June 15, 2009

If that was just a bear market rally, and the green shoots were just a mirage, here's what we'd be looking at


If I was wrong, I'll be the first to admit it.

I don't think I am. But you never know.

I don't think bears or bulls can have a lot of confidence right now.

So after that massive and historic rally, maybe the sidelines are again the best place to be as the dust settles.

With popcorn. Lots of popcorn.

Jiffy Pop.

Extra butter.



70 comments:

Aqua said...

Buh buh but.

What will the hateful parasites do if things are OK and they cant blame their misery on the woooo scaaary ‘Zionist bankers’?

yu been skooled said...

Your prognostications about the direction of the market are quite hilarious and anyone who has read the book (XXXXX) knows you don't even have the slightest idea what your data means or if it even has any meaning.

(XXXX) I will not give you the pleasure or knowledge that the book in question imparts. It is too valuable for a mindless premature ejaculator such as yourself.

I will revel in the joy that comes from observing the predictable mistakes and flaws in reasoning most amateur economists and investors (such as you and your sycophants) make.

gutless and lazy said...


If I was wrong, I'll be the first to admit it.


Since many of us have been pointing out that the economy has merely put in a localized bottom, and that this is just a bear market rally in a longer secular decline ...

then it will be impossible for you to admit FIRST that you are wrong.

Just saying ...

Anonymous said...

Yawn !!!!
The U.S.A is dead man walking .Just a matter of time .Change is coming America , you deserve what you voted for . Just suffer in silence when it happens because no one cares .
Bush , obama , It's all the same
Enjoy your new fascist leadership. Followed by the one world government . Oh you dumbed down assholes will be lead to believe it is a good idea and for your best interest . You have been foretold , This is something i will lay my life down for i am that certain it will happen.
You can have your precious gay marriages in exchange for the loss of all you real personal freedoms .
Democracy what a joke 2 party system . Please , 2 sides of the same coin , makes you feel like you have a choice . There is none so blind as those that will not see.

Randy said...

Keefer,
Again, I’m not sure what you’re saying aside from
‘maybe things aren’t going to explode after all’

Do you?

Am just not seeing a plan or direction from you, just very high-level talk of ‘green shoots’

Also, check this out: http://tinyurl.com/ks6cd3

gutless and lazy said...

Ohio Credit Rating Cut by Moody's as State Economy Shrinks More Than U.S. (FINALLY!!)

International Purchases of U.S. Assets Slow as China, Japan Trim Holdings (HIGHER INTEREST RATES ANYONE?!)

Manufacturing in New York Region Shrinks at Faster Pace as Sales Decline (YELLOW WEEDS)

www.bloomberg.com

Charles said...

I think your Popcorn joke is getting old....

Other than that Caifornia (my home) is still imploding. They can inflate the market but not the economy in general. Deflation is still running it's course and if you didn't get in on the current BMR a few months ago I doubt your gonna make any money and would probably lose in real terms.

And the dollar ain't going away as all the fiats of the world inflate it will more a less keep pace.

Draw an L with a pencil and put it under a microscope and your sure to see a V or a W or a VL...

But zoom out and it's just a big fat L!

Anonymous said...

What's wrong Keith? Losing faith in your savior?

Anonymous said...

Keith, you disappoint me. Look at some of the historical bull traps that have taken place during secular bear markets. Bitch please....

Smug Bastard

Anonymous said...

total sucker rally. back to 7000'ish by August. In the 6000's by Christmas.

Mortgage rates hit 7 percent by Christmas too. Not because of the demand for cash, but to compensate for the underlying risk in home prices diving further.

Andrew from Russia said...

These weeds are annoying. As announced earlier, I'm getting rid of my stock-market haystack while it still sells and turning back to the other, conservative shade of green (don't tell me that the Bureau of Engraving and Printing is working overtime).
Got Herbicide?

keith said...

I think we have two stories - the economy, and the stock market.

On the economy, we had a massive destocking take place Q4 and Q1. Massive. Historic. And now that destocking is finishing up, and we'll start seeing increases in production and GDP. Trillions and trillions of government cheese thrown at it also is very stimulative.

Then we have the stock market. The casino. We had hedge funds doing their version of destocking, as they deleveraged from 30 to 1, and in many cases cashed in and went away. We also had hedge funds driving the market down with massive leveraged short bets.

