These numbers are sick.
Nah, there was no housing bubble.
10% is in the bag.
(hat-tip mish for the chart)
February 15, 2009
Here's the California Housing Crash, for the whole world to see. Leslie Appleton-Young, Tom Adkins and Connie De Groot still have jobs how?
These numbers are sick.
Nah, there was no housing bubble.
10% is in the bag.
(hat-tip mish for the chart)
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25 comments:
Great question on where the riots will break out. There's a pool on the very question at CBOT, and since so many people are pegging California we had to add a time frame.
Personally, I'm on the hook for Memorial Day, but I feel I'm too far out.
And like the other voters, I think it's a tie between Miami & Detroit for 2nd to go up in flames.
All those "happy talk" realwhores should be called out, made to quit their jobs, and shamed for the rest of their lives. They lied to make their commissions and millions today are in trouble because of their "great advice".
But sadly, all the top banksters, RE fraudsters, and corrupt execs who are at the root of this mess are still multi-millionaires and NOBODY is being held accountable for anything.
We are all screwed so let's sing the national anthem.....Oh beautiful for spacious minds and ever-lasting greed.......
Its unfortunate, but the MLS cartel, who in my opinion are the ones Really responsible for the housing bubble, are still grasping on to the free 6% with their fingernails.
When the smoke clears you’ll all understand this was actually what caused the irrational housing bubble; not the Fed, or the lenders.
It was the mature and sophisticated marketing by the middle-man (the likes of the NAR) that eliminated natural competition and price negotiations,
this eventually skewed the real value of the Collateral banks and mortgage companies were lending against, after seeing people willing to pay insane amounts for properties because the trained 6%er would only negotiate the price up, lenders too believed that it makes sense to take a risk on a questionable borrower because the value of the collateral.
I have been a successful real-estate investor for a very long time, I have watched this bubble form from the beginning, and it amazes me that people today still think that the bubble had to do with low interest rates, 30 year rates only dropped from approx. 7% to the lowest approx. 5% (higher then today).
The bubble was clearly caused by middleman who inflated the price of the collateral.
I’ve also been an HPer since almost the beginning, and I still feel like throwing up every time Keefer goes off on people like Greenspan, because if you understand that most people who bought during the peak did not even lock in interest rates, everyone knew that rates would be going higher, they however believed that the property (collateral) would continue going up.
Even the Mozilos of this world also believed that they are lending against Gold (a property).
To this day the biggest obstacle by far in negotiating a purchase price for a property is the MLS cartel.
With all the “for sale by owner” sites available it cannot free up the market so long that a huge commission based industry is here to manipulate the price.
January numbers look worst.
Santa Clara median Price (All Houses) dropped to $410,000.
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com
/id125.html
Will someone please submitt this to Suzanne for further reserch?
RayNLA
Crash already! In the meanwhile I'll be waiting on the sidelines.
Crash already! In the meanwhile I'll be waiting on the sidelines.
40 to 50 percent drop in median house price in one year and America is not in a Depression.
So what is the definition of a Depression
http://valleywag.gawker.com/
5151709/economic-crisis-leads-
to-economists-crisis
You know the old joke about how a recession doesn't turn into a depression until an economist loses his job?
Right now the bankers are enjoying multiple bids on REO properties discounted 50%-60% off peak bubble-nut prices.
Knife catching "investors" are bidding on these looking forward to becoming profitable landlords while they rent these homes out until the market recovers.
Reality will see rents continue to decline and a whole new wave of forclosures for the new "landlords" who can't get rents high enough to pay the mortgage.
I have followed this topic for 4 years and and have been all over Scal and LA. Seen those Compton crack shacks going for half million back in early 2007.
The lower end areas such as much of the IE and inner LA slums have collapsed and U can pick up REO property dirt cheap for under 200,000 but the IE is a pit. In Palmcaster/hi desert U can get large tract with a substantial REO on it for under $100,000 but
again those hi desert places are windblown pits.
The coastal hi-end is dead, nothing moving and price are dropping slowly but surely.
C'mon folks, sing along: We are the world, we are the children, we are the Ponzi...
Siddiqui, who made $225,000 a year as a top Fry's Electronics executive, once lost $8 million in a day.
It was not Siddiqui's only debt or even his largest. Court records indicate that the 43-year-old businessman gambled away as much as $167 million at casinos over the last decade. Yet even as he amassed huge IOUs, casinos around the country continued to lend him millions more.
Siddiqui's high-wire act began to unravel in October. A colleague went into his unoccupied office and found spreadsheets detailing millions of dollars in secret payments Siddiqui allegedly received from firms that sold products to Fry's. The co-worker scooped them up and took them to the Internal Revenue Service.
On Dec. 19, two dozen federal agents descended on Fry's corporate offices in San Jose and marched Siddiqui away in handcuffs. Siddiqui, the IRS contends, financed his gambling by taking at least $65.6 million in kickbacks.
http://tinyurl.com/cn78su
I sold my house in 2006 and am still waiting for numbers like this. Homes above the midian price are no where close to these price decline percentages. 20-25% max. in upscale sacramento area.
