So, today, how much room do we have left to borrow? Can we go to 100% of GDP, like Singapore and Italy? If so, that's $3.9 trillion we could borrow (if someone is stupid enough to lend it to us) to go blow today. But... yes... that assumes that GDP won't drop, which it will. We could also seek to cut our debt simultaneously by restructuring what's on our books, or selling assets (like, say, Alaska, our our land and buildings. Hmmm.. wonder what we could sell Alaska to the Saudis for? Palin included...)
I personally think we need about $2 trillion credit line in 2009 alone to buy up the banks and dead houses, betting that the $2 trillion gets paid back plus profit. And then we'll need an extra $10 trillion or so over the next ten years on a massive infrastructure and green energy New Deal 2.0.
So if we're not going to go the way of Zimbabwe, we're gonna need to slash spending, or supercharge our GDP.
The US military will spend $651 billion next year, growing at an alarming rate. Can we get that number down to $300 billion? We spend $1.2 trillion on SS, medicaid and medicare, and that number is about to blow. Can we put the brakes on now? And we spend $500 billion on other stuff. Can we get a 20% across the board cut? I think all of those are pretty much non-starters.
Our total tax receipts in 2008 were $2.6 trillion, total expenditures supposedly $2.9 trillion. Both numbers will be off now, and not the good way. So can we shrink spending? Besides the military, pretty much everything else is stuck. Can we raise receipts? Maybe a few hundred billion at best.
So what to do? Again, we need to sell off assets (sale and lease back or outright sale). Sell our buildings. Sell our land. Sell our roads. Sell our government cars and trucks. Sell it all if we can. And we need to borrow like never before. And we need to bet that this massive infrastructure and energy investment will grow the economy ASAP as well as significantly in the future. If not, we go bankrupt or into hyperinflation.
Get popcorn folks. And maybe some gold. Because we've really stepped in it this time. We've maxed out the country credit card on drugs and hookers and don't have much to show. But now, it's time to bet the farm. We're desperate.
And if you're looking to relo, Estonia and Luxembourg are looking better every day.
| 126 |  Estonia | 3.40 | 2007 est. |
| 125 |  Equatorial Guinea | 3.70 | 2007 est. |
| 124 |  Oman | 3.80 | 2007 est. |
| 123 |  Chile | 4.10 | 2007 est. |
| 122 |  Libya | 4.70 | 2007 est. |
| 121 |  Botswana | 5.00 | 2007 est. |
| 120 |  Luxembourg | 5.40 | 2007 est. |
| 119 |  Wallis and Futuna | 5.60 | 2004 est. |
| 118 |  Russia | 5.90 | 2007 est. |
| 117 |  Azerbaijan | 6.40 | 2007 est. |
| 116 |  Hong Kong | 7.10 | 2007 est. |
| 115 |  Latvia | 7.40 | 2007 est. |
| 114 |  Kazakhstan | 7.70 | 2007 est. |
| 113 |  Kuwait | 7.80 | 2007 est. |
| 111 |  Qatar | 11.70 | 2007 est. |
| 112 |  Ukraine | 11.70 | 2007 est. |
| 110 |  Angola | 12.00 | 2007 est. |
| 109 |  Bulgaria | 12.70 | 2007 est. |
| 107 |  Lithuania | 14.50 | 2007 est. |
