June 19, 2009

Regale us with tales of times in the past few years you told people (friends, family, co-workers, strangers) that home prices were going to crash


And that this whole Ponzi Economy was going to unwind.

Did they listen?

Did they laugh at you?

And what do they think of your prescience today?

52 comments:

Anonymous said...

Most people live lives of quiet desperation. They listen but the don't really hear, they watch but they don't really see. A year ago I talked with my brother in law about a house he owned outright and wasn't using. He didn't live in it, he didn't want to bother renting it. My advice was to sell it immediately and I also added that I expected 20% of the retail stores in his area would close as the economy collapsed.

He didn't hand me a roll of tin foil, but his attitude was dismissive. How could anything like that happen? Well, it's a year later, the house is worth 25% less (not counting the dep from lack of care), and many of the strip malls in the area are ghost towns.

Anonymous said...

My family knows I was right all along now. I would not gamble with my kid's future, maybe I could have made a couple hundred thou, instead of just 50 thou on my condo in the SFV. My dad said I was too conservative! He went out and bought plenty of property. I Was happy with my condo anyway! Still my friend way back when (circa 2005) asked me if he should buy a place (i/o 80/20 loan). This was before I discovered HP, but I told him "I wouldn't". I explained what I knew of those loans, the incredible bubble that was forming in RE, how its the financing that was fueling the bubble, nothing else, and he listened. Funny you should post this topic, he thanked me two days ago in fact...
-JDF

DavidinSoCal said...

you know, I get more and more pissed off every day as I hear of family and friends that are not walking away or short selling "their" homes.

These people took a HUGE gamble and they lost, but the problem is that they arent the ones paying for the loss.... I AM!!!!!!!

3 examples of very close friends:

1- in St. George,UT they owe just shy of $900K and the bank has allowed them to short sell for $400K. They have assets out the A$$ and he makes over $250K a year. They can afford the payments, but dont want to pay them.

2- in Springville, UT they owe just over $900K (but its on a golf course) and the bank has given the OK to short sell for $325K. Husband and wife both work and have great jobs with boat, 4 wheelers, nice trips all the time, ets.... They can afford the payments, but dont want to pay

3- in Carlsbad, CA they owe $975K, but the bank has allowed a short sale for $625K. They both have great incomes and can afford the payments, but dont want to pay.

In all of these cases and MANY more that I know of, the people CAN AFFORD the payments, but just dont want to pay and as there is NO repercussion for this crooked behavior, WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE OF THIS!!!!!

DID I SAY I AM PISSED???????

Anonymous said...

The idiots now say they saw it coming, too. . . so frustrating . . . I even bet one family member a lobster dinner that housing would actually turn south, they took the bet really fast, and they have never paid up. . . did I mention how frustrating it was?

Ross said...

It doesn't matter. This is not one I am going to brag about anymore.

People never learn and then they blame everyone else for their problems.

I'm 28 now, working a high stress, low paying job because of the economy. But I didn't get in to much debt, didn't buy a house in Phoenix, although sometimes I wish I had flipped one in 2004 like my former friend/boss suggested I do. He is facing prison time for wire fraud so it was probably better that I didn't get in on any of his plans.

All in all I just have this empty feeling right now watching everyone I know struggle to keep jobs and pay bills. The lucky ones have just had to watch helplessly as the price of their assets declined.

What I am getting at here, is that I can't wait for the next bubble, because I will be right there to take advantage of all the suckers. This time I won't tell anyone how foolish their choices are because NO ONE F*CKING LISTENS.

Unicorns, Rainbows, Pies in the sky... they will all be back again one day. I hope this blog will have continued on in one form or another and we will all be patting eachother on the back for making it through the Global Economic Firestorm of '07-'11.

Batman said...

One problem I found was that the sense of "I told you so" is so strong and cutting, that it's too embarrassing for my friends for me to bring it up now.

A good friend of mine who commutes to Kings College in London from Stratford (yeah, like the 150 minute commute) bought a shoe box there for a kings ransom in 2006. At the time I relentlessly told him he was insane and should rent, to the point where I got pissed off at me. Now I can't mention it because I am so right it must make him feel like a complete idiot.

Amtex said...

I bought 2 houses in south Florida is 2002. I remember one day 2 years later walking through the neighborhood and coming upon 2-3 neighbors out walking dogs. We got to talking about a house up for sale for $500,000....most of us bought at $300,000.

