And the US should be out buying up everything it can.
Especially oil.
Wars will soon be fought over commodities, even though they're being given away at fire-sale prices today.
And even though it doesn't look like it, THIS is when the serious money is being made.
Buy low, sell high, and may you live in interesting times.
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Keith, you keep saying "the US should buy commodities". What do you mean? Do you mean the government should be buying the commodities now??
The government doesn't have any freaking money dude! They are running a deficit. They're getting by on foreign credit cards. The government is broke! Kaput! It doesn't have a single red cent to it's name!!
So are you proposing that the US government should go into more debt to stockpile commodities?
This is not the role of government, Keith. What's wrong with letting private citizens make their own decisions and buying commodities? As self assured as you may be about commodities it doesn't mean you (or any other government bureaucrat) are right and you have no legal or moral authority to use taxpayer's dollars to buy commodities even if you think it would be for America's own benefit.
Sh*t dude!! Don't you realize the government is broke yet?? There is no social security trust fund. It's all been spent. It's a P.O.N.Z.I S.C.H.E.M.E!!! You know that so why are you saying the government should be buying anything. They need to be spending a whole lot less and leaving the money in the pockets of American taxpayers.
It really is THAT SIMPLE!!!
This is what they call "the Tyranny of Good Intentions".
It is simply amazeing how fast things changes.Gas was at 4.60 at the high here in sacramento, mow 1.69.Scrap metal prices have also tanked.I think copper was almost 4 bucks a pound.I bought a 1000 gallon tank o store some gas.
the prices will be even more shocking compared to the lower prices we are about to see due to deflation over the next couple of years.
people will consider themselves lucky to make the same salary in 2009 as they did in 2008. Even if they hold the exact same job in both years.
I can already see the writing on the wall at my company (I own it). No raises in 2009.
I agree there will be wage deflation in the upcoming years. I can already see the writing on the wall at my company (I don't own it, but I am the CEO with little to no accountability--thank you, my lazy board of directors). There won't be any raises in 2009 or 2010, except for tip-top management (me). In addition, there is the good possibility of a "realignment" of salaries as well. The realignment of salaries will be downward of course. To make it acceptable, I'll follow the usual corporate smoke screen of hiring an "independent" third party vendor to compare my companies' salaries with "comparative" companies. The cover story will be that I am intending to raise salaries to match those paid at our competitors. However, the vendor will shock me--absolutely shock me-- by reporting that my workers are overpaid. Oh, my, goodness me, who knew?
Useful commodities such as cattle, wheat, coffee, sugar, oranges, etc. make sense
But oil and gold?
Although oil is useful how can it be that demand for oil will ever go back to even close to were it was, when there are so many forces nipping away at it, from the global climate folks, conservationist, energy independents, alternative energy, renewable energy, etc. etc..
Amazing how people don’t get it
The get rich quick by doing nothing days are over.
Being a realtor will now require work, and you won’t get rich by simply investing in some magical gold liquid or solid.
It is a pretty safe bet that Rogers will be right. But it might take a couple years. So you need to be patient.
To a certain extent, I am following Rogers' advice. But when I'm doing it I'm making sure I have the patience to wait it out.
Sometimes I buy a stock and I know beforehand that if it drops 10% then my assumptions are wrong and I'm getting out. Not for commodities.
Commodities could drop another 10%. For oil, a drop of 10% is only another $3, something that could happen quite easily since it has already dropped $100+.
I have exposure to energy and gold via etfs. Will probably buy some DAG for exposure to commodities. Would have done it already if I weren't waiting for another negative investment to turn positive. Hoping that I'm not being too patient on something that was supposed to be a short-term thing.
I respect Jim Rogers and he is one heck of an investor (his record speaks for itself!). But I disagree with him. He is a big bull when it comes to investing in China and he is a huge bear when it comes to America. He is also stating that we will have hyper-inflation.
I think we are headed towards a deflationary spiral. We are already seeing the first few symptoms; falling or shall I say CRASHING prices in real estate and the stock market. It feels like we are in the third inning and prices still need to come way down for people to afford a home.
The next six to eighteen months will be interesting. Very interesting indeed. Those six to eighteen months will tell us if we are indeed continue onto the deflation path or perhaps inflation will come roaring back. May you live in interesting times as the aphorism goes!