Then in March, after crashing the market, they smartly did a 180 and made a fortune on the way back up.

And now we're where we are today. I think the hedge funds that got long in March are cashing in, with a massive - MASSIVE - quarter. And the hedge funds that missed the rush are hoping and praying for a correction so they can buy.

Bottom line - it's a casino, controlled by the hedge funds, and so easy to manipulate. Joe Blow Investor doesn't stand a chance.

So, to sum it up, I see green shoots in the economy, and I see craziness at the casino.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

If nothing else, you keep things lively. That's why I keep coming back.

A lot of people got sucked into this notion that we're at the bottom and things are slowly improving. I have disagreed with that view and now believe it's contrarian (once again) to be short the market. If nothing else, this market is in real need of a 10% minimum pullback - it's so over bought. Question is, how long can the PPT keep pumping? I think they're near the end (for awhile), now that the banks have raised enough short term capital. For me, when all the upgrades start coming out for stocks, I know it's over. Upgrades almost always come at the END of a run, never at the begining. Economists and analysts are notorious for missing "the move."

Europe smells said...

Al-Queefer,

How come we’re not hearing much from the rotten Eurotards about
Excessive force being used by their proxy militias in Iran?

Nor do we hear bold headed evil Euroards flapping their crooked teeth about
Disproportionate force.

http://tinyurl.com/mxhvxc

Hmmmm.

anon said...

Anon said:
'The U.S.A is dead man walking .Just a matter of time .Change is coming America , you deserve what you voted for . Just suffer in silence when it happens because no one cares .'

Why dont you move to a better place?

If you hate it here so much git the f@ck outta here!

DOPES 2 said...

HI TOOLS!!!!

WHO CARES!!!!

LET IS CRASH, LET IS SOAR!!!!

I GOT MINE, IF IT RUNS OUT THEN I TAKE A FLYING LEAP FROM A BRIDGE!!!!

SAVE OR SPEND, QUIT THE WORRY AND JUST GO WITH IT!!!!

THE CHART IS OKAY, BUT GUESS WHAT IS MISSING?!?!?!?!

IT DOESN'T TELL YOU THAT THE WORLD ENDED!!!!

THEREFORE, THE WORLD WILL NOT END, AND SOME OF YOU OUT THERE MAY JUST MAKE A SH!TLOAD IN THE PROCESS!!!!

THERE IS PLENTY OUT THERE, QUIT BITCHING AND STEP UP!!!!

TWITS!!!!

TOOLS!!!!

DOLTS!!!!

DOPES!!!!

Anonymous said...

I think you're right Keith. In fact, I think you are so right I'm going to take a HELOC out so I can buy a new Nissan GT-R and a vacation in Europe.

Thanks for the heads up!

MsNJ said...

I moved all of my IRA out of stocks at DJIA 8300 2 weeks ago. It's sitting in MM, high yield bonds, and some other managed bond funds right now.

Waiting for the market to crash again, as I think it will sometime before the end of the year, before I get back into stocks again, and then it will be value funds only.

JaneZ said...

On the economy, we had a massive destocking take place Q4 and Q1. Massive. Historic. And now that destocking is finishing up, and we'll start seeing increases in production and GDP.

Production of what?

Anonymous said...

Anon said;
‘I think you're right Keith. In fact, I think you are so right I'm going to take a HELOC out so I can buy a new Nissan GT-R and a vacation in Europe.’

Of all the beautiful places on our planet you choose bloody Europe?

Atleast you got good taste in cars

Anonymous said...

Is this how you "get" things right Keith.

Support all views and you should always be right.

Again, Mish should be on the top of your economist list. I bet you he will win over Schiff anytime.

Dny

keith said...

Dny - just being honest with the readers.

I saw panic in March, along with the first whiff of green shoots. Look where we are now vs. those days.

And now, I see an overbought stock market and hedgies cashing in on their massive quarter.

I have no idea - NONE - where the stock market {casino} goes from here. Scary I'd say. The easy money was made.

But on the economy, I see improvement all around - improvement from a near-depression. That doesn't mean things will be good, or back to normal. They'll just be less bad.

