May 28, 2009

So, we've just made it through two years of a mini-depression. How'd you come out?


Did you lose your job or business?

Did you get killed in the market, or did you hang in there to trade another day?

Did you god forbid listen to an idiot realtor on commission?

Did your house become the worst mistake of your life?


Or were you lucky enough to read Manias, Panics and Crashes, know what was coming, and things turned out pretty much OK?

90 comments:

Anonymous said...

Keith...come out implies it is over...it aint....1/3 of the way so far....grab your ankles and smile...its coming.

keith said...

It's not coming. It's over. We bought (printed) our way out of it. So enjoy the recovery.

Now in 2013, that's another story...

Anonymous said...

Happy times are here again!

Break out the bubbly!

It's time to celebrate!

The Bubble Man.


-Gonzo

Randy said...

I did not end up in a bunker with pretty ladies, like your pic :-)

Batman said...

Broke even on investments. Got 60% into tbills, 20% in gold miner stocks (both even). Lost big on copper mining company that was overleveraged but got it back on my gains in bullion.

Anonymous said...

I thank you for this website, but I think you're wrong. I think we're going to be back in a deep depression by mid-summer. The 4th of July may be the last time we celebrate for awhile. After that, it'll be, where is the money for food? clothing?

That money will be, of course, where American jobs have gone--overseas! (thanks free traitors!)

Anonymous said...

I am glad I got off the "Real Estate Bus" in 2002.
(In northern California--Calneva)
But I still see people trying to flip crap here in Stuart, FL; glad it is not me.
There must be somebody out there loosin' their ass, but I never hear about it . And rents are not coming down that much--anybody know what's going on ??

euonymous said...

"It's not coming. It's over. We bought (printed) our way out of it. So enjoy the recovery."

Keith, yer such a jokester!

Angry Leprechuan said...

Can we please talk to the sock puppet formerly known as Keith. This new guy keith has lost it.

Sorry Keith, guys like Schiff and Mish are talking a much different game than you are. We are maybe in the second inning.

Anonymous said...

2013, interesting thought. I suppose instead of trying to catch the falling knife, the "smart" ones in charge have thrown a couple of hundred knives up in the air for us to try and catch and there's a good chance we will see them back long before then.

Andrew from Russia said...

I feel depressed. It's not that I've had any losses (which are zilch, at least nominally), it's that the world is set for another few weeks/months/years of malinvestment, mismanagement and overconsumption before the much-needed cleansing returns.

Anonymous said...

Get ready...

http://photoshack.dyndns.org/FarberGold.pdf

Supernintendo Chalmers said...

sorry, Keith. you could not be more wrong if you said Dick Cheney had a soul. the world as we know it is over. get your rifle. the unrest will not be postponed.

but as a hedge i tried to buy a house recently w/ devalued dollars. today's frozen mortgage market just crushed me.

Mammoth said...

Lose my job?

Not...yet. But business is slow, and we have a warehouse full of products which the customers aren't buying.

Did I mention we design & build medical equipment?

No, we are not out of the woods just yet.

Rand follower said...

Saved up 18 months living expenses, in savings accounts. Did not buy real estate. Laid off in December. Living off savings (11 months left).

There seems to be a surplus in MBAs at this point in time, to my detriment.

Anonymous said...

We paid off our house with gains on investment properties in 2006. But then our stock investments took a huge hit.

Anonymous said...

Yep it's soooo over. We spent TRILLIONS of dollars on such great projects such as the Hoover Dam. This "recovery" is going to be very short lived followed by a nasty hangover. Prime housing is just starting to foreclose. We continue to lose half a million plus jobs a month with Chrysler/GM still ahead of us. Over?? Hah.

Warren said...

Let's see, I quit my mortgage gig in 2007 after graduating college, and I'm not in Healthcare, pursuing a CFA. Not bad, although my nerves have been screwed for God knows how long...

Anonymous said...

Gonzo,
Are you retarded, bringing down the world trade center was by far the greatest Arabian achievement in modern history.

There where celebrations all across Arabia, every village and town handed out sweets and danced in the streets.

