I said Obama would win in 2006 when he was the darkest of dark horses, 100+ to 1 (125 to 1 actually). So it's funny to go back and re-read all the "Hillary has it in the bag" comments, or "McCain in a landslide thanks to Palin" stuff.
And in 2012, I'm telling you now it'll be Obama vs. Romney. With a significant third party (independent) challenge, who might even out-poll the now-dead GOP. That independent will be known as mainstream media or business, not necessarily politics. I'm picturing a white, male, right-of-center patriotic populist. Maybe Lou Dobbs. Maybe Glenn Beck. Maybe Joe Scarborough, or even Jesse Ventura. Or hell, maybe Ross Perot or Ron Paul or Michael Bloomberg.
Romney 2.0, who will run as a reborn centrist low-tax pro-business reformer and not stupidly as a right-wing culture monkey loon (again), will beat out a hilarious motley crew of laughable GOP lightweights (Palin, Jindal, Pawlenty, Crist). With maybe a military guy and Huckabee coming close. Newt will get in the race, but will drop out early because of his financial and sex scandals.
The independent and Romney will split the anti-Obama vote, taking 42% combined. Obama (or Biden) will win with 58%.
It hath been foretold.
But go vote in the poll, and also get your predictions in here, including how funny and enjoyable (yet darkly scary) the Palin 2012 or Jindal 2012 campaign will be. And remember to pull up this post in four years. You'll be amazed.
Throw up some names and I'll do another straw poll of potential candidates.
And get ready. They'll be kicking things off in Iowa in not too long.
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29 comments:
I have a feeling we won't be able to pull anything up on the internet that hasn't been given "party approval" by the Ministry of Truth.
in 2012 it will have to be a 3rd party candidate. The public isn't that stupid, or are they?
Why "(or Bidne)"? Where will Obama be?
Normally, a person's religious affiliation and level of faith should be a personal matter and not a factor in public office. Sometimes, however, a person's faith can be of such extremes that it does become an issue. This is the case with Mitt Romney.
The clean wholesome image with conservative values that is the presentation of modern Mormonism is certainly something that many admire and strive for, but the underlying history has a trail that is nothing less than extreme, bizarre, racist and even anti-Semitic.
Romney ignoring it, laughing it off or making an occasional polygamy joke does not play well to his GOP base on a national level.
He is a bright guy, a decent businessman and a slick politician. He will not though be elected by the GOP as their candidate. Conservative Christians will eat him up again.
PALIN !!!!!!!!
well maybe so keith, but you see how it is? the vote doesn't matter and when people get mad they always form a third party and what this does is simply split the vote so that the one that is the president designee wins. so 'they' win, no matter what. the vote is no longer useful to us. never was probably. now is the time for pitchforks
I think history will be very kind to our Obama time. In fact, he would probably win if he decided to run again. But my bet is the man will have had it by 2012 and will decide it's not worth it and want to spend more time with his family. I hope Romney does run - because he won't win. We have tried the Republican way and it almost took our country down - we have to find the middle of the road.
BO will lose to whoever is the repub nominee because the economy will be in tatters and voters will want change no matter who that change is.
Anonymous mimi said...
I think history will be very kind to our Obama time. In fact, he would probably win if he decided to run again. But my bet is the man will have had it by 2012 and will decide it's not worth it and want to spend more time with his family. I hope Romney does run - because he won't win. We have tried the Republican way and it almost took our country down - we have to find the middle of the road.
April 4, 2009 3:14 PM<<<<
political parties don't mean anything. they just try and make the sheep think that their vote means something and that in the political process, the sheep can vote for the person of their choice. the trouble is that there is no choice. they are all the same. they just appear to be different for your benefit. this is the game and how it is played. until the sheep wakeup and realize this, the game will continue. how can anyone in good conscience, think that somehow we have any choice or any power in this thing called the political process, when we allow a small group of private bankers control our money? money is power and power is money. if we don't control our money, then we don't control our country and our leaders. the bankers control our country and our leaders by any means necessary.
I'm rooting for Palin.
Certainly not out of any benevolent motive.
This cuntry needs a bastard as 1st grandchild leading the party of family values.
"Some of you don't like my 2012 Presidential poll. Fine. Who do you think will be on the ballot in 2012?"
Since we are assuming Obama won't run in 2012, I think the jokers that the American Oligarchs would run are going to be:
1. Sarah Palin, Libertarian.
2. Jeb Bush, Republican.
3. Hillary Clinton, Democrat.
"We have tried the Republican way and it almost took our country down"
Well, Bush and the "Republicans" of the last 8 years weren't conservative. We've tried the liberal/marxist way for the last 96 years and it's taking the country down.