Some neighbors were saying wow, this is great. One guy said, "No, this is going to be horrible, our taxes will rise. And these places are not worth $500,000."

I sold 6 months later at $550,000. Also sold the other rental house. Took my profits on both.

The house I sold at $550,000 the flipper put back on the market and eventually was asking $875,000!! It never sold, he still has it, latest value is around $400,000.

My good friend held onto his rental property in Port Saint Lucie, and in 2007 bought a bigger house for his family there. I told him not to, just rent. He was polite, did not listen.

He has now been transferred, the tenants left his rental, that one is going into foreclosure. His bigger house is up for rent with a possible tenant July 1st but a $300/month loss.

Stu said...

I told my single brother at the time (2005) NOT to buy an oversized and over priced home in a remote area of our state.

Did he listen to me? No

Did he laugh at me? Yes

Did he lose the house 1 year later? Yes

Has he recovered since then? No

Most importantly did he learn a valuable lesson? Unfortunately... No he didn’t.

Stuck in So Pa said...

As I stated in a previous post, State Rep laughed in my face at a political meeting. I'd sure like to be at his next.

Family didn't have to be told/shown. A few loan managers in the family straightened out the rest.

Friends/neighbors were happy where they were. No problem there.

At work, five co-workers asked advice from the 'old man.' One stayed renting. One (think the hen-pecked bozo on the Suzanne ad) went with pure suicide loans, and has had to borrow several thousand from both sets of parents, has taken on another full time job, and is still doomed. The other three took out thirty year fixed with 10-20% down and their jobs look pretty secure.

I, of course, am looked on as an investment/financial god at work. I explain to people that while it wasn’t a lucky call (since the historical facts were there,) I could have been wrong.

The wife still has a hissy if I even mention economy/housing at home or in social gatherings.

All in all, more positive memories than negative.

Now, if I could just get the wife won over!

Stuck in So Pa said...

"Ross said...
.......I can't wait for the next bubble, because I will be right there to take advantage of all the suckers. This time I won't tell anyone how foolish their choices are because NO ONE F*CKING LISTENS."
============================

I'm with Ross.

The next bubble comes down the pike, I'm in with both feet, AND somebody else's money.

Get in. Rape and Pillage! Don't be greedy, make your bucks, and get out early, just like Warren.

Since sheeple are determined to remain sheeple, it’s about time that I got mine!

Sounds harsh, but I'm pissed!

RobertM said...

@David in SoCal wote "you know, I get more and more pissed off every day as I hear of family and friends that are not walking away or short selling "their" homes"

Don't you mean you are pissed they ARE walking away at your expense?

DavidinSoCal said...

sorry, the NOT in my comment is a mistake.... it should read:

"you know, I get more and more pissed off every day as I hear of family and friends that are walking away or short selling "their" homes."

Scott said...

Told my brother in law in winter/early-spring 2008 that the market was dropping.

He insisted on buying a house anyway, that spring (at the height of the seasonal buying pressure), and basically paid listing price because the agent said "there's another offer pending". Right--after the house sat unsold for 6 months.

Worst part is, my sister hates the house and it's a long double-car commute for both of them. And they are both struggling to keep their retirement-transition jobs, which don't pay enough to comfortably pay the mortgage.

All because they weren't willing to stay another year or two with my elderly dad, nearly for free, or get a cheap, smallish rental and put most of their CRAP in cheap storage.

They knew they should not repeat the same mistake they did in 1990-ish, buying at the top of the market in a non-prime area, and being upside-down on the 10% loan for 10 years. But they did it anyway--the only good news is, their new interest rate is nice and low, they sold their old house near the top, and presumably had some equity to transfer from it from the last few years of paying in. But they traded UP for their retirement, instead of down, so, I don't know but what the loan size may be bigger!

casey said...

They do not listen.As long as they saw their neighbors making quick money they wanted some too.You know how it goes in every bubble.The last in are always bitching to the govt when they lose their ass.

Mike Oxlong said...

I don't see a lot healthy about living in the past.

OK, so we were right. But we have been wrong too. And we will be right and wrong again, for the rest of our lives.

Going around telling people I told you so is a great way to...not end up with anybody to tell I told you so. Or, you wind up with people saying it right back to you sooner or later.