Osamas name was plastered on every square as the second biggest thing since Mohamed; they sold more T-shirts with his image in the Muslim world then Pepsi and Marlboro cigarettes combined.

Batman said...

BTW, it aint over IMHO.

Consider who you're asking when you ask a question. Their answer won't be the truth necessarily, but what they want you to believe the truth to be.

Amtex said...

I am one of the few who came out of this in better shape than before. I bought 2 Florida houses back in 2003, expecting to live there. But you could see the bubble forming and the area changing....so I sold in mid-2005 and made a great profit.

I then got nervous when the market hit 13750 and bailed, went all Vanguard Money Market. I went back into the market at 6800 and bailed again 2 weeks ago.

I have no clue what will happen next....but I am very grateful for this blog and am more than content to keep my profits on the side lines.

keith said...

Folks, you gotta get with it.

We kicked the can down the road. Cost us a few trillion, and a few trillion more.

But it is what it is.

You can stay in your shelter, but that's your mistake.

We will recover. It may even be a V. Inflation will roar.

And then... the REAL sh*t will hit the fan.

But it won't be until 2013.

It hath been foretold.

Dr. Huxtable said...

Flipped about 10 houses from '07 to '08, and 5 so far in '09. I have made an avg of $50k per house.

I have about $600k in cash (USD) with no debt except a $10k student loan at 2.75%.

Too often when I touch mainstream investments such as stocks I lose money so I plan to continue flipping houses where I have direct control over my investment.

JAWS said...

Well, this was a big old depressionus-interruptus. What happened to the good stuff? The blood in the streets? Buying for pennies on the dollar? Riots? There wasn't even one decent riot.

B.F.D.

I should have kept everything and taken the screws to a few lenders.

I feel violated.

I'm prepared and I want to see chaos. I have Amish popcorn and Amish oil. I haven't even popped it yet. Now what?

geeski said...

i completely agree with keith. happy days are here again, for awhile.

the ship of state did not sink, it just took on a lot of water.

we either have to repay this debt and grow the economy past this debacle, or we stagnate and experience shockingly high inflation.

either way, party like a rock star. it doesn't matter.

Anonymous said...

i agree with keith, although i'm *cautiously* optimistic. i still have my job, my house ain't worth shit but oh well. if only i'd discovered this blog in 2006....

yoski said...

Keith:"It's not coming. It's over. We bought (printed) our way out of it. So enjoy the recovery.

Now in 2013, that's another story..."
Keith, it is impossible to say how much long "they" can keep the Ponzi scheme going. Sometimes I am just suprised at how long a doomed "process" can continue. Examples are Chrysler and the housing bubble. But when they fail it tends to be fast and furious.
There're many potential black swan events that can push our economy over the edge. Like major war in Pakistan/Iran, failed treasury auctions or a default on the COMEX to name a few. Sorry to sound so pessimistic. I am convinced that our entire economy/financial system is a giant Ponzi scheme. What can't go on forever will eventually stop. The exact point in time when it'll fall apart is impossible to predict but I'd be pleasantly suprised if it holds until the 2012 election.

JAWS said...

I am so damned disgusted that this mother-of-all-depressions is over I could spit!

I am going to roam around for another blog that says otherwise.

I need validation.

Singular said...

It's all about the jobs. The impact of their loss has not fully been felt. There is a time lag in these things. These jobs are not coming back, no new ones are being created (I don't care what Obama says about the 100,000 jobs - that's not enough anyway), and the bleeding is going on unstaunched.

The USA needs a HUGE change in policy, of revolutionary proportions, for a reversal to happen.

And I think that's unlikely to occur.

Things will speed up after 12 months' time. People will have on average about one year savings they can live on before they run out. Then they will live off family and pursue other options. Then these options will also run dry. Then the big misery will start.

The government basically did not look after the welfare of the people. The setup of the government is not conducive to that. The present system of representative democracy is a very faulty one. It encourages all the activities of the government that we bemoan now. I'm not trying to let the pollies off the hook, but you put in a different set of people, and you will get the same result. It is the system that is flawed. Change the system to iron out the flaws, and it will spit out better results, no matter what you feed (the politicians) into it.

The system was the best one that the revolutionaries could think of THEN; they did not have the benefit of foresight.

