April 3, 2009

So Great Depression II is now off the table, thanks to the trillions spent pumping us back up. It is what it is.



One for the history books for sure. Economists 1,000 years from now will be studying this one. We've bought our way out of GDII by printing/throwing trillions at it. Trillions we didn't have, until we printed them or borrowed them.

So, what's done is done. It is what it is. Obammmmy and the world leaders gave us cheese. Lots and lots of cheese.

The world will not go back to normal. But it won't go back to 1933 either.

And we'll be dealing with the effects of this episode for the rest of the century. If not longer.

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

Another meaningless chart. This is a long way from being over. What do you think that chart starts to look like when unsecured debt starts defaulting (credit cards/student loans)?

Kangtong

Alan Static said...

Clinton and Greenscam created Bubble I, Bush and Bernanke Bubble II. Similarly, monetary inflation, expansion of the money supply is the solution to this crisis. So Obama and Bernanke are intent on Bubble III.

What will it be? What crazy thing will end up with all that bubble money? Bonds? Farms?

Seriously I want to know so I don't get left out this time. I've learned my lesson.

Anonymous said...

Keith,
Liked your old blog. At least you were right then. Your wrong now. The trillions ain't doin squat. We are headed for a bear market rally and then equity decimation. Obama is just another version of Bush. Your being bought and your wrong.

Chris

casey said...

I was looking forward to selling tshirts in soup lines.

Roccman said...

oh kweefers...

you have a long way to go...

oh kweefers...

enjoy the die off ...

really

enjoy

Anonymous said...

It's not 1932 USA. It's 1921 Weimar Republic.

Afterthought said...

One would assume we are back to the pre-Panic days, yes.

But isn't that when you started shouting that the sky was falling?

Anonymous said...

Fools Rally.

If you want BAd wrong advice, listen to drug addled talking heads.

Cramer somehow comes to mind. His headline was the same today.

I couldn't watch the clip as he had dingbat Burnett along for the ride and I already vomited in my mouth once today listening to the mixed-race miracle proclamations..

So Fucked Up.

The Real Pain is well on its way.

Summer of Rage and Death 2009.

DIE USA.

bank dick said...

Alt-A defaults - pending
Credit card defaults - pending
Auto loan defaults - pending
Commercial RE bust - pending
Treasury auction failures - pending

Not to worry, all those pending disasters in the financial system will surely go away because some guys in London made a few speeches and shook hands.

Like the guy in Russia said when asked to compare this crisis to the one that shattered the Soviet Union, (with a laugh) "The collapse hasn't even begun."

Anonymous said...

again keith, taken from the market ticker and karl denniger....


http://tinyurl.com/dmnzky

so i ask you keith. what does this all mean? are you sure about great depression 2 being taken off of the table? keith, on AIG alone, much less any other of these scumbag companies....just how big is this black hole known as AIG....? how big?


Ticking Financial Nukes (OTC Derivatives)

Oh, this is not good.

Go read the latest AIG Ticker again. Specifically, this paragraph:

As with the phony reinsurance contracts that AIG and other insurers wrote for decades, when AIG wrote hundreds of billions of dollars in CDS contracts, neither AIG nor the counterparties believed that the CDS would ever be paid. Indeed, one source with personal knowledge of the matter suggests that there may be emails and actual side letters between AIG and its counterparties that could prove conclusively that AIG never intended to pay out on any of its CDS contracts.

Now consider this.

There is some gross "notional" (or face) value of $683.7 trillion dollars outstanding as of the end of June 08 (last data available.)

The lions share of those are not "CDS" on individual names or CDOs like what is going on here with AIG. They are instead interest-rate and/or FX products of one sort or another; $458 trillion worth.

If even a couple of percent of those swaps are in fact "private lettered" out in the fashion that AIG is alleged to have done with their CDS.....

(Hint: This is how "notional" amounts end up becoming realized losses!)

Our Congress had better dig into this hornets nest right damn now because if in fact there is any material amount of this crap going on in the OTC derivative market the $170+ billion blown on AIG trying to cover it up will be a mosquito on an elephant's ass in comparison to what's about to happen to the world's economy and banking system.

If, in fact, it cannot be proved that this is not the case, given the extraordinary lengths that both government and private parties have gone to in order to cover up what IRA alleges AIG was actually up to, we must ring-fence and cut off any part of the financial system impacted by a potential detonation of that market right now, including the US Federal Government, as such a detonation will, if it occurs, destroy any part of the financial system it infests at the time the unwind occurs.

No I'm not kidding.

This really is that serious and the extreme measures taken to attempt to hide this, assuming the IRA article is correct, implies strongly that there is a lot more of this going on that we're simply unaware of.

Yet.

Anonymous said...

these charts just show inflation, no bounce in private employment

Anonymous said...

Keith, those comparisons between now and gd1 are not that far off.

Did you ever consider that the way the government reports gdp, unemploymemt, and consumer prices may be less honest/different now than then?

Did you ever consider that higher consumer prices may not be a good thing?

Ya ever think that our downturn could speed up, and we catch up the 1930s?