13% unemployment is pretty much a sure thing. Anyone remember the US with 13% unemployment? It ain't pretty.

I'm liking the sidelines again. The risk/reward of sticking your neck out isn't too tempting - not like it was in March.

Sometimes, the best thing to do is to do nothing.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

While you are at it. Take a look at this... I'm sure this is pretty surprising to you. Who could have known.


U.S. Treasury prices rallied Monday for a third straight session after downbeat data on manufacturing and the housing market combined to send investors to the perceived safe haven of government debt.

Dny

Dr. Huxtable said...

I am telling you, housing priced < $400k, especially housing <$300k, is booming in sales right now, booming.

Everyday more homes go Pending than are listed; i.e., decrease in inventory happening right now.

It has already happened; the numbers have just not been reported yet by the NAR through the media.

35%+ increase in sales YOY. Possible 5%+ increase in prices.

Just wait another week until the headlines hit.

Dr. Huxtable said...

To clarify, housing prices have increased from begining of 2009 5-10%, but will still be down YOY (June '09 vs June '08).

Anonymous said...

Keith,

I agree with some of your opinions. Very unlikely that any 2 people will ever agree on everything.

On that note, I don't see any green shoots. I see things getting worst at a lower pace... This does not equate to green shoots.

The stock market has done something that probably most of us would have never dreamt (rallied), but I did feel (On march 9th) that we've hit some type of bottom as the armagedon news were coming out of left field. Let's just say that my trade is up 80% since the low.

I think traders are pricing in a recovery which has not and will not happen anytime soon. The recovery is long off. Again, printing money is useless when the banks are digging a whole in the backyard and sticking all that cash in it. When the market realizes that there's no recovery in sight, look out below.

Let's see who's right, but I believe it'll be a long way to the bottom. You can only fool the market so long.

Dny

Lost Cause said...

The leading indicator -- stock market -- is in a rally based on trailling indicator -- unemployment rate -- and you think that everything is fine, and you are already in production on multiple styles of basketry composed of the bounty of green shoots.

Lost Cause said...

And I do mean to warn you about Los Angeles. This city is fitted with very high curbs, because the blood in the streets has gotten very high in the real estate market in the past. Just stay in your car, and you should be fine.

Anonymous said...

Dr. Huxtable,

Is that a joke? I mean, really. Is this a joke dude.

Dny

Anonymous said...

"...hateful parasites...blame their misery on the woooo scaaary ‘Zionist bankers’..."

How terribly unfair that.

Certainly selling liar-loan pools as AAA securities was an honest, innocent oversight.

will shill for coin said...

>housing prices have increased from begining of 2009 5-10%.

Are you out of your freakin mind???

Anonymous said...

Keith,
Glad you were able to clarify.
-JDF

Afterthought said...

It's not when you buy, it's when you sell that makes you money.

Oh, and the big boys make money off the volatility.

PS We still love you Keith! Keep it up!

Anonymous said...

ANON SAID...Why dont you move to a better place?

If you hate it here so much git the f@ck outta here!


Thats just it i love America and the principles it was founded on . I just hate were it is going .So at that point i will leave ,Live free or die trying and all that jazz.

Prophet Atlantis said...

"Up a thousand points, down a thousand points. Stock market numbers fluctuate. The only numbers that matter are those you buy and sell at." ---- Prophet Atlantis.

Over the past few months Federal Administration officials said they were openly and quietly, directly and indirectly by proxy use of other organizations, buying equities, stocks, bonds, loans, commodities, properties, homes, cars and loans and anything else they deemed necessary to stabilize or enhance the market and economy.

WATCH OUT when the government/ proxies stop buying. Recent News reports stated that the government was considering not paying the stimulus remainder or they had already stopped including not buying up loans, equities, and so on.

Musical Chairs has been playing and the music may have stopped. Run, people, RUN to your chairs!

Prophet Atlantis,
Olympia, WA

Prisoner No. 6 said...

And now that destocking is finishing up, and we'll start seeing increases in production and GDP.

Seeing this already. Last weekend, we were down in the Port of Los Angeles, where there were about 8 square miles of cars roasting in the sun, unsold. I say "were" because the 710 freeway north is clogged with big carrier trucks hauling those imported cars off to be sold.