Anonymous said...

Almost two years ago to the day, I sold my condo, and banked a $200K check after paying the transaction costs. (The $200K includes the not-insubstantial equity I had accumulated in the place.)

I didn't put the money in the market; in fact, I also mostly didn't put my 2005 401K rollover back in the market, either and even sold off some more at the first fed rate cut in Sep 2007.

Since then I've made back a gain of 8-10% of net worth, mostly in money market and CD yields (when there WAS a yield) and trading and holding gold. Which about cancels my house transaction costs.

But, I still recognized that my wealth has decreased, due to the dollar falling. But not as much as that of stockholders!

Missed out on the spring rally this year, but I think we'll double-dip this fall/winter, especially as bond yields are now starting to back up, and things such as the auto industry contraction deepen.

casey said...

Got laid, racked up more credit card debt.Getting ready to file chapter 7.Life is good my friends.Keep paying the banks extorsion money.

Holyschlitz said...

Keith, it ain't over by a long shot. I don't see anything that says things are getting better, only not getting worse as fast.

JaneZ said...

Or were you lucky enough to read Manias, Panics and Crashes, know what was coming, and things turned out pretty much OK?
_____________________________

Lucky enough to find Mish and yes things have turned out really well with our retirement at Sitka Pacific.

We have made a lot of money since January on the rally, while our boomer friends are still nursing 30 to 40% losses in their 401k's and IRAs waiting for Obama to turn it all around with his cash blizzard. It is all about buy and hold ya know.

Even Schiff is not saying it is over so I am not sure where you are getting your info, unless you believe the Headlines that 90% of Economists (who would they be?) say that happy days are here again.

What does this recovery mean anyway? Back to the mall, back to the stock market, great time to buy a car, a house??? New credit cards and loans for everyone?

What does a V shaped recovery mean exactly?

Singular said...

That picture is not so far off from reality. I suggest people make a bunker like that if they have a backyard. Bury a huge metal drum-home (sold as nuclear shelters) and stock it up with necessities that will last you 3 years minimum. Canned goods and bags of cereals, grains and dried foods (minimize foods that you have to cook with water though). Also some gallon jugs of water (enough to last 2 months - you can come out after 2 months after nuking, and you can then look for water outside). This storage place-cum-bunker can serve as a nuclear shelter in case there is ever a nuclear war. It can also be a place where you can keep your foodstuffs in a cool dry place, so even though there may not be a nuclear event, the place still will have been useful.

In the Bible, Joseph told the Pharaoh to prepare for seven lean years (although I think Joseph had nefarious intentions in telling the Pharaoh that). You can do that too.

MsNJ said...

What is going to happen in 2013?

Paul E. Math said...

I haven't lost my job. Yet. Our group actually seems busy for the next little while but I believe I'm the most expendable member of our group.

Financially, I'm not sure, I probably just broke even.

I've done really well trading stocks in my brokerage account and my self-directed IRA. BUT... I only started this about a year ago, moving funds in gradually and I got killed on my 401k.

However, I'm not as convinced as you are, Keith, that we are out of the woods. In fact, I don't believe we are.

If you can have stagflation then you can also have depflation (inflationary depression). This has not been ruled out, in my opinion.

As I indicated a few threads ago, my money is all in commodities (gold miners, uranium miner, alt energy, agriculture). My 401k is all international thinking that someday we get de-coupling.

And I'm clinging to my job for dear life.

moretroops said...

Supernintendo Chalmers has the best handle on here. I have nothing to add.

Nimesh said...

Thank God, I didn't buy a house or a business. Thank God for websites like Housing Panic, patrick.net, Dr. Housing Bubble, etc...

When I got out of college, the first thing I wanted to do was buy a house. And even than (2001) prices were high compared to rents and via the web, I did my research.

Because of those so called "alternative" news/financial websites, I didn't do what everyone else was doing.

Now, I just will wait this deflationary depression out. I can't wait to buy a house for all cash and for a great price. I am confident it will eventually come down to sane levels.

Anonymous said...

RE: "Are you retarded, bringing down the world trade center was by far the greatest Arabian achievement in modern history."

