It won't feel like it for quite some time, but it is.
0% interest rates and trillions and trillions and trillions and trillions in government cheese made it so.
It hath been foretold.
So the Great Recession is over. But how do we pay the tab?
(hint - printing press)
Posts
118 comments:
Keith, you're saying it is possible to print one's way to prosperity?
If that was true Zimbabwe would be the most prosperous nation on earth. While using the printing press to address one's problems might give short term relief but the long term consequences are dire. Unfortunately this seems to be the path the current administration has chosen.
Yes, I'm saying short term flooding the zone with money is going to pull the economy out of the tailspin
That said, an inflationary holocaust will be upon us soon, as well as a rapidly devaluing dollar
Out of the fying pan, into the fire.
Invest wisely.
since when do you get growth from funny money? what kind of economics are you reading?
We have the healthcare bubble, we have the education bubble, so many more bubbles.
Real Estate prices are still (on average) much higher than the point where they were in 2001, yet the economy is much, much worse. The real estate bubble has only begun. When they open up the floodgates by dumping all the foreclosed homes they are warehousing, the real fun begins.
Oh... and if China and the Arabs panic, and run away from the USD, we could have a rapid drop of 50% in the value of the USD.
Bold prediction, and perhaps in the short term it has a lot of merit, but there are more crap storms to come before we arrive at the "new-normal".
We will have short term growth (and long term trouble)
Econ 101
Now that the Great Recession is over, to avoid a longer term catastrophe, the following will have to happen
1) Drastic cuts to entitlements
2) Drastic increase in GDP
3) Drastic tax receipt increase
4) Default on our debt and destroy the dollar
In other words, we're kinda f*cked long term
But enjoy the short term party for the next few years. Should be a good one
And then your children will hate you.
Kill all Realtors?
"That said, an inflationary holocaust will be upon us soon, as well as a rapidly devaluing dollar"
But Keith, you can only have "inflationary holocaust" i.e. hyperinflation, if wages skyrocket right along with prices. Everyone that I know has had salaries frozen, benefits downsized or eliminated, mandatory furloughs, no pay raises in sight for a long, LONG time.
Simple law of socio-economics: If you can't afford it, you simply do without, or steal it!
Single sheet of toilet paper goes for 14 million, only if average wage earner is making 100+ billion a week. That’s not going to happen anytime soon.
Uncle Benny's plan to inflate his way out will only work that one big last time. Then the worthless dollar will buy NOTHING, regardless of price, inflated or not!
Everybody's noticing the price jumps in the stores. To me that means that I buy less, and ONLY what I need. Pretty soon that little economic fact will come hammering home to even the most dumbed down sheeple
Can't we just cut the entitlement payments, especially social security. I don't know about anyone here but I find it kind of disgusting that gen X/Y who had to borrow to go through college, will now have to fund the retirements of a generation who got theirs for free. I say they have already had their money back, in the form of tax cuts. Proof positive of this, is the fact that the "trust" fund is filled with government IOUs. I feel you should have a pretty damn good reason after 40 years, knowing it was coming, to have not saved enough for retirement for yourselves. Boomers get ready, the younger generation are finally gettin the levers of power, and they will have their revenge.
But Keith, you can only have "inflationary holocaust" i.e. hyperinflation, if wages skyrocket right along with prices. Everyone that I know has had salaries frozen, benefits downsized or eliminated, mandatory furloughs, no pay raises in sight for a long, LONG time.
Hyperinflation is not an extreme form of inflation, it is something different entirely. Namely, a total loss of confidence in the value of the paper money (which of courser has no value). Nothing has to happen to wages to stoke inflation, just look at the first half of this decade. There is plenty of money in the system, just that the velocity of this money is very low. As soon, as the economy starts to grow again, this money will come off the sidelines, and will flood the system.
Simple rule, you cannot print wealth, period. In the long run I bet we will all wish we had taken the pain of a real recession.
I have no children, Ill hate you in their place for a low, low cost of 19.95, in 3 easy payments. Thats right folks, for less than the price of a cup of coffee, you can be hated just like everyone else!!
will deflationary forces prove too strong for the inflationary pumping they have done, is the question I have, soon to be answered in the next year or so...
"The Great Recession is over."
But the Bush Depression is still growing. The tumour has been zapped with radiation. But the cancer remains. The end result is lots of death.
"Inflationary holocaust" means that lots of non-rich people are going to die. Poverty, no health care, misery leading to murder... That's the endgame. No avoiding it.
No_free_20_year_vacations, do you hate your parents, and your grandparents? You want to see them die of starvation and cold when their Social Security goes down? Is that the "revenge" your generation seeks? Maybe you think your folks are rich enough to ride it through. Maybe you just hate their wrinkly old friends.
Generational revenge means generational genocide. You OK with that? Not the kind of world I want to live in -- or die in.
Bukko - you helped me get my head around what's happening and what's to happen.
We got chemo. We'll now be in remission.
And then the cancer will come back. And this time, it might kill us.
But that's a problem for down the road. When, I'm not sure.
Unemployment is still rising (albeit slower), GDP is still shrinking, foreclosures are still rising, credit card defaults are really starting to kick in, federal and state deficit spending is unsustainable for even the short term, and yet you are calling the recession over. Just what is your measure of being in a recession?
I love your blog, but don't forget it's origins. As you mention, the cancer is still there (I picture it as orange for some reason).
When housing prices have corrected and bottomed, then we can start a recovery. Until then, it is just some other dead cat bounce or speculative short term bubble. Never forget that this was not part of some normal economic cycle.
Not even close Keith...The depression started 3 months ago and it has quite a ways to go yet...nice try however. Keep on guessing.
Keith, do do realize that what appears to be a slight drop in initial jobless claims is solely due to the US government birth death model being cranked up to 200k new jobs instead of the usual 100K?
And that we will have another home loan payment shock as big as the subprime one that set off the crisis?
And that half the families I talk to are making backup plans to live with family members?
GM and Chrysler going belly up will add several million more to the ranks of the jobless, and manufacturing jobs are NOT coming back until US wages are on a par with Chinese wages plus shipping costs.
They make as little as $50 a month for 280 hours of work (plus bare subsistence level room and board)!
Trillions of dollars pumped into a) banks and b) pork are not going to pull us out of this one. It's just going to trade a deflationary depression for a hyperinflationary depression.
>When, during the invasion of Iraq, the United States Government issued its famous deck of playing cards with the 52 arch villains of the Iraqi police state, Saddam Hussein’s face adorned the Ace of Spades. If the Obama Administration wanted to engage in a similar public relations campaign for the real estate crisis, the top card should be reserved for Alan Greenspan.
http://lewrockwell.com/schiff/schiff22.html?ref=patrick.net
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=97954#post97954
here is a better description...these guys called it all along.
I wouldn't say it is over when house prices are still falling.
