August 28, 2009

If you're Phoenix realtor Greg Swann, who in 2006 told people to BUY BUY BUY (and had 21 reasons), this graph should just about do the trick.


Them facts, they can be pesky little things.

Karma can be a bit of a bitch too.

And gravity.

Shouldn't the commissions for expert "advice" and "guidance" be given back?

Here ya go. Like "Suzanne", one for the ages.


21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market (July 2006)

Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question, but to lurk among the BubbleBloggers and their seething commentariat is to acquire an education in a slice of America invisible from this side of the sewer gratings. Notwithstanding the idiotic economic analysis, which is really no worse than the static-market fallacies paraded as profundities in the pages of the Arizona Republic, these sites — and not just HousingPanic — are infested with a cult-like fever to inflict suffering — at second hand, to be sure — on people who are in fact guilty of nothing except failing to have drunk the BubbleBlogger KoolAde.

That’s all one. I don’t care. The whole of the last century was dominated by the bad behavior of viciously angry wretches, but look where it got them. The BubbleBloggers will someday bawl balefully in private, but they will never, ever admit that they have been very publicly very foolish. You will know and I will know and in the secret chambers of their hearts they will know they were wrong all along. But as long as you don’t hold your breath waiting for that contrite admission of error, you should be fine.

In any case, here do I compile my list of 21 really good reasons to bank on the future of the Phoenix area real estate market:

  1. The migration from the Snow Belt states to Metropolitan Phoenix has been unabated for 60 years.
  2. A similar extended migration is now occurring from the Northwestern states and Western Canada.
  3. The “installed base” of all those migrants brings a steady stream of extended family members.
  4. Proposition 13 makes moving up difficult in California; many Golden State sellers buy in the Phoenix area.
  5. Californians in pursuit of other objectives — e.g., a friendlier business climate — migrate to the Valley of the Sun.
  6. Baby Boomers will retire in droves to warmer climes — the Atlantic coast, the Gulf states and the Southwest.
  7. Among those locales, Phoenix is by far the least prone to natural disasters.
  8. Because of this, people from disaster-afflicted regions have formed a new stream of in-migration.
  9. There is a steady migration of new residents from Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries south of the border.
  10. Phoenix is a destination of choice or the second-landing city for immigrants from all over the world.
  11. While higher oil prices will put a strain on our far-flung suburbs, the greatest pain will be felt in Northern states where fuel oil or natural gas are used as heat sources; even people who don’t hate the winter will move to the Phoenix area to escape high heating bills.
  12. The Phoenix Metropolitan area is a dynamic jobs creation machine, adding tens of thousand of new jobs every year.
  13. People who have or hope to have children move here as soon as they can manage it.
  14. Compared to the areas from which many of our in-migrants are drawn, our homes are still very affordable.
  15. We build thousands more new homes every year.
  16. The Greater Phoenix area has 60 years of sustained practice at managing extreme growth — this in contrast to thrashing cities like Las Vegas.
  17. Snowbirds, politely known as Our Winter Visitors, eventually move here year-around.
  18. Our first waves of massive migration occurred after WW II; mustered out soldiers who had been stationed here came back with their families; this pattern continues among people who are posted here temporarily for various reasons.
  19. People who stay at our resorts often fall in love with the Valley of the Sun and return as soon as they are able.
  20. A significant number of active and retired professional athletes maintain homes here, in no small part because the Phoenix/Scottsdale area has…
  21. Year-around golf.

46 comments:

Lamaria said...

I have absolutely no sympathy for him or people like him. He lived high, HIGH off the hog for a very long time. Hell he probably still is, and here he is complaining about it.

Here he is lashing out at people who called him on his BS, is he projecting? :

"I know I tend to excite the most evil sentiments in people with evil minds, so they may want to take this opportunity to further their self-destruction."

When he was absolutely raking in the cash, and lashing out at detractors on a personal level, how did he live? Did he live modestly, save, refuse to use credit, pay off the home loan?

No. He was to greedy. So greedy that he actually couldn't pull back when he knew that he was paying out more than taking in.

As far as I am concerned he got to the high life illegitimately, immorally, and still managed to squander it. Hey Swann, keep attacking the bubbleblogs if it helps you sleep at night.

-Lamaria

Psycho said...

"BUY BUY BUY"... Oh yes... that is also the cry of Cramer. Who will soon be crying.

Obama Panic is coming!

Greg Swann is a Douche said...

22. It's land-locked. Oh, wait, wasn't that the reason to buy Vegas

ContraryRiches said...

Oh Keith, u had me at hello (or Goodbye Greg Swann). I'm sure he's hating that you are back. Ironically, I noticed the other day that Fox Business brought back out Mike Norman. It seems like 2006 all over again...Swannie, Norman, Schiff being mocked while sounding the alarms, and Keith posting.

Bukko_in_Australia said...

He sure showed you, didn't he, you sewergrater Bubbleblogger Koolader idioticeconomicommentator you! Do you ever send him e-mails or post comments at his blog with links to take-downs like this? I don't see you as being someone who would be modest about the in-your-face spike-the-ball-after-the-touchdown thing. Especially if you were doing it via an anonymous blog comment.