IMO life is not a competition about who's right but about living the best you can and letting go of resentments that lead you to go around telling people I told you so.

But what do I know, maybe I have the attitude I do because Mike Oxlong.

bottom feeder in philly said...

I am A RE/MAX realtwhore. The majority of my work is commercial and investment, with some residential referal business thrown in. Back in the boom I would warn people things don't make sense. The rent to price ratios were out of wack. Only buy a property if it has fully leveraged cash flow. Now is not the time to be a novice investor, etc etc etc. I told 1 client to sit on his money for 2 years as things would be a lot cheaper and made more sense. Do you think anyone listened to me?? If I didn't think a deal made sense I wouldn't write the agreement, so many people found a realtor that would. Guess who these people are calling for help now?? Unfortunetly, other than possibly helping with a short sale, there is nothing I can do. Had these people heeded my advice they may have good deals available, but they forced themselves out of the market by following the sheep to slaughter. I sleep better at night knowing I wasn't their shepard. It's ironic that my phone wouldn't stop ringing 2/3 years ago, and now no one is interested. I am currently a buyer and bought a great 17 unit building at a 40% discount with only a 5% cash investment. The property has a 30k positive cash flow, and will be over 40k per year once I pay off the 2nd note in a few years. I'm hoping to buy some small distressed strip malls or office buildings in around 3 to 3 years when shit really hits the fan. Hopefully interest rates continue to climb so prices tank hard. It's better to buy a good building with a shitty loan than a bad building with a great loan. The buying opportunities of a lifetime are just around the corner, but invest wisely.

Anonymous said...

Kieth,

My barber did listen. He refinanced his home into a 30 year fixed from a 5 year arm before the shit hit and he still had equity. now he just has to contend with the fact that it's worth half it's value, which I did explain would happen. He is still happy with his decision because he can afford the payments and doesn't have to worry about a loan reset.

RayNLA

Anonymous said...

I too have had the experience that people who I had warned now claim they saw it all along (but did nothing). Bizarre.

Anonymous said...

it's dejavu all over again for me...all the same ones that didn't listen to before are saying it's all over and bottomed now.

Devestment said...

What do you mean? They won; they are portrayed as victims in an unpredictable scenario of wrong doing.

What was the motive? The Enlargement of Government? The government that promoted the debit through money creation and inflation without the benefit of real market supply/ demand interest rate changes now claims to be surprised at the outcome.

The government that concealed money creation numbers and allowed the expansion of currency through debit creation instead of savings? The government that eliminated backed currency through holding mining assets and promoting production. The government that wants your guns, your labor, your pledge?

The real solution is to pay the piper and feel the pain so that it does not happen again.

The price we pay for Big Brother to care for us is too high. Control, surveillance, propaganda, and socialized work programs are the things of Nazi Germany, not America.

Freedom does not consist of the illusion of freedom while living in servitude to taxes, regulation, and the status quo of media pumped conformity.

Freedom promotes right actions through education with cause and effect as implemented in the social setting, not the police state. Freedom promotes creativity and greatness through desire. Freedom is its own defense as those who are truly free and love their country have something they freely are willing to serve and die for. Freedom creates a society of people able to take care of and think for themselves. People able to make individual choices in regard to the topics of division.

Markus Arelius said...

I remember when I moved to OC California from Europe. I mentioned the "ridiculous local home prices" in relation to local incomes during a lunch meeting with colleagues. A senior colleague of mine said "just get an interest only loan" and you can afford the monthly payments.

I did not do this. I've been renting the same SF home for a 4th year.

People have shook there heads at me about renting. I don't care anymore.

If more Americans knew how Southern Californians really have been living the last 10 years (with Candyland HELOCs and 8 maxed out credit cards, leased SUVs and Lexuses, etc.) all prior to the $24 billion state budget deficit, they'd probably be grabbing their torches and pitchforks and marching on Irvine, LA and then Sacremento. Obama did us a favor by telling Cal to "pound sand" with respect to a federal bailout.

California's worst days are still ahead with respect to the housing market. Our incompetent legislature just passed an assinine "stay of execution" for foreclosures (another moratorium) which ensures further economic erosion and destruction.