All Obama and Bernanke care about is positive numbers. If the economy is growing, that's great. If the economy is growing at 4% GDP, and inflation is 5%, well we have 4% GDP, recession over. OK everybody, what's for lunch?
I heard some realtwhore yesterday say home prices in Summit NJ have only fallen by 12% since their peak. Then she tried to explain she's seeing .5% monthly gains lately. Must be all that Obama/Bernanke money. She doesn't care how we get it, she wants price appreciation.
Keith, the cancer is close to how I look at it. It's like sending food to Ethiopia in the mid 1980's. We saved the lives of a million Ethiopians did they use their time changing the carrying capacity of their land? Not for the better, no they did not. They still get charity food.
What happens now when we can no longer afford to send food? 1) the million we 'saved' die, plus 2) their 3 million in off spring, plus 3) the million extra that die competing over food. So we saved a million in 1985 so 5 million can die.
We play games to save ourselves in 2007-2010. Great. But when the unpreventable loss comes it's a hard rain that's gonna fall.
My thesis is that "The Great Crisis Is Over", NOT "The Great Recession is Over".
True, the second derivative is improving. (That is to say the acceleration of the crisis has gone nearly to zero). Which is of course, good. HOWEVER, that does NOT mean in this case that an upcycle is around the corner.
That's where I believe most people (and the MSM so far) will make a mistake. They are using the old cyclical model to assume a recover is near.
Wrong. It's wrong because that model no longer represents the USA economy. (We've never issued this magnitude of new debt before, and the economy has never been this global before).
Because of the USA debt issue (govt, personal, private business, etc) the vast bulk of the TRILLIONS of dollars of stimulus will go towards paying that LAST 8 years of debt down. It will NOT go towards real new economic development. Therefore even tho TRILLIONS will be spent now, no signficant new cyclical uptick will happen.
The cyclical uptick will be so extremely mild, families will not even notice it. It will feel like just economy flat lining. The V recovery or U recovery will (in 2 years) be discovered to be an L shaped recovery. And it will feature things like "Jobless Recovery", "Increased Offshoring" and "Outsourcing", etc.
I expect in 18 months or so, the real fun begins when the inflation storm begins.
Whatever you really need for the rest of your life, buy it now. 'Cuz the largest bout with inflation is nearly upon the USA. (By design).
"But the Bush Depression is still growing. The tumour has been zapped with radiation. But the cancer remains. The end result is lots of death."
The main aggressive tumour may have - for now - been stopped in its tracks, but at a terrible cost.
You see, the chemo and the nuking have caused all the surrounding flesh to go rotten.
Learn to grow vegetables, learn how to repair and maintain some sort of shelter. Learn how good it is just to survive. That's real. That's what all of gods critters do, thats all they need or expect to do.
What's NOT real is the last 80 or so years of gadget consumerism, that was an anomaly which will soon fade from memory.
Sorry permabears, you're not going to get your Depression.
You would have if Bernanke hadn't lowered to 0%, if the government hadn't given AIG a hundred billion to pay out to the banks at par, if the government hadn't bailed out the banks directly, if Obama hadn't blown a trillion or so on 'stimulus', and if the Fed hadn't pumped in another few trillion to boot.
No, if none of that had happened, we'd be in something BEYOND a great depression. There would have been blood in the streets. Most people would be out of work. Millions would be fighting for food. The ATM's would no longer have worked.
But you have to play the hand that's now dealt. We'd bought time with this $10 trillion plus madness. The numbers will improve from here (they won't be as bad as prior numbers). Eventually they'll turn positive. And then we'll have a pretty good recovery.
And then.........
(stay tuned)
No_free_20_year_vacations, do you hate your parents, and your grandparents? You want to see them die of starvation and cold when their Social Security goes down? Is that the "revenge" your generation seeks? Maybe you think your folks are rich enough to ride it through. Maybe you just hate their wrinkly old friends.
I don't hate them, I am just not going to pay for their retirement, not when I have to pay for mine also, and my college education. The truth is, the "trust" funds are empty, given to the now retiring generation in the form of tax-cuts since Reagan. So, they have had their entitlements already, as these tax cuts were paid for by raiding the trust fund and replacing it with IOUs from the government.
This generation had a choice, 30 years ago, they knew it was a Ponzi scheme, and did nothing. Worse, they cut spending on education, and shipped jobs overseas, all so they could continue on a piggish self-indulgent spending binge. Heck, they even bid up houses to outrageous levels as an alternative to really saving money.
All I am saying is, that I do not see why one generation should be obliged to pay for the 20+ years vacation that they have neither earned nor deserve. This would all be different had these people given a damn about their children. Guess what, now their children are not going to give a damn about them, they can go poor and hungry, just like we had to in college.
I think social-security should be
a) means-tested (this is after all, the least needy generation in history)
b) dependent on age, and your ability to work.
c) Abolished for future generations, and replaced with a 100% private system, current workers put their social-security in their own named accounts, instead of the government black-hole.
the biggest bubble in history yet unemployment looks to be no worse than in the 80s.....
Still skeptical it is over.
the slight drop in jobless claims is due to government hiring (mainly census jobs).
December 2008
Ding dong, the bill is here. No, it's not over, Keith baby. Boomers are broke. Crapped out at the tables of stocks and hard ways housing. Housing is still going down, and those housing jobs are not coming back. Boomers will now downsize, and so will the economy, until generation Y enters their prime earning years. Lets see: Boomers entering retirement, Housing Mania Over, War Time Economy ending. The great malise starting. Obama will look just like Jimmy Carter did two years into his Presidency. Obama is like Captain Smith with an ice warning in his hand but orders full speed ahead for the Titantic. Obama is spending money like I expected Al Sharpton to spend money if President.
BOs big wet kiss to the unions (putting unions before creditors) will send into depression 2.0
why would bond holder ever lend at reasonable terms again in the future if the terms of the bond will be modified by the government.
Keith,
How will the money that got printed get into the hands of the people? Gov't jobs? More census workers? Banks loaded with cash investing in start ups again? Like batteries and plug in hybrids?
Remember when the gov't prints money the people who get it last get f---ed the hardest. So all the people out of work or on the sidelines get creamed while the banks and gov't cronies who get it first are laughing all the way to the, ahem, bank.
-Mike
TAKE OUT THE HISTORIC GOVERNMENTAL ECONOMIC PLAYBOOK! Government repeatedly uses the same monetary manipulation to achieve its goal, POWER, CONTROL, and GROWTH. Follow the motive and consult history to see into the future.
We still have the interest rate bubble to come. Gold is in its last rally before the big dump to cash based investments ;( consult gold chart January 1980). Eurasia will dump dollars and gold for other currencies and run interest rates up to about 20% just like in the early 80's; (consult historic interest rate charts). Get your cash ready to buy 30 year treasuries at 14% and enjoy a $140.000 a year income per million invested while you practice your favorite pastime; (this actually happened before).
