Something to think about.
So what's on Idol tonight?
January 25, 2009
There is a chance you know that we may be totally and irreversibly f*cked.
What would happen if all the money and all the stocks in the world became essentially worthless?
Something to think about.
So what's on Idol tonight?
Something to think about.
So what's on Idol tonight?
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52 comments:
When electricity and motorized vehicles came along it rendered vast amounts of capital useless.
The internet did the same.
Robotics, AI, space industry, genetic engineering, and alternative energy will do the same.
The problem has always been that the Old Guard's death throes would ruin us in the vulnerable transition.
Will Obama et. al. let that happen? Or will they put the Old Guard out to pasture?
Let's see.
Surprise!
We humans can also re-build things
after all we created our economy in the first place
I just dont see the need to break things
I banged paula abdul at the san fransisco auditions.what a hottie.she rode me so hard.
I need a stimulous check soon.cannot pay rent or feed the crumb snatcher.I am looking to turning tricks.
in 2007, i saw figures as high as 700 Trillion worth of cds's. i think there are a lot more to it keith than a mere 45 Trillion.
this is the problem that has been kicked under the rug as of late, with all of this talk of good bank, bad bank.
even if they did accomplish this bit of financial alchemy what would this do? it would immediately bankrupt the united states. how can these debts be paid? they can't. then why is it nobody wishes to tell the american people the truth? the facts are that there is no solution to this financial crisis and nobody wishes to say it. the sooner we realize this , the better off we will be. how long can this dog and pony show go on is anyone's guess.
I'm hoping the shorts get killed, markets are way out of control.
Unravel CDS
You are screwed only if you believe you are wealthier than you are. Take a good look around you. What have you invested in? If it is proxy wealth such as stocks or houses in a crowded no-where or money skemes that don't produce anything you are pretty much screwed. If you actually believed that you could be so productive for30% of you life that you could sit on your ass and consume for the rest of your life you are screwed.
If we keep our heads it's not going to be that bad. It will be like living in college when you had a ratty sofa, a part time job, a willing girlfriend with tempered expectations, and you were learning about the world. Your main modes of transportation will be a bike and a buss. Your wealth is what you will carry with in your heart and in your mind and the time you spend with your kids and your friends.
This could be cool if we keep our heads.
Don Payne
Who are the creditors in these huge & secretive CDSs? How many effectively cancel one another out? Cram down all outstanding CDS value to 5, 10 or 25 cents on the dollar. Make the monopoly players turn in their monopoly money, then put the game board under new scrutiny.
Yeah, I've come to realize that we're pretty much screwed for the next decade or so.
Off to the Laker's game...Life's too short to let this get to you.
I will bet that you will bet that I will bet that I you bet that I will bet that you will bet.....this will tank.
IMO it's not so much a matter of "What's on Idol?" as "What are my immediate needs and do I really have to worry about the world's problems when I have enough of my own?"
It's not about selfishness, it's about practicality. For all you know the world markets will not collapse but will survive after being propped up for a while. Then all your worrying and writing was a waste. Life is too short to waste worry over every little doomsday scenario. In fact I would argue that worrying isn't really living, since it involves no action.
If you remember, one of the proposals under consideration by Obama's team is nationalizing the banks. In that case, let's suppose the economy worsens, debtholders can't pay, and we actually have to pay on most of those CDSs (printed money, obviously - where else could it come from?). That's $50T being created out of thin air and going to the private sector. Sounds like hyperinflation, doesn't it?
But wait - that's not all. The CDSs are only part of the $120T in derivatives owned by US banks. We could be printing as much as $120T! Or defaulting on our debts. Either way, it's a currency collapse.
So if you hear we are nationalizing the banks, it means one thing: your savings will become worthless.
Yes, but we're all f*cked together. Maybe the democratic controlled congress should've admitted they didn't understand what was happening, listened to true experts and applied regulation. Instead they were more concerned with winning the presidency and allowed credit default swap triple under there control. Well done...
Prediction, Obama gets impeached over citizenship, Biden gives us Carter part II plus removes citizenship requirement, King Reagan's deciple Arnold becomes president. We all live happily ever after.