This state is going to hell in a handbasket on so many levels (education, healthcare, investment, mfging, employment), people are starting to panic. Just last week, there were 10 new home SF listing where I live all of the sudden (It's summer!!!). All of them priced at $650K-$750K WTF asking prices!

msNJ said...

My husband wanted to buy a house in 2007. At the time we were renting and had about $450K in the bank plus his parents "gifted" us another $125K and I got a $100K loan because I had the good credit history.

He found exactly the home _he_ wanted (I hated the location) and we bought this two family in the NYC metro for $665K in June 2007. He said that the house "will only go up in value" when we bought it. He was also a total prick, an abuser and a brainwasher, so, long story short, we got divorced.

He wanted to keep the house in exchange for "letting" me "keep" the baby. I had just started reading HP when we were going through this shit, so I said YES PLEASE.

Now I am walking away with $50K cash and he is stuck with the house (located in a flood zone) and having to refinance the mortgage in his name, adding onto the original $100K the $75K in financing to pay me off and pay his lawyers. He is currently getting $1300 in rent from his tenant (who moved in a year ago) but if she moves out, I doubt he will be able to command as high a rent.

He put me through hell dragging out this divorce the past year and a half. I read yesterday that the NYC metro housing market is projected to fall 40% from its mid-2007 peak over the next 7 years...

I can't help but feel pretty happy about that...

Tried to warn him...

Anonymous said...

Great topic keith-

Me being in the business and seeing the problems right in front of me made me search for solutions and thats when I found your blog in 5/2006. I told friends and family and just about all of them thought I was a NEGATIVE person. People didn't want to know or didn't care until one day they were faced with the same problems I was having. NO ONE WANTED TO HEAR IT! They said things like you should be happy and stupid stuff like that. I was happy as far as my girl/car/living situation goes but I knew my livelyhood was in jeporady.

"One problem I found was that the sense of "I told you so" is so strong and cutting, that it's too embarrassing for my friends for me to bring it up now. "

I believe this to be the same thing with my friends too! I think noone wants to really give me credit but I know they know and they heard it first from me and that is all that matters. I said the same thing to the same people about GM too! Really noone cares as long as it doesn't affect them and who knows if it didn't affect me so early in the crisis I might have not search for solutions and found this very entertaining and informative site! thanks again

Rich in fl

Ron Paul is right! said...

I've been saying to my friends and family that the economy was built on sand for more than a decade. I've been crying to abolish the fed and IRS that entire time as well.

They used to say I was just a negative nellie. They have all called me a grump for years. Probably true, I am a bit dour but still maintain a good sense of humor. I am just unable to avoid seeing and living in reality.

Anyway, onto the current situation and what they say now. A couple have said "well if you cry for the economy to meltdown long enough, eventually you will be right". But most have ackowledged I was right and asked for investment advice or what I thought was going to happen next.

The frustrating thing is, even now after the market melted down, banks on the brink, etc, etc, much of my family and friends can't be bothered with big talks on economy. Whenever I bring it up, the conversation goes on for about 10 minutes until someone changes it. I've turned several friends and family onto this blog and others, none visit them that I know of. Luckily, my wonderful wife shares my interest at least a little bit and we have some very good discussions. And my mom is now a 100% Ron Paul backer and said she will vote for him in '12.

But everyone says I need to tone it down as life is too short and theres nothing we can do about it anyway. Enjoy your children and family more they say. And I am really taking their advice, although not consciously. I am getting less and less worked up by it all as time goes on. Life is too short and really, what does this accomplish? The people with all the $$$ will continue to buy the governement, continue to choose our presidents and elected officials for us, continue down this path no matter what we do anyway. All we are really doing is bitching and moaning. I suppose it's a good vent, but really nothing more.

Anonymous said...

"...the sense of "I told you so" is so strong and cutting, that it's too embarrassing...to bring it up now..."

It's a rather studied avoidance/autism, isn't it?

My only sentiment is Fuck You, you lying, self-indulgent shitbags; you can't even be honest with yourselves, let alone others.

SAY IT, BITCH.

"...When my husband comes home from work today—if he comes home...I’m wondering...what to say to him...."

Honesty's never been a priority before; why start now?

Just keep blaming him, sweetie. ;^D

Anonymous said...

Ross said...
It doesn't matter. This is not one I am going to brag about anymore.

People never learn and then they blame everyone else for their problems...