Only then will we see wages go up and the achievement of the new norm. Meanwhile labor is strong as the masses scurry to ANY job to support ordinary existence. They have lost their illusion of wealth and now covet the dream of consumption. Labor and production are born in the new age of necessity and desire.
It hath been foretold.
It's time to put down the crack pipe, Keith.
Agreed, no despression. For political stability a.k.a. passification of the sheeple, clearly no crashes are allowed. But a controlled economic decline over the next 20-30 years using inflation as the tool is in the cards. Nominal growth during up cycles may LOOK slightly positive. But in real dollars, compensated for true inflation rates, growth will be flat or negative. And futures recessions or downturns will be increasingly severe.
In other words, same as the last 30 years, only accelerated and manipulations will be more obvious.
Howevera all bets are off if there is an international crisis with the U.S. dollar or (U.S. debt) crisis.
Bukko, yes it is time for the boomers to pay their own damn way and I am OK with that. And we don't have to send the Poor Dears(tm) out to starve either. We do it this way:
1. Eliminate the contribution cap so the over 100K crowd pay the same 15.3% that the rest of us pay.
2. Means test SSA recipients.
Result: cut in entitlements and the boomers have to pay their way.
Is it perfect? No, that's "Soylent Green: it's made of Boomers!"
Let's get rid of those dirty entitlements that some people barely live on. You'll NEVER be poor or disabled!
How about the military and massive handouts to the banks?
Yeah, let's get rid of those nasty entitlements.
Exactly Keith. We had 2 choices.
1. McCain-Palin....a wall to wall culture war, continued war on science, blame the poor and cover for the elite, stock market down to 2000, panic in the streets, another great depression.
2. Obama....had to throw money down as a cushion, avoided the panic and depression, have to pay the huge bill for the next 15 years.
Option 2 was by far the best of the bad options.
The only thing we CAN do, is to "be positive while continuing to find for solutions."
We the people CAN get out of this long-term mess by "extreme creativity."
The only joker cards are the leaders of each nation. I KNOW that humans can SOLVE great problems, but like the last 8-years show, they can CREATE even bigger problems as well.
So there it is. Its "world leaders" that cause all these problems. Not Jesus, not God, nor fairy tales from the Bible, nor ancient prophecies.
The future is never cast is stone, however it's "molded" by our thoughts and actions of today. Right here, right now.
Therefore, "we" create our own future - even though "others" can control our future as well, depending upon the amount of "control" they have upon your life, job, situation, etc. We are all on different paths.
The bad news is that the Christians believe in "Armageddon" which is the end filler-story in the bible - which is not cast in stone.
So now this cult(get this) has the new "Armageddon Channel" pumping FEAR into hundreds of millions of sheeple thinking its a true fact! OMG! That channel should be SHUT DOWN by the Office of Homeland Security!
Seriously!
And there you go.
Choose Your Future:
A) WW III, hatred, fear, dooms day, desperation, torture, cluster bombs and massive soup lines.
OR
B) Peace, solutions, prosperity, security, happiness, enterprise, freedom and krispy kreme's.
Be part of the solution! What YOU can do:
Tell other GOP/Jesus freak war and fear mongers that World War III and/or Armageddon does not "need" to happen and they should see a doctor for their mental illness of greed, illegal war-profiteering, torture, fear, bombing raids and theft.
As evoled humans, we no longer need to follow "cycles of stupity, pain and self-destruction." Its simply a choice by our own government, corporate and world religious leaders, and we as citizens should not let them take the ship down without doing our best to keep it a float and moving forward toward a brighter future for all.
Stick a fork in it.A few years from now americans will be tapping home equity and starting the game over again.No one cares about the dollar.The chinese can make all our stuff cheap why we artifically inflate asset prices.the whole thing relies on confidence.The govt is trying to restore confidence.When people are confident they spend.Go buy a home so you can get free cheese!!!!!!!
Your right, but your wrong... The recession is over and the depression has been averted, but for months not years Keith. Later this year we will again begin to see it re-emerge and in 2010 it will be the beginning of the end. By 2012 we will have complete financial Armageddon, a meltdown that nothing can change, because the fundamentals of the financial system are flawed. But, we should all be relieved at this point, because if the crash caught you with your pants down, think of this as a second chance to get prepared.
I'm a firm believer in what Gerald Celente says, and he predicted this turn-around some while back. But, it will be short lived (months, not years) and we will sink even deeper by end of 2009.
Again take this opportunity to close loose ends, make some money, buy some ammo and other essentials, and get your head out of your ass. It's over; game over... I have personal friends who are even going so far as making plans to leave the country. I'm not so sure if that's a bad idea anymore.
I always agreed with you up until now. There is no way this is over. 19 million vacant homes on the market. Trillions in resets ahead of us in 2010 and 2011. No liquidity still available for main street. Banks are still holding 2/3 of foreclosures. Taxes will be increased at the corporate and individual level. I think that one factor you site does not say this is the end.
Germany devalued their money so much that it was worth more to burn it in fireplaces. After Germany returned to the gold standard, their currency stablized bringing them out of their depression...however they now had Hitler on their hands.
The banking industry would not have been able to securitize loans and sell to wall street if we were on the gold standard.
Don't confuse "over" with "party time"
The way back will be a long hard slog.
A recession is a period of declining GDP and rising unemployment.
GDP will (with year over year comps) turn positive - we'll find out about six months from now that the recession ended in May 2009.
However, unemployment will continue to rise, peaking at over 10%. But the monthly job loss numbers will start to come down. It'll be some time until we see positive job growth. And even when we do, the jobs won't be at the same level as they use to be. This could be yet another "jobless recovery" for the good ol' USA.
And that should hopefully lead to people LEAVING the US, looking for better prospects, either as employees or more likely as entrepreneurs.
Big world out there. Nobody says you have to stay.
I don't know about that: Our family is fairly typical: some great jobs, some on minimum wage: various branches:
1)a brother in law given early retirement, loss of 80 K/yr.he was air traffic controller. His son finish carpenter, worried.
2) a brother takes 40K paycut: food broker
3)My brother/sisinlaw raising 2 grandchildren, on one retirement income. His son laid off after 24 years, but has house paid off. Another son, hours cut 40 percent. Still paying child support. His ex and her husband losing house.
4)My daughter unemployed due to bad back. No insurance.Her boyfriend was mechanic who fixed rigs for 8 oil wells All closed.
He's on unemployment, still paying child support. Moved to old family house, paid for, in poor condition.
5)My daughter's ex's meat plant shutting down. He'll be unemployed in July. Town has laid off many, complete opposite of last year when anyone could get a job.People leaving.
6)my grandson working on oil rig, either 7 days a week or days off in clusters. Uneven. His wife stays with baby.Her parents are hanging on by a thread, in fact my grandson has had to buy them groceries.
