August 21, 2009

63 comments:

Randy said...

Keefer,

Nice to see ya sneak an occasional peek.

I’m torn… bought a bunch of TIPS a little over a year ago, got hammered..
Checked today and am back to the value of when I got them..

Should I hold on for the eventual Inflation?
Or will deflation hang around for a loooong time?

Randy said...

Something else I would like to share with you fellow Sashers..

A large beautiful parcel of land that I own mostly as a backup plan incase fiat currency hits the sack, is now in the process of being dedicated as part of a “conservation district” by an inbred small town planning and zoning board of thugs, with no financial or tax incentives..

Dunno if I should go to war for it or let it be since eventually they will have to provide some sort of tax incentive????????

Any advice on successfully challenging these small time goons would be greatly appreciated..

Anonymous said...

The word that many wish they did two years ago.

The word that some did two years ago.

RayNLA

casey said...

What a bunch of morons people are buying into this total suckers rally rigged by wall street pros.Sell into this strength.

Anonymous said...

Wow... I haven't checked on here in a while, but I had to take a peek just in case you posted something on the stock market or this media hyped up existing home sales number. I had this weird feeling, that you might want to say something about the madness.

And BAM... there it was... my confirmation... SELL!

SELL! SELL! SELL!

The next down leg of the crash should begin next week.

ASIA should start it all off on Sunday night.

White house waits till 4pm Friday to announce that it is adding another 2 Trillion to the deficit.
I mean come on...
this has been another mini-bubble.

vanilla ice said...

Buy, sell, buy?! Loopdy doopdy fruit loops on a roller coaster. What are we supposed to do now?

All I know is the Federal Reserve is a criminal organization. End the Fed

Anonymous said...

Didn't HPer warn of the coming crisis back in 2006.

What really changed, if regulators do not have policies in place to stop speculators and hedge funds from taking advantage loop holes in the system.

It is 2009 and many of the pattern from 2007 are repeating it self.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-
ticker/article/309299/No-Remorse-
No-Regret-CEOs-Still-in-Denial-
Two-Years-
into-Crisis?tickers=XLF,FAS,FAZ,BAC,JPM,SKF,MS

No Remorse, No Regret: CEOs Still in Denial Two Years into Crisis

http://www.businessinsider.com
/ex-countrywide-execs-pennymac-
files-for-an-ipo-2009-5

Ex-Countrywide Exec's PennyMac Files For An IPO

PennyMac, the mortgage vulture founded by Angelo Mozilo #2 Stanford Kurland, has filed for a $750 million NYSE IPO and would like to trade under the ticker "PMT".

http://www.marketskeptics.com
/2009/06/dark-pools-and-insider-
trading-growing.html

Dark pools owned by brokers and large market makers accounted for 70 percent of all dark U.S. equity volume in April, up from 64 percent in December and from 58 percent a year earlieraccording to Rosenblatt Securities, a widely referenced agency broker that tracks 18 dark pools.

Psycho said...

This is going to get ugly fast.

Devestment said...

Hell Yes! Sell!
The big wave of sub-prime pick your pament exotic loan reset foreclosures is still on the horizon.
6800 DOW JONES, here we come again!

Bukko_in_Australia said...

Whaaaat, you mean "green shoots" is over? The Obomba money bomb has done what it's gonna do? Time to be a bear again?

I concede that you were right about the MOABO and not being a perma-bear. Your timing was not to-the-day, but your instincts were right. The sad and scary thing is, you're almost certainly right about "SELL" now, if maybe a touch premature. Which means it's gonna get hairy soon.

And that would matter to me if I was a trader, flipping stocks like some people used to flip houses. (Which, of course, they were doing by treating houses like they were stocks.) I'm not interested in making a bigger pile, though, just in hanging onto the pile I've got and living a decent life, while helping humanity as much as I can.

Who needs to die with the most toys? I want to die after having had the most fun in life!

Anonymous said...

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/is-stock-market-still-a-chumps-game.aspx

Psycho said...

