from the Boston Globe. It would help if you learned how to code hyperlinks like this but you're not technically sophisticated. That's one of the reasons I'm confident I'm smarter than you are. But I can cut 'n' paste into a browser window, so I did.
I can also click on the links in that opinion (not science section) piece in the Globe. I went to the source documents that Jacoby cited. Among other things, I found these quotes:
"We stress, however, that this error in no way changes the scientific conclusions about the long-term decline of Arctic sea ice, which is based on the the consistent, quality-controlled data archive discussed above." from a NASA-supported organisation that Jacoby cites as denying global warming.
And there's this from an Oregon newspaper story he cites: "But 2008 was also the ninth warmest year since records began in 1880, and 10 of the warmest years on record have come in the past 12 years. The temperature was about average compared with the mean temperature between 1951 and 1980, which made it cool compared with other recent years, the scientists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City concluded." Jacoby claims 2008 was WARM, but it was just average which is enough to make it seem cool in comparison to recent years.
Like many right-wing liars, Jacoby snatches snippets from something that supports his claim, while ignoring the entirety of the source documents, which contradict him. He's like someone writing blurbs for movie ads. If a reviewer writes "This movie is the greatest waste of time EVER!" then the lying blurb-writer will do an ad with "This movie is the greatest!"
I realise that you will never be convonced that global warming is real. In the 1500s, there were many people who went to their graves believing the world was flat. But they were trivial nobodies who had no influence on the course of world events. As are you.
One thing, though. If you're going to call someone "feable-minded," you should learn to spell "feeble" correctly. Otherwise, you look stewpid.
(That's a joke, dummy. I'm being ironic by criticising your stupid spelling while deliberately misspelling something myself. I hate it when I have to explain humour to clueless people.)
As to my family, thanks for your concern. I do have a daughter. My ex-wife and I conceived her in 1988, when it looked like the world was going to get better because of the collapse of communism. She's in university now, left-wing politically, has read books like Howard Zinn's "People's History of the United States," speaks Spanish and Japanese in addition to English, has already traveled to Japan, India and Australia, and may immigrate here as the U.S. collapses. She has a bright future. I wish I could say the same about your children, but you probably don't have any. Selfish people are usually sad, angry loners.
But again, I appreciate your interest in my life. Bukko fascinates you, doesn't he?
(Thank you for allowing me to spout, Keith. I'm not as pompous as this comes across as, but I'm writing this way because I enjoy rattling anonymous's cage.)
"Bukko_in_Australia said...
Hey Mitesh -- don't let some anonymous idiot get on your nerves, Laugh at him, mate!
It's just a single sorehead, posting over and over. Would you get upset if a second-grader called you a poopy-head? No, because it was the squeakings of an infant."
-About to be thrown off the Island permanentlt WITH prejudice x 2.
Responding to MORONIC thought with your well-thought-out arguments proves that YOU are the one who is feable minded. Grow up. And here's your ass. Now get out.
One more thing, "Too much debt". Is that an alternative name for "Keith-the-owner-of-this-blog"? Because if it's not, then I don't think you're the one to be deciding who's kicked out of the comments section. If I get on his nerves enough, then HE can kick me off HIS blog.
I enjoy a good blog pissing match. When I'm in one, I refrain from making hollow threats I can't back up. That's because I don't like to come across as a blustering fool. Obviously, that doesn't bother you.
Best case : I turn out to be paranoid.
Worst case: I turn out to be right.
Look Bukko,
Ok, you care to create a blogger ID, you embed links and you can spell as well as a computer. That's 90% of your argument.
Yes, the Boston Globe thing was more about the media representation of the facts than the science, basically saying that this winter was very cold but you heard nothing of it. If it had been warm, you know they'd be making a bid deal about it. It's called selective reporting.
Now you claim I'm the mean guy when you incited this pissing match writing
>Go stand in that corner with the plate tectonics deniers, the Flat Earthers and the "sun revolves around the Earth because it says so in the Bible" folks. They stop being blind followers of stupid shit like religion and racism that says "You must kill everyone who's different to you."
That is hate speech dude. You're saying that anyone that begs to differ on global warming or like myself says, where is nuclear in this whole discussion, then we're akin to murders. And the first half of it I've heard come out of Arianna's mouth in an interview in October. That's sloppy, despite the impeccable spelling.
Heya, Debt. Criticism is not "hate speech." Saying "We should kill fags/Muslims/namethegroup" is hate speech. Sneering at people who blindly follow religion is not "hate." It's scorn. And lumping global warming deniers with Flat Earthers is sarcasm.
At work, I'm well-known for my amusing sarcasm, usually directed at management, U.S. politicians and similar fools. As a result, people don't give me much crap. Americans are regarded as slightly scary, because the constant stories on the TV news about U.S. gun rampages give us a reputation as being borderline psycho. Or maybe it's just me.
As for warming, Oz is in a 10-year drought. Unprecedented. Only, it's not a "drought," it's the new normal. People are slow to admit it, because it's scary to glom that the good old days are all gone. Melbourne had its hottest temperature ever recorded last month. The highest number of people in Australia's history got burned alive that day. The Murray, the main river that feeds this state, is more like a series of billabongs than a flowing watercourse.