Arent the swaps just that? MAtched bets? So dont most of them zero each other out as they come due or whatever?
"
Prediction, Obama gets impeached over citizenship, Biden gives us Carter part II plus removes citizenship requirement, King Reagan's deciple Arnold becomes president. We all live happily ever after."
...in Canada and Australia.
Jim, welcome to the wonderful world of counter party risk.
Let's say you match a bet with me, and you win. But I'm bankrupt and I can't pay.
Got it now?
For further reading, see the failure of Lehman, and how that blew up the world financial system.
In that case, let's suppose the economy worsens, debtholders can't pay, and we actually have to pay on most of those CDSs (printed money, obviously - where else could it come from?).
Who says we have to pay? Let it collapse.
Let's say you match a bet with me, and you win. But I'm bankrupt and I can't pay.
So the winner doesn't get anything. It's not like he invested anything to being with.
Prediction, Obama gets impeached over citizenship<<<
wrong.
1. Obama was selected , not elected.
2. Obama is not a black man.
3. Obama is not a muslim.
4. Obama is not a Christian.
5. Obama is a Falasha jew.
6. Obama is supported by AIPAC.
this is all you need to know. adjust your preperations accordingly.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Who are the creditors in these huge & secretive CDSs? How many effectively cancel one another out? Cram down all outstanding CDS value to 5, 10 or 25 cents on the dollar. Make the monopoly players turn in their monopoly money, then put the game board under new scrutiny.<<<
sounds like a good idea. but can it be done? I submit to you that it can't be done or it won't be done. Either way we are the ones that will pay for this in the end. Right now, this game is going on , only because the world bank owners want it to continue. When the big boys in the big boys club decide it is time for game set match, it will happen and happen quickly. Right now, they want to ring every last dollar out of the baby boomer retirement funds and this they will do one way or the other. It is felt by them that angry americans without money are a silly, benign bunch of people who are hooked on a easy life and the bet is that they will come running and screaming to world government to help them in their time of need. too many of them think that food comes from the store and haven't the foggiest idea how to raise crops much less plant them and also receive their water supply from government sources. no, the american sheep is hooked on this life as it was and we have forgotten the lessons learned by generations that have passed. our collective memories are short and we forget easily. they are figuring that once the middle class is destroyed, the world government will be able to come in here and do as they wish with us because we are soft and we don't have the stomach to fight. are they correct? that is a reasable question to ask. is a red dawn scenerio coming. it is quite possible. i ask you. where do you think hollyweird gets the idea for some of these movies?
Most of the option swaps are in arbitrage, the same guys play both sides, there are all sorts of books on it, if you feel so enlightened.
The way to really solve this, without going into a socialistic system, is, to simply stop the bail-outs, let them go into chapter 11 or 13 or 9 and be done with it.
Liquidate their good paper to regional or local banks and just let them piss in the wind. If worse comes to worse, get out some of the dusty gold sitting in Ft. Knox and pay-it-off. I love a happy ending. Then say buh-by to the fed.
As a side note, the big O just sent a drone over to the Pakis and became a member of the "butcher a child club of america". I don't think anything is going to change, quite frankly or fredly, it's full speed ahead into a concrete wall.
Politicians are so cute when they kill widdle kiddies, and spend lots and lots of money, they just don't see things the way normal people do, sad.......my humble opinion, maybe the hot white chicks will come and worship me now, a plumber, since I don't bloody-up your kids with drone missles from on high.
Why do you want to reverse these things
http://news.postbulletin.com
/newsmanager/templates
/localnews_story.asp?z=12&a=379998
In the period 1995 to 2004, subsidies totaling $112 billion were given to the growers of just five crops -- corn, soybeans, wheat, rice and cotton. Operators of small farms growing vegetables and fruits received nothing.
The book "Food Fight" by Daniel Imhoff, gives a detailed description of the nation's farm subsidy program. According to this book, " ... three in five farmers don't get any subsidy, while the richest 5 percent average about $475,00 each" per year.
