Nimesh Patel said...
My prediction for 2008 is that the real estate market will recover and our stock market will go through another bull run after it hits a low of 12000. America is the wealthiest country in the whole world. Despite the recent subprime mortgage fallout, foreigners will continue to trust us.
born to lose said...
2008 - 2010 will be the toughest times since the seventies.
Three_Mile_Island said...
Fed rate 1%
Gold new highs
Oil new highs
decaffeinated said...
- At least one major US bank that is not Countrywide will teeter on the brink of insolvency, forcing a Congressional bailout. I'm thinking WaMu, but the rot at Citi seems pervasive as well.
- WaMu's stock price will flirt with $5/share.
- Gold will top out at $975/oz, silver at $18/oz.
- The Dems will take the presidency and retain both houses of Congress. Republicans will piss themselves.
TM said...
My prediction for 2008 is that house prices will continue their slide, home loan, auto loan and credit card defaults will continue to rise, and 401k funds will continue to be raided.
Most importantly, I think the credit crunch will worsen, and will prompt a full-scale bailout of banks by the government.
Andrew from Russia said...
A Black Swan Year, and perhaps the first glimpse of post-consumerist economy.
keith said...
If Bloomberg doesn't run, Obama is the next President
On housing, US median price falls 10% in 2008
On stocks, no idea on the averages, but watch for builders, banks, lenders and investment houses to fail and merge. CFC, IMB and WM are first up
Anonymous said...
I predict we have an economic collapse of gigantic proportions. Men, women and children will all be homeless and there will be no food. People will have riots over food. Gold will go up to $10,000,000 per ounce and keep going up. Keith and all of the other HP'ers will be happy hiding in their mama's basement eating crackers and canned foods while the rest of America suffers.
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16 comments:
You missed this gem. I thought I posted something back then.
It's shorthand but it was correct.
"I will go by "INQUIRING MIND" for the purposes of this prediction thread.
I wrote on December 1st 2007
"SCENARIO:
'Massive Job Losses'
When? 'Early Next Year'
'Pushes stick forward on housing collapse' (Airplane reference. Pushing the stick forward on a plane puts it into a steeper dive)
'Leveraged Assets Fail'
'Pension Plans Fail'
'Commotion'
'Reactionary pullback in spending speeds collapse'
Later on I expect; despair,anger,violence, and political upheaval.
August of '06 I posted the following on the web but took it down later-
As I sat in the Costco food court, sipping a coke, a visual image along with a feeling came into my mind. I saw my wife and I at some future date having a despaired discussion. A feeling of hopelessness hung like a pall over the scene. We were cleaned out and unable to make a house payment. The money we had put down was gone and we had nothing. The American dream had become a noose around our necks. I sensed that this was at least a nationwide thing and that there was pain everywhere.
This was back in March of 2006. I had watched the housing market and was contemplating purchasing a house. Something didn’t feel right so I was trying to tune in. I have always felt that I had some level of intuition but also have had a lot of doubt about my ability to “bet the farm” on that intuition. I heard that the conscious mind is the intuition’s biggest critic, so I decided to open the door and listen, but to back that up with LOTS of research.
I discovered that astute analysts have been warning about the housing bubble for at least two years and that the warnings have gotten louder in the last several months. The mass awareness of the bubble broke wide open yesterday, August 23rd when the bubble was the lead story on ABC, CBS, NBC, and The Drudge Report. The domino effects of this process will be admitted into the mass awareness later and with great resistance."
"I predict we have an economic collapse of gigantic proportions. Men, women and children will all be homeless and there will be no food. People will have riots over food. Gold will go up to $10,000,000 per ounce and keep going up. Keith and all of the other HP'ers will be happy hiding in their mama's basement eating crackers and canned foods while the rest of America suffers."
You know, this is what you have people predicting for THIS year on every thread here. Hasn't the "hoarding food and guns in the basement" crowd been predicting this since, basically, forever?
Seer! you saw it coming. So many pple are still in denial. What's coming is more ominous. First sign of retribution: Bernard Madoff arrested over alleged $50 billion fraud. The good side of this crisis is that it will unmask a lot of swindlers and their Ponzi Schemes. It's time to go after the fat cats who've made hundreds of millions in fraudulent scams while Bushco and Congress were asleep at the wheel.
More scandals coming soon!
i predict you are going to be really pissed that you were had by this chicago con artist but you will not publicly state it oh my prediction has already come true wow that was fast election day was just like yesterday and how is europe faring i can tell you as i walk madison avenue in manhattan on my way to my part time job (retired) all i hear is french german italian russian i thought they all hated america so why visit us during the holidays just go to greece looks lovely from the pictures anyway the sit com is about to start and i need a to walk the dog
And at the time, the more extreme scenarios seemed just that -- extreme.
I guess I should have been more open minded about just how far we could fall. Anyone see bottom yet?
Re homeless, hiding in basement, etc..No, that starts in 2009. It will be clear in 2009 we are in a Depression, it will not be short: the Greater Depression is what it will be called. You were just ahead of yourself.
Grandma pkk
Off to sign on a new house today.got a steal on a reo house.how is renting boys?Or are you still living w/ mom and dad?
feels ike HP is back..and thats good
squidly77
Keith, I was still partially correct. The world still puts' their faith in the good ole U.S. of A. Witness that people are buying U.S. Treasuries hand over fist. Heck, at one time they even yielded a negative return!
It is true that America has a huge national debt. But when compared to Japan, we are still in a much better shape.
Look, we will be in a very deep recession. But all of this talk of a Great Depression is pure nonsense. It won't happen. We are too big to fail. I know it sounds like a cliche by now. But the Dollar is the world's reserve currency. It looks like right now that the bottom for the Dollar will fall out (since there really are no fundamental reasons to support the Dollar). But since the Dollar is the world's reserve currency, it would end up hurting everyone in the world. Also, when America catches a cold, the rest of the world catches a flu!