**********************************

Ah, no, I think YOU got that wrong idiot!

I think you mean:

Bringing down the world trade center was by far the greatest Bush/Cheney "fake attack" achievment in modern history.

The scientific evidence and proof behind the "false flag attacks" are recorded on over 22+ million video recorders just for starters.

JAWS said...

I think I'll buy a Ford.
Might as well.
Everything's hopeless.
Might as well blow up in a nice, hot, Las Vegas intersection.

Anonymous said...

what depression? imax star trek was still sold out .. where are these starving children that we speak of?

i turned out fine. didn't lose my job. didn't buy that house. didn't lose my 401k (equities to bonds in 07).

nothing .. they were right when they said that this aint your grandfather's depression .. this depression was pathetic ..

Anonymous said...

Well, I just lost my job in the media biz, which is as hard-hit as the auto biz. My husband's biz is off by 50%. We're in our mid-50s, which means we're virtually unemployable in today's world. Thank goodness we didn't leverage the house, which is paid for and the kid is through college. We have no debt, but our 401K scam is more like a 101K.

We are hunkered down and assuming that we're on our own from here on out ... fashioning some sort of former upper middle class hand-to-mouth existence with little bits of income here and there from sources such as rentals, from now on out, combined with spending cut as low as possible and growing own food and burning wood to supplement oil.

We could live for a year just selling my old Chanel and Vuitton handbags and shoes, which is exactly what I'm going to do.

Forget retirement.

When are we going to try and fry these thieves who brought this on our heads???

Keith -- don't think we're out of the woods yet ... firings among my baby boomer pals are just now kicking in. Everyone in a cubicle or an office who is over the age of 49 has a target on his/her forehead. Too expensive in the new world order.

mimi said...

I like to be positive and have hope for the future - like something really big being discovered - maybe the worst is over - but we'll be feeling residual effects for a few years. People are still losing their jobs - but it's just little leaks here and there. We are still employing temps with advanced degrees - when we go back to only bozos being available - then it will be over.

Miss Goldbug said...

Financially we did fine. Went all cash in summer of 07.

Husband was laid off 2 months ago. First time in his life. After sending out many resumes, he has an interview next week.

We're happy renting since fall of 2004. Glad we sold when we did. Could have made alittle more money if we sold two years later, but oh well... we thought the credit markets would blow before 8/07'.

The couple who bought the house from us sold after only 2 years, they couldnt hang on since one of them lost their job. The person who bought it from them is now screwed.

This depression is far from over. Without a job recovery, there's no recovery. Government is starting to lay off workers, and reducing welfare benefits, which I think is a good thing.

wallstreetvet said...

investments down 4% in 2008. job toast, lots of vacations, life is good

Anonymous said...

Last two years?????

I ain't begun yet!

You ain't seen nuthin yet!

vanilla ice said...

Really, we're coming out of the recession/depression? Is it 2015?

Miss Goldbug said...

Come this summer we will have an avalanche of homes going up for sale, with no buyers. No one can qualify for a loan. If that doesnt scare buyers into holding off, I don't know what will.

This will be the summer of discontent, followed by a fall none of us will forget.

Get ready-save cash for skyrocketing interest rates and buy some gold.

Anonymous said...

.




They can talk this economy UP all they want...

and in the end

it's just talk!


.

Anonymous said...

Once again, people here are whistling past the graveyard.
The USA is going to go down in the fall. The cause will be the run away from the dollar and one or two Wall street shocks.
What about commercial real estate? What about credit card debt? I don't see too many shoppers out there buying things at Home Depot.
Smith & Stevens quietly moved out of their store here in the middle of the night. They promised that this store was NOT going to close and would not be part of the bankruptcy plan. We are selling items at a discount because we intend to bring in the stock from other stores that are closing they said. Then whammo! Empty, Gone, Vanished!

Anonymous said...

Once again, people here are whistling past the graveyard.
The USA is going to go down in the fall. The cause will be the run away from the dollar and one or two Wall street shocks.
What about commercial real estate? What about credit card debt? I don't see too many shoppers out there buying things at Home Depot.
Smith & Stevens quietly moved out of their store here in the middle of the night. They promised that this store was NOT going to close and would not be part of the bankruptcy plan. We are selling items at a discount because we intend to bring in the stock from other stores that are closing they said. Then whammo! Empty, Gone, Vanished!