Anonymous said...

Eat shit and die, Mr. Swann. Is that bitter enough for you, Pookie?

-Smug Bastard

casey said...

I heard he was wiping asses at a rest home in phoenix somewhere.There are thousands of realtors just like him in phoenix.they start to believe their own bullshit after awhile.

Anonymous said...

I think it official now...
Keith IS BACK!! WOO HOO! Break out the champagne its Friday TO boot!
-JDF

Anonymous said...

Shall a public flogging commence?

Banana Republicrat said...

Coming this Fall, the commercial real estate collapse in HousingPANIC II: Back to Business

Good to see you back Keith, how's the book coming?

Lost Cause said...

Phoenix is as wrong as its rickety old conservative senator John Mc Cain. As much of a big loser, too.

Anonymous said...

Here is an interesting article about florida being 4th on the list of highest bank failures.
here is the link:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/sfl-bank-failures-083009,0,299010.story

It's nice to be back to somewhere I belong!

rich in fl

Psycho said...

Keep this site Obama friendly or it will be taken over!
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10320096-38.html

Obama Panic!!!!!

consultant said...

Swann was a great symbol of the NAR.

A lying SOB, who like Hitler, was in the bunker believing his sh!t until the very end.

Now we've got new baby Swanns out here, talking the same smack.

A fool and his money...

game is rigged said...

Any of you interested in AIG at 50 today?If you are let me stamp your forehead with sucker please.I guess the govt is happy you are supporting their bogus investment.Maybe that was the plan all along.Have the smart investors buy the stock so the govt can turn a profit.This stock market is no different than going to a craps table at vegas.

Anonymous said...

I am braking out the champagne , too. Keep it rolling Keith.

This is just starting. Wait until the Alt-A and 30 Year Fixed - 5 year interest only kicks in. You were right , Keith. IT'S a LOOOOOOOONG way down !!

I have completely gotten rid of ALL debt outside of the essentials , Roof over head , food , utilities , Internet and Cell Phone. I hope I keep my job , and have an Ford E150 Conversion Van , if it really does get that bad , at least I can sleep there. Get a gym membership to shower and clean up. I am honestly getting my mind set into total survival mode. IT WILL GET UGLY in a couple of years.

Let's hope not. Layoffs galore !!!

Anonymous said...

He needs a Dikipedia page

Greg is a maggot said...

Swann is just another opportunistic larva who used to burrow through sweet bubble fruit but now has switched to feces, nothing special there.

What is remarkable though is how badly he writes.

keith said...

What's remarkable is not only how ignorant he was (or corrupted by dreams of 6% he was), but his arrogance in demonstrating that ignorance.

Reminds me of Bush.

However, time moves on. And as Buffet said, we'd see who was swimming naked when the tide went out.

Anonymous said...

Kieth,

Thanks for bringing Housing Panic back!

RayNLA

no one died for my sins said...

Sashers,

This evening as the sun goes down take a moment to reflect how fortunate we all are, life may be full of challenges but ‘we’re alive to be it, see it, feel it and influence it…

Enjoy a glass of wine (or Bacardi and coke) or whatever else tickles your fancy, for there is none of these stimuli when we’re 6 ft under.

Have a Gutten Shabbos!

Sunday is around the corner and back to dumpster diving all over again…

Swanns bitch said...

Should I invest my 1million inheritance in AIG stock?I need to chase returns and get back the 2 million I just lost.Help me with some advice my friends.

Anonymous said...

Why would anyone pay him a commission?

Oh wait, they don't.

Anonymous said...

111° in Phoenix as I type this. Yep, playing golf under that scorching sun sounds like a blast.

Buddy said...

Keith, Great to have you back. Stick around. Come the days of late September and the world will start fallng apart again.

yoski said...

22. Home prices like in 2000.

WIzardofIB said...

It appears as though reasons #1 and #17 are the same reason. Does anyone else see that?

confused said...

My money guru told me we are in a new bull market.Can this be true?

Anonymous said...

Off subject comment; why do people care that Sen. Edward Kennedy died?

He drove a car off a bridge drunk, killing his female passenger and fled the scene. She is dead. But he is a Kennedy, and gets away with it. Anyone else would have been done there. No future career, no tributes. What a selfish asshole.

Anonymous said...

Just got back from Scottsdale Friday 28...live in San Diego

Did nothing but drive around and never left Scottsdale

Drive, Drive, Drive!

From south to north and back

Lots of shopping centers and restaurants...mostly High-end stuff there...

Not sure why?

Anonymous said...

#22 - You can buy Greg Swann's foreclosed house for half of what he paid

Anonymous said...

Three more banks made it on the FDIC failed Bank list.

That makes 84 so far this year

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual
/failed/banklist.html

Anonymous said...

How about the young growing professionals in the San Francisco or San Jose area who joined Bay Area investment groups back in 2004 and brought up properties outside of the bay area causing local folks to be priced out of buying a home in their home town.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com
/id/7405028/

Members of the group share strategies and leads on finding properties and get expert advice on financing from guest speakers. Most of these Californian real-estate investors are looking for investments beyond the Golden Gate.