7)I'm retired on small amount. Live with son and grandson. Income okay for now, but maintenance level.
It's unsteady, fragility throughout. Lots of family helping other family. Several I didn't even mention, working very sporadically. Our family is more old school in some ways: lots of cooking from scratch by all generations, canning, fishing, etc.
There is anxiety because if one or two more things go wrong, it will be more desperate in a heartbeat.
I've probably mentioned I currently live in Denver area, though was from Portland; Portland has had obscene housing prices, and more shared households [roommates] in numbers I have never seen in my lifetime [65], and now Oregon has the 2nd worse unemployment in the nation? The real estate ads are still glib and full of baloney. It's sickening to think of the immorality and corrupt
mindset behind that. It is a shameful thing, to be honest.
How can things be over? Some jobs will never be replaced. The 3 in the family with the most income are at an age where being hired is highly unlikely [55-60] let alone at former salaries.
If it looks like it's over, I think it's just a lull where nothing major is rocking the foundation at the moment. Just wait.
Grandma PKK
not so fast.
I seriously doubt that we will have a rebound in GDP growth. The housing/ATM growth model is dead--we will never see that again.
We will have a slow decline. Maybe -1.0% to -3.0% GDP for the next few years.
I wouldn't be surprised if the tri-state area (NY, NJ, and CT) and Washington DC have a resurgent of growth. That's where all the money is going.
Wow, Keith, now THAT's funny! Silly monkey, indeed. Quite ridiculous. Just like the suggestion of inflation showing up anytime soon.
You are comparing this to past economic downturns. This is not like any other meltdown we have seen. We are not going to pull out of this as we have in the past being the world’s economic leader. You still fail to see how in the Great Depression there were small intervals of growth, but the whole time period was still referred to as the Great Depression. We are not going back to the party we had, not even for a few years before massive inflation hits.
We are broke. We are broke. WE ARE BROKE. Hello earth to Keith! WTF don’t you get Keith? We have been broke for some time now. Then we financed our way to keep the party going. We are still financing more. Your idiot of a president has been spending like a idiot.
BTW! Because he was left with a huge economic mess on his plate does not justify his spending. Period. Nuff said folk fuck!
Liz Ann Sonders from Schwab said the same thing last week. I think it's too early with the foreclosures creeping back up. It's time to start raising interest rates again to curb inflation before it hits us like a freight train.
No Free 20 Year Vacations said:
"Boomers get ready, the younger generation are finally gettin the levers of power, and they will have their revenge."
I agree. Without sounding like someone who does not want to take care of mhy parents as they took care of me, I have been trying to tell my parents this.
They left it broke. They left the debt. They can take it with them. Everywhere I go, the baby boomers are rolling in money. Yet they are responsible for our current economic situation.
While I will not endorse people telling there baby boomer parents to live in the street, maybe Palm Srings does not need to open 10 more golf courses this year.
See, the way I see it, my childeren are not going to hate me for the debt, they need to hate grandma and grandpa.
Curious that the biggest single factor in how much we all owe, Medicare, is not even mentioned.
Unions & Social Security yes; healthcare costs, no.
One way to tell how big the problem is: the industry just offered to cut the bill by $2Trillion/10 years...
As an opening bid. If that's how much they(say they'll) cough up for openers, how much margin must exist?
"We got chemo. We'll now be in remission."
No Keith. This "chemo" is making the cancer grow rapidly. There is something wrong with batch of medicine.
Maybe not chemo at all. It is just high levels of morphine, making us feel better. That is what is wrong with you and your dumb Obama loving brain. You don't get it.
Over? Not yet. It really is different this time.
That graph doesn't say anything about hiring. The recession is still on if companies don't hire...and from the looks of it they aren't and won't be for the forseeable future. If you look closely at the graph you will see that there were only two recessions from the point of the 81 recession. This is because of the credit bubble, stock market, dotcom, and housing bubbles that manifested for the past twenty five years.
Those days are over. There's no credit to keep things going. People are changing their buying habits. China and India are rising they will take over, as more and more American jobs are shipped over seas.
There is still pain to come.
Just you wait and see.
Keith do you realize that everything you are saying lately goes totally against what made you correct about the housing bubble a few years back? Did you get hit by a car or something.
Hey Keith, I just applied for a job at a mental hopital. They said I needed a lot of experience with people who have cognitive disorders. They are reading the last year of posting with you on this blog to see if it will count. They think it may be enough. Further they are interested in what happened to you in the accident. You used to sound so smart, but now you don't make sense. They are even more interested in your love for unicorns. One of the hopital staff even said you were a fine specimen of a retard.
keith, monthly job losses always come down after jan/feb during a recession. Most companies do their firing at the end of the year and the beginning of year. in the middle of the year the job losses decline...that's the way it's always been in recessions...except this one, where the april job losses of around 600k were pretty much unprecedented i believe. if the govt. hadn't rigged the numbers with their "company birth/death model" it would have been even worse. for those of you who don't know what this is here is the explanation:
the govt. assumes that jobs are being created in the economy even though they can't actually count physically count those new jobs. they ASSUME that people are starting small businesses and hiring employees. they don't actually know who these businesses are -- they don't track them -- but they make a guess that this is happening. they have some idiotic equations to figure out a number and then they use this in calculating job losses. so, let's say companies shed 700K jobs but the birth/death model says 200k jobs were created, the net job loss would be 500k. and that's the number that gets published to the world. that's right, the 200k number was just made up by a mathematical equation and then used to soften the actual job loss number.
if may and june job losses exceed 500k, you know we are heading straight into financial hell this year and beyond.
Folks, arguing won't change what is.
The Great Recession is over (technically).
Housing has crashed 50%, the stock markets have been destroyed around the world, trillions and trillions and trillions and trillions have been lost (or stolen). We got our crash that we fully expected to get.
But things don't go down forever, and things don't go up forever. There are cycles, even when they're big ones.
You can stay permabears, but you must look at the data, and also what the government and fed are doing, and adjust your worldview. Challenge your beliefs.
The Great Recession is over.
Even if millions more will lose their jobs, and home prices will keep falling.
.
It's over?
Again!
.
I second anonymous of May 18, 2009 5:56 PM
Medicare/medicaid is 5 times the actuarial headache that social security is.
Social security can be saved - up the retirement age, tax all wages, means test - 2 of the 3 ought to do the trick.
Medicare cannot be fixed short of making a list of treatments in order of bang for the buck and making a cutoff line.
It's a lot more humane to leave social security and cut off medicare anyway.
Pass the bubbly!!!!!!
Sorry some of you lost your jobs.
Job = just over broke
Go out and start a business.Most of the wealthy in this country are business owners.
You can't proclaim that it is over until the banks stop losing money (house prices level out) and unemployment begins to decline.