An Id-10-t said...

Our rate of descent has stopped accelerating... But we have not yet hit bottom.

Are the banks recovering yet? No.
Tax revenues? No.
Shipping revenues up? No.
Jobs being created? No.
Mozillo indicted? No.

All I see is smoke and mirrors - creative accounting with the banks. Birth/Death model shenanigans with the unemployment reports. All lies and twisted statistics.

Anonymous said...

Time to shut 'er down, Keith. The next blog can be the Rainbow and Lollypop blog. A place where we can all talk about how much we made flipping houses, or is that one already taken?

i've had it said...

Not over, man.

Batten down the hatches for phase II.

Otherwise, I made out fine....thanks to you! I was up last year. Down a bit this year due to early year bets that went the wrong way but nothing too serious.

More pain to come, no matter what the Socialists try to do. They can't stop the crash. The can has been kicked to the fall...and then it's the beginning of the end.

hp fan said...

Stop smoking those green shoots!

Just say NO!

Anonymous said...

Keith, you claim that trillions of wasted dollars have ended the recession/depression.

Unemployent is still rising.

Foreclosures/defaults still rising.

Private credit is still contracting.

Interest rates are starting to rise.


Where is the recovery going to come from? What sectors?

Besides massive government borrowing; What should we look for that would validate the recovery?


-The real Peyton Manning

emmy said...

It ain't over, it's just revving up.

Anonymous said...

I was lucky to run into the many housing bubble blogs starting in 2005. I went into safe mode on my 401K, probably about a year too soon. But I have not lost a dime.

Thanks All.

Afterthought said...

Sorry my main man, the tea leaves are reading black swan market slump.

The job losses are just too much.

Anonymous said...

"I don't want to sound like a self-serving guy, but we did try to rein them in," Bush said.To tell you the truth, I'm not sure he's telling the truth.Heh heh.

Devestment said...

I haven't even paid the piper yet.

Don't I get to pay the piper?

Devestment said...

last wave alt-a's due in 19 months.

Still in the middle of the derivitives crunch.

Inflation is here at the same time as high unemployment, household wealth devaluation, and the rest of the bill for the housing debit bubble.

It looks like a total depression style disaster to me.

Anonymous said...

luv that photo. that guy managed to get two chicks down into his shelter....

smooth operator. must be the tie he has on.



December 2008

Anonymous said...

kicked the can down the road?

mmmm. i think it is more like bernanke kicked the can real hard into the wind and the wind picked it up and is going to blow it past where he kicked it from.

The can is starting to come back to us vs us going to the can to kick it again.

December 2008

keith said...

Alright folks, get in the way-back machine. It's 2002.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession

The stock market has melted down. Job losses are everywhere. Businesses have closed down. The nation is in a funk.

And Alan Greenspan is taking rates to near zero, while George Bush is unleashing massive tax cuts and even stimulus checks.

So if someone had told you in 2002 "we're kicking the can down the road. Enjoy the recovery - but oh, man, wait until 2008" would you have disagreed?

Well, you shouldn't have.

The can can be kicked down the road.

Until it can't.

We can still kick the can, simply and only because the US dollar is the world's reserve currency. We can print our way our of messes.

But I think this is the last time.

So, when the next crisis hits, and it will, don't expect the world to rush to dollars. Don't expect them to buy t-bills at 1%.

Enjoy the recovery, it could be a doozy. But think five steps ahead. You'll REALLY want to be prepared for the next one.

And no, 'recovery' doesn't mean the job losses stop, or home prices stop falling. It means it's stopped getting worse. The rates of decline slow. And slow, and slow, and slow, and THEN you get your positive numbers. That might not happen until middle 2010.

Just trying to help.

Nice to have a place where people disagree on this. Most blogs are 100% of the same view. This one sure ain't.

Anonymous said...

Recession over

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=13712181&ch=4226720&src=news

eric in vegas said...