Group member Tessie Cuy says she can buy real estate outside California for less than in her own home town. And Doug Boggs, another investment club member, says he is focusing on investments in the Sun Belt region: The southern and southwestern states of the U.S.

“Florida, Arizona and Vegas — that’s where everybody else is going too. It’s kind of like the stock market, really,” said Boggs.

Anonymous said...

Human excrement in action

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3TpfsDwr6s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pb_WHUM9plY

Dr. Huxtable said...

Keith,

Let's crank it up!

How about the USD; where are we going?

How about this fools stock rally (or is it real)?

How about housing; media and even Shiller says strong evidence to support it has bottomed?

How about the fact that nothing has been done to bring those to justice that destroyed the financial system, and nothing has been changed or put in place to prevent the next catastrophe?

How about that the US Govt is spending way more than it is bringing in in revenues? (Bernake said "we will not monetize the debt". What a joke!)

How about globalization from here and the loss of the US as the #1 global power?

And finally, how about giving us the scoop on where the hell you went!

We have so much to cover.

Anonymous said...

waaal, hey...
look at that case-shiller chart - prices are back down to the long-term trend... that can ONLY mean:

IT'S TIME TO BUY!!!

Anonymous said...

Is there a way to get a list of his victims?

keith said...

Not done traveling but have blazing fast internet now

Don't get used to this blog being back, even though I miss it. Just had a few things to cover off during America's Summer of Rage and False PromisesTM.

Anonymous said...

Got ramen?

In real estate, agent scrambles to survive

Real-estate agents have been among those hardest hit by the housing collapse.

As the entire Phoenix real-estate industry remakes itself in pursuit of a recovery, agents who once sold 10 homes a week and earned six-figure salaries now tend foreclosure properties for little more than gas money while they hope for a listing.

Brett Barry is a well-known north Phoenix agent who has gone from selling dream homes to handling evictions and open houses for foreclosure homes. He moved his office into his living room, works much longer hours for far less money but still makes his living selling homes.

"I was recently at a restaurant, and the guy serving us used to be one of my big competitors," Barry said. "It's humbling for all of us. I told him not to feel bad about being a waiter because I am basically a runner for lenders these days, dealing with many unhappy people for not much money."

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2009/08/23/20090823regroup-realtor0823.html

Anonymous said...

Is that a graph of swan's ego deflating?

Pissed in New York said...

Re Anon 1:01 who asked:
"why do people care that Sen. Edward Kennedy died?

He drove a car off a bridge drunk, killing his female passenger and fled the scene. She is dead. But he is a Kennedy, and gets away with it. Anyone else would have been done there. No future career, no tributes"

Not true. In November 1963, Laura Welch Bush ran a stop sign, plowed into her own pre-W boyfriend Michael Douglas in TX with her car and killed him... her daddy ensured there were no alcohol testing and she was charged with NOTHING, not even ticketed. Laura has avoided even commenting on it to this day because she says she is still 'traumatized'. Poor dear.

Sucks when your own rich hero is guilty of the same thing, huh?

Anonymous said...

A shmo wrote.

---Not true. In November 1963, Laura Welch Bush ran a stop sign, plowed into her own pre-W boyfriend Michael Douglas in TX with her car and killed him... her daddy ensured there were no alcohol testing and she was charged with NOTHING, not even ticketed. Laura has avoided even commenting on it to this day because she says she is still 'traumatized'. Poor dear.

Sucks when your own rich hero is guilty of the same thing, huh?---



Let's try again.

First... He married Laura Welch ( Laura Bush), a teacher and librarian, in Midland in 1977

Second...

Sigh.

Let’s review:

Laura -

– 18 years old (i.e. inexperienced driver), unknown private citizen from ordinary family
– runs stop sign
– hits another car
– young, inexperienced teenage driver of other car is killed
– Laura remains at scene
– Laura’s parents make no efforts to cover up accident or absolve her from responsibility
– Laura shows remorse
– Laura does not run for public office
– Marries into prominent political family 15 years later
– Leads life of total honor and propriety


regards

Evildoc

alex3191 said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lQtBzq7CdI
I really miss Kendra Todd :)

panicearly said...

Ofcourse, you can`t leave comments on Greg Swann`s youtube video.
lol

Anonymous said...

A hypocrite wrote:

Laura -

essentially a hapless player in tragedy and pure soul who 'Leads life of total honor and propriety'


Seems ya have the same twisted interpretation of events as her future husband did (does) with his own track record.

Rich little white girl's Daddy, the well off and connected real estate developer, quietly gets her off. No alcohol testing, no investigation after apparently the impact throws him from the car and breaks her boyfriend's neck, but there no official report was ever available.

Total honor? Ask his parents.

BTW, can't imagine what would have been done with this situation if it were Michelle Obama.

evildoc said...

----A hypocrite wrote:

Laura -

essentially a hapless player in tragedy and pure soul who 'Leads life of total honor and propriety'----

Golly, who wrote that?

hehe