June 8, 2009

Jim Rogers on why not to short the market, as it soars in US dollar terms as the dollar falls




17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Listen to Jim Rogers. He is actually an analyst not a bullshit artist.

DMP

Randy said...

Keefer,

What will banks do with fixed mortgage rates?

Say my monthly mortgage payment is $1000.00
and the dollar collapses,
How can the bank survive with receiving a monthly payment that has the purchasing power to pay for a gallon of milk?

Will they break the agreed fixed rate contract?

Randy said...

Queef,

You do understand that if the American dollar collapses under Obamas watch, we are looking at the last Black president in the US.

People can argue till they’re blue in the face that Obama was dealt a bad hand of cards.

Remember, he knew what he was getting himself into, and promised change for the better.

So the question is, now that he’s in charge are his policies Changing things for the better?

If a persons pay check in US dollars will only be enough to buy a can soup after the big changes made by Obama, (anyone can finish this sentence)

Anonymous said...

Rogers, like every other big investor, is scared shitless because he can't keep an eye on or bribe all of them. There are no real markets for investments anymore, just casinos where insiders and government officials play their games and the little guys get ripped. Look at the current tug of war over the fate of the USD. Who in their right mind would risk money, long or short, while this carnival goes on? There are no rules in this game anymore.

Anonymous said...

www.itulip.com has a great hypothetical conversation between turbo tim and a chinese central banker.

check it out keith.

Anonymous said...

i wish i could read between the lines and figure out what's he really saying.

Mammoth said...

"How can the bank survive with receiving a monthly payment that has the purchasing power to pay for a gallon of milk?"
------------------------
How can YOU survive if hyperinflation hits, but your pay does not rise commensurately?

This is what happened in Russia in the early 1990's. Anyone think it can't happen here?

-Mammoth

Anonymous said...

New York Times - Questions for Obama (and Keith).


-Gonzo

Anonymous said...

This is what happened in Russia in the early 1990's. Anyone think it can't happen here?.


Of course it can happen here. It is happening here. The USA is now ruled by a corrupt financial oligarchy. US corruption is orders of magnitude greater than what was going on in Russia.

Losing $350 billion has become passe:

Elizabeth Warren and Bill Maher Laugh and Laugh about $350 billion in missing taxpayer dollars (and the stupid sheeple audience laugh right along with them).


What's $350 billion when the Department of Defense can "lose" $2.3 trillion with barely a whimper?

Rumsfeld and the Pentagon's Missing $2.3 trillions.


And what's the amount that has been blown already by Bush-Paulson-Bernanke-Obama's "stimulus" and economic rescue plans? Anyone got a hard figure? All I know is that it is in the tens of trillions!

To make it clear. It doesn't matter what side of the fence you're on. Both parties serve the banks and the military industrial complex. Why wouldn't they? They don't get any financial support from the average schmo on the street and the average schmo is so dumbed down and pig ignorant in America that they will laugh with Bill Maher when he tells them they've been ripped of to the tune of hundreds of billions!

Ha ha ha ha! It's so funny! That's your jobs, your livelihoods, your financial security you stupid f*ckwads!!

Sheeesh!

-Gonzo

Randy said...

Mammoth said:
‘How can YOU survive if hyperinflation hits, but your pay does not rise commensurately?’

Lets assume I have little cash and lots of commodities that people need, like food.

Like yourself, I also have land and a veggie garden, berries and fruit trees, I have a lake with fish. Etc.

I own rental properties too, but not sure if my tenants would be able to afford rent if ther pay check only covers 1 meal.

Anonymous said...

"i wish i could read between the lines and figure out what's he really saying."

The US, Brits, Israel and the rest of the West are a bunch of shysters that cannot be trusted. You are better off taking your ball home with you than playing in their BS rigged game.

No matter what they do, their their house of cards will be coming down. When it does, people will still need food and energy. So, put your money in that now, (which will make me even more money because I bought mine a bunch of years back).

The US and the West is dead and the rest of the world knows it - they are just trying to figure out how decouple without causing too much turmoil.

vanilla ice said...

The Dow looks like the Grand Canyon today, making up all its losses in the final hour.

And yields on mortgage bonds are at six month highs. This despite the Fed buying $26 billion more toxic housing sludge from Fannie and Freddie last week.

Ha ha!

JaneZ said...

gonzo said...
the average schmo is so dumbed down and pig ignorant in America that they will laugh with Bill Maher when he tells them they've been ripped of to the tune of hundreds of billions!

-------------------------

We make it real hard to feel sorry for us don't we?

Andrew from Russia said...


How can YOU survive if hyperinflation hits, but your pay does not rise commensurately?
This is what happened in Russia in the early 1990's. Anyone think it can't happen here?


This is not the way it happened in Russia. What happened in Russia was that, through late 1991/early 1992, SOME prices and SOME wages were still fixed at the rigid Soviet rates (the last meaningful revision of centrally-set prices coming April 1991 IIRC) while the money supply exploded, and it was that coexistence of the moribund Soviet pricing mechanism with a nascent market one that led to ridiculous distortions whereby prices for similar goods could differ by certain orders of magnitude (1 kg sausage = 150 kg biscuits).
This was a quirk of the "transition period", not a feature of hyperinflation per se, and clearly not sustainable - simple arbitrage would fix that.
And the primary reason for subsequent wage increases not being commensurate to sustain the 1980s levels of consumption was that the Soviet production structure broke down. Hyperinflationary mayhem may play some role too, but the overall post-Soviet state of utter FUBAR is a better explanation.

Fun Fun Fun said...

Randy,

With a fixed rate mortgage you keep paying the $1000/month and paying $5000 for the stamp on the envelope.

If the bank has too many on their books they'll fail and your note gets sold to someone else for the price of a gallon of milk.

Once it's low enough you just pay it all off in one go, not worth having the check that won't buy a gummy bear getting lost in the mail and a foreclosure arriving ten seconds later

Paul E. Math said...

I'm actually not shorting the market either.

In the fall, all I did was short: After the market rallied I would buy some SCC(ultra short consumer services). When the market inevitably fell my SCC would rise and I would sell for a gain. I did this about 5 times, each time for a gain.

I'm glad I stopped because I would be screwed right now. I don't even remember why I stopped - just got scared, I guess, didn't want to push my luck.

Mind you, my portfolio has dropped almost 5% in the last week. Significantly more than a month's take-home. I'm not exactly feeling like a genius.

But my finger is still not resting on the 'sell' button. I still see gold, ag and energy rising.

And my speculative battery-makers should benefit from multiple sources including rising energy prices, stimulus grants and the transition to alternative energy sources.

Disgruntled Baby Boomer said...

If Americans are exposed to $100 per gallon gas or $50 for a bag of cookies, maybe we will wake up and finally revolt over the BS two party system we have in this country. Americans are so meek when it comes to putting up with the political BS that the politicians run rough shod over all constituents. Unlike France or the UK/ Canada systems where they throw out the politician's asses out of office if they piss off the public, we stay complacent until election day. The two party's know hyperinflation will end the two party rule as it exists and will do anything to prevent it. What kind of lemmings are we where we admire Tiamenin square protesters, yet we let our own politicians screw us over IN PUBLIC on CSPAN with our full knowledge. Hundreds of years from now, the current generations will probably be known as the ultimate gulible assholes of all time.