Demand is picking up. There's a lot of frustrated money on the sidelines, cautiously sticking their toes into the water, wondering if the sky is going to fall again.

You put your finger on the underlying story: we massively overbuilt and overproduced, based on huge debt. That collapsed, leaving us with too-fat inventories and too much debt.

We've had about 9 months of consumption, with about 1 month's worth of production. We still have to sop up the excess inventories for about another 6 months, and gradually re-tool some battered industries.

As for what we produce? Well, in LA, it's the entertainment industry, light manufacturing (particularly in Green Tech) and a growing biotech industry. The latter is why there is so much industrial espionage (particularly from China) taking up the FBI's time...

yoski said...

Dr. Huxtable,
Is not as far of the mark as most seem to think. I see the same in my neck of the market (Miami).
Official inventory decline of MLS listings, prices rising a bit. You don't find the fire sale price you found in January - March.
I also noticed a lot of empty & abandoned houses that are not on the market. I run with my dog about 3 miles everyday, different routes, so I have a pretty decent idea of what's going on in the 'hood. Me thinks banks are holding back foreclosed inventory to not further depress prices.
Also the $8K tax credit for 1st time buyers helps. With some leverage (10:1) this can be turned into $80K of purchasing power. So yes prices are probably going up right now. Of course all this actually does is create the next generation of defaults as prices will continue their decline once this ridiculous program runs out. But not to worry, congress is already working on a $15K tax credit program for all buyers (no income or prior ownership restrictions). This can be turned into $150K buying power using the same 10:1 leverage and no money down.
On the long run, re-inflating a failed Ponzi scheme is probably not a wise idea, but in the short term it seems to work by luring in the greedy, the foolish, the next generation of suckers.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

If you would come home you will better understand.

RayNLA

Anonymous said...

Looks like you're backtracking now Keith!

Dr. Huxtable said...

DNY & Anonymous:

No joke. Since Memorial Day weekend SFR Real Estate priced <$400k has been on a tear. Anything priced well has sold.

Just wait a couple weeks and you will see the reports but I am telling you this is no prediction; it has already happened.

We are witnessing the first real bounce in Real Estate since this free fall started.

Anonymous said...

"Mortgage rates hit 7 percent by Christmas too. Not because of the demand for cash, but to compensate for the underlying risk in home prices diving further."

He Nailed it! Except I say 8%. Then watch out, home prices sink further and further towards, well, 0.

Anonymous said...

Congratulations Keith!! I just heard the great news. Our Dear Leader Comrade Obama has pronounced you the Czar of Good Cheer and Green Shoots.

You should be very proud of yourself.

Laura'sBush said...

----KEITH!!---------


Can you please give us more information on the smuggled Japanese Bearer Bonds story?!!!!

WHY

Is there a black out from the US Media in covering this facinating story?!!!!


http://watchingthewatchers.org/article/18160/case-134-billion-seized-bearer

Stu said...

It was indeed a very classic bear market rally, and the next leg down will be worse than the last leg down. Then we will see another classic bear market rally and so on...

We have history as a perfect guide telling us, and this current administration in Washington, that what they are doing will not help and it will actually cost more and add more pain as a result.
That little thing called interest makes it hard to have a plus on the plus side but the minuses sure add up quickly.

We will most certainly deal with massive deflation as we move forward. The recovery will only be in Government jobs and programs for the most part. Seeing as how our Government counts Government spending as part of our GDP (go figure??? How insane is that!!!) things will appear as though they are improving soon enough, but it will all be a mirage in terms of sustained growth. Until or unless new jobs are created in manufacturing for example, these filling pot hole jobs end once the hole is filled so what will we be left with?

No green shoots from where I sit in the Northeast. We are getting hammered up here!! Nothing on the horizon but state run deals and union work for the most part. Small business and the middle class are being totally left hung out to dry (see Chrysler bond holders).

Nobody is looking out for you now folks so plan accordingly. Invest very wisely and look over your shoulder always going forward.

Just saying...

Anonymous said...

"I saw panic in March, along with the first whiff of green shoots. Look where we are now vs. those days."