Wow Keith you really believe the American people are as stupid as you and the rest of Obbammyys crack smoking voters. If there is anything left of this country it will vote en mass against party boy. Even his real supporters (those who have never worked) will be pissed because whitey will be completely destitute with no mos for the racist in cheif to seize and give them. All they will know is hyperinflation and misery due to the god kings crazy spending that resulted from his insane scheme to seize absolute power. No you are completely blind when it comes to your god king. It hath been fortold.
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Probably the same Step n Fetch it we have now
sad
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Anonymous Anonymous said...
"Some of you don't like my 2012 Presidential poll. Fine. Who do you think will be on the ballot in 2012?"
Since we are assuming Obama won't run in 2012, I think the jokers that the American Oligarchs would run are going to be:
1. Sarah Palin, Libertarian.
2. Jeb Bush, Republican.
3. Hillary Clinton, Democrat.
April 4, 2009 5:10 PM<<<<
i thought bush would be our last president. maybe it will be the obamanation. do any of you think that this process will continue and if you do, for how long?
Keith, ffs, you're starting to sound like David Koresh and Charles Manson.
Keep up the good work. haha
Anton Chiguhr
I'm 99.9% certain that we will be presented with another false choice, so this discussion is meaningless...
"With a significant third party (independent) challenge, who might even out-poll the now-dead GOP. That independent will be known as mainstream media or business, not necessarily politics. I'm picturing a white, male, right-of-center patriotic populist. Maybe Lou Dobbs. Maybe Glenn Beck. Maybe Joe Scarborough, or even Jesse Ventura. Or hell, maybe Ross Perot or Ron Paul or Michael Bloomberg"
---
Obama's opinion numbers will have to fall dramatically to lure a serious and funded third party candidate into the race - like to 55% or greater disapproval. In other words, it has to get to the point that people seriously blame him for things. So long as things, on the whole, don't get much worse in the next 3 1/2 years (a BIG question, no doubt), Obama's popularity will be strong enough to deter a third party challenge.
But, since you seem to think that things, on the whole, have taken a turn for the better, that would seem to rule out the possibility of a significant third party run.
I could see a third party bid arising from the split of the GOP
You could have the right wing religious nuts finishing off the hijacking of the party, if they went with a loon like Palin. Or are there any televangalists out there who could run?
In that case, then you'd have the low taxes, pro-business, limited government libertarian wing of the party basically leave, in the form of an independent bid that could later then become a new third party. I think Joe Scarborough is the perfect candidate for this bid, and new party.
So then you'd have three parties in America. And I think all three would be viable - at least at the local level. At the national level, I see the dems taking the presidency for quite some time, until the new party is established, or until they nominate a candidate of Obama's stature.
Scarborough could run in 2012, come in 2nd, and then beat Hillary in 2016.
There you go.
There's no way Obama will will win after enabling to biggest heist in history. Anybody but that thief.
"Sarah Palin, Libertarian"
WTF!!! Libertarians wil never go for this.
Keith,
I hear a strange high pitch noise here in CA. Can you check the back of your head for a leak. I think it has gotten a little too big and there is some pressure that must be released.
None of the above: we'll have a revolution before then.
Repukelickin' candidate for 2012: Gen. David Petraeus. His campaign plank will consist of promising to START a new war.
After all, every good Repug knows it was World War II that eneded the Great Depression, not anything that FDR did. Look at the raving paranoid anonymous commenters on your blog, Keith. They are lunatics, but they represent the qaeda (base) of the Rethuglican Party and compose 25% of the American voting populace.
They, and a lot of patriotic middle-of-the-roaders, can be sold on the idea that Petraeus represents noble American values. He will be spun as the man who "won" Iraq. Now, he'll say, what America needs to is be "strong" and to spread "freedom" throughout the world -- at the point of a UAV-launched missile.
With the shape the economy is likely to be in by then, working in a defence plant or wearing a camouflage unform will look pretty good. All hail Caesar Petraeus!
Romney is not even a real conservative. He has changed his views on abortion, gun control, school prayers, etc... completely. He held liberal positions and then he changed them completely.
For the life of me, I don't know why any Republican would want to vote for him. And worse yet, he gets away with it!
Rick Perry.
Biden will be too old for VP in 2012, so it will be an Obama/Hilary Clinton ticket. If they win, then you know who the uncontested front runner will be for the dems - Hilary Clinton, her last and final chance.
Palin will have several years to finesse her message, so don't count her out just yet.
I agree that we will have a strong 3rd party candidate, who, is anyones guess.
"I could see a third party bid arising from the split of the GOP"
---
That's clearly a possibilty, but only if the "sensible" wing of the party gets the nomination, so that the social conservatives are the ones mounting the outside challenge. A Joe Scarborough type would never have the resources or passion behind him to pull off a viable third party run.
Either way, a GOP split isn't what I have in mind when I think of a "significant" third party challenge.
SCHIFF !!!
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