Obama Panic! "there’s a growing sense among progressives that they have, as my colleague Frank Rich suggests, been punked."

http://tinyurl.com/l62vbc

Andrew from Russia said...

SOLD OUT! :) This button is not working anymore unless you mean "sell short".

Anonymous said...

Everyone have your guns ready, ammo, food supplies! This is the real thing.

The climax of an economic financial system is in the horizon, and it is fast approaching!

keith said...

I'm liking this version of the blog better - only the hardcore HP'ers / S&A'ers are left.

In other words, the idiots are gone.

Right?

Meanwhile, on this SELL thing, it's a hunch. Something doesn't feel right. Too far too fast. Insiders dumping. Risk/reward is no longer beneficial.

I'm stepping out of the casino until November. Right or wrong.

Psycho said...

Market timing is difficult but I’m looking to buy some cheap puts. This correction / continuation will probably be quite violent and the put premiums will increase rapidly. You buying any puts Keith?

Mitesh Damania said...

I'm liking this version of the blog better - only the hardcore HP'ers / S&A'ers are left.

In other words, the idiots are gone.


I'm still here

JAWS said...

Buy, buy, buy is what I'm seeing in Las Vegas. Even the background chatter I hear is about what a great house some lune got at such a great price and how much land they got with it. I don't see what there is to brag about with "land" in Las Vegas. It's just sand and rocks with a few weeds. I think it's, here we go again. Lenders are doing nothing-down and seller paying costs like it's 2005.

Sell, sell, sell sounds to be about the stock market. I've just been letting it ride. Maybe now's the time to at least move it to a money market. The rise didn't make a lick of sense but who can argue with increase after increase.

Hope this blog returns. I've been having real separation pangs.

Prisoner No. 6 said...

Sell outta the US market. Maintain positions in LatAm and Asian markets. Brazil's economy is doing pretty good (despite Lula bouncing around like a beachball), and China & India are still doing what strong healthy economies do - produce products that people want to buy.

Not so much here in the U.S., it seems.

big n rich said...

were in anew bull market my friends.Grab your ankles and meet goldman sachs.I feel this company is the most corrupt on earth.

Psycho said...

We won’t be in a new bull market until the bear market ends. http://tinyurl.com/gay6v

jim said...

"Meanwhile, on this SELL thing, it's a hunch. Something doesn't feel right. Too far too fast. Insiders dumping. Risk/reward is no longer beneficial."

Keith et all:
I bought in on the downside of the s&p right before ti started this run up. Took it in the ass. Still holding, because NOTHING MAKES SENSE!

Anonymous said...

Nice to see you back in some form Keith. Felt you were dealt a raw deal by the members of his board. It was strange how people turned against you on your stance on Obama and the optimistic stance you took. Seems so far from where HP started, and the wonderful embrace of different of opinions. Enough said I guess. I hope you are wrong on this one. Over the past couple years I have learned to hate the stock market and the corruption it envisages. However I don't feel there is any other solution to increasing your money supply (not wealth) and the positive things that come from it. I guess I'm still lost and still need your, and everybodys help in navigating this ugly ugly ugly storm.

...... T

Banana Republicrat said...

Keithareeno! Welcome back to civilization (and I use that term very, very loosely!)

Personally, I can't wait for CNBC's slobbering lovefest when we breakthrough 10K. In the pandemonium Becky Quick might even ask a guest a question!

Make no mistake HeliBen et al will float this turd for a few more weeks on C4C numbers and other nonsense.

Anonymous said...

password protect this site so that only hardcore HPers remain.

Psycho said...

Obama Panic! http://tinyurl.com/ndp3qp Sentiment is going down rapidly and just wait till the American public realizes C4C will cost about 4* more per vehicle then first thought. "Edmunds.com, which is benefitting from all the extra site traffic generated by CARS nonetheless issued a report Monday saying that each car bought under the progream would actually cost the U.S. tax-payer $20,000 per vehicle sold, not the $3.500-$4,500 actually paid out."
http://tinyurl.com/ko72hf

Anonymous said...

