All of them.
Yes, ALL of them.
All over the world.
They're completely and totally insolvent already, they know it, governments know it, and that's before the trillions and trillions more in debt are written off. Houses, cars, student loans, commercial real estate, all of it. It all needs to be written down and written off, and the losses will be in the trillions. Trillions and trillions and trillions.
So the taxpayers will own all the banks, and they'll take the losses.
And then, slowly, we'll start again.
It hath been foretold.
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27 comments:
I told you all that a huge nosedive was coming during inalguration day. I hope you listened to me. Oh, BTW, where's that idiot who was buying with both fists? bwahahaha
How's that AAPL stock doing for you? bwahahahaha
Yeah, the market tanked right after Obama won the nomination too - down 10% I think in 2 days
Should be an interesting 100 days.
The moves will be huge. Look at SKF the past few days. Wow. And look at the banks trading as if they're all insolvent. Oh, whoops, as they are.
Apple reports earnings Thursday. Should be a good indicator.
Meanwhile, the dollar is rocketing as other currencies collapse.
It's unreal out there.
" keith said...
Yeah, the market tanked right after Obama won the nomination too - down 10% I think in 2 days
Should be an interesting 100 days.
Apple reports earnings Thursday. Should be a good indicator."
Apple, Indicator of What?
Ponzinomoics? Not even a Real company.
Get with the program. Are you On the bus or OFF the bus?
I'm watching the bus careening down the road, with popcorn
If the government does something drastic, the shorts get killed, the market rallies
If the government does nothing, Dow 5,000 and a massive Depression.
Get popcorn.
Cut with the popcorn crap! Nobody's going to get to view this from the moon!
BTW, not all the banks are insolvent. Just 80% of them, with 97% of the "assets".
So is this inflationary or deflationary?
Anyone... Anyone... Bueller... Bueller...
That reminds me, Ben Stein is a genius.
Royal Bank of Scotland will probably post a 42 billion dollar loss for 2008. Another bank gone sour.
There's only one small problem with the nationalization scenario.
The $600+ trillion in derivatives positions.
With over $50 trillion of that number being credit default swaps--which are "zero sum" instruments, whereby one party owes the other the entire notional amount.
Also, to-date the governments and central banks of the world have already pumped/monetized/nationalized approximately twenty-trillion dollars of dead, toxic assets.
Yet, the financial system continues to collapse due to the massive overhang of debt and derivatives still crushing the banks and other gamblers.
So, at this point there are only two choices:
1. The whole world goes "Weimar/Zimbabwe" as the central banks and governments try to absorb/guarantee all the tens of trillions of dollars of outstanding (and defaulted) debt and derivatives positions.
Or:
2. They liquidate it all, causing "Great Depression II" to make "Great Depression I" look like minor hiccup in the annals of economic history.
The situation is just that dire.
.
It feels like the next 30 days are the endgame.
The banks will fail. The market will crash. People will lose everything. Famous people will commit suicide.
And then, the slow road back.
Sorry, don't see it helping any. Besides, how they gonna pay for it? Oh, thats right, rubber checks or the printing press. Still not going to help, this babies coming down! The problem's still there...
And where you picking up this "endgame" vibe? Most people think Obama is going to turn this around and we are going to recover right away. Just a short little "bump in the road". The desperation is still a ways off. This is going to be one big shitstorm! But hey, theres alot of empty houses out there if you ever need a place to "squat".
I said it another post, but I think the markets crashed today just because it was the ONE DAY ALL OF THE ATTENTION WASN'T ON THEM.
They will probably figure out some lame reason to rally tomorrow.
It's all fantasy anyway.
But I am in all cash, will I survive all of this carnage? Will my family eat 60 days from now?
Anyone anyone Bueller, Bueller!!!
I still expect Britain to pull an Iceland this year. Not to mention a bunch of minor players (Lithuania, Hungry, Spain, Netherlands, Ireland, etc.) that will go under. The Euro might blow up along with the British pound.
Switzerland which is entirely based on banking and arrogance could blow up in grand fashion.
Got Gold?
I just bought 100k shares of citi.since home flipping is toast I am a daytrader now.I have 10 million to play with thanks to all those condos and homes i flipped.
Hope you get paid in dollars, Keith. . .you will live like a king in EnglandLand(tm) (a division of the Disney Co.). . .let's see - no more North Sea oil, no Financial Center in "The City" and no industry. . .just a theme park - Nice Royal Family, however!
Mark - I'm thinking gold is the only thing I should accept going forward
I don't trust dollars, but I REALLY don't trust sterling.
And next up to fail?
Euros.
SKF to $200 was fucking unreal, it's a feeding frenzy out there.
Bargain stocks everywhere if you can hold for a year. Even the banks will be profitable after getting tax refunds from last 5 years.
nationalizing the banks will only delay reality. it won't solve anything.
Gold is good, but silver is better ... unless you anticipate having to relocate in a hurry.
If the government does nothing, Dow 5,000 and a massive Depression.
-----------------------------
we are already in a depression. i think the historians will look back on these times and say that the depression started Dec 2008.
Keith, you are a little late. Mish has been calling the banks insolvent for over a year at least. I have made a good chunk of change buying puts on citi, bofa, countrywide, indymac.
oh, by the way, I bought puts on apple today.
apple will be at 20 by july.
The banks will fail. The market will crash. People will lose everything. Famous people will commit suicide.
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Keith, where the F have you been? there have been billionaires stepping out in front of trains in germany. one guy blew his brains out in NY. another jumped from a plane to fake his death and then when caught tried to slash his wrists. another investment type kiiled himself and family in LA over the summer.
with the number of finance related suicides I think we must be in a depression.
I don't trust dollars, but I REALLY don't trust sterling.
And next up to fail?
Euros.
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man keith, you really have been out of touch, haven't you? taking time off between blogs? the euro has been falling for what, 6 months now?
You aren't trying to pull a Jim Cramer and get in front of trends that are already occurring and then claim you predicted them, are you?
Bargain stocks everywhere if you can hold for a year. Even the banks will be profitable after getting tax refunds from last 5 years.
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buzz. wrong sparky. I will take the other side of that bet. banks will be nationalized that the share holders will get wiped out. the only thing I would do with banks right now is to short them (if there is any juice left in those lemons) or do bear call spreads (once again, squeezing the last juice out of the bank lemons).
I said WaMu, Countrywide, Indymac, First Fed would fail. I said the banks would fail. I said Fannie and Freddie would fail.
Since 2005.
And so they shall.
Keith,
You were short on the dollar all along- when you were talking about
'cash is king'- you qualified that by saying cash is not US Dollars but included Euros & Pounds. That was a bad call. Own up to it.
You have a great track record on predictions, quite uncanny actually. But no one is 100%. So celebrate your good calls and own up to your bad calls.
My own bad call was getting into a few developing market growth companies last year and I'm 40% down on that at the moment.
Getting out of a large Sterling exposure and into Singapore dollars as of July last year was a fucking brilliant call in hindsight.
-Mike
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