I too, will take advantage of people's party mentality for the next bubble. My plan is to build a condo/hotel tower, maybe like in Baja, Mexico or Panama City, Panama, and oversell the condos by thousands of units. Mysteriously, the project will go into bankruptcy and I will get to keep all the money without everyone knowing they bought the same unit as 20 other people. Maybe a few years down the road, I can sell the rights to a movie which will someday become a broadway hit and call it "The Developers."

Angry Leprechaun said...

I had a long conversation yesterday with someone who said to me three years ago that there was no housing scheme, ponzi schemes don’t exist and the government has full control on what is going on because of all the regulations involved, and everyone is entitled to the American Dream, and the government has full control of assuring that objective is met and everything is wonderful. I was insane at the time in her views that a financial meltdown was coming and because Clinton had placed regulations into effect everyone would enjoy homeownership. The liberal agenda had been done proudly. In fact she told me a year ago that housing was already turning around and I need to look at the numbers. NAR bullshit and false government statistics!
Well now it is a completely different scenario. She says and I quote, “We need more government and bureaucracies to assure that this does not happen again. We need more regulation. We need these things so the government can work effectively. The government needs more money. What difference does it make how big the government is as long as it works.” Her views are the epitome of the Obama supporter. She told me that states were not sovereign because the 10 amendment has an imminent domain clause. Therefore the federal government can impose whatever they want on the states. She does not get the fact the federal government can only act within the scope of the constitution and that all states have their own constitution that adopts the federal version in order to be part of the US, allowing the Federal Gov to hold the states accountable for what the Constitution says and nothing more. She challenged me by saying that with my line of thinking that I must be against such cases as Brown vs. the Board of Education. That is absurd. Life, liberty, equality for all is reason for the Federal Government involvement in Alabama.
We are on a dark path Keith. I don’t get why you don’t understand that you joined the opposite side. Talking to you is like talking to the people that disregarded what we were saying back in the HP days. It is like arguing with Greg Swan or Cooky Degroot. You are empowering a nanny state.
When I ask the people that disagreed with me a few years back and said I was delusional, they say I am delusional now. Thinks are rebounding. The ship has stopped sinking because bilge pump on board has started working again, although the ships passengers are still unaware that the bilge pump cannot keep up with the amount of water flowing in.

Angry Leprechaun said...

By the way, those who have listened to me, now have Ron Paul stickers on their cars.

Angry Leprechaun said...

"In all of these cases and MANY more that I know of, the people CAN AFFORD the payments, but just dont want to pay and as there is NO repercussion for this crooked behavior, WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE OF THIS!!!!!"

Let Obammy make it all beter for you.

Tundra Kat said...

When I warned my sister she said "Austin (Texas) is different."

When I warned my father, he thought it over and told some friends he was thinking of selling his house. A friend said they knew somebody who was looking and wound up selling the house at the top of the market without ever listing it.

will shill for coin said...

My sister bought a rental house in early 2007 and then another in 2008. Denver area.

I didn't hear a word about it until after the fact both times.

All else being equal, Case-Shiller indicates she lost 11 and 5.5% respectively. We're talking probably a 14k loss total. Not bad really, though her family lives on a budget and 14k isn't exactly small potatoes to them.

Fortunately the March index seemed to say that RE has stopped dropping in Denver, at least for now.

Anonymous said...

I have been on the fence about buying for years... I live in the suburbs outside of NYC, and the prices are still way too high as far as I can tell. I have an 11 month old baby, and the pressure I felt to buy a home was really tough. But now I have a decent amount of cash in the bank, and just waiting to see if the prices in my area are going to become affordable...

Anonymous said...

The average American is totally locked into the mainstream media mind control matrix. The mind control matrix focuses on the trite and the meaningless like Octomoms, Britney Spears and Jon and Kate.

When do you ever see real reporting on the situation in Iraq or Afghanistan? When do you see real questions asked about Osama Bin Laden and the legitimacy of the Global War on Terror? When do you see the kind of lively debate that we have here on Soot and Ashes?

You don't. Because it is propaganda and mind control. Mind control is not some mysterious form of mental telepathy. In it's simplest form it is simply repetition, distortion of facts, omission and controlling the boundaries of debate. The left/right party paradigm is an example of mind control that keep the debate within the narrow confines of the two party divide.