The book also states that "in 1986 a nationwide scandal erupted when the Prince of Liechtenstein had collected more than $2 million in cotton and rice subsidies (over a period of time) as an absentee land owner."
The winner 'bought' a $1,000,000 home with his 'winnings'
And now he can't pay
Get it?
Checkmate
Counterparty risk. Know it. Love it.
"
Let's say you match a bet with me, and you win. But I'm bankrupt and I can't pay."
OK, but the amount of bankrupt is probably a great deal less than 50 trillion. Of course, 25% of 50 trilion is still scary.
The question is...Will all of the defaulted debt create a deflationary spiral? iTulip.com says, "no." Peter Schiff and Ron Paul say, "no." It is because they believe that gold is money. When all of the fiat disappears (along with all of the faith in currency) gold will be left. So, who owns all of the gold?
Just look at that chart. From under $1 trillion to over $50 trillion in a matter of months.
George Bush and Alan Greenspan and Congress were clueless.
And now, the world financial system is brought to its knees.
It only took the unregulated bankers a matter of months.
A matter of months.
Ka-boom.
The only chance we have is if the new admin has the courage to state the truth: That we are on our way to a depression; that the boom years were an illusion and a lie that aren't (and shouldn't) return; that we are in for a very painful adjustment because we need to go from jobs that promote excess both by their nature and their profits (think everything from hedge fund manager to custom blinds) to doing work that provides a necessary service and a living, but not opulent wage.
Gee, now that I look at it, I guess we are pretty f***ed.
Anon said:
‘5. Obama is a Falasha jew.
6. Obama is supported by AIPAC.
this is all you need to know. adjust your preperations accordingly.’
I’m a bit confused can you please elaborate.
I was not much of an Obama fan, but if he has the support of such a pious and noble organization as AIPAC, he now has my full and unconditional support.
Wow this puts a whole new lite on things.
I’ve also adjusted my preparations and filled out 2 checks of $500.00 each, which I will donate to an Obama cause and AIPAC first thing tomorrow morning.
Keefer,
You still keeping a grudge on Bush?
uh oh, not healthy.
keith said...
And now, the world financial system is brought to its knees.
It only took the unregulated bankers a matter of months.
A matter of months.
Ka-boom.
Actually they have been working the situation for 8 years. Setting up for the final Big Heist right before the change in Leaders.
We just know the whole derivative story now. We didn't understand how they were doing it before. We just knew something was really wrong. Everyone looked rich until the tide went out.
A CDS only has value if the underlying bond is defaulted on. So the 62T of risk only materializes if all of the bonds are defaulted on. And since the underlying bonds are worth by far less in face value than the bets that were placed on them, all we need to do is guarantee these bonds. As soon as the CDS period lapses, all is good. I know its not that simple, but to say that there is 62T in outstanding obligations is not entirely true.
So, who owns all of the gold?<<<
most of the gold is in private hands. the people who own the banks hold most of the gold. the banks hold a lot of the rest of it, with about 9 percent held by everybody else. here they tell everyone that gold is junk, don't worry about it, but they hold it. so, i ask you. why would they hold it if it was not worth anything? they know as well as anyone that gold and silver coins are real money and this paper junk is crap that they created to steal from the people. our forefathers slept while they pushed through the FED in 1913 and we have been going downhill fast ever since. If the amerikans had rioted and demanded that the FED charter be revolked and that congress do its duty and allow the citizens of this land to use proper money like is noted in the constitution, there would be no such thing as bubbles and there would be no debt. debt is what is killing us now. debt created by the use of paper money and credit, which is creating money and profits out of the thin air. you people need to listen and listen good. the time for fooling around is just about over now. they are pushing hard now. coming are gun confiscations and ammunition controls, hate crime laws, mandatory vaccinations of various sorts, and etc, etc. this manchurian candidate we have in the white house now is attempting to be all things to all people. what he will do is involve us numerous unnecessary wars in order to take our eyes off of the financial collapse and at the same time take away more and more of our rights and call it for our own good. this was the plan. this is the plan. this man was raised from childhood to do what he is doing now. when the time came for him to come forward, he was brought forward. to the blacks, he is black. to the liberal whites he is cool. to the conservative whites he is change. to the mexicans he is a poor minority who made good. to some of the jews who are not in the loop , he is a muslim. to most of the muslims he is a muslim. to the muslims around chicago, he is a jew. to the jews that are in the know , he is the answer to all of their problems and will do whatever they wish. to wit, notice who the second most powerful man in the obama administration, is the dual citizen who fought in the IDF , none other than the mossad agent Rahm Israel Emanuel. listen to the words of the messenger my friends. listen. we are in severe danger now.
