April 5, 2009

Oh, did I mention that you've been taken for fools before? And that you'll be taken for fools again?


Anonymous said...

What does common sense tell you to do.


Unemployment Rising

On Friday, reality bit back with the news that the unemployment rate spiked in March, to 8.5 percent, a 25-year high.

There is no longer any doubt that the current recession will be the longest yet in America since World War II.

The previous record-holders — the contractions of the early 1970s and the early 1980s — each lasted for 16 months.

As of now, the economy already has been in decline for 16 straight months.

It is painfully clear, however, that the law’s potential to create or save a few million jobs will not be enough to combat the current scale of unemployment.

Anonymous said...

Controlling the fall of house price was once believe to be the key to stopping this credit crisis, but this credit crisis changes like flowing water as it move to the path of less resistance.

First came subprime loans, then came the hit on commercial mortgage backed security.

Now this crisis moved like water and fooled you with a hit on the job front.

How do you plan for the future when the future seems so uncertain.


Jobs Report Offers No Sign of Light at End of Tunnel

The March 2009 employment situation report, released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed that the labor market continued its free fall in March.

Unemployment increased sharply from 8.1% to 8.5%, its highest level since 1983, and payroll employment declined by 663,000 jobs, an average of over 30,000 jobs lost every work day in March.

This was the third steepest decline in 15 straight months of job loss.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the economy has shed 5.1 million jobs, including over two million jobs lost in the last three months alone.

Mitesh Damania said...

We could be the dumbest when it comes to ERAs too. Bush and the bankers should have all been gone off the planet, at least by now.

Anonymous said...

Us: A quick history of your blog, please

Us: Did u ever think it get this bad?

Us: What role did you think blogging played in this cycle?

Us: Going forward, how may all these new sources of real estate info — from blogs to real estate info sites like Zillow, Trulia, etc. — change the housing game?

Us: OK, when will housing bottom?

1st in a series


2nd in a series


3rd in a series


4th in a series


Singular said...

The ad is partly right. It's a good time to buy a home with prices being low. However, the chances of keeping one's job and so being able to make mortgage payments is worse than before. If you have a lot of cash saved up, then it might be worthwhile dumping it all on a home and protect the value of your money in this way. At least you will have a roof over your head in the coming depression. You can collect rent if you already have your own home. It's going to be a terrible situation. Just hanging onto cash in the future won't be enough though. In a Weimar-inflation situation, the cash will become quickly worthless - remember how the German marks dropped in value? So one will have to keep working to earn money that keeps up with inflation. In Weimar Germany, employers had to pay their workers large wads of notes because they knew the German mark had become so low. The nest egg you keep in the bank or under the mattress might be worth nothing in a Weimar/Zimbabwe type hyperinflation which is in the works in America if they keep pumping money into the system and also if the derivatives crisis hits.

So basically you're screwed unless you keep working, unless there is some income flow. But the catch is jobs will become scarce in the future and business will suffer.

The only people who will have it good are those who already own their own home, have a depression-proof job, and have put their money in a depression-proof investment like housing. Or of course the millionaires/billionaires who do not have to work as they have so much money already. However if the American dollar becomes like the Zimbabwe dollar, these people had better also take measures to protect their money by storing their money into something safe like property or even agricultural land. Afterwards when the depression is over, they can liquidate their assets, if they wish, and their money will not have lost in value, and may have even gained.

When the depression finishes, these people will make up the wealthy class if they didn't already. They might even end up wealthier than before. Wealth concentration.

Anonymous said...

Economist: US collapse driven by 'fraud,' Geithner covering up bank insolvency


Dr. Huxtable said...

PBS Video


Anonymous said...

BUYing vs RENTing a deteriorating asset, now called the "After Mac."

Renting places anyplace anywhere anytime is worry free!!

Rents are low, renting an "after mac" at $2k p/m. Buying this headache $2500-$3000 plus ?? cash down.

Call it the Benny point of view. Benny never owned anything but the clothes on his back but instead concentrate himself on make lots of cash, fun and freedom,

Judge for yourself,

sign z papers said...

"Oh, did I mention that you've been taken for fools before? And that you'll be taken for fools again?"

Ain't THAT the truth!

But, FEAR NOT, for as we speak, the marketing wizards are repackaging this economic nightmare into a more pleasant, feel-good-about-yourself, YES-YOU-CAN!, home *ownership* dream.

And a NEW!. IMPROVED!, life-style loaded with gimmick-filled, LONG TERM financing *guaranteed* by future generations of indentured servants of the global bankster elites.

Anonymous said...

Still using the same old song and dance about low interest rates as the #1 reason to buy a house.

Low interest rates are the worst reason to buy a house. When house prices fall you can't write off equity.

Just my 2 cents.

Anonymous said...

"...The only people who will have it good are those who already own their own home, have a depression-proof job, and have put their money in a depression-proof investment like housing..."

That's our plan.

At some point, inflation will skyrocket. We must not hold dollars then.

