June 14, 2009

It's time to turn the 86% of you around.

26 comments:

JAWS said...

That was very nice.
I feel born again.
All is well, we survived the biggest bubble in the history of planet Earth, or at least it should have been. Come out of our spider holes and look around.

I'm taking your word, as it's worked well for a few years.

I'm driving to CA tomorrow morning with properties of interest to me in hand. Probably my last 3 years taxes and some bank statements.

I will start putting blood-bath, low-ball, cash offers on properties just for the fun of it. I will start applying for loans to see how much I can get. Those green shoots aren't ready for me to pounce on yet and close a deal, but I'm sure going to have fun playing with the powers that be and make them drool while I get a feel for what's possible.

Jaws is gonna fly before the 86% wake up. I'm going to seriously screw with the 86%; I think I'm getting it.

Duarte said...

There never was a panic. A foreclosure hardly sticks to your record. There is food everywhere. All of the Alt-A's about to reset don't appear to worry you, because you think the inflation won't hurt the real estate market by monetizing people's debt - or because Obama's money bomb's won't result in sky high interest rates that will hurt investments. Why point out the bright side? It never got that dark.

One question though...I don't have 50,000 to blow on a down payment on real estate that may not even keep pace with inflation. Where am I going to get it? Why would I stop renting? My rental in Redmond, WA is 3000 sq ft for 1750/month. The banks are done with subprime.

The stock market will rise with the falling dollar. I see no silver-lining except my silver stocks.

Mark in San Diego said...

I'm with you on this, as you know, I finally bought in SD in April. . .not that I think the housing market is at bottom, but because it made sense for me, and the price was right. . .having said that, the "recovery" will be a different animal than before. High unemployment, continuing commercial real estate problems, and credit write-offs for the banks will keep this recovery in the slow lane. . .the real reason the stock market is "back" is because a full scale depression was being priced in, and the massive government intervention prevented that. But. . .14,000 to 6000 and then back to 8700 isn't a full recovery, and I expect the 9000 mark to be about it for the next few years. . .probably bounce between a DOW 8000 and 9000.

Don't look for housing prices to run up fast. . .I say way below normal appreciation for 10 years. . .probably not even keeping up with inflation. Those people waiting for "housing prices to come back" will have a long long wait.

Anonymous said...

This is no there there...

Buy at YOUR OWN risk.

The banks are through with Juan the janitor and Rosa the cook.

Hmm. well, maybe NOT...

Anonymous said...

thought ypu might like to know that the first DTV converter box i bought with government coupons about a year back has broken and will not switch on anymore..Im guessing that the made in China thing is the way that our government has decided to collect a yearly tax on televisions like the British system...Crappolo realy irritates me as i now now that they will tell me that both the television and the converter box must be shut off at every use...........

Anonymous said...

never mind that the next converter box will cost 65 bucks er.... 65 cents to the ruling elite......or that GE USA produced electronics and electrics i have had have lasted 45 years.....

West Coast Willie said...

The pictures are nice but Paco Bell is one of the most reviled musical pieces ever written.

So that is what a "depression" feels like. Could have missed it if you slept in late. Where was the sustained fear?

All hail the Fed. They obviously know exactly what they are doing and who am I to argue.

Time to get back in the casino 86%ers.

Randy said...

Queefer, OK

I'm an 86er whats the plan?

I have approx. $150k sitting in cash looking for a place to plant it.

what do you recommend?

Anonymous said...

Kept waiting for the zombie.

Prisoner No. 6 said...

never mind that the next converter box will cost 65 bucks er.... 65 cents to the ruling elite......or that GE USA produced electronics and electrics i have had have lasted 45 years.....

Point No. 1: You are old. Stop grumbling so much, grampa.

Point No. 2: Stop watching so much TV. It rots your brain. Get out in the world and have some fun that doesn't involve phosphors & brainless blonde talking heads.

Randy said...

Keef,

86% of the folks down in the trenches feel something isn’t right with an economy that’s running on a very short-term sugar high.

86% of the shills on the MSM agree with you.

Isn’t the whole reason you were on the ball thus far, due to your respect for truth from the folks in the trenches?

Arguing that we’ve stopped falling is totally in line with the majority of ‘experts’.

The same ‘experts’ that were dead wrong in 2005, the ones you are now calling for their heads.

The confusion here is that Orangillo and the NAR agree with you.

If you end up being wrong and your advice causes people to lose money are you prepared for the same scrutiny you’ve been giving to the orange man?

Anonymous said...

Happy Pictures won't do it. A house that doesn't tank by thousands of dollars an hour will as well as a 401k that doesn't make me vomit when I open the statements. We are a ways from any change in those catergories

Anonymous said...

I think the phrase you were really looking for was "bend you over."

How long we been sprouting now; a few months?

Let's talk in a few years.

George L said...

yeah well,whatever Keith. recovery or not,recession or depression,Dow 3,000 or Dow 15,000,good times or bad times,bush or Obama.

like I said before,I've been making a killing since this mess began and will continue to do so if there is a "recovery".

or not...

Nimesh said...

Sure Keith, so the massive 350% to GDP debt ratio will just disappear. The huge house hold income to debt will just go away.

We are a nation and people living in debt. And all of this debt won't just disappear. Look how hard The Fed, Treasury, etc.. have tried to manufacture inflation to do what they only know; to reinflate the bubble. And it still hasn't worked.

It's amazing to me that there are a lot of people in your camp Keith. And every few months, they say "oh just wait six to twelve months it will turn around".

We Americans are conditioned to be optimistic when it comes to investments.