Your whiff of green shoots was nothing but more lies and manipulation. Remember how it all got started? The banks reported a profit as a result of receiving TARP and bailouts. Everyone knew their "profit" was bullshit, but the government, the fed and the MSM were all in on it and used it as an excuse to start manipulating the market. Little by little they came up with additional bullshit stories to create your bullshit green shoots. Then a month later, after saying they had just made billions in profit, several of the banks said they needed more money. Strange, you think?

Yeah, they manipulated the stock market up, but there has been no ORGANIC growth that has resulted in green shoots.

It's just more lies and manipulation - and, I cannot believe you are OK with it and go along with it.

Seriously, what happened to you?

Anonymous said...

Anon said;
'Certainly selling liar-loan pools as AAA securities was an honest, innocent oversight.'

Wasn’t that the Saudi owners of Citi?

Or is Angelo Mozillo and Ken Lewis a Zionist

Anonymous said...

“You’re going to see Republicans in the coming days bringing forward policies for health care reform,”

Where were you the last 10 or 15 years?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Aqua said...

Buh buh but.

What will the hateful parasites do if things are OK and they cant blame their misery on the woooo scaaary ‘Zionist bankers’?

June 15, 2009 6:52 PM

Why do you Jews have to constantly (just like the Blacks) remind us about how bad you have it? If it's so bad in this country, then go back to Israel. And please, don't call me a racist. Because I am not. I just get bugged when Jews and Blacks want to constantly tell America is racist, anti-Semitic, etc....

Anonymous said...

Blogger Dr. Huxtable said...

I am telling you, housing priced < $400k, especially housing <$300k, is booming in sales right now, booming.

Everyday more homes go Pending than are listed; i.e., decrease in inventory happening right now.

It has already happened; the numbers have just not been reported yet by the NAR through the media.

35%+ increase in sales YOY. Possible 5%+ increase in prices.

Just wait another week until the headlines hit.

June 15, 2009 9:41 PM

I agree with you. Here in sunny California, the real estate market is turning around. Homes in the 300K to 550K are finally selling. People are buying homes and consumer spending is increasing. It's possible for us to see 5% increase in prices. The doom and gloom has ended and now it's time for the boom time to come back. Happy days are here again!!!!!!!!

The world is square said...

Anon said:
'Certainly selling liar-loan pools as AAA securities was an honest, innocent oversight.'
*

Sit down when you read this.

I have a shocking and amazing yet a simple fact for ya.

Note: A brain larger then a poppy seed required to understand the following


*
*
*

BANKERS AREN’T ZIONIST
AND
ZIONIST AREN'T BANKERS

*
*
*
Difficult to understand?
I know;
it could shatter your entire twisted belief system.

After all is it possible that the poor Zionist were some of the ones who purchased liar-loan pools believing them to be AAA securities and were the ones stuck holding the bag, and lost there lifetime savings?

It is simply baffling how gullible some are.

Miss Goldbug said...

Keith, What happened? Not so sure now we are in a legit recovery?

Are the "green shoots" shriveling??

It hath been told!!

Miss Goldbug said...

Charles said:"Draw an L with a pencil and put it under a microscope and your sure to see a V or a W or a VL...

But zoom out and it's just a big fat L!"



Absolutely!

casey said...

I have green shits after today.I lost 50,000 going long.

Mike Hunt said...

Keefer,

According to the MSM we were just in a bear market rally, see the link:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Bear-Market-Never-tsmp-15528529.html;_ylt=AqlWeYg5OIXAGbgwvUFuP7y7YWsA?sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

From this article:

"In our view, we are currently seeing a typical bear market rally. In the last bear market that started in March 2000, there was a rally late in the year going into January 2001. Many high-profile analysts proclaimed it to be the start of the new bull market and advised "loading up the truck." We gave a new sell signal late in January 2001. That was right on target. And that's when the bear market really got serious.

In early March this year, when we called the exact day of the bottom, we said the rally would go into late summer but it would be very volatile. We also said that it would be a bear market rally. We don't have a crystal ball, but we depend on our indicators to give us the clues as to the top. If we are right, this could turn into a painful trap for the bulls. It would present another great opportunity to sell short at the top. "


Still seeing Green shoots Keith? Or were you sucked in as well?

Are you getting ready to pivot yet?

-Mike

Anonymous said...

.



How's that 'Hope and Change' werkin out for ya???