Unfortunately, our San Diego real estate market is still about 10 times earnings. At least it's come down from 15. Rent/cost-to-own about 65%.

When we bought 15 years ago it was 4x earnings and 80%.

Anonymous said...

What came first high unemployment or high CMBS defaults.

As land lords defaults on one property will the rest of their other properties that are normally used as collateral default also.

If so what impact will these collateral default properties have on small businesses who rent them.

Will the small businesses who are struggling to survive have the capital to relocate, or will these small business owners just close up shop and lay off their workers


With loan defaults rising, analysts say the struggling commercial real estate industry is poised to fall into the worst crisis since the last great property bust of the early 1990s.

Delinquency rates on loans for hotels, offices, retail and industrial buildings have risen sharply in recent months and are likely to soar through the end of 2010 as companies lay off workers, downsize or shut their doors.

The commercial real estate market's fortunes are tied closely to those of the sinking economy, especially unemployment, which hit 8.1 percent in February.

"Until jobs start coming back and industry starts doing better we don't see performance increasing" among landlords, said Christopher Stanley, an associate with research firm Reis Inc.

Anonymous said...

What is that saying:

"Fool me once (Saving and Loan Scandal) shame on you, fool me twice (subprime) shame on me."

So who is the fool trying to bailout the Option, Alt-A, and NINJA loans.


The financial industry brought the economy to its knees, but how did they get away with it?

With the nation wondering how to hold the bankers accountable, Bill Moyers sits down with William K. Black, the former senior regulator who cracked down on banks during the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s.

Black offers his analysis of what went wrong and his critique of the bailout

Anonymous said...

What do you think will happen to the price of high end homes in the coming months.


Moody's Investor Service on Friday downgraded Thornburg Inc. to the lowest rated class of bonds, citing an expectation of default as part of the jumbo mortgage lender's Chapter 11 filing.

Thornburg's senior unsecured debt and senior unsecured debt shelf were lowered to "C" from "Ca," both of which are junk status.

Anonymous said...

Sounds like William Black PBS interview with BILL MOYERS on April 3 had some impact on Timothy Geithner.


The government may require new faces in executive suites at banks requiring “exceptional assistance” in the future, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Sunday.

Critics of the Obama administration’s move last weekend to force out the chairman of General Motors Corp., Rick Wagoner, as a condition for possible additional federal loans say that strong government intervention contrasts with measures placed on the financial industry in return for billions in infusions.

Geithner denied there was a double standard and put banks on notice that they may need to change leadership teams in exchange for accepting more money in the future.

Anonymous said...

Do fools rush in, are you a novice real estate investor hoping to become a landlord.

As you read about defaults in the CMBS markets, ask yourself this question.

What will happen to residential rental price as more layoff take place.

College kids stay closer to home for college.

College grads will move back in with their parents.

Foreclosed home owners move in with family and friends.


It’s the same vicious cycle we’ve been over before. Businesses cut back on spending, investing, and hiring. Unemployed people, or those who just fear they will be unemployed, cut spending. This, in turn, reduces revenues and the downward cycle continues.

This is nothing new. We see it every day. The key here is the cycle takes a long while to hit commercial real estate (CRE).

The delay comes from many factors. For instance, businesses don’t renew leases every month. They don’t close up shop quickly. They try to survive until the last dollar is spent. This results in a long delay. Considering the recession began in November 2007, right about now is the time when it starts to hit CRE.

New York is the “canary in the coal mine” when it comes to CRE. A year ago, vacancy rates in the Big Apple were between 7% and 8%.

Anonymous said...

What tent cities don't tell you already know.

During the heart of the middle stage of the housing slump unemployment goes up and residential rental price goes down.

Remember there three phases to the housing cycle.

1) Boom
2) Slump
3) Recovery

In each phases there are three stages

a) Beginning
b) Middle
c) Ending


Tent cities don't tell poverty's full story

Nationally, the numbers living in tent cities remain relatively small.

By contrast, the numbers living in dire poverty in homes, residential hotels or relatives' living rooms now number in the many millions.

They are a less visual, but in many ways more representative, face of severe recession-related poverty.

maximus said...

Hey it was a great time to SELL a home....

gotta give them that....

interestingly enough,it still is....

I'll get back to you on the buying part....


Ross said...

The Great Global Warming Swindle:


I don't know kids, both sides have good points and both are supported by Science.

Call me Flat-Earther.

Paul E. Math said...

Just watched that Bill Moyers interview with former regulator William Black. Dude. Awesome.

Thanks for posting that.

i've had it said...

Met a guy tonight in a bar who lives in fort lauderdale. he said the bottom still has not hit there or anywhere in florida. he also said that those owning condos are getting hosed on the common area fees since so many units have been vacated by "owners" and the fixed cost of the condo now has to be picked up by fewer owners.

Anonymous said...

saw a string of condos for 18,000 last month and with the rebate offered for 8,000... that makes a place to live for 10,000........irresistible........