Blogger keith said...
Just look at that chart. From under $1 trillion to over $50 trillion in a matter of months.
George Bush and Alan Greenspan and Congress were clueless.
And now, the world financial system is brought to its knees.
It only took the unregulated bankers a matter of months.
A matter of months.
Ka-boom.
January 25, 2009 9:01 PM<<<
yep, keith. is there a correlation between the time that greespan started his tenure and the bubble? yes there is. is there a correlation between the time that clinton has the Glass-Steagall Act repealed in 1999 and this whole rotten affair? you bet there is.
Keith don't know shat says.
Fookin A! Youze just been playin a like a virgin whore and been knowin all about it yah sweaty little beaver. Whats yah been holdin out so long for eh? This is the real deal and real end game and why the banks and fed and treasure dont say where all the money has gone.
now then. how long you been holdin out on all these tiny tims thats have been trusting yah? hunh? whats all this other sport been about?
Just say no to money. I run a government subsidized apartment complex. I just leased an apartment to a "zero income" tenant. We now pay her $57.00 a month to live in it (utility allowance). Thats right--she has NO money honey. NADA munnie---broker than a light bulb in a sack of bricks!! Uncle Suggie is totin the note!. VIA USDA Rural Development!!! Just say NO to munnie, ya dont need none. (btw--the correct term really is "Zero Income Tenant"---really!!!!!
What happens if we go with this aggregator bank or 'bad bank' idea?
If govt creates an institution, call it 'RTC, Part Duh', that buys up all the toxic assets, however many trillions that takes, the banks are then solvent again. The default never happens.
If the banks and other institutions don't default then we don't get credit default and the time-bomb is defused.
More and more, this aggregator bank concept looks to be the likely outcome.
But will they do it in such a way as to punish the speculators who hold the equities and fixed income securities of these banks? Or do they not have the guts?
keith, why do you ask us a question about if we believe gold will hit 10k this year? gads man, the gold bugs have been through hell. nobody will take that bet...
This could be cool if we keep our heads.
Don Payne
Fookin A Don Payne, you the man. Problem is most beez just not much more than animals. Come fookin take you high minded bride and kids too when it all hits the fan. Sorry Bruda, I wish we was all like you. No one is gonna keep there head.
The problem has always been that the Old Guard's death throes would ruin us in the vulnerable transition.
Will Obama et. al. let that happen? Or will they put the Old Guard out to pasture?
Wow, the Messiah will truely usher in the new golden age. NOT! He will reck the doller and set this country back 100 years.
You can't eat gold.
Store up for yourselves treasure in heaven.
All I know is that this leverage game and the CDS's were just the product of a unregulated system that was trying to max the profits with a bunch of bogus bets and game playing ,that seems like a profitable thing to do at the time . If your unregulated and you can leverage by
40x real funds ,your in a catbird seat to make major bucks on a trend or mania .
This greed machine wasn't even thinking about how it was killing the host or making bets on fake values . All that mattered is that there was money to be made . It didn't matter if risk factors were underestimated ,what mattered is that the money changers and game players had a quick profit game to play.Oh how great that the unregulated didn't have to answer to anyone .And the regulated got in bed with the unregulated and it complicated the game .
As the Ponzi scheme deepened ,than more and more absurd loans came about to keep the party going and fraud became commonplace in loan transactions .
The laws were already in place as to how the de-leveraging would take place ,but that would involve a lot of lawsuits and a lot of wealth lost so the saga begins on how to transfer the bagholding to the public.