If you run out of innovated ways of generating cash flow (asking FHA to extend LTV from 105% to 125% to make fees on a new loan) and if your investments are not generating the cash you expected, will you need to sell assets (homes, loans, MBS bonds,etc) in order to maintain your Tier 1 capital.

What if you have no assets left to sell then will your bank go into the FDIC failed bank list

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

Mitesh Damania said...

*****HILARIOUS*****
Charlie and Danny have fun with the police state at the Canary Wharf, UK.

http://www.askbutwhy.com/2009/08/charlie-and-danny-at-canary-wharf-uk.html

Mark in San Diego said...

The world seems to be placing its bets on China to pull us through. . .I have my doubts about their statistics and their ability to turn themselves into a consumer economy. . .the US consumer is outa cash - ready, willing, but unable. No credit, no HELOCS, no savings. I also have a bad feeling, that this big rally has been rigged - right - insiders selling like mad!

Mike Hunt said...

Hey Keefer,

Do you think Obama will give the sell signal the same way he gave the buy signal for stocks back in March?

Do you think SKF will go gangbusters again the way it did last year?

-Mike

les said...

I agree, "Sell."

Too much talk of a crash coming soon.

Bukko_in_Australia said...

New comments approved almost every day? That tells me someone is back in Old Blighty with regular access to a glowing tube. The travelers amongst us hope for an update about "What I did on my summer holiday in ex-commieland."

I'm liking this version of the blog better - only the hardcore HP'ers / S&A'ers are left.

Sometimes I feel abashed that I mouth off so much on your blog, and generate a bit of light and heat, since I never participated in the HP days. It wasn't my thing then. I wonder whether it's appropriate to be a loudmouth interloper. But somebody has to fill the role of leftist provocateur. Thanks for letting me play the game!

You'll get the nut cases back eventually, or at least similar personality types. You seem to attract them disproportionately. You ever wonder why that is -- people who hate what you say, but keep reading you? I reckon it's because you're a contrarian, and you draw contrary types, but they're also contrary to YOU. The ones who consistently castigate you strike me as the same as people who are vocally anti-gay as a way of denying the homosexual instincts they try to suppress.

They like you, they really, really like you! But that makes them feel all gay inside. So they have to say they hate you...

ATE-UP said...

Mitesh: That was funny! I am still here too! :)

Angry Leprechaun said...

"Meanwhile, on this SELL thing, it's a hunch. Something doesn't feel right. Too far too fast. Insiders dumping. Risk/reward is no longer beneficial."

This is how I have felt all along. Reinvesting my money back into the the family farm has paid off. With my profit sharing this year I am going more heavily into gold and foreign stocks. Over the past year instead of consuming, I have been down grading life where ever possible, and amazing enough I am still living a great life. I have cut expenses in my houshold by about 1000 dollars a month. That is an exrta ounce of gold a month.

BTW! This crazy is not going anywhere Keith!

Anonymous said...

In other words, the idiots are gone.

"I'm still here."

---

lol, you took the words out of my mouth. Hiya Keith.

I'm mostly in bond funds (moved from equity funds in early june) and cash right now. A small position in asian index funds (which i will probably convert to MM in the next 4 weeks). After that I am just holding in cash/MM/bonds waiting for the next substantial move down to move into stocks and gold again.

Read in the newspaper today that SS checks will not be getting COLA for the next 2 years... ! Deflationary, much?

SeattleMoose said...

My instincts say "sell", but quite frankly I NEVER would have predicted the extent of the bull run we have had this spring/summer.

It flies in the face of logic and smells like manipulation. But yea, probably time to get out. The fundamentals are just not there and in fact things are worse now than when the runup started.

Look for the H1N1 to continue to be the BIG DIVERSION and will keep people scared and on the verge of panic so they don't dwell on how they have been ripped off by the financial mafia (FED, Goldman Sachs, etc.)

You can bet the financial mafia insiders bought the stock of flu vaccine companies long before their MSM puppets were told to break the BIG STORY. A day does not go by without the MSM playing the "flu is gonna getcha" fear card. OH GOD WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!