We are in the middle of a depression. That's just the reality as far as I can see it.
No way that this over (although I wish that it were).
Angry Leprechaun said...
Keith do you realize that everything you are saying lately goes totally against what made you correct about the housing bubble a few years back? Did you get hit by a car or something.
---------------------------
He is just teasing us to keep the blog interesting.
My ass it's over.
The next wave of foreclosures is only just beginning. Go read Mr Mortgage for a detailed analysis. We're still yet to see the fallout from this insane "stimulus" and there is nothing to fuel an economic recovery. Green jobs and youth corps are not going to stimulate jack sh*t all this "stimulus" will do is further dampen economic activity.
California is still bankrupt. The jobs are not coming back any time soon. I don't know how this will all unfold but I know for certain that it is not over.
-Gonzo
Keith just wants to be remembered for calling the bottom first. He joins a long line of people who called the bottom prematurely.
Here are a few:
“BROKERS IN MEETING PREDICT RECOVERY; Partners in 35 Wire Houses at Conference Agree Selling Has Been Overdone.” October 25, 1929
BROKERS BELIEVE BOTTOM IS REACHED; Others Say a Sharp. Recovery Is in Order.
-October 30, 1929
RESERVE BANK AREAS FORECAST NEW YEAR
Despite the obvious slackening of the pace of business at the close of the year, leaders in banking and industry throughout the country maintain an optimistic attitude toward the prospects for 1930.
-January 1, 1930
“The worst is over without a doubt.”
James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
- June 1930
Thanks but no thanks,Keith. I will believe it when I see it.
the end of this great recession wil be the largest dead cat bounce in the history of man.
"The Great Recession is Over."
sweet...now we can get those interest rates up.
Top Stories
Stocks Jump on Renewed Optimism on Housing, Banks- AP
Upbeat news on housing and banking Monday gave investors a reason to return to the stock market. A better-than-expected profit report from Lowe's Cos. and positive comments from analysts about the nation's banks revived investors' confidence in an economic rebound. Stocks fell sharply last week on worries that a recovery might be further off than hoped. The drop interrupted a rally that still has the Standard & Poor's 500 index up 30.5 percent since early March.
Folks, the banks had their losses nationalized by the taxpayer (thank you Bernanke), and they're borrowing at 0% and lending out at 6% to 10%
The banks are swimming in it.
Get it now?
The fix is in.
Invest wisely.
Anonymous said...
the biggest bubble in history yet unemployment looks to be no worse than in the 80s.....
IF unemployment was still calculated using the same methodology as in the 80s, the true unemployment would be over 15%. Check out Shadow Statistics some time. Every administration since JFK has been manipulating the key economic indicators for decades now.
Comparing the govt unemployment figures now to govt unemployment figures in the 70s and 80s is absolutely meaningless.
U.S. home builder sentiment rises in May
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. homebuilder sentiment jumped to its highest level in eight months in May, a private survey showed on Monday, supporting views that the three-year housing slump might be close to an end.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 16 from 14 in April, in line with market expectations.
The NAHB attributed the second consecutive monthly increase in the gauge -- which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built, single family homes -- to "the best home buying conditions of a lifetime."
"This continued increase indicates that home builders feel we're at or near the bottom of the market and that positive signs lie ahead for builders and potential home buyers, provided that builder access to production credit significantly improves," said NAHB chief economist David Crowe.
Recession over?
Nope, just a lull. By fall things will start looking really bleak. RE prices still have a ways to fall in the more bubble-prone areas (e.g. CA).
Our financial system is a rotten house of cards and this time, the FED banksters can't inflate their way out of it.
Inflation has always been the drug of choice for our "junkie" system. But the U.S. junkie requires ever larger hits to "stay alive". This is an unsustainable paradigm that will result in the biggest financial disaster this country (and the world...) have ever seen.
All the desperate measures taken to date have simply slowed and postponed the inevitable...
Don't fight the Fed
Here Keith, read this. Stop your nonsense!
"The Worst Is Yet to Come": If You're Not Petrified, You're Not Paying Attention
Posted May 15, 2009 09:31am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking, Autos, Housing
Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, DDR, XLF, GM, RWR
The green shoots story took a bit of hit this week between data on April retail sales, weekly jobless claims and foreclosures. But the whole concept of the economy finding its footing was "preposterous" to begin with, says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates.
"We're in a complete mess and the consumer is smart enough to know it," says Davidowitz, whose firm does consulting for the retail industry. "If the consumer isn't petrified, he or she is a damn fool."
Davidowitz, who is nothing if not opinionated (and colorful), paints a very grim picture: "The worst is yet to come with consumers and banks," he says. "This country is going into a 10-year decline. Living standards will never be the same."
This outlook is based on the following main points:
With the unemployment rate rising into double digits - and that's not counting the millions of "underemployed" Americans - consumers are hitting the breaks, which is having a huge impact, given consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity.
Rising unemployment and the $8 trillion negative wealth effect of housing mean more Americans will default on not just mortgages but student loans and auto loans and credit card debt.
More consumer loan defaults will hit banks, which are also threatened by what Davidowitz calls a "depression" in commercial real estate, noting the recent bankruptcy of General Growth Properties and distressed sales by Developers Diversified and other REITs.
As for all the hullabaloo about the stress tests, he says they were a sham and part of a "con game to get private money to finance these institutions because [Treasury] can't get more money from Congress. It's the ‘greater fool' theory."
"We're now in Barack Obama's world where money goes into the most inefficient parts of the economy and we're bailing everyone out," says Daviowitz, who opposes bailouts for financials and automakers alike. "The bailout money is in the sewer and gone."
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/248398/%22The-Worst-Is-Yet?ref=patrick.net
Keith, you are correct to a point. Huge, unprecedented injections of cash (supposedly loans - LOL) have certainly stabilized the large banks, Freddie, Fannie, and AIG. A patient's body usually jumps when they jolt them with a defibrillator. That doesn't mean the heart is working or the patient is going to live. My question for Dr. Bernanke et al.: what is the next move? Shoot some adrenaline directly into a vein?
We have double speak out of the Obama administration "The debt level is unsustainable" / "Consumers need to spend not save", and largely irrational behavior on Wall Street. Nothing I see in my daily life would give me confidence that we've turned a corner and a sustained recovery is coming soon.
Folks, I was pretty much on my own calling the housing and economic collapse in 2005.
I was pretty much on my own calling Obama to win the presidency in 2006.
And you mocked me for calling green shoots in March.
I'm not on my own calling the Great Recession over, some are joining in, but I'm definitely early. Time will tell. Seems like crazy talk today.
If I'm wrong, mock me. If I'm right (again) give me credit.
And no matter what, challenge your beliefs. As I will too.
I see this wave of government cheese, and I adjust.
The only question I have is will this be a V, an L, a W, or maybe even a WL
May you live in interesting times.