I a am not a doom and gloom type of person, but you still won't address all of these problems (high debt, Alt-A loans, the commercial real estate bubble, the banking industry's awful balance sheets, etc...).

YoungExec2B said...

What is with the green shoots? We're bottom of the fifth inning, at the furthest. The starter's been knocked out of the game (banking system) and now the bullpen (government) is in trying to clean up the mess until the offense (business/consumers) can hit their way back into the game. People are cheering because the batters scored a couple of runs and are only down 8-2. There's a long way to go before the comeback is complete, if the game can even be won.

What's going to happen when taxes inevitably need to be raised? When municipalities and states go bankrupt? When all the recent job losses max out their credit cards making their mortgage payments and declare bankruptcy? What about all the defaults when businesses are already hemorrhaging money? What about when the dollar devaluation is complete? What happens to housing and car sales when interest rates come back up off historical lows?

There's still way too much out there.

Anonymous said...

"Jaws is gonna fly before the 86% wake up. I'm going to seriously screw with the 86%; I think I'm getting it.

June 14, 2009 8:56 PM"

You have the Right Attitude there. I'm almost Positive you WILL "Get It".

Enjoy the DIE Off.

There's some Great Buys in Central California, like Bakersfield, Los Banos, Ceres-Modesto, Merced, and Finally the Big Winner anywhere in Sacramento.

You'll do Fine.. Bwa Ha ha ha ha.

Adios Muchacho!

Anonymous said...

KEITH!!

Will you please give us your 2 cents on the story of the Japanese Nationals that got caught trying to smuggle the 134 BILLION in US bonds to Switzerland?!!!!!

Blog land and apparently EVERYWHERE BUT the US is all over this story--whether these bonds are real or fake...

If these are serialized instruments, their authenticity could be validated in hours...

WHY is there a black out in the US on this story??


This is a facinating story!!

google Denninger...he seems to be the only one looking in to it!

run like hell said...

For the national economy to *rebound* it must defy gravity and fall UP the cliff...

But seriously, there are three major obstacles to reflating the ponzi bubble:

1) The absolutely vital *greater fools* haven't got a pot to piss in or a window to throw it out of.

2) Said *fools* have been burned and are twice shy about investment opportunities/big ticket purchases.

3) These same *fools* no longer qualify for any available financing/credit, anyway.

Until there is an abrupt reversal of these constraints, the PTB's bubblenomics game plan is DOA.

Stimulus is only slowing down the rate of decline.

Plan ahead.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMuiJVY6Oyk

fat amelican said...

VP and master of locution, aka Joe Biden, announced Sunday that they were "just guessing" when the Obama administration put the recovery package together. Oopsie! we just pissed away $2T of your future earnings American Taxpayers. Oh and the 3.5 million jobs O-POTUS forecast? Turns out it will really be more like 600,000. Most of those are government hires assigned to administer and spend that $2T. These government workers contribute nothing meaningful to the real economy but they count as jobs anyway.

And this asshole of a VP had a big smile on his face while he dished the "good" news! Is this a great country or what? Green shoots, don't worry, be happy!

Anonymous said...

"...the 3.5 million jobs...more like 600,000. Most of those are government hires assigned to administer and spend that $2T..."

Thank goodness for that one bright spot in the economy.

Besides the counterfeited stock boost.

Anonymous said...

Keith, With all your delusions of Green Shoots and "We've Turned the Corner" pipedreams, would you please take the time to read this article posted this AM. http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/06/15-0

For some time you have been a hero for many of us who followed you with your housing blog and now your Soot blog. You were insistently correct over and over for the most part. Now you have reached a point of "I'm right and the rest of the world is blind" place that is suspect to nearly 90% of your readers. The US is toast, our economy is toast, our currency is toast, our govt. is toast, our world hedgemony is toast, our military is toast. We cannot and will not return to anything. There is nothing left to return to but massive debt, more borrowing and a jobless country.

Anonymous said...

Keith, you should youtube Montserrat Caballe and listen to her live Puccini arias in Italy, I think from the 50s?
They're unbelievable.
Anton

ps - Un bel di, Si mi chiamano Mimi, Vissi d'arte

keith said...

Last anon - my goal with HP was to help people avoid the coming meltdown.

Well, we then had the meltdown.

Now my goal with S&A is to help people thrive AFTER the meltdown.

Yes, the US and the world have significant problems. Significant.

But business runs in cycles. And after Depression and Despondency comes Hope, and recovery.

The banks were saved (at our expense). Housing fell 50%. Stocks fell 50%. Half the wealth of the world was washed away.

And yet we're still standing.

Now that the excess capacity has been washed away, the job losses will taper off. We'll hit 11% to 13% unemployment, so it'll be bad out there. But on that terrible base, we'll start the recovery.

It's dangerous to be a permabull. It's dangerous to be a permabear.

React. Stay ahead of the crowd. When things change, change with them. Be nimble. And challenge your beliefs.

I'm not 100% confident in this recovery, and feel we could see a quick double dip. I don't know.

But I know green shoots are here. Will they hold? Time will tell.

Anonymous said...

Sorry ...the Caballe arias are from 1975 in Barcelona. The black and white filming fooled me. As Tommy Lee Jones said in 'No Country For Old Men'....sometimes, my mind wanders.
Anton

Lost Cause said...

Keith -- you should see the ridiculous real estate pricing in California -- you know, something like 25% of the US GDP comes from here or something like that. Some places are falling, but many cities including giant Los Angeles and Orange County are at unsustainable heights. Current unemployment rate about 11%. Sincerely, what are you on?