And just by coincidence this year you are being told get 3 flu shots.

Total and complete manipulation thru fear.

Anonymous said...

It's optimistic out there.

Too optimistic.

-Ima Greenshoot

Dr. Huxtable said...

The stock market is a total scam.

When did it reach its all time high? Ans: Oct 2007

When did the recession/depression 'officially' begin? Ans: Dec 2007

"The market is forward looking 6-12 months". What a total joke.


All gains from 2002-2007 were fed by a credit binge. That private debt has now been socialized and is public debt. Nothing left to fuel a 70% of the GDP through consumer credit binging. No way this stock market reflects the reality we are in.

vanilla ice said...

Obama's reappointing Berananke. Stock and bond markets have a gun to Obama's head. Seriously.

FuturisticDragon said...

Greg Swann Alert:

This reverse migration is what Phoenix broker Greg Swann was betting on when he moved his real-estate firm, Bloodhound Realty, to a neighborhood closer to Phoenix. Although the whole Phoenix market is suffering due to a housing glut, he expects demand to pick up first in those communities closer in. "We anticipate that this is where people will downsize to," he says, as well as the active senior communities in the surrounding areas.

http://tinyurl.com/llmyc6

Lost Cause said...

What is the sound of one shoe dropping?

Bukko_in_Australia said...

You probably saw this already, the "Hitler as real estate flipper" parody. It's from November 2008, after all. I came across it on a blog that was snarking about how Hitler is as big a starcorpse now as Michael Jackson is. It looks like something you woulda made.

Mike said...

In response to the inflation-deflation issue, I think that the US govt has committed to easy money policies to try to prevent deflation at all costs, and this does not come without many inflationary consequences. As such I feel that one of the few ways for the average person to protect themselves from currency debasement is to invest in gold related assets. Here is a good discussion on the prospects for the gold price based on the government's grave mismanagement of the economy.

Janus said...

Hi,
Nice to see you back Keith.
I m thinking the same thing: SALE! the bounce back is too big too fast. On the other hand since our governments cook the books lately it is hard to predict. If they keep pumping cash in the system the whole things can ever blow or growth. Even the best academic economics are so clueless that they end up in a cat fight when they try to address the problem...

Professor Paul Krugman at war with Niall Ferguson over inflation, http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6806419.ece

casey said...

Is this what a bull market looks like?I'm going all in bitches.Just bought 100000 shares of fannie mae.I'm going to double my money why you sit around and bitch because you missed this bull market.

g_squared said...

keeferino!

i've been thinking of getting out soon, you've inspired me to just sell today.
come back soon!

Pay Lay Ale said...

Hey Keith, Hussein is renominating Helicopter Ben to another term. How's that hope and change working out for you?

Devestment said...

There is one strategy that helped fuel a bubble in the Reagan administration. That was that after a long protracted deflation of prices, interest rates went up causing an affordability panic. This created short term demand and inflated prices in 1986/7/8

drunkard said...

I think things are different this time.My money guru told me to go all in.I told him to kiss my hairy @ss and find someone else to screw over.

I'm glad people are giving more money to goldman so they can have a xmas bonus.

Ross said...

I am still here too and I won't clam up as long as there is a forum.

My boss all but asked me to clam up about the deteriorating conditions at my company. I told him no dice.

Some people need to say what everyone else is thinking.

Either way, keep up the good work Keith, oh Keith, wherever you are.

newbie said...

Are we in a new bull market?I want to invest but scarred shitless right now.My father told me to stay away from the stock market because it is rigged by the big boys.Any suggestions?Gold does not look good because of all the cash4gold commercials tells me it is in a bubble.

Angry Leprechaun said...

HAHAHAHAHAHAH! This is all too funny!

Where is the "give me cheese" guy?

Anonymous said...

"...you sit around and bitch because you missed this bull market..."

Not at all, Sir.

We lost half our money DJIA 14k>7, because we never sold.

So we are up nearly 50% from the bottom; HOO-RAH!

Still down 30% from the top; we will get that money back soon?

Anonymous said...