They still need to go much lower to reflect... reality
Available Financing= Home Sales
Ability to Sell a Home = Value
The availability of Home Mortgage money is getting tighter and tighter by the day. The $8,000 StimUseless tax credit is bringing a few 1st time buyers out, but only a few can qualify for the loan.
Home prices will continue to drop unless the government steps in and forces easing of lending guidelines. That's not an easy thing to do when foreclosures are climbing.
I have read several people refer to this situation like lava. It may not be your state now but numbers like this will eventually impact you.
Kalifornia's Dreamin':
"I sold my house in 2006 and am still waiting for numbers like this."
Uh-oh...the longer you wait, the more you burn through your profit paying rent.
The median price is not exactly indicative of the price declines in all areas. The lower cost homes so far have foreclosed or sold much quicker then the upscale ones. These people are continuing to hold on as they still have the resources.
It will take some time for the reality of lost fortunes to sink in for these folks so the depreciation (in homes and bank accounts) will be a long slow drain.
if they still got a gig in real estate,they are surely hanging on to them by the thinnest thread.
the west San Fernando valley woodland hills, Winnetka,west hills ,ca have seen declines of $180,000 on average from a year ago not from peak...
Well Im buying so ...
---SPECIAL BULLETIN MUST READ---
Monday, February 16, 2009
Time Magazine Names David Lereah as Part of '25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis'
Time Magazine Names David Lereah as Part of '25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis.' The page on Lereah is here.
When the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, an industry trade group, tells you the housing market is going to keep on chugging forever, you listen with a grain of salt. But Lereah, who held the position through early 2007, did more than issue rosy forecasts. He regularly trumpeted the infallibility of housing as an investment in interviews, on TV and in his 2005 book, Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?. Lereah says he grew concerned about the direction of the market in 2006, but consider his January 2007 statement: "It appears we have established a bottom."
Nice. Well put. He definitely deserves blame for the current financial crisis. It would have been much better if the mainstream media had shined the light of scrutiny on David Lereah back during the height of the bubble when he was cheer leading the bubble and then later denying the bust.
Funny Yunny Next. So Solly Charlly.
DIE U SCUMBAG PIG F*CKERS
Prices will keep on drop'n for quite sometime - until they are more inline with salaries.
The recent house-debters (many of whom are now facing foreclosure or job layoffs) will be up to their head in house repairs as these poorly built shacks begin to crack at the seams, and further devaluate in value.
While selling prices have plummetted, asking prices have not. Except foreclosures.
So even if you were okay with catching a falling knife and okay with another 20% drop after you buy you will still have to work hard to make sure the value reductions are in the final price.
It's mostly just foreclosures that have these lower prices and foreclosures come with their own set of challenges.
Just saying, sellers still need to wake up and smell the napalm.
"...Home prices will continue to drop unless the government steps in and forces easing of lending guidelines..."
Worked out pretty well the last time; don't you think?
Even foreclosures and bank owned properties are not exactly a bargain. I analyzed several investment properties that investors bought. A three unit building sold for 399K from a peak of 900K. At 399K, the so called investor will still lose money because rents won't cover all of the expenses. So it will end up costing the investor money every month, and that is if he can get renters for his asking price which is very high. All of these people who tried to catch a falling knife will end up getting burned and those properties will end up back on the bank's books. For anyone even contemplating about buying now, just wait, wait and be patient. We are in a very serious deflationary investment climate and you will be shocked to see how low prices can go!
From an earlier post back in 2007:
The ghettoization and conversion of LA into a humongous third-world festering gang-infested black hole region is largely ignored by the MSM especially our LA times due Mainly to igorance, naivety or PC correctness. Very few have been out to all these ghetto hoods to actually see the ramsnackle century- old crackshacks in graffitied slums selling for 1/2 million or more in impoverished illegal-alien packed slumzones where average household income is $45,000-50,000 at most(real, not stated liar incomes)
These are just three chosen slumzips to give an example:there are hundreds of slumzone zips like these all over LA county. I looked at data for home prices/ sales in many of these slumzones last 2 years and have been thru many of these hoods.
In Pacoima 91331 i saw homes selling for $500,000+ and a few listed as high as 3/4 of a million. Pacoima is one of the worst slums areas of the east SVF and a hotzone for RE fraudulent activity.
Lennox 90304(Inglewood/lax area) is one of nastiest blighted slumburgs in LA
yet i saw ton's of teardown/refurbished quick fix & flip 2/1,s going for $450,00-500,000 as late as last june.
LA zip 90011 which is directly south of LA dwtn is a real nasty polluted inner LA ghetto zip within earshot of dwtn. Median prices here averaged close to 1/2 mil in mid-2007. There was so much dumping and polluting in this hood, as with most of the ghetto hoods i've been thru, that it could have been declared an EPA superfund site.
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