| 108 |  Nigeria | 14.50 | 2007 est. |
| 105 |  Australia | 15.40 | 2007 est. |
| 106 |  Cameroon | 15.40 | 2007 est. |
| 104 |  Gibraltar | 15.70 | 2005 est. |
| 103 |  Romania | 18.20 | 2007 est. |
| 102 |  China | 18.40 | 2007 est. |
| 101 |  Uzbekistan | 18.80 | 2007 est. |
| 100 |  Algeria | 19.00 | 2007 est. |
| 99 |  Venezuela | 19.30 | 2007 est. |
| 98 |  Tanzania | 19.70 | 2007 est. |
| 97 |  Uganda | 20.60 | 2007 est. |
| 96 |  New Zealand | 20.70 | 2007 est. |
| 95 |  Guatemala | 20.80 | 2007 est. |
| 94 |  Namibia | 21.80 | 2007 est. |
| 93 |  Mozambique | 22.20 | 2007 est. |
| 92 |  Senegal | 22.60 | 2007 est. |
| 91 |  Mexico | 22.80 | 2007 est. |
| 90 |  United Arab Emirates | 22.90 | 2007 est. |
| 88 |  Moldova | 23.30 | 2007 est. |
| 89 |  Saudi Arabia | 23.30 | 2007 est. |
| 86 |  Honduras | 24.10 | 2007 est. |
| 87 |  Slovenia | 24.10 | 2007 est. |
| 85 |  Ireland | 24.70 | 2007 est. |
| 84 |  Iran | 25.20 | 2007 est. |
| 83 |  Denmark | 26.00 | 2007 est. |
| 81 |  Czech Republic | 26.60 | 2007 est. |
| 82 |  Trinidad and Tobago | 26.60 | 2007 est. |
| 80 |  Paraguay | 27.10 | 2007 est. |
| 79 |  Iceland | 27.60 | 2007 est. |
| 78 |  Republic of China ("Taiwan") | 27.90 | 2007 est. |
| 77 |  Zambia | 28.00 | 2007 est. |
| 76 |  Peru | 29.20 | 2007 est. |
| 75 |  Bahrain | 29.40 | 2007 est. |
| 74 |  Macedonia | 30.80 | 2007 est. |
| 72 |  Finland | 31.30 | 2007 est. |
| 73 |  South Africa | 31.30 | 2007 est. |
| 71 |  South Korea | 33.40 | 2007 est. |
| 70 |  Ecuador | 33.60 | 2007 est. |
| 69 |  Yemen | 33.70 | 2007 est. |
| 68 |  Bosnia and Herzegovina | 34.00 | 2007 est. |
| 67 |  Indonesia | 34.10 | 2007 est. |
| 66 |  Spain | 35.20 | 2007 est. |
| 65 |  Slovakia | 35.90 | 2007 est. |
| 64 |  Cuba | 36.80 | 2007 est. |
| 63 |  Serbia | 37.00 | 2007 est. |
| 62 |  Bangladesh | 37.40 | 2007 est. |
| 61 |  Syria | 37.80 | 2007 est. |
| 59 |  El Salvador | 37.90 | 2007 est. |
| 60 |  Thailand | 37.90 | 2007 est. |
| 58 |  Montenegro | 38.00 | 2006 |
| 57 |  Turkey | 38.90 | 2007 est. |
| 56 |  Kenya | 40.50 | 2007 est. |
| 55 |  Dominican Republic | 40.60 | 2007 est. |
| 54 |  Brazil | 40.80 | Sep 2008. |
| 53 |  Sweden | 41.20 | 2007 est. [3] |
| 52 |  Malaysia | 41.60 | 2007 est. |
| 51 |  Papua New Guinea | 42.00 | 2007 est. |
| 50 |  Vietnam | 42.80 | 2007 est. |
| 49 |  United Kingdom | 43.00 | 2007 est. |
| 48 |  Poland | 43.10 | 2007 est. |
| 11 |  Croatia | 43.20 | 2007 |
| 47 |  Switzerland | 45.30 | 2007 est. |
| 46 |  Ethiopia | 45.60 | 2007 est. |
| 45 |  Netherlands | 46.20 | 2007 est. |
| 44 |  Aruba | 46.30 | 2005 |
| 42 |  Bolivia | 46.60 | 2007 est. |
| 43 |  Costa Rica | 46.60 | 2007 est. |
| 41 |  Ghana | 48.40 | 2007 est. |
| 40 |  Gabon | 50.00 | 2007 est. |
| 39 |  Malawi | 50.60 | 2007 est. |
| 38 |  Albania | 52.50 | 2007 est. |
| 36 |  Pakistan | 52.80 | 2007 est. |
| 37 |  Panama | 52.80 | 2007 est. |
| 35 |  Colombia | 53.50 | 2007 est. |
| 34 |  Tunisia | 55.40 | 2007 est. |
| 33 |  Philippines | 55.80 | 2007 est. |
| 32 |  India | 58.00 | 2007 est. |