I reckon we're about five years from collapse. Oz is a great place, but impending eco-doom from global warming is why I'm not resisting my wife's desire to immigrate to Canada, where there's water. I'm not just going on Al Gore's theory -- I'm basing my actions on what I see with my own eyes.
I've always been one to follow my instincts, after I've weighed the evidence. That's why my wife and I sold our house at what turned out to be the peak of the market, and got out of America before realPresident Cheney's policies collapsed it. We tend to jump a bit prematurely, because the world moves more slowly than we think. But I'd rather be one of the first rats to jump off the sinking ship. Less ratshit in the water that way. ("Ratshit" is Aussie slang for "craziness.")
As for nuclear, I could go into a diatribe about how much water the mining wastes, how it ADDS to greenhouse gases because of the massive amounts of coal-powered electricity it takes to dig up and refine the stuff, the pollution it dumps on Aboriginal lands, etc. And that's not even getting into the expense, melt-down, spent nuke waste, yada yada. But this is not the place for it.
Not that it matters anyway. Nobody whose opinion is already formed ever had their mind changed by a blog argument. This is all pointless yakking. But I'm on a midnight shift, the patients are stable, and this helps keep me awake. If my brain wasn't so tired, and I could concentrate enough to make sense of Mish and his commenters, I'd be reading instead of writing.
And thanks for your compliment about my spelling. I never use spellcheck; it's just something I've always been good at. Back when I was a reporter for smaller papers where we'd print out our stories and paste them up on page dummies on deadline, it was an asset.
"That is hate speech dude. You're saying that anyone that begs to differ on global warming or like myself says, where is nuclear in this whole discussion, then we're akin to murders."
OK, mate, you've got me. Sometimes I make a hypocrite of myself, but nobody's perfect. I think Jesus said that man isn't perfect.
Hey Rico...this one's for you:
Too Big has Failed
by
Thomas Hoenig
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
http://www.kc.frb.org/speechbio/hoenigPDF/Omaha.03.06.09.pdf
I found this on Naked Capitalism today and it's the only hopeful thing I've read in a long, long time. (It actually sounds like a workable plan.)
At work, I'm well-known for my amusing sarcasm, usually directed at management, U.S. politicians and similar fools. As a result, people don't give me much crap. Americans are regarded as slightly scary, because the constant stories on the TV news about U.S. gun rampages give us a reputation as being borderline psycho. Or maybe it's just me.
There isn't anything amusing about you Bukko, your a legend in your own mind and and a bad joke in everyone else's mind.
Ok Bukko,
We all make mistakes once in a while. Even myself believe it or not ;)
The world has over 20 trillion worth of valueless paper, but we also just lost 50 trillion in wealth, with more to come. So I don't see hyperinflation in the picture. I see inflation for certain useful commodities, such as food etc, but oil and gas will likely stay low for a year or so, and then rise moderately due to the closures in the energy industries and cutbacks in the oil producing countries. If we are simply dealing with a major new depression, then we'll do okay, yeah, we'll have a lost decade or two, there will be food shortages, crime is going to soar, yadda, yadda, yadd. The real trouble I see, is that one of our enemies may well choose to lob a nuke our way. More likely to be Iran than the USSR, although the USSR MIGHT simply try taking Alaska, and see if Obama does anything other than run to Big Momma World Court in The Hague. If Iran does this, it I presume even Obama - who really seems a complete nincompoop on the foreign policy front - will grow a pair, and fire a salvo back. That would discourage the Russian bear. If the USSR acts first, and it might, because Obama is showing weakness in letting China push our Navy around, then we may be toast. I sure hope that if anything happens, it will be a single hit by some terrorist nation - which could be a learning experience for the POTUS - as opposed to the USSR starting WWIII, because if we have a REAL war on our hands, and Obama is in the office in his current stage of arrogance, cowardice, and stupidity, we are gonna lose.
" Anonymous said...
"The time will come when the banks in every nation will fail... A terrible revolution will take place in the land of America , such as has never been seen before; for the land will be literally left without a supreme government, and every species of wickedness will run rampant." It hath been foretold ~ Nauvoo, Illinois, May 7th, 1843"
Anon didn't want to go on record that this was stated by Joseph Smith. Like mormons or don't like mormons, many mormon prophecies intersect with prophecies by the Hopi, Dimitri Duduman and many others.
You will see a progressive deterioration of this country and the rest of the world for that matter. There will be upheaval and a breakdown of social order(think of Katrina all over). The russians and chinese will attack. Russia will nuke our silos and some cities(see both Duduman "nuclear warehouses" and George Albert Smith vision).
Joseph Smith said to Mosiah Hancock that the chinese would invade and make it as far as the rocky mountains where they would be defeated by miraculous means with help also from "the boys from the mountains" (see George Washington's vision). I carry the burden of having the gift of dicernment according to my LDS patriarchal blessing.
I saw the economy bust-up and the severe social effects like the current murder-suicides in march 2006.
I hope to be wrong but I'm afraid we are in it deep.
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