As always, invest wisely.
Helicopter will have to print a lot more money to cure this little trillion dollar problem?
5.18.2009 11:55 am
Commercial real estate falls off the cliff
By Tim Logan
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
To get a sense of just how steeply the commercial real estate market has plunged in recent months, take a look at this data just published by real estate tracking service LoopNet. It counts sales volume (in millions) in four major commercial sectors, in the St. Louis market and nationwide, over a 12-month period.
12 mos. ending 3/09 12 mos. ending 3/08 Change
St. Louis
Retail $78 $1,759 -95.6%
Industrial $201 $549 -63.4%
Multifamily $108 $227 -52.4%
Office Investment $298 $981 -69.6%
United States
Retail $17,908 $62,880 -71.5%
Industrial $18,541 $54,689 -66.1%
Multifamily $29,674 $98,711 -69.9%
Office Investment $44,256 $155,086 -71.5%
Source: LoopNet
As you can see, everything is way down. Nationally, every sector is off by at least two-thirds. St. Louis retail volume has slowed to a crawl (though it’s worth noting that the third and fourth quarters of 2007, which factor in the year-ago data, were exceptionally busy. So that skews the more recent numbers downward.)
But nationally, retail is down 72 percent. People just aren’t selling shopping centers like they used to. St. Louis is faring a bit better than the national average in the other sectors, as befits our not-too-hot, not-too-cold reputation. And our office market was helped significantly by Scottrade’s $61 million Maryville Center purchase in March - it accounted for more than a fifth of sales volume for the year.
They say commercial real estate is a lagging indicator of the broader economy - among the last in to a recession and among the last to come out. As these numbers indicate, commercial is clearly in the recession now. How long before it comes out remains to be seen.
http://tinyurl.com/pcjuxz
No_free_20_year_vacations, do you hate your parents, and your grandparents? You want to see them die of starvation and cold when their Social Security goes down? Is that the "revenge" your generation seeks? They're not going to starve. They're just going to be living in government dormitories, sharing rooms with each other, rather than playing shuffleboard in Florida as they imagined.
Your alternative is for the impoverished X'ers and Y'ers to pay for their wealthy parents' retirements while saving nothing for their own -- and then promptly starving to death themselves.
Redistribution of wealth is bad enough. No need to redistribute suffering too.
I sense a lack of coherence here, Keith. Forget the interest rate and state guarantees for banks. Look at this:
1. Derivatives and counterparty risk. I don't trust this house of cards.
2. Unemployment rising and in the longer term China and India will compete strongly for resources.
3. Jihad intensifying. Iran goes nuclear and Pak goes Taleban. In Europe a reaction is brewing as what is seen as a barbarian invation. It might get very ugly. In a crisis Saudi, Egypt etc. might blow. Energy supplies uncertain. Ditto for shipping lines.
Stocks Surge to the Close on Renewed Optimism- AP
Upbeat news on housing and banking Monday gave investors a reason to return to the stock market. A better-than-expected profit report from Lowe's Cos. and positive comments from analysts about the nation's banks revived investors' confidence in an economic rebound. Stocks fell sharply last week on worries that a recovery might be further off than hoped. The drop interrupted a rally that still has the Standard & Poor's 500 index up 30.5 percent since early March.
I don't hate them, I am just not going to pay for their retirement, not when I have to pay for mine also, and my college education.
Here's the bitch about the social security dilema. Our generation shouldn't be paying for our parents generation. The boomers paid a shitload into SSI over there working years and should be entitled to them. The problem is our corrupt deficit spending monkeys in Washington have spent it all. My mother took her ssi early at 62 because she was afraid she may not get it. She paid in for 40 years! My father paid in for 30 years before passing away, so his money SHOULD still be there but obviously our shithead government officials treated ssi like an ATM machine for Washington. If you think we have problems now, just wait until 2030 when the ssi acounts run dry. I don't blame my parents. They worked hard their whole life and paid in. The money should have been there. Our government is a bunch of corrupt assholes. I don't know how we can say the great recession is over. It hasn't even begun to hit. Our generation will be the 1st to not have a better quality of life than their parents. I'm scared for my kids future.
That is fair Keith. Yes you were right in 2005 and you have been right since then except now!
At this point I and a lot of others are thanking you for your insight and you vision.
We will all see what happens but trust me the federal government is good at printing money and trying to convince everyone that all is ok. And that is all it is good at.
No more no less.
IMO, we are in a lull after the most massive money creation in the history of the planet and yes if you throw enough cash at something some will probably stick.
This is no long term solution and I for one am not buying it.
Of course we all want to get this mess over with and live happily ever after but we aren't there.
Just keep watching those long term interest rates climb and that will tell you how serious this mess is.
My crystal ball tells me we have 1 more week of funny money earnings by corrupt CEOs and then the stock market will begin to flap in the wind with nothing to hold it up.
Get ready for the great stock market collapse of 2009!
I agree, the immediate threat of depression has been stopped for now, but for how long? I have never seen a dead cat rally back up to a previous high. This current rally needs a meaningful correction to at least give the appearance that it is more than just the PPT and has a fundamental component to it. (which it does not) Stay away until the real bottom is in after the next leg down. US stocks and real estate are still massively overvalued for the most part. 50% off something that went up 400% really is not a great buy if its underlying fundamentals never changed in the first place.
If you got excited about this phony rally today, don't be. The volume was extremely low.
The crooks on Wall Street are trying to call the sheep to be fleeced, as usual.
I would get excited if the volume was incredibly high, but every time there's one of these fake rallies it's based on stupid things like, "Lowe's said that everything is rosy now", even though its sales were down 22% in the Q1.
Regarding the job market, you do realize that the private sector laid off 611,000 in April, while the smoothing aver. is already up to 637,000.
The 74,000 temporary jobs created by the Census, strategically by the WH may I say, were the reason of a dip in the labor figures.
I'm not buying anything the corrupt media, BO trolls, and the Madoffs running Wall Street are selling.
Thank you for letting me know that I should pop a case of Veuve Clicquot, Keith and Cramer.
Even though my wife and I had pay cuts of 25% each since Dec 08, and her company laid off half of personal within the last three months because there are no orders whatsoever.
Since you and the MSM told me that everything is rosy, we've decided to buy a 4,000 sq ft McMansion, get two iPhones with $400 monthly AT&T bill, lease a BMW X6 for me and a Benz for her, charge a $4,000 Macbook Pro on credit card, go for a shopping spree at Neiman Marcus, and take a two-week vacation in Paris (staying at the Ritz, of course). Hell, I think that we'll quit our jobs to imitate you and just live in London for "a life experience".
Thank you for helping us understand the economy and convince us that BO is really the messiah. Poof! Years of abuse, phony earnings, and lies all fixed in 5 months by printing money and having the gov run private businesses. What a concept!