| 31 |  Mauritius | 58.80 | 2007 est. |
| 30 |  Argentina | 59.00 | June 2007 est. |
| 29 |  Austria | 59.30 | 2007 est. |
| 28 |  Cyprus | 59.60 | 2007 est. |
| 27 |  United States | 60.80 | 2007 est. |
| 26 |  Nicaragua | 63.00 | 2007 est. |
| 25 |  Germany | 63.10 | 2007 est. |
| 24 |  Portugal | 63.60 | 2007 est. |
| 23 | France | 64.00 | 2007 est. |
| 22 |  Canada | 65.00 | 2007 est |
| 20 |  Hungary | 67.00 | 2007 est. |
| 21 |  Uruguay | 67.00 | 2007 est. |
| 19 |  Morocco | 72.40 | 2007 est. |
| 18 |  Jordan | 72.70 | 2007 est. |
| 17 |  Norway | 75.10 | 2007 est. |
| 16 |  Israel | 80.60 | 2007 est. |
| 15 |  Cote d'Ivoire | 81.10 | 2007 est. |
| 14 |  Bhutan | 81.40 | 2004 |
| 13 |  Sri Lanka | 83.90 | 2007 est. |
| 12 |  Belgium | 84.90 | 2007 est. |
| 10 |  Greece | 89.70 | 2007 est. |
| 9 |  Sudan | 98.90 | 2007 est. |
| 8 |  Singapore | 101.20 | 2007 est. |
| 7 |  Italy | 104.00 | 2007 |
| 6 |  Egypt | 105.80 | 2007 est. |
| 5 |  Jamaica | 127.20 | 2007 est. |
| 4 |  Seychelles | 144.30 | 2007 est. |
| 3 |  Lebanon | 186.60 | 2007 est. |
| 2 |  Japan | 195.50 | 2008 [2] |
| 1 |  Zimbabwe | 23640.66 | 2008 [1] |
Posts
24 comments:
What stocks are you looking at for the infrastructure and alternative energy play?
As Peter Schiff points out in Crash Proof it's actually much worse than that because 70% of that GDP is the service industry which we see is rapidly collapsing and the very nature of the GDP calculation is very deceptive and doesn't tell the whole truth.
On top of that you have the unfunded liabilities of around $50 billion.
We're broke, Kweefer. So no Great Leap Forward to Mars for you!
Bwahahaha!!
We'd be closer to #1 if the evil Federal Reserve wasn't using inflation to reduce our massive deficit.
So what to do? Again, we need to sell off assets (sale and lease back or outright sale). Sell our buildings. Sell our land. Sell our roads. Sell our government cars and trucks. Sell it all if we can. And we need to borrow like never before. And we need to bet that this massive infrastructure and energy investment will grow the economy ASAP as well as significantly in the future. If not, we go bankrupt or into hyperinflation.
It's very simple Keith. We drastically shrink the government back to it's constitutional limits, abolish the income tax and abolish the ungodly regulations on business in America.
Then you will see the economy grow like crazy.
Your idea of borrowing or inflating trillions of dollars is just the same old bunko inflationist Keynesianism that Bernanke promotes.
Have you not been paying attention? Sometimes I wonder if you have been replaced by some kind of lab grown clone or you've been brainwashed by the CIA's MK-Ultra program because your views have made a complete 180 recently.
Are you taking your meds?
Fellow Sooters and ashers,
hmmm; are we now 'sashers'?
anyway,the 7th day is a day of rest.
That is Saturday.
enjoy your weekend and have a
good Shabbos
if we work hard we can catch up to japan?
can we do? yes we can!
I.O.U.S.A
But it's OK because:
O-B-A-M-A will save us!!!