The Market Makers are caught between a rock and a hard place ,no different than Bernie when he knew he didn't have funds to cover the requests from clients .
Their are a lot of people that should be going to jail ,or sued silly ,but they aren't because of these bail-outs .
Mish smacks down Peter Schiff and his theory of decoupling & hyperinflation:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html
Enjoy.
-Mike
Anyone like analyzing at charts.
Try to compare the slope and beginning duration of the 2009 unemployment rate with those of 2001, 1992, 1982, and 1980.
The slope of 2009 US unemployment rate looks like that of 1980, but the beginning duration seems to suggest that the 2009 unemployment has allot more room to grow.
Will the 2009 US unemployment rate look more like the 1980 Ohio unemployment rate.
http://dispatch.com/wwwexportcontent
/sites/dispatch/local_news/stories
/2009/01/24/graph.jpg
Get ready for a long period of stagnation economically. Survival of the fittest will be the mantra...
These are the days that will set the stage for the next set of break-through technologies and entrepreneurs.
Brilliant minds will be sought after as well as a distinction made between those that just work vs those that are passionately productive. The latter will be rewarded and the former gradually but surely phased out.
Skills, certifications & hard work will make a comeback as the surefire road to success. The days of just being in for the ride have come to pass.
jim: "OK, but the amount of bankrupt is probably a great deal less than 50 trillion. Of course, 25% of 50 trilion is still scary."
your forgetting the "economic multiplier" effect! i.e. joe and his friends lose their jobs and stop spending money money. bob and his friends, who make money off joe and his friends are now laid off until the economy improves.
ya gotta love the dominoes!
"Blogger Jeff said...
You can't eat gold.
Store up for yourselves treasure in heaven."
YEah!! Rich people cant get into heaven. Send me your gold!!
F*cked indeed! Reading this morning’s business news – more layoffs:
* Caterpillar – 20,000
* Home Depot – 7,000
* Sprint – 8,000
Also, McDonald’s profit falls.
So, how does the stock market respond to this gloomy news?
Up >100 points!
Strange.
The charts show the data is to 2008 Q2. What's it like now, in 2009 Q1?
It was Rubin, under Clinton that nixed the Glass Steagall, but it was Bush that took away the banking regulations that let the margins get to 40-50:1.
Therein lies the problem, for the most of it. But you have to ask yourself, like a few around here think, was this a problem/reaction/solution, Hegelian mechanism.
The plumber in me wants to say that Obama wants to socialize the big banks because he thinks he's right, but he'll just destroy competition.
No other bank can compete with a federal government backed banking system. That is what troubles me, if you want all the marbles, this is the kind of thing some insane person would do.
Even if they pulled-it-off, and they killed competition in banking, it would also kill free-enterprise and innovation.
If there are really madmen at the levers, we are dead. I hope the big-O knows these things, because it's my guess they'll liquidate him once the banking business is just a few hands.
"...This greed machine wasn't even thinking about how it was killing the host...so the saga begins on how to transfer the bagholding to the public..."
Nicely put, Sir/Madam.
Another distinguished member from the Jewish community. C'mon guys, sing along: We are the world, we are the Ponzi...
on Jan 8, the SEC came knocking on Joseph S. Forte's door in Broomall, Pa., for allegedly scamming 80 investors out of $50 million. Forte had been selling false securities in limited partnerships since 1995. Forte's forte, the SEC says, was in reporting consistent annual returns, of between 18% and 37%. In actuality, the fund's only real consistency was in its losses. On Sept. 30, 2008, Forte stated his fund was valued at $150 million, when the actual balance was about $147,000. Whoops! (See the worst business deals of 2008.)
Forte may not have had Madoff's years of experience, but his instincts were dead on: of the $50 million in investor monies, the SEC says Forte deposited $26 million, withdrew $23 million, took $12 million for himself, and gave the rest to early investors, a formula considered the Ponzi gold standard. Forte did not return phone calls to comment on his case.
http://tinyurl.com/djyp7n
"Mish smacks down Peter Schiff and his theory of decoupling & hyperinflation"
-----------------------------------
Dang, Mish was harsh.
But, deservingly so.
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