January 15, 2009
Apple, with $25 billion in cash and addictive products, has seen its share price cut in half, as Steve Jobs gets sick. Hmmm
There are some things when you see them that don't make sense, because humans are funny and do funny things.
The housing bubble didn't make sense.
Oil at $140 didn't make sense.
Fannie, Freddie, Indymac, Countrywide and WaMu having any value didn't make sense.
Bonds yielding 0% don't make sense.
George Bush as president didn't make sense.
Apple stock tumbling 50% doesn't make sense.
Yet that's what happened, mainly because people and crowds are fools.
But of course, eventually things start making sense again. Housing, toxic mortgage companies, oil and Bush all crashed. Bonds will eventually pay a yield.
And Apple stock will do just fine. For 2012. Until then? Craziness, gut-wrenching falls, a new CEO, a consumer depression, huge rallies, and who knows. If you can't stand the heat, when it comes to AAPL and all stocks and investments, then get out of the kitchen.
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24 comments:
Apple will be just fine, every unemployed workers will rush out and spend their unemployment money on tech gadgets. That's a no-brainer, dream on Keith.
Once people have purchased all the apple products, there's not really much more they need to buy and as a result, apple will stop selling as many products.
There are no really new devices coming out that will get people to buy more apple hardware in droves. We've got music, movies, photos, and applications all on our desktops, laptops, hand-helds and sometimes even on our refrigerators and home network stations.
Not much more time for people to spend using these things. The sales will go down as people return to doing things with their lives instead of sitting in front of flickering electronic devices.
That is intil apple or some other company learns how to record "experiences" i.e. you record your life experience which can be played back in the brain of another person.
Like a a walkman or iPod on steroids.
Then people will again come out in droves to have one (and the porn industry will create the experiences for these devices), This is where the gaming industry is headed but they are more following the using your mind to control the action philosophy whereas I am referring to recording an "experience" which a person can then just playback and enjoy.
Your own personal iSlut, or iMegalomaniac etc. iSaint, iPilot etc.
Most people will jack into the iSex offerings and sit at home in an infinite orgasmic loop while the world burns.
Oh yeah, and you're invested in AAPL for the long run, right? So let's see the numbers that don't lie:
30% loss needs 43% gain to break even
40% loss needs 67% gain to break even
50% loss needs 100% gain to break even
60% loss needs 150% gain to break even
And Roubini just said on CNBC that we have another 25% nosedive coming. How long do you think that it's going to take for AAPL to break even? Good luck!
Curious to know how much aapl you bought. No need to be specific, but was it four-digits? Five? And are you buying more on the way down?
There must be more than one person (Jobs) responsible for AAPL's success, but it will be interesting to see what happens without him.
Microsoft looks bumbling and evil when compared to Apple.
Wake me up in 2012.
AAPL is about 2% of my portfolio. But now that Steve Jobs' death will be priced in later today, might have to move that up a bit.
Sorry, RBC Capital just downgraded AAPL to sell, with value at 70.
bwahahaha
Wake me up in 2012.
Are you actually telling us that AAPL will gain 100% in 3 years just for you to break even? And not counting this deep recession that will last about 3 years? Got it.
Apple is doomed. Who is their target market? I am a millionaire and I have my doubts about buying a $200 iphone that costs $90 a month. Laptops at $1k ? And I love gadets as well. Unless they bring out a $99 mini iphone forget it.
They're in for a few rough years, like everybody else, but Jobs has run Apple brilliantly. (Still one of the greatest turnarounds in history. Maybe the greatest.) Sitting on a shitload of cash, with sales still doing pretty well, all things considered.
Snap out of it Keith! Apple will not be "fine".
Jobs has the worse kind of cancer there is, and he is trying to protect the stock price from plummeting.
In reality, Jobs has very limited time left on this earth, and Apple without Jobs will be nothing. Why else would he be saying is condition is only about protein?
This stock price will be going back to the 1980's and $12 a share.
Apple is doing fine. Seems like its much more diversified than other computer manufacturers. Though, the real issue here is what is left of the consumer -- not much is left.
It was much worse in 97 being a mac programmer. Much worse.
AAPL is about 2% of my portfolio. But now that Steve Jobs' death will be priced in later today, might have to move that up a bit.
-------------------------------
is that 2% down from 4% due to the share price drop ;)
Keith,
Just admit, you should have sold apple when you had the chance!
This post is just to make yourself feel better imo.
I predict that aapl market share in computers has peaked. the future will be defined by the cost of a widget. PC can be manufactured for less because of the volumes.
without jobs in the picture aapl will attempt to start a clone mac market and will fail miserably. aapl is heading back to the aapl of the 90s.
BTW,
Was reading a great article in Newsweek and the new stock pick will be PALM (or whatever the hell its trading under now).
The guy from apple, Jaffe, just designed something called the PALM PRE which is like the iphone but much better.
Sell while you can Keith, and get into the new hot thing. Palm Pre.
Keefer,
You made a lot of noise about AAPL (MOAB MOAB post for example) for it to be 2% of your portfolio... much ado about nothing, shall we say?
good luck- without the next big gadget in the pipeline AAPL stock will suffer bigtime. the P/E of 15 today will be a lagging P/E, expect forward P/E to be worse by a factor of 2 to 3.
Just my $.02
-Mike
So what it's sitting on a $hitload of cash, if the company's visionary won't be there anymore. Let me remind you that Jobs was the guy who approved and guided EVERY aspect of that company. I told you all to get out of AAPL long time ago, but as usual you didn't listen and you kept buying.
I agree that Apple will be fine. It might have to scale back, but it should be fine. I've always thought their computers were bargains because they last forever. An Apple laptop usually lasts me 6-7 years. Other brands, not so much.
That said, however, I'm uninterested in stocks (such as AAPL) that pay no dividend or an insignificant one. A stock that doesn't pay a dividend can only make money through capital appreciation. It doesn't make sense to me that an investment that pays nothing would appreciate. It won't pay anyone anything.
I prefer day trading and investment in local businesses that are more willing to return a reasonable profit for my capital. Long term stock investment doesn't make sense to me, so I avoid it.
I see the Apple campus out my window (no pun) as I write this.
Ask yourself, Why support Apple?
Really, what do they make?
Be Honest.
I thought so.
Apple/Jobs = Dead Soon.
Apple lost their touch when they eliminated the color options of the iMac. Those were increadibly nice looking computers, and they worked better than most PCs back in their time.
But these days, they have this awful chicklet keyboard and come in this drab grey color. Plus, they look the same as any other laptop. I'd be better off buying a good, used IBM server.
Dan (bottom right) is a total jackass. Hope he has a heart attack soon and leaves the world a better place for his absence.
Apple will be fine in the long run but the "dip" over the next couple years will impact EVERYONE.
Are you seriously still pumping Apple? You're right about one thing: 50% haircut for Apple doesn't make sense...should be about 75%. Unless they start making canned food or ammunition soon.
Not pumping apple - mentioned in a post and then daytraders give daily updates
If you don't have a long-term horizon, you have no business in the market - it's a casino
Damn,
I was right about PALM, GOD DAMN SON!
5.50 a share when I made the post. 7.91 a Share on Fridays close.
Thats like a 40% Return in 2 days.
I SAY GOD DAMN KEITH, GOD DAYUM!
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