I've been lurking around here since early 2006.
You completely nailed the housing bubble, the economic downturn, and the potus election of BHO. Well done.
Unfortunately, like Peter Schiff you were completely right about one thing but not another.

You're frequent early bottom calls and continued support of BHO(who is clearly owned by his campaign financiers- Wall Street fraudsters) is going to diminish your once great profit like standing, which is a shame.

best of luck

the real peyton manning

Anonymous said...

Somehow I am starting to lean towards Keith side. He is smothly making a nice case. Good work Keith.

Dny

Angry Leprechuan said...

If this does work, it will postpone the second great depression.

I think I am going to buy stocks in duct tape. Obama is using a lot of that shit to fix this mess.

Anonymous said...

I’m also going to start printing trillions of my own nothing backed currency, to help out our economy.

Skating away on thin ice said...

" It is what it is."

No, it isn't.

It's gonna crash...and crash HARD.

A false sense of optimism can be a dangerous thing:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDosgkws0-c

Anonymous said...

"...We are headed for a bear market rally..."

{WHEW}

Missed our chance to get out @ 14k...

Now we get one more good kick down the road, and we ain't gonna get greedy about it.

Anonymous said...

Clinton and Greenscam created Bubble I, Bush and Bernanke Bubble II. Similarly, monetary inflation, expansion of the money supply is the solution to this crisis. So Obama and Bernanke are intent on Bubble III.

What will it be? What crazy thing will end up with all that bubble money? Bonds? Farms?

Seriously I want to know so I don't get left out this time. I've learned my lesson.


-----------------------------------

One word: HEALTHCARE! The party's almost getting ready to start, and half the guests are yet to arrive. The nursing schools are packed, and the waiting lists stretch into YEARS. For those who want to enter with less training, the market for CNAs (certified nursing assistants) is HOT HOT HOT!!! If you like taking care of old people in nursing homes, there's MONEY MONEY MONEY!!!

alex3191 said...

Economy depends 70% on consumer-spending, which is falling off the cliff, day by day .. All my friends (tens) are struggling to survive, reducing their consumption and spending, everyone is saving, taking money OUT of this economic-circle and you think Great Depression 2 is "off the table" ? HA.

Saul said...

Keith,

Let's set the timer for -- one month -- and see how this GD II avoidance is going, ok?

There is still way too much shit coming down the pike. You seem to have economic ADD, these things take time. When this bounce turns around, it's going to fall hard. Hope needs to be convincingly shattered.

eric in vegas said...

What jobs will replace the 10 million+ that will be lost? Is the government going to print a few trillion more and pay people to dig holes?

eric in vegas said...

"One word: HEALTHCARE!"

Ahahahahahahaha please! Yeah I'm sure all those newly unemployed people are just going to create millions of health care jobs since they no longer have health coverage! Health care is another bubble that will pop unless we get UHC.

duarte said...

The central banks needed money because they leveraged the subprime mortgages 35 to 1 with derivatives gambling. Too much of it goes bad simultaneously and we print money to prop it up. Foreigners don't realize their commercial paper is worthless and the banks hope they never know. Obama makes the argument that all of that bail out money in the world will not inflate the money supply because it is simply taking the place of the bad securities. The trouble is, the alt-a and commercial real estate stuff is also leveraged at 30 to 1 and it hasn't even started to unwind, yet. Do the math. 1.5 to 2 trillion dollars (just in real estate) leveraged at better than 30 to 1. We haven't spent nearly enough to cover these bets. It is critical that they lie to us about the fractional reserves in the central banks. It is a house of cards based on subtle movements of world currencies versus the US Dollar. There is nothing on which to build another bubble. America has drastically slowed its rate of consumption. People will keep feeling the pain until inflation finally provides them with some debt relief. But Obama has no defense against inflation. He thinks it is his best friend. Nothing is off the table but the rule of law and the value of truth. The slightest event could topple the whole house. Watch what happens when one or several major world powers fail to control their currency. Do you think the Chinese are as convinced as you? Will they stop buying our debt? What about Iran and Syria? What about South and Central America? What about Africa? Do you think these "trillions" have bought stability for those countries? Eventually the money will be needed for real relief - for food, for water, for shelter. Printing more US dollars will do absolutely nothing but create inflation. The Great Depression was never this grim. 1929. Ha! Those lucky bastards!

yoski said...

Nonsense! First, in 1930 the official number were not cooked, You can't compare inflation, unemployment and GDP number from back then with today's.
Second, if indeed you could borrow and spend yourself to prosperity the Argentina and Zimbabwe would be the most prosperous countries in the world.
It will make the crisis so much worse.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
Somehow I am starting to lean towards Keith side. He is smothly making a nice case. Good work Keith.

Dny"

Maybe his REAL name in Obama? Another stupid sheep fooled and soon to be schooled...

DIE ASSHOLES

Anonymous said...

No transparency, stoneage.

too much rope said...