Thank you, thank you, thank you. I feel so much better now.
Maybe I'm crazy but I'd believe the well researched analysis of Rogers, Schiff and Paul over the latest whim of Keith.
Jim Rogers on Lew Rockwell.
-Gonzo
Folks, I'm not talking about the casino (i.e. wall street).
I'm talking about the technical definition of a recession.
It's over.
You are dead wrong. Peter Schiff is right. The inflation inevitability even scares Obama now. When it arrives, the printing press stops. Like him you misplace some faith in the Federal Reserve and Congress. The printing press won't take us out of the tail spin if the world loses faith in the us dollar as reserve currency. Read the headlines again. The printing press is not synonymous with restoring consumer confidence, employer confidence, or loan officer confidence.
Big world out there. Nobody says you have to stay.Uh, yeah, because foreign countries are handing out visas to anybody who asks for them. :P
I did the whole "work abroad" thing, and I distinctly remember having to have the Home Office approve every salary increase and bonus not documented on my UK visa form.
I remember examining the Aussie forms for migration where they demand massive amounts of personal information, invasive medical tests, and endless background checks. Not to mention the $40K in lawyer's fees you need to pay.
Hell, Canada takes 2 years, on average, to even get around to approving a US citizen moving there.
Unless you're a married-20-something with a college degree and a spouse with a college degree... or very wealthy... the world is NOT waiting for you to "go out and find opportunity elsewhere." It's throwing BIG FRIGGIN' ROADBLOCKS right in your face.
People who bought into the "global economy" thing weren't too bright. There's global trade in goods -- but not labor. That is as protectionist as ever, and such huge barriers are erected that it's virtually impossible for even innovative entrepreneurs to go out "legally" and find work or opportunity.
If you're a small businessperson or just getting started out, you're screwed that way. Hell, US tax reporting laws have made it so that US citizens cannot even open a brokerage account in a foreign country -- most automatically reject US citizens because they don't want to bother with the IRS's reporting requirements.
In economics, a recession is a general slowdown in economic activity in a country over a sustained period of time, or a business cycle contraction.[1][2] During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes and business profits all fall during recessions.
Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies, such as increasing money supply, increasing government spending and decreasing taxation.
Yeah! Right! The recession is over! I agree. But the Depression is here, and it's here to stay a little longer!
Keith, I do agree you called a lot of what has happened first.
If you're right, I'll be the first to congradulate you. However, I think saying the recession is over is very premature.
This country needs comsumption to keep going. I don't see it every happening again. People cant even borrow a dime against their homes, coupling this with wage reductions, company downsizing, with the acceleration of health care costs - there is no way consumers can bounce back.
even if there were a great invention, the US will not return to manufacturing. China will produce any new inovation we design. How I see it- this country has grown its manufactuing base up till NAFTA was signed by Clinton, now everything will be outsourced...forever.
I want to know, how can people afford to keep their standard of living? Answer: They can't.
We have seen the end of prosperity.
OK, Keith, let's just say for the sake of argument that you're right and "technically" we are out of the recession. I think most sane individuals realize that the real sh*t has yet to hit the fan and we are a long way from being out of the woods.
If You're Not Petrified Of Obama, You're Not Paying Attention.
-Gonzo
Keith, what are you smoking man? Do you really believe that by government fiat/printing money it can make the business cycle irrelevant? If so, then the government can easily give everyone a McMansion, a Lexus, and all sorts of goodies.
Get a grip man. I think you are always hopeful because you supported President Obama.
.
Wake me when it's over.
.
Like with any Ponzi scheme, it will keep going as long as you don't run out of investors/suckers. If there are still enough investors willing to buy US treasuries "we" might be able to keep the gravy train rolling for a while longer.
However, one of our major investors, China, seems to have caught on and is buying commodities for excess Dollar. Another interesting development is the planned cram down about to hit investors of MBS (mortgage backed securities) as well as holders of GM/Chrysler bonds (the automotive bagholders). Anybody loaning out their money in such an environment of lawlessness and uncertainty must be a fool. Heaven help us if we run out of fools.
As Yogi Berra once said "It ain't over till its over." And this ain't over.
It just means that America will die a slower death.
Financial Times today:
“Currency swaps are not necessarily trade related,” the official said. “The funds can be drawn down for any use. What we are talking about now is Brazil paying for Chinese goods with reals and China paying for Brazilian goods with renminbi.”
Henrique Meirelles and Zhou Xiaochuan, governors of the two countries’ central banks, were expected to meet soon to discuss the matter, the official said.
Mr Zhou recently proposed replacing the US dollar as the world’s leading currency with a new international reserve currency, possibly in the form of special drawing rights (SDRs), a unit of account used by the International Monetary Fund.
In an essay posted on the People’s Bank of China’s website, Mr Zhou said the goal would be to create a reserve currency “that is disconnected from individual nations”.
Keith: "The Great Recession is over.
Even if millions more will lose their jobs,"
Eh?
BEIJING (AFP) - Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva arrived in Beijing on Monday with 240 business leaders for a visit aimed at boosting trade with China and promoting what he called a "new economic order."
He was due to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao and other leaders during the three-day visit, and promote oil contracts, sales of Embraer aircraft, meat exports and biofuel technology for cars, officials in Brazil said.
Lula and Hu, who were set to meet for dinner later Monday, could also touch on a proposal made by the Brazilian president to conduct bilateral trade through each nation's currency, cutting out the US dollar as an intermediary.
China -- an energy-hungry nation that is hugely interested in Brazil's natural resources -- in March became the Latin American nation's biggest trading partner, ahead of the United States.BTW, the US held the position as Brazil's biggest trading partner for 80 years. China beat them in April to become the number 1.
Meanwhile, BO was meeting the Israeli PM to bicker about Palestinians and Iran.
Unbelievable, the US loses a leading position as the biggest trading partner with a major developing country, and BO doesn't take a delegation of businessman there?
Nope, China is the one who calls Brazil for a meeting to celebrate their achievement as number 1 biggest trading partner. The US couldn't care less.
Meet the new power couple:
Brazil + China
Brazil...large, rich in natural resources, great climate, great agriculture, oil
China...large, cheap labor, lots of savings
The US once had all these things.
The Great Recession is Over and the Depression is waiting in the wings for its cue...one black swan song.
After 80 years as number one, the US in April lost its position to China as Brazil's biggest trading partner.
And here's The New York Times front page news:
Michelle Obama and Caroline Kennedy visited New York to promote the arts, at the American Ballet TheaterI kid you not.
Speaking of Social Security and resentment towards older people who might (rightfully or wrongfully) have more than you,
witchcraft on the European continent came about because old women, often single, were inheriting land. Wonder what will happen this time. I don't think we are actually male dominated today, but there might be some version...