Is anyone starting to like Bernie Madoff? I hope all the greedy, stupid, rich assholes who lost their money to him all jump out a friggin window. It would be a good start.
ummmm... lemmeeseeehere...
are you saying the US should buy the iron/copper/coal/oil or the mines...
if its the iron, etc. what do we do with it - store it out in the CA desert and pay CA for the land use???
that would work as a nice bailout for their deficits, huh??? think win/win I always say...
or should be buy the mines like, oh, say, the brits did with their coal industry??? happy happy joy joy there too...
Investing in ANY commodity at this time is like bungee jumping off the bridge to nowhere.
why BUY anything when we have the Imperial Jackboots to take what we need and the IMF to do the behind-the-scenes financial dirty work to squeeze the money out of them???
Thought of one more thing: the impact of ETFs.
In the past, it was not that easy for the unsophisticated speculator to get involved in commodities. Now anyone can buy an etf.
Before this year, all you really had was the Rogers commodity index - now etfs have exploded and you can create about as much or as little exposure to whichever specific commodity you like.
Us amateurs love that.
that could happen. an enlightened republican noted that the only way to make the pension scheme work was to inflate the dollar away. so people get pensions that buy nothing, ha, ha!
with deflation, anyone lucky enough to keep their job will feel like they got a raise.
Remember always that the full faith and credit of the United States government is the most valuable commodity on earth.
20 year cycle. You will see high prices again in 2025.
Buy commodities? Well I hear Twinkies have a long shelf life so stock up folks. Don't laugh. When people are starving and fighting in the streets for scraps of meat a twinkie will be a very valuable commodity. You can't eat gold or silver, but that twinkie would taste awfully good then. Same is true for canned meats like spam.
"The government doesn't have any freaking money dude! "
...except for a trillion dollar bailout for a bunch of loosers. It all depends on priorities and "our" priorities are to sustain the unsustainable. Not a particularly viable long term plan.
...besides it's not government's job to be speculating with taxpayer money, or to give taxpayer money to a bunch of thieves on Wall Street or to blow taxpayer money on some ill conceived military adventures around the world or to be funding bridges to nowhere or bailing out incompetent auto companies etc.
As long as we are in a deflationary environment commodity prices will keep plummeting. There will be a floor to be found but who knows where. Once we get back to growth (in a couple of years) then prices will shoot up.
Keep watching, waiting, calculating. There is money to be made but you have to tiptoe through a minefield first.
-Mike
gee resource grab huh keith?
i guess you are rethinking Iraq about now...
are you rethinking 911 keith...
are you?
or are you still drunk on the kool aid?
yeah 19 guys and box cutters...
uh-huh...
how bout 19 bankers and thermate?
I think we are headed towards a deflationary spiral
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Banks like deflation, it makes the loans worth more. They don't like the defaults created by deflation but they don't need to worry about that since government is picking up the tab.
So oviously banks won't be lending in deflation unless loans are guaranteed.
Soon our leaders are going to realize that this is a problem so either they will pick up every bank or simply send cheques to each household.
It's already starting slowly here in Canada. 2500$ cash back if you renovate your house. As time goes on, the cash injections will get more and more blatant!
Jim Rogers is a jackass who supports offshoring American jobs to asia.
Just leave it in the dirt, Keith. The US already has all of that stuff. You aren't suggesting that we have other countries dig it up, ship it here, and then we will store it undersgound?
What we're wittnessing is an entire collapse of our current economic system.
Our employees in government (who rarely do their jobs and should be fired) have tried every scheme to prop up our phony economy - and none have worked, except to accelerate the debt which has been placed on tax-payers backs without their choosing.
Taxation without representation - our entire constitution is nothing more than a large role of toilet paper now.
Rogers will be correct, but he's often wrong in short term ie a few years, so if you buy, be prepared for big swings down in meantime. I'm guessing even if you follow him, sine you havent done the homework like he has, you wont have the stomach to hold, and you will sell, at the end only Rogers stays rich. Do you own homework.
Yep, one day in the future commodities will be higher. How long has Jim Rogers been selling this commodity and China thing? About 10 years now? I, too, can forecast anything like that; just keep repeating the same mantra until it happens, no matter how many years it takes. Sorry but there won't be any hyperinflation if salaries remain stagnated. Most Americans are taking a pay cut or getting pink slips. One can raise the price of any commodity to the moon but no one will buy it. The American consumer is dead, got it? Go ahead, raise the price of oil and food, because nobody can afford and people hungry and heavily armed is a dangerous proposition. Remember the French revolution? Chop-chop, starting with all Wall Street and then going down to Washington. Then we can play soccer with the heads in the streets.
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