You really think so Keith? Yeah, I guess trillions and trillions is great, if it meant anything to me and my family. The problem is the same as it was during the boom: smoke and mirrors may impress the kids, but the fundamentals are still broken: credit is tight,and even if it wasn't people still can't get the same kind of money they used to (no doc mortgages, etc). On top of that, people are still losing jobs, and public confidence is still dropping. The gov is still trying to base improvements on things that just don't affect people's lives.

Anonymous said...

Keith - The chart looks like we're sitting at the top of the rollercoaster, just before the nosedive down to the bottom. You're in for a very painful surprise if you think we've dodge GDII. (C'mon man - use your brain here...I know you've got one!)

les said...

I would feel better if the same crooks who created this mess wasn't still in charge.

Anonymous said...

"One word: HEALTHCARE!"

Ahahahahahahaha please! Yeah I'm sure all those newly unemployed people are just going to create millions of health care jobs since they no longer have health coverage! Health care is another bubble that will pop unless we get UHC.


-----------------------------------

The guy wanted to know what the next bubble was, and I told him. Frankly, I hope the whole service sector goes bust. I'm wishing for a total collapse in healthcare. One that's so bad that doctors and nurses get tossed out on the curb. I'm serious! I'd like for those brand new fancy, gleaming, shiny health centers I see sprouting up all over the place, shut down and boarded up like unused strip malls and former medical device factories waiting to be explored! Let them rot, like a parking lot full of unwanted SUVs. Because if that happens, then our society will LEARN about the importance of MAKING useful products to SUSTAIN our economy.

An abandoned hospital is an interesting place, it really is. And sometimes, you run into one that's been closed for years, yet is tight enough where everything inside is still intact. Fascinating!

Mitesh Damania said...

I don't understand why healthcare is sooooo expensive. Help me out. How can a ambulance trip to the hospital cost thousands of dollars when the driver gets $10/hr?

Mitesh Damania said...

Heart surgery 1/2 million dollars? Get out of here!

Singular said...

Get ready for the billion-dollar note that will be printed up shortly for the American people to use at their local supermarkets.

Singular said...

You know, some people could have been sheltered from the economic mess. The ones who saved their money they earned working hard, buying their own homes responsibly and paying their taxes, not speculating their money and so on. But the government's policies since the start of the housing and banking crisis have ruined this. They made the 'innocent', the ones minding their own business, the ones working hard and taking care of themselves on what was left after they gave half of their income to the government, get involved in the mess too. Now these people are badly affected.

These people could have been a backbone; they could have formed some kind of sanctuary in the coming economic maelstrom. The rock in times of instability.

But the homeowner's bailout and the bailout of the banks, AIG, GM etc etc mean that these people are destroyed with the rest of them.

It could have been that the gangrene could have been cut away and the healthy tissue left alone. Instead, the government has allowed the gangrene to remain, and now the infection has spread everywhere, to the healthy parts now.

And as for Obama, he has no true idea what he is doing. He just wants to do what his handlers want him to do and to give the appearance of doing something. He probably guesses that the mess has gone too far to deal with so he just concentrates on cosmetic measures like printing trillions that do nothing except make things worse, but politically will look better than sitting back and doing literally nothing which will actually be a better solution economically-speaking.

He just wants the economy to look like it hasn't crashed on surface appearances for the next four years, and after that period, he can then pass the mantle (gratefully, I will guess) onto some other figurehead. This is the way. Presidents serve a term of four years or eight years max and so they don't have to worry about longterm planning. Neither do they have to worry about being executed if the country goes to ruins like the monarchs used to have to worry about in the old days. It's just about keeping the seat warm for a few years and crossing one's fingers that it doesn't all go to shambles during one's watch.

Anonymous said...

Those charts show exactly what I have been saying all along.

We're hardly down and you pansies here are talking guns and ammo.

I'd hate to see you losers have a real problem in life. I bet none of you soft-handed, sandal-wearing, goateed software geeks even know what it's like to sweat or steal for a living.

Your parents should be ashamed; unfortunately most of them are pathetic boomers and just like you.

Suck it up said...

If most of us would stop paying income taxes, the corrupt system that governs, extorts and dictates to us would die.

The government is a giant overblown fat parasite, drunk off the blood of WE THE PEOPLE. We feed their appetites and their corruption with our labor and creativity.

We continue to allow them to suck the lifeblood out of us. We are a stupid lot and deserve what we get.

"A Republic, if you can keep it" is a faint memory, and the founding fathers are turning over in their graves.

Heathclift said...

We're hardly down and you pansies here are talking guns and ammo.

I'd hate to see you losers have a real problem in life. I bet none of you soft-handed, sandal-wearing, goateed software geeks even know what it's like to sweat or steal for a living.

Your parents should be ashamed; unfortunately most of them are pathetic boomers and just like you.


Hmmm...somehow "soft-handed, sandal-wearing, goateed software geeks" AND "pansies talking guns and ammo" don't seem to go together. Maybe it's me.

What's the deal--it's oh-so-popular to rant against boomers these days. Blame Mama, blame Daddy, blame Uncle Joe. Let's see what your generation dishes out. I have a feeling it ain't gonna be pretty. You'll have the next generation on your ass to rant about it, too. And, the beat goes on.