Uncanny predictions (aside from the first & last on your list)!
Also, FMW predicted this year the world would become a colder place. She was mostly correct, and in more ways than one!
-Mammoth
P.S. Be careful what you post here - HP'ers/S&A'ers have long memories.
P.S.S. Next up - predictions for 2009?
From Peg Noonan's recent article. I guess the number of people using the internet to watch everyone loves raymond outnumber the HP and Sashers amongst us.
>Some of the infrastructure ideas put forward are obvious and fine: rebuild roads and bridges. One is unexpected and smart: strengthen the electrical grid. One is so lame as to seem a non sequitur: make sure every classroom has the Internet. In America, you don't have to worry that kids won't go online, you have to worry the minute they do. The Internet is not a gifted teacher, but only another limited resource. There is no sign, none, that the Internet has made our nation more literate, or deep, and many signs it has made us less so, u no?
Here's a thought from David Brooks also.
>Perhaps the New Deal paradigm everybody is applying doesn’t actually fit the circumstances. Certainly something big needs to be done to calm this crisis, but perhaps in the doing, some unholiness is being unwittingly and rashly created.
Why is it, some ask, that America is so slavishly following the same failed route earlier taken by the Japanese — from bank capitalization, to industrial bailouts to infrastructure spending? Why is it that the pork-meisters in Congress are already distorting the best-laid stimulus plans? Why are there so few saying “no” to any budget request? Why do so many of the plans being offered rely upon a Magic Technocrat — an all-knowing Car Czar who can reorganize Detroit, an all-seeing team of Olympians who decide which medicines doctors will be allowed to prescribe?
Good thought David, Thanks.
Hey everyone invest in gold now or you will be priced out forever.
Just look that chart. Look at the amazing returns since 1980.http://newsthattrades.insurancetechguru.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/slide1.jpg
born to lose is a jackass.
he couldn't predict noon at 11:45
he also said the Patriots wouldn't even make the playoffs last year when everybody in their right mind knew they were going to go undefeated.
his constant yammering about unemployment on HP makes him look foolish.
tin foil hat jackass.
> A Black Swan Year, and perhaps the first glimpse of post-consumerist economy.
Hi. Although this new blog appears way too much US-centric (wasn't it about reinventing America and THE WORLD?), I'm still checking in occasionally.
Black Swan Year, we surely had one! As for post-consumerism, I'm amazed that even here, the evils of overconsumption and the lack of private savings are now publicly acknowledged (the same clowns were all going gaga over "stimulating consumption" as late as October 2007). Now, the consumer credit window has been slammed shut - literally - in the majority of banks.
The real-estate bubblemarket is TOAST, its inventory being diverted to "social housing" (= government pork) projects in a haste. Good riddance!
I'm still 63% in US dollars but had recently allocated 7.5% to the still-weak Russian stocks and will probably complete the transition by the next summer. Because Russia starts off a low base with sub-1% public exposure to the stock market, a fascinating journey could lie ahead (unless everything is going to get nationalized).
All in all, 2009 could feel depressing but the inflationary "growth" was turning outright malignant were it not stopped this way.
Everyone has their opinion, I respect that, we're not all made of the same fold. So... 2009, what gives? Let me digress first.
As I told my ex-boss in the lockerroom of a hockey game, sitting across from each other, lacing up skates, wrapping tape across our shin pads, and pulling our jersey's on, "2008. What a crazy year?!" And my now (not then) ex-boss candidly replies, "I know completely unreal." I tell him, "If we can make it through this then we can make it through anything." He agrees.
Within the same month, I am leaving one meeting and walking to another, he stops me at his office door. I look in his office, it seems more empty. He's unvoluntarily packing up his personal belongings.
I look back and see his face, think of his kids, his wife, his family, the work he's provided, the things he's taught me, and to think he's not there any longer, but still searching for something to contribute to this country, a company, a department, a team, yet no one is wanting.
Accountants in high gear search for employee numbers that represent red font, wrapped in parenthesis on their spreadsheets. Cardboard boxes are carried out of bigbox offices by those who represent a threat to the bottom line. The real threat to the bottom line wasn't my boss it was credit. Once a never ending stream of pouring money suddenly it's realized we weren't collectively good enough to pay it back, not even close. Too bad warning signs aren't noticed by everyone, especially those in command who at one time with little regard to consequences collected untold sums of money. Money. That's all it was, it comes and goes. However some allow it to define their life. Will you put your accumulated wealth on your tombstone? "Marco, left this world up $1,000,000. RIP. Disclaimer: no money was left in the casket."
My 2008 was a year of anticipation, worry, fear and it all wrapped into a climatic event that left me gratefully spared, happy to work. And you think of the emotions leading into that, and you think to yourself, you only know fear if you know or suspect what is or could be on the horizon. An ignorant mind is that of one void of fear and worriness.
So multiply my situation by literally millions and you have the U.S. Some, like my boss, experienced it first hand and others like myself, through my lense looking at others, second hand.
So... 2009? Wow, what will it bring? How many outcomes can we fathom?
The optimist in me thinks, look at all that untapped laid-off labor ready to reinvest in a new, more modern manufacturing economy. Energy, new US Auto, repairing infrastucture and all of the intagibles that go along with it with new government leadership. New Labor + New Tech = Growth.
The pessismist looks at the abuse of the dollar, it's whoring out to the world and the absolute disrespect that the citizens of the U.S. have shown it over the past couple decades and this thing, this Money, is going to come back to haunt us.
One day, soon into the future, the citizens of this country must create tangible wealth instead of borrowing other's wealth. Which path we choose may define 2009. It will be a pivot.
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