.

Anonymous said...

Green shoots… Ha ha ha ha, now that was funny!!!

I’m posting some clips from Gerald Celente. Take 16 minutes out of your busy day and watch both clips, the man knows what he’s talking about and yep, you guessed it, … he’s predicting doom and gloom with tax revolts around the corner.

Part 1 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCIpquSnMR0
Part 2 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1_eB05lgmU

If your busy day doesn’t let you listen to sanity and your wondering what’s on the boob tube, then at least watch the second clip, particularly at:

1:40 to 1:50 minutes in

"...its going to look like the so called green shoots of prosparity will be sprouting forth, but they'll never flower..."

There are also a lot of good points at 4 min in and 6 min into the second clip. This is a notable statement:

6:41 to 6:51 minutes in

"...the Wall Street gang has hijacked Washington in broad daylight. Look at the names, look at the people, follow the money, its right in front of us."

-Silly Monkey

Sir Harold said...

the govt is going to raze 40% of the empty homes in the US

when that happens real estate will skyrocket, because there will be no real estate left to buy

Anonymous said...

Speaking in New York on Monday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the regulatory overhaul will eliminate "gaps" in the financial system that encouraged risky behavior leading up to the meltdown.

"We had a financial system that was fundamentally too unstable and fragile, and it did a bad job of basic protection of consumers and investors," Geithner said..."

Are you SHITTING me?

FBI warned, SEC sat on their thumbs, Attorney General jacked himself off protecting us against terror that could have what;

Done ANYWHERE NEAR the damage they allowed to occur?

A more cynical person might marvel at how well this whole plan is going.

Far. From. Coincidence.

never_forget_y2k said...

Been closing out profits. I've more than recovered last years losses thanks to taking on more and more risk as we went down and down and riding the rebound. Not a strategy for the feint of heart. I had to reduce exposure so I can still sleep at night if we crater again.

Anonymous said...

Dr. Huxtable,

I live in Tampa and just the opposite is occuring here. I have new listings e-mailed to me daily and I'm seeing not only a continuation of declining prices, but yet another flood of foreclosure and short sales hitting the market. Many "sale pending" listings are coming back to market as buyers either didn't qualify, the short sale didn't get approved, or the buyer bailed because he/she gave up waiting. And let's not forget that mortgage rates have recently spiked - not good news for the housing market.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another 20% down from here. Nothing goes straight up and nothing goes straight down. The recent bump up in your area may be temporary at best. We're being fooled again from a deluge of media and Government misinformation. Don't believe it and don't get sucked in again like most people did in 2007. In many ways it feels like 2007 all over again.

yoski said...

Silly Monkey:
"I’m posting some clips from Gerald Celente. Take 16 minutes out of your busy day and watch both clips, the man knows what he’s talking about and yep, you guessed it, … he’s predicting doom and gloom with tax revolts around the corner.

Part 1 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCIpquSnMR0
Part 2 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1_eB05lgmU
"
Spot on, good comment. The current path we're on will end in utter catastrophe. The only uncertainty is the exact timeline. It could go on for another election cycle past 2012, it could also blow up tomorrow. 13% of GDP deficits can't be sustained for very long without something going seriously wrong.

Dr. Huxtable said...

Anonymous said...
"Dr. Huxtable,
I live in Tampa and just the opposite is occurring here."

Actually anonymous, that is exactly where I live and where I am seeing this increased buying; Tampa.

Pending contracts are not falling out and going back to market. Short sales and foreclosures are not increasing on the market; they are gone. Anything that was a bargain has sold.

Houses that were selling for let's say for $200k in February 2009 are now selling for $240k.

This is no prediction; this is fact. I make my living in this business and following this obsessively daily like no one else. As a result I continue to make a lot of money. So this is not some educated guess. This is the market; like it or not.

Again, this is on home priced <$400k, specifically <$300k.

Stu said...

All this talk about lower end homes selling in CA, AZ, FL, and NV are mostly investors and speculators. The result is that many of these purchases will just be future inventory that will come back onto the market. Some first time buyers indeed but they are not and typically rarely make up much more than 10%-15% of the market.