Unfortunately, this mass media and mass consumer society has created a population of mindless, consuming drones that are incapable of thinking independently.

william d said...

Leprechaun,

This is what's wrong with the world. Stupid people don't know they're stupid. And here we're talking about (I'm guessing) a very educated person (not everyone knows what the 10th amendment says).

Yet sadly, a complete idiot.

swannster river said...

>the mainstream media mind control matrix.

I think this is what they were actually referring to in that Keanu Reeves movie.

gutless and lazy said...

I don't talk about it anymore - cuz they dont want to hear about it. They get really pissed about the topic. It's a no-win situation. Between my selling the Pac Heights condo in early 2005 and then renting, and my selling the long equities portfolio in July 2007, no one likes hearing from a smarty pants, before, during or even after the crash.

Keep your friends and family happy - talk about how the Red Sox have swept the damn Yankees all season long.

Anonymous said...

>I believe this to be the same thing with my friends too! I think noone wants to really give me credit...

Because they're shallow, but they have plenty of company. I guess there's weight to that phrase "It takes a big man/woman to admit he was wrong".

duarte said...

They were right. If the recovery is underway and you see green shoots, then they were right. The general housing market turned down 20 percent for most. So what? For the others that lost more... Obama is printing money to keep the banks playing nice. Foreclosure is hardly going to matter on their credit because "everybody is doing it". They aren't stuck with that debt for the rest of their lives. They are just getting rid of it. For those that can't just dump the debt, inflation will get rid of it.
They win. We lose.

Unless, Keith is wrong and the panic isn't here yet.

Ross said...

Bottom Feeder,
You do not fit the definition of realtwhore. I know someone like you who works in real estate and she is priceless. I can't even get a hold of her anymore, she's so busy with short sales and trying to help all the people that wouldn't listen to her a couple years ago. Keep it up.

Stuck in So PA,
I CAN'T WAIT!! (Hopefully I won't turn in to one of the suckers!)

gutless and lazy said...

BTW: Found another yellow weed
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31446512

Actually there's LOTS of jobs, but they all just all moving to Asia.

Anonymous said...

>Since sheeple are determined to remain sheeple, it’s about time that I got mine!


That's a great line.

Anonymous said...

It was foretold. It was black and white. However,we are the losers. To the smart, the frugal, the sensible, the well educated, the thoughtful. I salute you all. We were right....but in the end we lost. The moral of the story....When the sheeple stampede...stampede with them. There's no place for free thinking. To my friends on this board....take solace that you are better. I hear my father in the background "a borrower or a lender, neither be". If you can afford it.....pay your bills. Teach your children the true (and worthless) power of money. Show financial discipline. Do not join the stampede. Let the sheeple be.

Anonymous said...

"...this is what they were actually referring to in that Keanu Reeves movie..."

Heh. "...these people are still a part of that system...most of these people are not ready to be unplugged...they will fight to protect it..."

TEN YEARS AGO and how right was it?

Banana Republicrat said...

Christmas dinner with the in-laws & their super-bourgeois Eurofriends, 2007:

BRC: "It is like the depression-- people are overextended with no hope of repaying their loans. These banks are making horrible loans, foisting them off as can't miss investments and nobody is minding the store!

This is going to be bad for lots and lots of people: pension funds, endowments, your retirement, hedge funds, anyone connected to anyone holding this bad debt is going to be wiped out."

FIL, MIL, et al: "Ha ha ha..."

I love them, but they missed the boat on that one. To add insult to injury they bought a third "investment property" McCrapbox two months later. Still trying to get us to buy in though and STILL expecting things to turn around any minute. Gotta love it.

Anonymous said...

my biggest advice now is "if you have an option arm...pony up the cash...and refinance NOW!!!!

they still want listen.

"meh...i still got two years on my ARM...think i'll see how it pans out...i can always sell it."

Anonymous said...

My mom listened, turned her stocks into treasuries, sold the family home at a tidy profit, and took back her paid up, rented out condo in a nice part of town well before the downturn. She's doing well. My brother didn't. He divorced last year shortly before the crash, and his wife took their home and he bought a new one of of his share of the equity. But he can afford that overpriced home in a nice part of San Francisco as long as he keeps his job. I think he has a better than 60 percent chance of keeping that job, and if so, inflation will lift his boat. I hope so, at any rate. Most of my colleagues still are in denial; a few of them listened, and are in better shape.