But what bubble will we have to bail us out? Is this going to be a recovery to a lower standard of living?

Bukko_in_Australia said...

Jaws (and Keith too) -- if you're looking for reasons why the Depression is NOT over, read The Automatic Earth econoblog. (Isn't that on your blogroll anyway, Keith? It's got me convinced that America's problems -- and the entire world's -- are not solved any better by the trillions of funny money being spewed out.

It's like if I had a good printing press in my garage and ran off a couple of million to pay off my mortgage. (Assuming that I had one.) Sooner or later, people would catch on that the money is crap. The bills WILL have to be paid! Either that, or the debt will go to Mish's "credit heaven" and the people who loaned that money will be screwed. Either way, the pain is waiting to be felt, just like the hangover after a three-day bender. You can stall it with some "hair of the dog" but the pain is gonna come.

I'm with the people that say "respite until the fall." You might be right about the short term, Keith, but it's gonna hit sooner than 2013. I don't mind missing a few investment opportunities with my permabear view, because I'm planning my life path in terms of decades, not years.

keith said...

I think this size of a money printing party buys us a few years

Might as well pave the streets with gold, and give everyone a new car.

Credit binges are fun. REAL fun. And then you eventually have to pay the bill. Or default, as the case may be.

Saul said...

It aint over until the fat lady sings. She's just humming now. We've got a long way to go but things are about to get interesting.

Bukko_in_Australia said...

You could very well be right on that credit-binge-buy-time-before-default theory. I hope you are. Because I've been waking up in the middle of the night wondering how I'm going to liquidate everything, buy wads of gold in Zurich and smuggle hundreds of ounces back to the U.S. or Oz. (Anything over 10 ounces per person is illegal, but it's easier to do than smuggling hash from A'dam. No gold sniffer dogs at the airport!) Maybe it's "No hurries, mate!"

Anonymous said...

Northeast Ohio GM workers wait to hear if their plants are going to close

"As General Motors heads toward a likely Monday bankruptcy filing, thousands of Ohio auto workers are wondering whether their plants are on a list of 14 facilities targeted for closure.

The Lordstown assembly and stamping plants and their 2,250 jobs appear safe. But some of the nearly 4,700 workers at plants in Parma, Mansfield, Toledo and Defiance might not be so lucky when the list comes out next week.

http://tinyurl.com/lmlbds

Anonymous said...

I'm doing so well I'm afraid to jinx meself if I gloat. My best trade was selling BAC when they announced their merger w/ ML and then going back in the first week of March this year.
Anton Chiguhr

Dr. Huxtable said...

"keith said...
Alright folks, get in the way-back machine. It's 2002."

One difference I see now is that the almost 0% rates are not being passed through to the consumer like they were 2002-2005. Instead banks are taking advantage of consumers and making fat margins.

This might be a recovery for the banks and corporations, but maybe not for the genaral American Population.

Anonymous said...

im better off than i was 2 years ago.

Anonymous said...

"It's not coming. It's over."

if anything i qould predict stagflation until 20013.

but i would not say stagflation = over.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't the money have to get into consumer hands to create a recovery?

Where is this credit binge? Consumers are having credit withdrawn, mortgages are much, much harder to get. For regular folks credit is shrinking.

There is continually LESS $$ making it's way into JSP's hands. So where is the recovery, in the banks fake books?

Sure people are spending money at the movies and restaurants and the malls have bodies but their not spending. Millions of $$ in every bubble city every month floating around because people have stopped paying their mortgage.

Anonymous said...

Went to three banks within last two weeks just to see what it will take to qualify for a home loan.

All three were the same story.

I, 50, married, no kids with No debt, cash heavy, with a decent income although less than 07 08. And when the wife works she makes good money (specialized computer crap).

Owned a home and sold it in late 2003.

Can Not qualify by the standards set up now, if they are followed to the letter.

Some of it was easily done, others became hard to pull together.

Part of my problem is that I pay CASH for everything, always have...that was advice from gramps.

The one bank said my wife must also jump thru the same hoops. Because her work is rather hit and miss now (no proof of steady income) they said we won't qualify.

I said, "Wish I would have done this two or three years ago when you gave this stuff away"

The loan rep said, "We have to make sure people can pay us back"!