The Devil in the Shape of a Woman: Witchcraft in Colonial New England (Paperback)
From Library Journal
Karlsen has written an intriguing social history of witchcraft in Puritan New England (1620-1725). She unearths detailed evidence which demonstrates that prosecuted and accused witches generally were older, married women who had violated the religious and/or economic Puritan social hierarchy. Beyond their childbearing years and sometimes the recipients of inheritances, these women threatened the male-dominated social order and drew the ire of middle-aged men who accused them of witchcraft. A well-written, provocative addition to the recent scholarship on New England witchcraft.David Szatmary, Univ. of Washington Extension, Seattle
Copyright 1987 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
I love it, ghetto shooting at major shopping center in Beverly Hills, at 3 PM. Let me guess, right next to Hard Rock? Keep up with the great work ultraliberals!
LA Times -- Rapper Dolla is shot, killed at Beverly Center
An Atlanta rapper was fatally shot at the Beverly Center on Monday afternoon, causing mall diners to dive for cover and sparking a police dragnet for suspects.
The shooting occurred around 3:10 p.m. in the parking structure of the popular Westside mall. Dolla, a rapper whose real name is Roderick Anthony Burton II, was shot in the head while he and another rapper, D.J. Shabbazz, were waiting in the valet area, according to Dolla's publicist, Sue Vannasing.
Do you think that this recession will behave like all of the other recessions? HA!
So "technically" the recession is over but in reality it's not? Awesome. I'm still with Mike Shedlock thinking going Japanese is the best we can hope for. We shall see.
Unintentional Comedy TheatreHeadline Act: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Monday...government's goal should be to minimize excessive risk-taking..."...people were paid to take huge amounts of short term risk,"..."...with OUR money.
Keith , you are right "Recession is Over" - i'm giving you credit for this. Good job dear :)
Only one small problem, though. You're a little bit earlier in calling this. Like 5 or 6 years ! Not a big deal, huh ?
But then again dec 21 - 2012 will be here faster than The-end-of-this-Great-Recession .. oh , well, for you is just a game of how to invest, isnt it ? :)
Damn, Keith, you're right again.
2005 Housing Bubble, check.
2009 Recession ends, check.
I'm still on pins and needles hoping my bank picks are, indeed, survivors.
Anton Chiguhr
Circle the wagons. Seriously.
Aren't Luxury Home Default rising at an alarm rate.
So why is this downturn over.
http://sf.therealdeal.com/articles
/luxury-home-defaults-
rise-nationwide-realtytrac
The most expensive homes in the United States are hitting foreclosure at a much higher rate than the national average.
Houses valued above $729,750, the jumbo mortgage limit in the priciest metropolitan area, entering the foreclosure process jumped 127 percent during the first 10 weeks of this year from the year-ago period, according to RealtyTrac.
Is the worst about to come.
Will Option ARM and ALT-A loans take out High End Homes.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin
/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/05/16
/MNKV17K2OV.DTL
More high-end properties sitting on the market
The approximately $950,000 "short sale" is a prominent example of something brokers don't like to talk about, at least not brokers who represent owners: High-end properties are increasingly coming under the sort of pressure once reserved for moderate homes.
In fact, as slowing price declines fuel hope that the real estate bottom is near, other signs suggest the worst is on its way for the region's upscale market.
"Folks, arguing won't change what is."
Yes arguing with Keith is the same as talking to a wall, and if your eading this it is a miracle because he is again too much of a chicken shit to post all my comments.
Is the Great Recession over, or is this just the eye of the storm
http://www.chron.com
/disp/story.mpl/headline
/biz/6410188.html
California is hardest hit by luxury-home foreclosures.
While sales for all homes in the state increased 2.5 percent last year from 2007, sales of homes valued at more than $1 million declined 43 percent to the lowest since 2003, MDA DataQuick reported.
The foreclosure process typically takes about a year.
That means jumbo-loan defaults, which are climbing at the fastest pace in at least 15 years, will increase over the next year, according to LPS Applied Analytics in Jacksonville, Fla.
Keefer,
You may be right, actually- everyone cut their production capacity pretty badly already. The more the GDP goes down the greater the forces are pushing it back up. And the free gov't cheese only adds to the upward force.
That said- what about the auto industry supply chain continuing to wind down in the next 2-3 months. What about growth in banking loans- those are still in stagnation.
You may be close on your call but you also may be a few months early.
The technical definition of a recession doesn't help all the people who aren't paying their mortgage but haven't been foreclosed on yet. If that happens there will be another drop in consumption.
Have you considered this?
-Mike
In the late 1980s and early 1990s American textile companies were disassembled and shipped to China.
In the next 3 years, watch the big 3 disassemble their factories and move it to China. China is the largest car market in the world and they hate anything Japanese.
Retail sales continue to go down. American retailers cannot sustain the number of retail outlets we have. More companies will have to go into bankruptcy to break these lease contracts.
I think we may break 700,000 in new unemployment claims within 6 months.
The govt lied about the start of the recession. If you recall, it was only after the election in november that the govt. said, officially, that we had been in a recession for almost a year...since dec. 2007.
The fact of the matter is, the technical definition of a recession is two quarters (six months) of negative GDP. So, the govt. should have declared a recession in May 2008, and not Nov. 2008.
My point here is that the govt., if it declares the recession is over, will just be lying. It works hand-in-hand with the private company that has become the one, small group of people that decides whether or not we are in recession. They will simply lie and tell us it's over.
Don't believe them. There is a lot more hurt coming. And I'm not talking about the stock market. I'm talking jobs and the restructuring (death) of American industry.
As I said before here, if we get another jobs loss report of 500k or greater for May and/or June, we are absolutely screwed.
Keith, this time it is different. In past bad recessions we did not have a global economy like we do today that would allow other countries to step in and take leadership. We did not have outsourcing like we do today. We did not have major non-western economies working with each other to replace the U.S.
Unfortunately, I think the best we can hope for is a Japan-style economy: no growth going forward.
Keith, do you realize just HOW short you are on details of why the recession is over?
From where I stand, it's pretty much just your gut feeling, your trust of some clearly corrupt federal officials, and an initial jobless number that's been gamed by census hirings and goosed birth death model numbers.
We, on the other hand, have dozens of reasons, and we have pretty clearly laid them out.
Do you really expect a person to believe another person based on such skimpy evidence - just because they were right in the past?
Come to think of it, you haven't said how old you are. Maybe you have Alzheimer's. Even if you are only 35, premature alzheimer's is on the rise, alarmingly so.
Keith, gut feeling doesn't fly here. List the reasons why you think that recession is over. We're waiting.
At least Mish backs his claims with solid facts and charts. Here all we get is gut feeling, Rahm E. talking points, and settled science.
What's on Olbermann? What's Bo, the WH dog, is doing today, Anderson Cooper?
The Great Recession is now and has always been the GRAND Depression. It lasts until 2012. That will be the bottom.
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