They say that unemployment is a lagging indicator to the economy, but isn't unemployment a leading indicator to foreclosure.

http://layofftracker.blogspot.com/

ContraryRiches said...

Keith, welcome back..it seems that Robert Kiyosaki echoes your sentiments in a very well written article he posted earlier today.

http://contraryriches.blogspot.com/2009/08/preparing-for-worst-or-expecting-best.html

InvestorinPA

Anonymous said...

Has the major job cut stopped.

http://localtechwire.com/business
/local_tech_wire/news/blogpost
/5856657/

After 9,300 jobs cut does Lee Conrad still believes IBM will cut up to 16,000 jobs by year end.

http://www.reuters.com/article
/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews
/idUSN2536354020090826

Postal Service seeks 30,000 job cuts

http://news.prnewswire.com
/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&
STORY=/www/story/08-24-2009
/0005081682&EDATE=

As Many As 50,000 California Jobs Are at Stake if NUMMI Plant Closes

Anonymous said...

Will unemployment have an effect on foreclosure, so why is unemployment called a lagging indicator.

http://www.edd.ca.gov
/jobs_and_Training
/warn/eddwarnlo09.pdf

Anonymous said...

Funny, I sold my big gainers this morning -before seeing this site.

Feels bad right now -at least short term. I may wait for a retest of recent lows or something else

Sycophants and Amateurs said...

I knew you wouldn't go away, because you're too weak. You need that constant affirmation from the fawning and mindless mass of sycophants.

Anyway, you're wrong and your tin-foil hatter's money will rot under the mattress.

Stuck in So Pa said...

Went to an auction last week. Owner lost his job (50's, single, 19 yrs into a 30yr fixed) cannot find permanent work in his field, is moving out of state to live with relatives.

Lots of new bling going for next to nothing. When it got to the house(3 bdrm, 1 bath, 1.7 acre lot, built 1990 to FHA specs, separate garage)the high bid went up to $95000 and was declined by owner.

I talked to the (soon to be former) owner before I left and asked what he wanted for the place.

Ans: (are you ready folks?)

"Well, the place across the street, on an acre lot, with only 2bedrooms, sold for $149,000 back in March of 08, so I need to get at least $159,000 for mine." Owner went on to say he was underwater and the $95,000 wouldn't cover it.
He did say he could afford the mortgage for at least another year at present rate, just couldn't afford to live there???

Apparently the 19yrs equity meant nothing. I suspect there was an HELOC thrown in somewhere along the line. The BLING was extensive and new (and as I mentioned, sold for peanuts.)

Thank God I wasn't in the middle of swallowing my soda, I would have choked to death!

How do you tell someone "Take the $95,000 man. Take it and run (do not walk) away. Get your life back. You're going to lose the house anyway. Next year at this time, you will be wishing like HECK you had taken the $95,000."

Wish I had told him.....but I didn't!

You can't tell someone what they definitely don't want to hear.

God, this descent is going to be low and slow.

But hey, at least we've reached deniel in my area. Finally made it on the chart!

Angry Leprechaun said...

This blog wich is "The World After the Crash" needs to be renamed,"We Are Still in the Middle of the Crash and Everything if Funcking Burning Still"

Keith admit that you jumped the gun on starting this new blog with the premonmition that Obama was going to save us. He hasn't! The evidence is clear. His own reports over the pat few days is enough proof of that. We are still in the crash. Bernanke is a puppet for the rich elite and Obama has obviously been bought and paid for as well.

I think this is the real reason you walked away. You have been so blatantly wrong it is pathetic.

Miss Goldbug said...

Anyone remember stock market last Sept & Oct??

Its going down - just like last year. I wonder how long this game of pump and dump can continue? One more time...two more?? Who knows?

I'm in money markets and buying gold stocks in November...I'm hoping its the right decision. After I saw what Vangard Precious metals did for the last 9 months I dont want to miss another rally.

Anonymous said...

Still here too. I too just had a "feeling" and checked the site. Only read your blog. Don't do stocks, or real estate, but I do enjoy your blog. Glad your back.

Grace