I said, "You sure weren't worried about that back then"!

She sheepishly replied, "I know, that's why we are in the troubles we're in now"!

Duh!

.

Anonymous said...

I think you're correct in kicking the can down the road, but with mortgage rates now out of HeliBen's control, the distance kicked is a lot shorter than you think. I don't think we get to 2013, maybe early 2011, before this incredible increase in total debt load starts running into high interest rates needed to maintain that debt. It then turns into the financial version of The China Syndrome.

gutless and lazy said...

And no, 'recovery' doesn't mean the job losses stop, or home prices stop falling. It means it's stopped getting worse. The rates of decline slow. And slow, and slow, and slow, and THEN you get your positive numbers. That might not happen until middle 2010.Sounds like to me, we've won Keith over to the L shaped 'recovery'. His previous writings had tones of postive GDP in Q2, green shoots everywhere, and we were off the the party for a few years.

Now it sounds his 'recovery' is defined by a 'flat line' where things no longer get worse. Until they do.

WELCOME ABOARD KEITH!!
ALL ABOARD!!!

Lady Di said...

"Not as bad" is the new good. I get it, although not sure I agree with the "not as bad" part.

Net worth down 15% mostly due to real estate. It would have been worse, but:

a.) I hold gold, and
b.) I got out of the market in Jan of 08.

I did miss this recent rally, and damn it was a good one. I have respect for those who had the guts to go in. It obviously paid off.

gutless and lazy said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30998284

"Bailouts and government spending do appear to have warded off Great Depression II, but the current government-supported financial system may not be enough to do much more than keep the economy breathing. In the words of Mr. Kaufman, whose prescient warnings of credit market excesses in recent years were largely ignored by Wall Street, “we do not have the financial firing power to lift this economy in any meaningful way.”

Not bad for CNBC. I media company filled with bubble headed, blonde barbie dolls and ever-so-hip frat boys.

Why is CNBC now such a perma bear?
LOL!

JAWS said...

Okay, fine, I'm beginning to get the picture now.

Thank you Bukko in Australia for the lead to The Automatic Earth Econoblog. Very much appreciated.

Also, Mike Morgan's site has a Chinese Proverb...

"You can only go halfway into the darkest forest, then you are coming out the other side."

Proverb Note..."The trick is knowing when you are past the halfway mark, and then having the wisdom to find the way out. the same holds true for the current real estate market."

The fog is beginning to clear.

Anonymous said...

Well, this guy speaks pretty much for most of us:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NWFA6g2x-4

Anonymous said...

This country will be f-ed by Dec 09. The stock market and media are being pumped by Government Sachs. Haven't you noticed that the mortgage sector just locked due to skyrocketing T-Note rates?

Care to tell us Keith what will be carrying this economy until 2013? $4,000 AAPL laptops? $30,000 solar panels for $70k homes? Abortion clinics?

Anonymous said...

Looks like a lot of home owners are in panic.
It's a good time to buy a house. Isn't it.
I'm closing next week. 30years fixed. Less than 5%.
Keith is right. They postponed the crash.

Anonymous said...

Guys, they will not let it fail.
They will crash the dollar but the economy will not fail.

chslaxcoach said...

I went from having a job making consumer products that were sold to the Chinese to getting laid off and getting two job offers that paid better from defense contractors.

So, I went from helping our economy to being a leech.

les said...

The US Govt will end up forking out $100 billion to GM and Chrysler.

GM and Chrysler will sell about 2.5 million cars this year.

Do the Math. The US govt has provided GM and Chrysler with $40,000 for each car that they produced and sold this year.

$40,000 bailout money for each car!

Is that how we save jobs in America.

How could it cost so much to save these two companies?

How are they ever gonna pay it back.



Here's another number. GM and Chrysler employees 140,000 workers.

Do the Math. $714,285 bailout bucks per worker.

Wow. That really makes sense now.



I don't even want to think how much it costs us to save all those Wall St. jobs (per person I mean).

Anonymous said...

My house was the BIGGEST mistake of my life.
Listened to a scam artist/realtor.

Stocks null house underwater...
Nice.