The answer is to impose import tariffs on goods and services. It would provide much needed revenue without raising taxes, and cause a return to rebuilding our manufacturing industry and putting people back to work in this country. By increasing the price of imports it would create a bigger demand for domestic goods and production. It would eliminate our trade deficit and provide much needed good paying jobs to Americans! It worked for decades, it's time to put it back to work.
Wow your hero had his first big press talk and really sounded presidential making fun of Nancy Reagan but went over big with all the other losers he has attached himself to so I feel much more confident knowing now he will be a 1 term president and seems he was backing off tax increase just a little but will shall see.
I would think without changing anything at all we'll go over 100% once consumer spending on the credit card craters, and hence so does three quarters of GDP.
I was a bit surprised that Japan had a debt of twice their GDP. I thought they were a nation of savers or something. What's the story there?
back to my idea of a holding country.
Perhaps once the nonperforming assests had been transferred to the holding country we could then take it public? or maybe the holding country could buy some debt that we issue?
Keith, this list will be shaken up completely by the end of this year as the oil producing countries with a low % of GDP are going to take it on the chin thanks to the oil price drop. I think you have the right idea with this post, but you should wait till the 2008 numbers come out.
Why is Japan that high? Because they had to bail out their banks after their massive bubble.
I think Japan gives us a view of what we're facing now. And I see us vaulting up this list quickly.
You're about to see Shock and Awe when it comes to borrowing. That $800 billion package was the warm-up act. And look how quickly we got are heads around a staggering number like that.
Some of the borrowings will be used to buy stuff up, and could eventually be paid back with a profit.
Other of the borrowings will be for a New Deal infrastructure boom, that has a ROI as well.
And then the rest of the borrowings will be just pissed away, on things like foreign wars and the bureaucracy.
I see this number in our near future:
$20 trillion.
Shock and Awe.
And once you add in unfunded liabilities, that $20 trillion is chump change.
Shock and Awe.
Uh, keith, you should know better than this. The real debt is much higher if you include the unfunded liabilities of social security and medicare, which add up to nearly 100 trillion.
Uh, anon, maybe you should go back and read the post
Heh. Iceland is #79 as of 2007. I reckon they are just a wee bit higher at the end of 2008, don't ya think?
-Mike
Why don't I see the country of Africa on this list? - S. Palin
Kieth,
Yeah, I get what you're saying about Japan. It's amazing that what happened there so long ago had such a lasting effect. I have to wonder how many years our crisis will steal from our future.
Here's where I am perplexed. Peter Schiff keeps saying to get out of the US dollar and into the Yen. Based on the debt levels of Japan, I'm not following his logic. Can anyone clarify this? I agree the dollar is doomed, but so is the Yen???
keith said...
Why is Japan that high? Because they had to bail out their banks after their massive bubble.
Yup, and their people had the money to bail out the banks. They are the biggest "savers" in the world. Who will donate their granite countertops to the federal govt? We don't have a pot to piss in collectively as a nation, they are just going to tax us and our children and their children to pay for this bailout.
Sorry, there is no way around this. We are flat ass broke. Our govt is broke, the people are broke and we are all in denial. Hey let's bail out GM and make millions of more cars that nobody has the money to buy. Great idea that one.
I say we pay people to cut up their credit cards and live within their means. You will get a direct tax cut for reducing your outstanding balances every year.
15 Cote d'Ivoire 81.10 2007 est.
14 Bhutan 81.40 2004
Who and where are these countries?
Cuba looks positively frugal.
Using current stats, our public debt is 10.5/14 or 75%. The deficit for the next fiscal year is currently projected at "$1T or more". Given the bailout talk going on, a conservative assumption is $1.5T. And how much will the GDP fall? We are looking at a 85-90% debt ratio for next year. We might even make the top ten in next year's list!
I'd also guess that deficit spending will continue at an elevated level for at least another fiscal year beyond this one. We will likely exceed 100%. What will that do to the interest rate the Treasury pays, as an ever greater percentage of our budget goes to pay interest on the debt? Once the death spiral starts, it's mighty hard to get out of.
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