We are seeing folks buy into a recovery that doesn't exist and when the next leg down finishes many of these buyers will find themselves defaulting as well. There are no buyers at any cost to chew into the over supply of inventory. Foreclosure moratoriums are not helping matters as they actually serve to depress prices further because they create a huge supply all at once as soon as the moratorium ends. This causes massive defaults and price plunges as a result.

Green shoots do not result in a depressed economy, but the illusion may such as a misleading housing recovery that is being experienced right now or Government sponsored jobs at tax payer’s expense. The bill will come due for these jobs and without real jobs to support us after the charade is over what do we do for an encore? Green shoots occur during times of promise from investments by companies in new technologies and by emerging markets creating demand. We have little optimism and not much investment going on in the private sector. We have no emerging markets to speak of and very little demand from anywhere you choose to look.

Nothing to see here… you can move along now!!!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Anonymous Aqua said...

Buh buh but.

What will the hateful parasites do if things are OK and they cant blame their misery on the woooo scaaary ‘Zionist bankers’?

June 15, 2009 6:52 PM

Why do you Jews have to constantly (just like the Blacks) remind us about how bad you have it? If it's so bad in this country, then go back to Israel. And please, don't call me a racist. Because I am not. I just get bugged when Jews and Blacks want to constantly tell America is racist, anti-Semitic, etc....

--------------------------------------

So let me guess...

You have a problem with the truth!

RayNLA

RobertM said...

You're still too early Keith
The stock market has had an eye-catching rally. Everyone is talking about the S&P 500 gaining 40% since the March 6 low. But we have to put that into perspective. The index dropped 46% from the October 2007 top to the March low. Just to get back to the level of October 2007, it needs almost a 100% gain. So far, it is quite short of that. In fact, I believe it will take a decade or much longer to get back to the 2007 top.

During the Great Depression, the first phase of the bear market ended in 1930. Then the Dow Jones Industrials rallied 51%. But after that, the Dow plunged another 64% into the 1932 low.

Miss Goldbug said...

Anon said:"Remember how it all got started? The banks reported a profit as a result of receiving TARP and bailouts. Everyone knew their "profit" was bullshit, but the government, the fed and the MSM were all in on it and used it as an excuse to start manipulating the market. Little by little they came up with additional bullshit stories to create your bullshit green shoots."


Thanks. I wondered how the propaganda buzz word "green shoots" got its start.

gutless and lazy said...

BINGO!!
We have a winner!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31385700

FINALLY, even brain dead CNBC gets it !!!!

Anonymous said...

Dr. Huxtable, you said "Short sales and foreclosures are not increasing on the market; they are gone."

Obviously we're seeing two different things. I have a whole inbox of listings from last week full of short sales and preforeclosures in Tampa, many are from previous "pending".

Prices are definitely coming down from what they were only 3 months ago. I know this as I'm an active buyer and believe me there is no shortage here of real estate.

I have to wonder if you're a realtor trying to pump this market? You make statements that are obviously not all what I'm seeing as a buyer. You also talk about homes priced over $200,000 but from what I'm seeing first hand the bulk of activity are homes selling under $200,000 in Tampa. I've seen many many homes that were selling mid to upper $200,000's two years ago now listing at $120,000 to $150,000. There are bargains galore and it keeps getting better.

Also, I believe most first time buyers have now taken advantage of the $8,000 credit, and with interest rates spiking I'm wondering where future sales will come from??

Another 20% down in prices seems likely to me, based on what I'm experiencing.

Anonymous said...

Have you guys seen this "The American Empire is Bankrupt"? Is this legit? If so, we're in big trouble:

http://www.truthdig.com/report/print/20090614_the_american_empire_is_bankrupt

Dr. Huxtable said...

Anonymous...

No, I am not a realtor pumping the market. I don't think pumping on Keith's blog would change the United States housing market direction or dup that one buyer on Keith’s blog into somehow benefiting myself.

I am just sharing my expertise and observations with everyone here, take it as you will. But I am right.

Perhaps you are looking at condos or townhouses in ghost town exurbs? I am talking about SFR in zips that are not overbuilt in the exurbs. Real neighborhoods and established suburbs that people want to live in.

If you are a buyer I would suggest waiting until Nov/Dec of this year to buy after the spring fever has wained. Hopefully there will be some new bargains then.