Anonymous said...

"...When the sheeple stampede...stampede with them..."

Good enough point.

I suggest trying to be toward the front of the pack when it starts(so that they push your position), and towards the rear some time later(preferably before the cliff and there are no suckers left to unload to.)

Anonymous said...

I just today ran into RE agent I hadn't seen since a party in '06. She is semi retired, 70ish, and sounds a lot like Bottom-feeder and Ross's friend.

We reminisced about being party killers. She and I (appraiser) were the only ones to disagree with majority that were all bragging on their refi values and what they were doing with their windfalls. We probably used words like absurd, insane, unsustainable to describe the market, then we were pretty much shunned and ostracized. The topper – we were the only ones at the party in the RE profession!

During this time I was doing a lot of comm work in res projects. I can almost repeat the BS spiel the developers would lay on me when I asked “just who is going to buy your 250 townhomes at $300K+?” Some developers started making sure their local loan officer did not send the job to us as we were being “too conservative” in pricing and absorption.

I remember another RE agent of the more typical kind that when finding out I was a renter looked at me like I was crazy and said "you are throwing your $$ away on rent, and as an appraiser you should know better". Insulting.

I’ve never told these idiots I told you so, and have never heard "you warned me, I should have listened".

Mike H. said...

I told my aunt this a few years ago as she owns 3 properties in Australia but she told me not to worry, as prices keep going up. Now she's silently suffering but her husband makes enough $$$ to keep paying the mortgages. Poor guys though.

I am thinking about buying a place in Palos Verdes Estates with a nice view of the Ocean and beach communities. How much longer do I have to wait... 1 or 2 years? I will wait until a choice property gets under $2 Million and then jump in I guess.

-Mike

Anonymous said...

Nobody listened to me. 100% laughed when I was loading gold at $500-600/oz. Now I laugh at them. Only one thing - why don't kill their 'suzannas', all those RE agents? I've heard about only one case in MI. Also, no legal action which is weird in this country.

Unfortunately I was an illegal immigrant at that time, I had no SS number and I couldn't flip houses. (I know how you hate illegals ;) ) Fortunately I had a plumbing company and I made a big buck on the speculation.

Now I am waiting for my US citizenship and after that I will leave the country. Isn't it crazy? First I wanted to live here and I had no papers and now I have papers and the place is bankrupting and I have to leave ...

And what really funny is ... Millions of Americans will have to leave States. They will be ILLEGAL immigrants in Europe. May be I will hire one of them at my gas station for silly 5E an hour? May be it will be you?

Miss Goldbug said...

I had a few, but here's the best one...

In 2005 Judy, the owner of a company where I worked invited some employees to enjoy a weekend of canoeing and hiking at her boyfriends cabin on Lake Alamador.

Sometime that first evening, the cabin owners brother drove from Washington state to visit, and to partisipate in the canoe races the following day.

I can't remember who mentioned it first, but after some small talk the topic natually gravitated to real estate. Remember, even strangers would openly discuss their own rising property values at the time...(strange, it's already past history).

What was facinating was this guy and I were on the same wave-length regarding the economy and the housing bubble. It was wonderful to have found someone who understood what was really happening- because up until this point, everyone my husband and I knew, believed the housing market would never drop.

The brother and I talked about how crazy lending had gotten, and how bad things were going to get. It was so refreshing to honestly discuss all the crazyness that was happening over the last 10 years. Well, my direct supervisor came over to see what we were discussing because she could tell we were in a deep conversation...

I realized I shouldnt have said it, but it was too late.

The brother and I told her the housing boom was out of control, and I mentioned housing was in a bubble, and that it would pop and the reaction would dwarf the Great Depression. The brother agreeded and told her so, but my supervisor looked at me as if I was from Mars...

When I saw her reaction, I could tell she didnt believe me, she coldly replied house prices would never come down because otherwise, it would create major problems.

The conversation pretty much ended on that note...never to be spoken of again.

Miss Goldbug said...

Anon said:"The average American is totally locked into the mainstream media mind control matrix."


Exactly. People listening to especially the news think they're getting true and accurate information, and won't consider other sources because they don't want their loyality threatened.

I've come to the conclusion, sheeple will always remain the same.